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The tables from this news release are available in XLS format and the entire release is available in PDF format.
Also available: a brief summary of highlights.
Effects of the Third-Quarter Hurricanes on Income Measures
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Teresa L. Weadock: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) BEA 04-61
Greg Key: (202) 606-9727 (Profits)
Recorded message: (202) 606-5306
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: THIRD QUARTER 2004 (FINAL)
CORPORATE PROFITS: THIRD QUARTER 2004 (REVISED)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the third quarter of 2004,
according to revised estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real
GDP increased 3.3 percent.
The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for
the preliminary estimates issued last month. In the preliminary estimates, the increase in real GDP was
3.9 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).
The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the third quarter were personal consumption
expenditures (PCE), equipment and software, exports, government spending, and residential fixed
investment. The contributions of these components were partly offset by a negative contribution from
private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in
PCE and a deceleration in imports that were partly offset by a downturn in private inventory investment
and a deceleration in residential fixed investment.
Final sales of computers contributed 0.18 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP
after contributing less than 0.01 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Motor vehicle output
contributed 0.34 percentage point to the third quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.58
percentage point from the second-quarter change.
FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2000)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA's Web site at <www.bea.gov/newsreleases/rels.htm>
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.9 percent in the third quarter, 0.1 percentage point more than the preliminary estimate; this
index increased 3.5 percent in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for
gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5
percent in the second.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 5.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with
an increase of 1.6 percent in the second. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 13.0 percent,
compared with an increase of 12.5 percent. Nonresidential structures decreased 1.1 percent, in contrast
to an increase of 6.9 percent. Equipment and software increased 17.5 percent, compared with an
increase of 14.2 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 1.6 percent, compared with an
increase of 16.5 percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 6.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an
increase of 7.3 percent in the second. Real imports of goods and services increased 4.6 percent,
compared with an increase of 12.6 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 4.8 percent in
the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent in the second. National defense increased
10.1 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent. Nondefense decreased 5.3 percent, in contrast
to an increase of 4.4 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 1.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.9 percent.
The real change in private inventories subtracted 0.97 percentage point from the third-quarter
change in real GDP after adding 0.78 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Private businesses
increased inventories $34.5 billion in the third quarter, following increases of $61.1 billion in the second
quarter and $40.0 billion in the first.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 5.0
percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the second.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 3.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 4.2 percent in the
second.
Gross national product
Real gross national product -- the goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied
by U.S. residents -- increased 4.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent
in the second. GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of income from the rest of the world,
which increased $1.6 billion in the third quarter after decreasing $35.3 billion in the second; in the third
quarter, receipts increased $15.7 billion, and payments increased $14.1 billion.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
5.5 percent, or $157.4 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $11,814.9 billion. In the second quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 6.6 percent, or $184.9 billion.
Revisions
The final estimate of the third-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.1 percentage point, or $1.3 billion,
higher than the preliminary estimate issued last month. The upward revision to the percentage change in
real GDP primarily reflected a downward revision to imports that was partly offset by a downward
revision to state and local government spending.
Advance Preliminary Final
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP................................ 3.7 3.9 4.0
Current-dollar GDP...................... 5.1 5.3 5.5
Gross domestic purchases price index.... 1.8 1.8 1.9
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments) decreased $55.9 billion in the third quarter. In the second quarter, profits
increased $8.3 billion. Current-production cash flow (net cash flow with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments) -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- decreased
$1.6 billion in the third quarter, compared with a decrease of $5.7 billion in the second.
Third-quarter profits from current production were reduced by $79.7 billion dollars because of
Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. Benefits paid by domestic insurance companies reduced
profits by $69.3 billion. In addition, corporate profits were reduced by $10.4 billion for uninsured
losses.
Taxes on corporate income decreased $17.9 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase
of $14.7 billion in the second. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments decreased $38.0 billion in the third quarter, after decreasing $6.4 billion in the second.
Dividends increased $10.8 billion, compared with an increase of $9.8 billion; current-production
undistributed profits decreased $48.8 billion, compared with a decrease of $16.2 billion.
Domestic profits decreased $59.3 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $28.3
billion in the second. Domestic profits of financial corporations decreased $68.7 billion in the third
quarter, compared with a decrease of $7.9 billion in the second. Domestic profits of nonfinancial
corporations increased $9.4 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $36.2 billion in the
second. In the third quarter, real gross value added increased, and profits per unit of real gross value
added were unchanged. Prices corporations received were also unchanged, and an increase in nonlabor
costs was offset by a decrease in labor costs.
