Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011
(that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 1.8 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page
4). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on
February 29, 2012.
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from private
inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, residential fixed investment,
and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal
government spending and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the
calculation of GDP, increased.
The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private
inventory investment and accelerations in PCE and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset
by a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, a downturn in federal government spending, an
acceleration in imports, and a larger decrease in state and local government spending.
_________________
FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted
annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2005)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEAs Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights
related to this release.
_________________
Final sales of computers added 0.18 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP
after adding 0.22 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Motor vehicle output added 0.30
percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.12 percentage point to the
third-quarter change.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the third.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.0 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the third.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of 1.7 percent in the third. Durable goods increased 14.8 percent, compared with an
increase of 5.7 percent. Nondurable goods increased 1.7 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.5
percent. Services increased 0.2 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with
an increase of 15.7 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures decreased 7.2 percent, in contrast to an
increase of 14.4 percent. Equipment and software increased 5.2 percent, compared with an increase of
16.2 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 10.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3
percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 4.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the same increase
as in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of 1.2 percent in the third.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 7.3 percent
in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.1 percent in the third. National defense decreased
12.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 5.0 percent. Nondefense increased 4.2 percent, in contrast to a
decrease of 3.8 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 2.6 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.6 percent.
The change in real private inventories added 1.94 percentage points to the fourth-quarter change
in real GDP after subtracting 1.35 percentage points from the third-quarter change. Private businesses
increased inventories $56.0 billion in the fourth quarter, following a decrease of $2.0 billion in the third
quarter and an increase of $39.1 billion in the second.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 0.8
percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the third.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the
third.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $82.6 billion (2.6 percent) in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of $24.3 billion (0.8 percent) in the third.
Personal current taxes increased $40.0 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of
$12.3 billion in the third.
Disposable personal income increased $42.7 billion (1.5 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of $11.9 billion (0.4 percent) in the third. Real disposable personal income increased
0.8 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.9 percent.
Personal outlays increased $69.9 billion (2.5 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of $112.0 billion (4.1 percent) in the third. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less
personal outlays -- was $429.3 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $456.5 billion in the third.
The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 3.7 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with 3.9 percent in the third. For a comparison of personal saving in
BEAs national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Boards flow
of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
3.2 percent, or $118.2 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $15,294.3 billion. In the third quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 4.4 percent, or $163.3 billion.
2011 GDP
Real GDP increased 1.7 percent in 2011 (that is, from the 2010 annual level to the 2011 annual
level), compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in 2010.
The increase in real GDP in 2011 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by
negative contributions from state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and
federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP in 2011 primarily reflected downturns in private inventory
investment and in federal government spending and a deceleration in exports that were partly offset by a
deceleration in imports and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.5 percent in 2011, compared with an
increase of 1.5 percent in 2010.
Current-dollar GDP increased 3.9 percent, or $561.2 billion, in 2011, compared with an increase
of 4.2 percent, or $587.5 billion, in 2010.
During 2011 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2011),
real GDP increased 1.6 percent. Real GDP increased 3.1 percent during 2010. The price index for gross
domestic purchases increased 2.5 percent during 2011, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent during
2010.
________________
BOX. Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is
provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy."
________________
* * *
BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the
site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
* * *
Next release -- February 29, 2012, at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2011 (Second Estimate)
Release dates in 2012
Gross Domestic Product
11: IV and 2011 annual 2012: I 2012: II 2012: III
Advance... January 27 April 27 July 27 October 26
Second.... February 29 May 31 August 29 November 29
Third..... March 29 June 28 September 27 December 20
Corporate Profits
Preliminary... ... May 31 August 29 November 29
Revised....... March 29 June 28 September 27 December 20
