GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 2009 (ADVANCE ESTIMATE)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009,
(that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page
4). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on
February 26, 2010.
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
private inventory investment, exports, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which
are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in private
inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment that
were partly offset by decelerations in federal government spending and in PCE.
Motor vehicle output added 0.61 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after
adding 1.45 percentage points to the third-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.03
percentage point from the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.08 percentage point
from the third-quarter change.
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FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. Real estimates are in chained (2005)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEAs Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights
related to this release.
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The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the third.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in the third.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of 2.8 percent in the third. Durable goods decreased 0.9 percent, in contrast to an
increase of 20.4 percent. Nondurable goods increased 4.3 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5
percent. Services increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 5.9 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures decreased 15.4 percent, compared with a
decrease of 18.4 percent. Equipment and software increased 13.3 percent, compared with an increase of
1.5 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 5.7 percent, compared with an increase of 18.9
percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 18.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with
an increase of 17.8 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 10.5 percent,
compared with an increase of 21.3 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.1 percent
in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 8.0 percent in the third. National defense decreased
3.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 8.4 percent. Nondefense increased 8.1 percent, compared with
an increase of 7.0 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 0.3 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.6 percent.
The change in real private inventories added 3.39 percentage points to the fourth-quarter change
in real GDP after adding 0.69 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Private businesses decreased
inventories $33.5 billion in the fourth quarter, following decreases of $139.2 billion in the third quarter
and $160.2 billion in the second.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 2.2
percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the third.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 5.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in the
third.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $119.2 billion (4.0 percent) in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of $35.1 billion (1.2 percent) in the third.
Personal current taxes decreased $11.7 billion in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of
$3.5 billion in the third.
Disposable personal income increased $130.8 billion (4.8 percent) in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of $31.6 billion (1.2 percent) in the third. Real disposable personal income
increased 2.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.4 percent.
Personal outlays increased $109.0 billion (4.2 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of $132.3 billion (5.2 percent) in the third. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less
personal outlays -- was $516.9 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $495.0 billion in the third.
The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 4.6 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with 4.5 percent in the third. For a comparison of personal saving in
BEAs national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Boards flow
of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to /national/nipaweb/Nipa-
Frb.asp.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
6.4 percent, or $221.3 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $14,463.4 billion. In the third quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 2.6 percent, or $90.9 billion.
2009 GDP
Real GDP decreased 2.4 percent in 2009 (that is, from the 2008 annual level to the 2009 annual
level), in contrast to an increase of 0.4 percent in 2008.
The decrease in real GDP in 2009 primarily reflected negative contributions from nonresidential
fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), that were partly offset by positive contributions from federal
government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
The downturn in real GDP primarily reflected downturns in nonresidential fixed investment and
in exports and a larger decrease in private inventory investment that were partly offset by a larger
decrease in imports and a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.1 percent in 2009, compared with an
increase of 3.2 percent in 2008.
Current-dollar GDP decreased 1.3 percent, or $182.7 billion, in 2009. Current-dollar GDP
increased 2.6 percent, or $363.8 billion, in 2008.
During 2009 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter 2009), real
GDP increased 0.1 percent. Real GDP decreased 1.9 percent during 2008. The price index for gross
domestic purchases increased 0.6 percent during 2009, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent during
2008.
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BOX.
Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy."
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* * *
BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the
site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
* * *
Next release February 26, 2010, at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2009 (Second Estimate)
Release dates in 2010
Gross Domestic Product
2009: IV and 2009 annual 2010: I 2010: II 2010: III
Advance January 29 April 30 July 30 October 29
Second.. February 26 May 27 August 27 November 23
Third. March 26 June 25 September 30 December 22
Corporate Profits
Preliminary... ........... May 27 August 27 November 23
Revised....... March 26 June 25 September 30 December 22
