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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, FRIDAY, MARCH 1, 2019

BEA 19—06

Personal Income and Outlays, December 2018; Personal Income, January 2019

Due to the recent partial government shutdown, this report combines estimates for December 2018 and January 2019. December estimates include both income and outlays measures, while January estimates are limited to personal income. Estimates of outlays for January are unavailable due to a delay in the release of the Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Retail Sales.

Personal Income and Outlays, December 2018

Personal income increased $179.0 billion (1.0 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income increased $173.1 billion (1.1 percent), and personal consumption expenditures decreased $76.6 billion (-0.5 percent).

Real DPI increased 1.0 percent in December and real PCE decreased 0.6 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

The increase in personal income in December primarily reflected increases in personal dividend income, compensation of employees, and farm proprietors’ income (table 3). Personal dividend income increased $83.4 billion, primarily reflecting a one-time special dividend payment by VMware Incorporated. Farm proprietors’ income increased $29.2 billion, which included subsidy payments associated with the Department of Agriculture’s Market Facilitation Program.

In December, real PCE decreased $77.9 billion which reflected a decrease of $67.2 billion in spending for goods and a $18.2 billion decrease in spending for services (table 7). Within goods, recreational goods and vehicles was the leading contributor to the decrease. Within services, the largest contributor to the decrease was spending for household electricity and gas. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found in Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays decreased $71.3 billion in December (table 3). Personal saving rose to $1.21 trillion in December and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 7.6 percent (table 1)

Personal Income, January 2019

Personal income decreased $23.8 billion (-0.1 percent) in January. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $35.1 billion (-0.2 percent); Real DPI is unavailable for January.

The decrease in personal income in January primarily reflected decreases in personal dividend income, farm proprietors’ income, and personal interest income that were partially offset by increases in social security benefit payments (related to cost of living adjustments), and other government social benefits to persons, which includes the Child Tax Credit and the Affordable Care Act refundable tax credit.

	2018				2019
	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.
	Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:
Current dollars	0.2	0.5	0.3	1.0	-0.1
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	0.2	0.6	0.3	1.1	-0.2
Chained (2012) dollars	0.1	0.4	0.2	1.0	...
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars	0.1	0.7	0.6	-0.5	...
Chained (2012) dollars	0.0	0.5	0.5	-0.6	...
Price indexes:
PCE	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.1	...
PCE, excluding food and energy	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	...
Price indexes:	Percent change from month one year ago
PCE	2.0	2.0	1.8	1.7	...
PCE, excluding food and energy	2.0	1.8	1.9	1.9	...

QCEW Data Included in the Third Quarter of 2018

This news release includes revised estimates of wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance for July through September 2018 (third quarter). These estimates reflect the incorporation of newly available third-quarter wage and salary tabulations from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program.

2018 Personal Income and Outlays

Personal income (table 6) increased 4.5 percent in, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in 2017. DPI increased 5.0 percent in 2018 compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in 2017. In 2018, PCE increased 4.7 percent, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent in 2017.

Real DPI increased 2.9 percent in 2018, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in 2017. Real PCE (table 8) increased 2.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in 2017.

Next release: March 29, 2019 at 8:30 A.M. EDT

Personal Income February 2019; Personal Outlays January 2019

Full Release & Tables (PDF)

Tables Only (Excel)

Release Highlights (PDF)

Historical Comparison (PDF)

Personal Income

Brian Smith

(301) 278-9625

piniwd@bea.gov

PCE Goods

Kyle Brown

301-278-9086

pce@bea.gov

News Media

Jeannine Aversa

(301) 278-9003

Jeannine.Aversa@bea.gov

Resources

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Historical time series for these estimates can be accessed in BEA’s Interactive Data Application.
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For more on BEA’s statistics, see our monthly online journal, the Survey of Current Business.
BEA's news release schedule
NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

Disposable personal income is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons” who reside in the United States.

Personal outlays is the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.

Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.

The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”

Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.

Statistical conventions

Annual rates. Monthly and quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?”

Month-to-month percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized.

Quarter-to-quarter percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual rates. For detail, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?”

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (months for monthly data, quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). For details on the calculation of quantity and price indexes, see Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook.

Chained-dollar values are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2012) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a "residual" line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.

List of Personal Income and Outlays News Release Tables

Table 1. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Months)

Table 2. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Years and Quarters)

Table 3. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period (Months)

Table 4. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period (Years and Quarters)

Table 5. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change From Preceding Period (Months)

Table 6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change From Preceding Period (Years and Quarters)

Table 7. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Months)

Table 8. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Years and Quarters)

Table 9. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Level and Percent Change From Preceding Period (Months)

Table 10. Real Disposable Personal Income and Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change From Month One Year Ago

Table 11. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change From Month One Year Ago