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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 a.m. EST, Wednesday, November 30, 2022

BEA 22–58

Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary), Third Quarter 2022

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6 percent. The second estimate primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased more than previously estimated (refer to "Updates to GDP").

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending, that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports decreased (table 2).

The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods and services. Within exports of goods, the leading contributors to the increase were industrial supplies and materials (notably nondurable goods), "other" exports of goods, and nonautomotive capital goods. Within exports of services, the increase was led by travel and "other" business services (mainly financial services).

Within consumer spending, an increase in services (led by health care and "other" services) was partly offset by a decrease in goods (led by motor vehicles and parts as well as food and beverages). Within nonresidential fixed investment, increases in equipment and intellectual property products were partly offset by a decrease in structures. The increase in state and local government spending was led by increases in compensation of state and local government employees and investment in structures. The increase in federal government spending was led by defense spending.

The decrease in residential fixed investment was led by new single-family construction and brokers' commissions. Within private inventory investment, the decrease was led by retail trade (mainly clothing and accessory stores as well as "other" retailers). Within imports, a decrease in imports of goods (notably consumer goods) was partly offset by an increase in imports of services (mainly travel).

Real GDP turned up in the third quarter, increasing 2.9 percent after decreasing 0.6 percent in the second quarter. The upturn primarily reflected a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, and upturns in federal as well as state and local government spending that were partly offset by a larger decrease in residential fixed investment and a deceleration in consumer spending. Imports turned down.

Current‑dollar GDP increased 7.3 percent at an annual rate, or $450.5 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $25.7 trillion (table 1 and table 3), an upward revision of $35.7 billion from the previous estimate. More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file on BEA's website.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 4.7 percent in the third quarter (table 4), an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The PCE price index increased 4.3 percent, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.6 percent, also revised up 0.1 percentage point.

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income increased $291.3 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $0.1 billion from the previous estimate. The increase primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries) and personal interest income (table 8).

Disposable personal income increased $235.8 billion, or 5.2 percent, in the third quarter, a downward revision of $32.6 billion from the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income increased 0.9 percent, a downward revision of 0.8 percentage point.

Personal saving was $520.6 billion in the third quarter, a downward revision of $67.6 billiion from the previous estimate. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 2.8 percent in the third quarter, a downward revision of 0.5 percentage point.

Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.3 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.8 percent in the second quarter (revised). The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.6 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.7 percent (revised) in the second quarter (table 1).

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $31.6 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $131.6 billion in the second quarter (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $32.9 billion in the third quarter, compared with a decrease of $46.0 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $6.1 billion, compared with an increase of $152.2 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $4.7 billion, in contrast to an increase of $25.5 billion. In the third quarter, receipts increased $3.1 billion, and payments increased $7.8 billion.

Updates to GDP

With the second estimate, upward revisions to consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and exports were partly offset by downward revisions to private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending. Imports decreased more than previously estimated. For more information, refer to the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the "Additional Information" section that follows.

	Advance Estimate	Second Estimate
	(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP	2.6	2.9
Current-dollar GDP	6.7	7.3
Real GDI	…	0.3
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI	…	1.6
Gross domestic purchases price index	4.6	4.7
PCE price index	4.2	4.3
PCE price index excluding food and energy	4.5	4.6

Updates to Second-Quarter Wages and Salaries

In addition to presenting updated estimates for the third quarter, today's release presents revised estimates of second-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance, based on updated data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $132.5 billion in the second quarter, a downward revision of $50.4 billion. Personal current taxes are now estimated to have increased $43.0 billion, a downward revision of $9.4 billion. Contributions for government social insurance are now estimated to have increased $19.7 billion, a downward revision of $6.5 billion. With the incorporation of these new data, real gross domestic income is now estimated to have decreased 0.8 percent in the second quarter, a downward revision of 0.9 percentage point from the previously published estimate.