The foreign component of profits (rest-of-the-world profits) increased $3.4 billion in the third
quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $20.0 billion in the second. This measure is calculated as (1)
receipts by U.S. residents of earnings from their foreign affiliates plus dividends received by U.S.
residents from unaffiliated foreign corporations minus (2) payments by U.S. affiliates of earnings to
their foreign parents plus dividends paid by U.S. corporations to unaffiliated foreign residents. The
third-quarter increase was accounted for by a larger increase in receipts than in payments.
The revised estimates of third-quarter corporate profits from current production is $28.3 billion
lower than the preliminary estimate issued last month. Domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations
and the foreign component of profits (rest-of-the-world profits) were revised down $0.8 billion and $5.4
billion, respectively. Domestic profits of financial corporations was revised down $22.0 billion.
Profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment is the best available measure of industry
profits because estimates of the capital consumption adjustment by industry do not exist. This measure
reflects the depreciation-accounting practices used for federal income tax returns. According to this
measure, domestic profits of financial corporations decreased, and domestic profits of nonfinancial
corporations increased. The increases in profits of nonfinancial corporations were largest in "other"
nonfinancial, in manufacturing, in wholesale trade, and in information. Profits decreased in retail trade,
in transportation and warehousing, and in utilities.
Profits before tax decreased $55.5 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $25.9
billion in the second. The before-tax measure of profits does not reflect, as does profits from current
production, the capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. These adjustments convert
depreciation of fixed assets and inventory withdrawals reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to
the current-cost measures used in the national income and product accounts. The capital consumption
adjustment decreased $10.3 billion in the third quarter (from $233.3 billion to $223.0 billion), compared
with a decrease of $6.9 billion in the second. The inventory valuation adjustment increased $10.0
billion (from -$47.8 billion to -$37.8 billion), in contrast to a decrease of $10.8 billion.
BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current
Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site:
<www.bea.gov>
Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the
following telephone numbers:
(202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product
(202) 606-5303 Personal income and outlays
(202) 606-5362 U.S. international transactions
Most of BEA's estimates and analyses are published in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's
monthly journal. Subscriptions and single copies of the printed Survey are for sale by the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: <bookstore.gpo.gov>;
phone: 202-512-1800; fax: 202-512-2250; mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001.
* * *
Next release -- January 28, 2005, at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2004 (Advance)
Release dates in 2005
