Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010,
(that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page
4). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on
February 25, 2011.
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly
offset by a negative contribution from private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in
the calculation of GDP, decreased.
The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a sharp downturn in
imports, an acceleration in PCE, and an upturn in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by
downturns in private inventory investment and in federal government spending and a deceleration in
nonresidential fixed investment.
Final sales of computers added 0.31 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP
after adding 0.29 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Motor vehicle output subtracted 0.34
percentage point from the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.49 percentage point to the
third-quarter change.
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FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. Real estimates are in chained (2005)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEAs Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights
related to this release.
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The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in the third.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.1 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in the third.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of 2.4 percent in the third. Durable goods increased 21.6 percent, compared with an
increase of 7.6 percent. Nondurable goods increased 5.0 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5
percent. Services increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with
an increase of 10.0 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures increased 0.8 percent, in contrast to a
decrease of 3.5 percent. Equipment and software increased 5.8 percent, compared with an increase of
15.4 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 3.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 27.3
percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 8.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of 6.8 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services decreased 13.6 percent, in
contrast to an increase of 16.8 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.2 percent
in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 8.8 percent in the third. National defense decreased
2.0 percent, in contrast to an increase of 8.5 percent. Nondefense increased 3.7 percent, compared with
an increase of 9.5 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 0.9 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.7 percent.
The change in real private inventories subtracted 3.70 percentage points from the fourth-quarter
change in real GDP after adding 1.61 percentage points to the third-quarter change. Private businesses
increased inventories $7.2 billion in the fourth quarter, following increases of $121.4 billion in the third
quarter and $68.8 billion in the second.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 7.1
percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent in the third.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- decreased 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 4.2 percent in the
third.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $128.3 billion (4.1 percent) in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of $75.7 billion (2.4 percent) in the third.
Personal current taxes increased $28.7 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of
$28.6 billion in the third.
Disposable personal income increased $99.6 billion (3.5 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of $47.1 billion (1.7 percent) in the third. Real disposable personal income increased
1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent.
Personal outlays increased $152.6 billion (5.8 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of $72.6 billion (2.8 percent) in the third. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less
personal outlays -- was $625.8 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $678.7 billion in the third.
The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.4 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with 5.9 percent in the third. For a comparison of personal saving in
BEAs national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Boards flow
of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to /national/nipaweb/Nipa-
Frb.asp.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
3.4 percent, or $125.3 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $14,870.4 billion. In the third quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 4.6 percent, or $166.4 billion.
2010 GDP
Real GDP increased 2.9 percent in 2010 (that is, from the 2009 annual level to the 2010 annual
level), in contrast to a decrease of 2.6 percent in 2009.
The increase in real GDP in 2010 primarily reflected positive contributions from private
inventory investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed
investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of
GDP, increased.
The upturn in real GDP primarily reflected upturns in exports, in nonresidential fixed
investment, in PCE, and in private inventory investment and a smaller decrease in residential fixed
investment that were partly offset by an upturn in imports.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.3 percent in 2010, in contrast to a
decrease of 0.2 percent in 2009.
Current-dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent, or $540.2 billion, in 2010. In contrast, current-dollar
GDP decreased 1.7 percent, or $250.1 billion, in 2009.
During 2010 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2010),
real GDP increased 2.8 percent. Real GDP increased 0.2 percent during 2009. The price index for gross
domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent during 2010, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent during
2009.
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BOX.--
Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy."
___________________
BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the
site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
* * *
Next release -- February 25, 2011, at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2010 (Second Estimate)
Release dates in 2011
Gross Domestic Product
10: IV and 2010 annual 2011: I 2011: II 2011: III
Advance... January 28 April 28 July 29 October 27
Second.... February 25 May 26 August 26 November 22
Third..... March 25 June 24 September 29 December 22
Corporate Profits
Preliminary... ... May 26 August 26 November 22
Revised....... March 25 June 24 September 29 December 22