* * *

Next release, December 22, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. EST
Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate)
Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate)
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Third Quarter 2022

* * *

Release Dates in 2023
Estimate	2022 Q4 and Year 2022	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3
Gross Domestic Product
Advance Estimate	January 26, 2023	April 27, 2023	July 27, 2023	October 26, 2023
Second Estimate	February 23, 2023	May 25, 2023	August 30, 2023	November 29, 2023
Third Estimate	March 30, 2023	June 29, 2023	September 28, 2023	December 21, 2023

Gross Domestic Product by Industry	March 30, 2023	June 29, 2023	September 28, 2023	December 21, 2023

Corporate Profits
Preliminary Estimate	---	May 25, 2023	August 30, 2023	November 29, 2023
Revised Estimate	March 30, 2023	June 29, 2023	September 28, 2023	December 21, 2023

Full Release & Tables (PDF)

Technical Note (PDF)

Tables Only (Excel)

Release Highlights (PDF)

Historical Comparisons (PDF)

Key source data and assumptions (Excel)

Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures (PDF)

Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures (Excel)

Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income (PDF)

Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income (Excel)

How are state refundable tax credits recorded in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs)?

Revision Information

GDP

Karl Rohrer

(301) 278-9083

gdpniwd@bea.gov

Corporate Profits

Kate Pinard

301-278-9417

cpniwd@bea.gov

Media

Connie O’Connell

301-278-9003

Connie.OConnell@bea.gov

Resources

Additional resources available at www.bea.gov:

The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in these statistics because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more Information about COVID-19 impacts, refer to Federal Recovery Programs and BEA Statistics on our website.
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NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Gross domestic product (GDP), or value added, is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment.

Gross domestic income (GDI) is the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP. In national economic accounting, GDP and GDI are conceptually equal. In practice, GDP and GDI differ because they are constructed using largely independent source data.

Gross output is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy. It is principally measured using industry sales or receipts, including sales to final users (GDP) and sales to other industries (intermediate inputs).

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at "market value." Also referred to as "nominal estimates" or as "current-price estimates."

Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

The gross domestic purchases price index measures the prices of final goods and services purchased by U.S. residents.

The personal consumption expenditure price index measures the prices paid for the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, "persons."

Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

Disposable personal income is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes.

Personal outlays is the sum of personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.

Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.

The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.

Profits from current production, referred to as corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption (CCAdj) adjustment in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs), is a measure of the net income of corporations before deducting income taxes that is consistent with the value of goods and services measured in GDP. The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic measures used in the national income and product accounts. Profits for domestic industries reflect profits for all corporations located within the geographic borders of the United States. The rest-of-the-world (ROW) component of profits is measured as the difference between profits received from ROW and profits paid to ROW.

For more definitions, refer to the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.

Statistical conventions

Annual-vs-quarterly rates. Quarterly seasonally adjusted values are expressed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified. This convention is used for BEA's featured, seasonally adjusted measures to facilitate comparisons with related and historical data. For details, refer to the FAQ "Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?" Quarterly not seasonally adjusted values are expressed only at quarterly rates.

Percent changes. Percent changes in quarterly seasonally adjusted series are displayed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified. For details, refer to the FAQ "How is average annual growth calculated?" and "Why does BEA publish percent changes in quarterly series at annual rates?" Percent changes in quarterly not seasonally adjusted values are calculated from the same quarter one year ago. All published percent changes are calculated from unrounded data.

Calendar years and quarters. Unless noted otherwise, annual and quarterly data are presented on a calendar basis.

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or "real" volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). For details on the calculation of quantity and price indexes, refer to Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook.

Chained-dollar values are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2012) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a "residual" line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.

Updates to GDP

BEA releases three vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP: "Advance" estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available.

The table below shows the average revisions to the quarterly percent changes in real GDP between different estimate vintages, without regard to sign.

Vintage	Average Revision Without Regard to Sign (percentage points, annual rates)
Advance to second	0.5
Advance to third	0.6
Second to third	0.3
Note - Based on estimates from 1996 through 2021. For more information on GDP updates, refer to Revision Information on the BEA Website.

Annual and comprehensive updates are released in late September. Annual updates generally cover at least the 5 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts. Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.

Unlike GDP, advance current quarterly estimates of GDI and corporate profits are not released because data on domestic profits and on net interest of domestic industries are not available. For fourth quarter estimates, these data are not available until the third estimate.

GDP by industry and gross output estimates are released with the third estimate of GDP.