Gross domestic product
2004: IV and 2004 annual 2005:I 2005:II 2005:III
Advance....... January 28 April 28 July 29 October 28
Preliminary... February 25 May 26 August 31 November 30
Final......... March 30 June 29 September 29 December 21
Corporate Profits
Preliminary... .... May 26 August 31 November 30
Final.......... March 30 June 29 September 29 December 21
Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). .8 1.9 3.0 2.1 -.5 1.2 -1.4 1.6 3.4 2.4 2.6 .7 1.9 4.1 7.4 4.2 4.5 3.3 4.0
Personal consumption expenditures... 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.4 1.7 1.0 1.8 7.0 1.8 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.7 3.9 5.0 3.6 4.1 1.6 5.1
Durable goods..................... 4.3 6.5 7.4 .7 6.7 -.3 3.1 37.4 -8.5 4.4 14.0 -2.4 -.1 20.6 16.5 3.9 2.2 -.3 17.2
Nondurable goods.................. 2.0 2.6 3.7 3.7 .5 -.1 2.4 4.9 3.8 .8 -.6 5.3 5.0 1.6 6.9 5.1 6.7 .1 4.7
Services.......................... 2.4 2.6 2.2 3.9 1.1 1.8 1.2 2.3 3.3 3.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.8 3.3 2.7 3.0
Gross private domestic investment... -7.9 -2.4 4.4 -2.3 -13.6 -7.6 -10.5 -22.7 16.8 .3 4.1 -.5 -.8 3.5 22.4 13.9 12.3 19.0 2.4
Fixed investment.................. -3.0 -4.9 5.1 .7 -2.6 -8.7 -4.5 -10.6 -4.3 -3.5 .2 -.8 2.4 10.9 18.0 10.5 4.5 13.9 8.8
Nonresidential.................. -4.2 -8.9 3.3 .9 -4.2 -13.6 -6.8 -13.3 -9.7 -9.6 -1.1 -3.2 -.1 11.8 15.7 11.0 4.2 12.5 13.0
Structures.................... -2.3 -17.8 -5.6 1.2 -8.3 -4.0 6.0 -33.2 -18.5 -22.6 -16.0 -6.6 -13.0 14.5 -1.3 7.9 -7.6 6.9 -1.1
Equipment and software........ -4.9 -5.5 6.4 .8 -2.8 -16.9 -11.4 -4.2 -6.3 -4.5 4.6 -2.0 4.5 11.0 21.7 12.0 8.0 14.2 17.5
Residential..................... .4 4.8 8.8 .4 2.2 5.6 1.8 -3.7 9.3 11.3 2.8 4.2 7.5 9.1 22.4 9.6 5.0 16.5 1.6
Change in private inventories..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... -5.4 -2.3 1.9 -2.7 -5.3 -12.7 -18.2 -10.8 4.7 11.0 3.1 -4.2 -1.5 -1.6 11.3 17.5 7.3 7.3 6.0
Goods........................... -6.1 -4.1 2.2 -5.4 -5.4 -17.1 -20.0 -8.8 -1.9 14.0 2.9 -10.2 4.0 -.8 10.1 16.1 9.1 6.0 9.5
Services........................ -3.7 1.8 1.4 4.4 -5.0 -.7 -13.7 -15.3 21.7 4.5 3.5 10.5 -12.7 -3.4 14.1 20.6 3.4 10.2 -1.8
Imports........................... -2.7 3.4 4.4 -1.6 -3.7 -12.6 -10.3 -3.4 12.5 11.4 5.4 9.6 -2.0 2.5 2.8 17.1 10.6 12.6 4.6
Goods........................... -3.2 3.7 4.7 -1.6 -3.4 -16.9 -8.6 -2.0 10.1 15.3 5.9 8.2 -1.8 5.1 .0 18.4 12.7 13.0 5.0
Services........................ -.3 1.9 3.1 -1.9 -5.0 12.8 -18.3 -10.4 24.7 -5.8 2.8 16.6 -2.6 -9.4 17.9 11.1 1.2 10.6 2.8
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 3.4 4.4 2.8 1.3 5.3 7.9 -1.5 8.5 4.7 4.4 2.1 4.0 .2 7.2 .1 1.6 2.5 2.2 .7
Federal........................... 3.9 7.5 6.6 -1.0 8.1 9.1 .0 8.8 8.2 12.8 2.9 9.1 .3 22.1 -3.3 4.8 7.1 2.7 4.8
National defense................ 3.9 7.7 9.0 1.7 7.0 4.3 2.4 12.5 5.8 11.5 3.4 13.5 -2.7 38.4 -7.7 11.6 10.6 1.9 10.1
Nondefense...................... 3.9 7.1 2.4 -5.7 10.1 18.0 -3.9 2.3 12.6 15.0 1.9 1.6 6.2 -3.9 5.8 -7.5 .2 4.4 -5.3
State and local................... 3.2 2.8 .7 2.5 4.0 7.2 -2.3 8.4 2.9 .3 1.7 1.4 .1 -.4 2.2 -.1 .0 1.9 -1.7
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product... 1.6 1.4 3.1 2.6 1.6 1.0 -.4 3.8 .3 1.8 2.0 .7 2.4 5.2 6.8 3.7 3.3 2.5 5.0
Gross domestic purchases.......... .9 2.5 3.3 2.1 -.4 .7 -.8 2.2 4.4 2.8 2.9 2.4 1.7 4.4 6.4 4.7 5.0 4.2 3.9
