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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, FRIDAY, MARCH 29, 2019

BEA 19-13

Personal Income, February 2019; Personal Outlays, January 2019

Due to the recent partial government shutdown, this report combines estimates for January and February 2019. January estimates include both personal income and outlays measures, while February estimates are limited to personal income. Estimates of outlays for February will be available with the next release on April 29, 2019.

Personal Income and Outlays, January 2019

Personal income decreased $22.9 billion (-0.1 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income decreased $34.9 billion (-0.2 percent), and personal consumption expenditures increased $8.6 billion (0.1 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in January, and real PCE increased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

The decrease in January personal income primarily reflected decreases in personal dividend income, farm proprietors’ income, and personal interest income that were partially offset by increases in social security benefit payments (related to cost of living adjustments) and other government social benefits to persons, which includes the Child Tax Credit and the Affordable Care Act refundable tax credit.

In January, real PCE increased $15.6 billion which reflected a $20.8 billion increase in spending for services that was partially offset by a decrease of $7.7 billion in spending for goods (table 7). Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for financial services and insurance. Within goods, new motor vehicles was the leading contributor to the decrease. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found in Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $6.3 billion in January (table 3). Personal saving was $1.19 trillion in January and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 7.5 percent (table 1).

Personal Income, February 2019

Personal income increased $42.0 billion (0.2 percent) in February. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $31.3 billion (0.2 percent); Real DPI is unavailable for February.

The increase in personal income in February primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries, government social benefits to persons, and proprietors’ income that were partially offset by a decrease in personal interest income.

	2018			2019
	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.
	Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:
Current dollars	0.5	0.3	1.0	-0.1	0.2
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	0.6	0.3	1.1	-0.2	0.2
Chained (2012) dollars	0.4	0.3	1.0	-0.2	...
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars	0.6	0.5	-0.6	0.1	...
Chained (2012) dollars	0.4	0.4	-0.6	0.1	...
Price indexes:
PCE	0.2	0.1	0.1	-0.1	...
PCE, excluding food and energy	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	...
Price indexes:	Percent change from month one year ago
PCE	2.0	1.8	1.8	1.4	...
PCE, excluding food and energy	1.8	1.9	2.0	1.8	...

2018 Personal Income and Outlays

Personal income (table 6) increased 4.5 percent in 2018, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in 2017. DPI increased 5.0 percent in 2018 compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in 2017. In 2018, PCE increased 4.7 percent, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent in 2017.

Real DPI increased 2.9 percent in 2018, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in 2017. In 2018, real PCE (table 8) increased 2.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in 2017.

Next release: April 29, 2019 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
Personal Income & Outlays March 2019

Full Release & Tables (PDF)

Tables Only (Excel)

Release Highlights (PDF)

Historical Comparison (PDF)

Personal Income

James Rankin

(301) 278-9087

piniwd@bea.gov

PCE Goods

Kyle Brown

301-278-9086

pce@bea.gov

Media

Connie O'Connell

301-278-9003

Connie.OConnell@bea.gov

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NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

Disposable personal income is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, "persons" who reside in the United States.

Personal outlays is the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.

Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.

The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at "market value." Also referred to as "nominal estimates" or as "current-price estimates."

Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.

Statistical conventions

Annual rates. Monthly and quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For detail, see the FAQ "Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?"

Month-to-month percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized.

Quarter-to-quarter percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual rates. For detail, see the FAQ "How is average annual growth calculated?"

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or "real" volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (months for monthly data, quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). For details on the calculation of quantity and price indexes, see Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook.

Chained-dollar values are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2012) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a "residual" line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.

List of Personal Income and Outlays News Release Tables

Table 1. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Months)

Table 2. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Years and Quarters)

Table 3. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period (Months)

Table 4. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period (Years and Quarters)

Table 5. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change From Preceding Period (Months)

Table 6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change From Preceding Period (Years and Quarters)

Table 7. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Months)

Table 8. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Years and Quarters)

Table 9. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Level and Percent Change From Preceding Period (Months)

Table 10. Real Disposable Personal Income and Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change From Month One Year Ago

Table 11. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change From Month One Year Ago