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 1.8 2.1 3.4 2.6 1.5 .5 .2 4.3 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 5.4 5.9 4.2 3.9 3.5 4.9
Gross national product (GNP)...... .8 1.7 3.3 3.0 -1.1 1.5 -2.5 3.9 1.4 2.1 3.0 1.4 1.7 4.4 7.6 5.5 3.9 1.9 4.0
Disposable personal income........ 1.9 3.1 2.3 .6 1.3 -1.7 11.5 -5.6 10.8 2.7 -1.7 .2 1.8 4.3 8.2 1.4 2.4 2.8 2.0
Current-dollar measures:
GDP............................. 3.2 3.5 4.9 3.8 2.8 4.4 .2 3.6 4.5 4.2 3.9 2.7 4.9 5.3 8.8 5.7 7.4 6.6 5.5
Final sales of domestic product. 4.1 3.1 5.1 4.5 4.9 4.2 1.2 5.5 1.7 3.3 3.7 2.7 5.3 6.3 8.4 5.4 6.1 5.8 6.5
Gross domestic purchases........ 2.9 4.0 5.4 3.7 2.2 3.0 .2 3.1 5.3 5.6 4.4 4.3 5.7 4.8 8.1 5.9 8.6 7.9 5.9
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 3.8 3.6 5.5 4.4 4.3 2.8 1.2 4.9 2.6 4.7 4.2 4.3 6.0 5.8 7.7 5.7 7.4 7.1 6.9
GNP............................. 3.2 3.4 5.2 4.7 2.1 4.6 -.8 6.0 2.4 3.9 4.3 3.4 4.6 5.6 9.0 7.0 6.8 5.2 5.6
Disposable personal income...... 4.1 4.6 4.2 2.4 4.6 .8 12.1 -5.0 11.8 5.7 .2 1.5 5.1 5.0 9.9 2.6 5.8 6.0 3.2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 2.--Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change at annual rate:
Gross domestic product.......... .8 1.9 3.0 2.1 -.5 1.2 -1.4 1.6 3.4 2.4 2.6 .7 1.9 4.1 7.4 4.2 4.5 3.3 4.0
Percentage points at annual rates:
Personal consumption expenditures. 1.74 2.14 2.29 2.29 1.07 .67 1.20 4.71 1.32 1.98 2.02 1.74 1.84 2.72 3.58 2.50 2.90 1.10 3.57
Durable goods................... .37 .56 .63 .06 .55 -.03 .26 2.81 -.79 .37 1.16 -.21 -.01 1.64 1.38 .33 .19 -.02 1.37
Motor vehicles and parts...... .20 .22 .22 .01 .36 -.17 .16 2.24 -1.34 .13 1.09 -.50 -.22 .86 .53 -.07 -.23 -.24 .98
Furniture and household
equipment.................... .19 .26 .27 .07 .23 .16 .15 .39 .41 .20 .04 .20 .07 .51 .62 .28 .32 .22 .33
Other......................... -.01 .08 .15 -.02 -.03 -.03 -.06 .18 .14 .04 .03 .08 .14 .27 .23 .12 .10 .00 .06
Nondurable goods................ .40 .51 .73 .72 .09 -.03 .47 .95 .76 .15 -.12 1.03 .97 .31 1.38 1.01 1.33 .03 .94
Food.......................... .15 .18 .37 .14 .24 .05 .09 .18 .26 .29 -.02 .31 .62 .26 .57 .25 .77 .22 .42
Clothing and shoes............ .06 .12 .12 .04 -.06 .05 .04 .27 .25 -.01 -.12 .30 -.02 .23 .27 .11 .43 -.15 .16
Gasoline, fuel oil, and other
energy goods................. .02 .02 .01 .25 .05 -.33 .11 .24 .00 -.14 -.01 .21 .01 -.29 .10 .33 -.04 -.29 .05
Other......................... .17 .17 .23 .29 -.14 .21 .23 .27 .24 .01 .03 .21 .37 .12 .43 .32 .17 .25 .30
Services........................ .97 1.08 .93 1.51 .43 .73 .47 .95 1.36 1.46 .98 .93 .87 .77 .83 1.15 1.39 1.10 1.26
Housing....................... .28 .29 .15 .28 .31 .28 .21 .26 .42 .33 .19 .13 .12 .11 .16 .09 .23 .21 .25
Household operation........... .01 .03 .06 .41 -.25 -.35 .03 -.15 .09 .24 .01 .16 .01 -.11 .08 .29 .13 -.03 .05
Electricity and gas......... -.03 .04 .03 .40 -.24 -.44 .00 -.07 .11 .19 .04 .19 -.04 -.19 .01 .25 .05 -.13 -.01
Other household operation... .03 -.01 .04 .01 -.02 .09 .02 -.08 -.02 .05 -.03 -.03 .05 .08 .07 .04 .07 .09 .06
Transportation................ -.03 -.08 -.02 .01 .05 -.06 -.22 -.17 .01 -.04 -.10 -.01 .05 -.07 -.02 -.01 .05 .08 .04
Medical care.................. .50 .66 .46 .42 .45 .49 .70 .67 .74 .63 .59 .55 .39 .40 .40 .36 .38 .52 .59
Recreation.................... .07 .07 .09 .04 .15 -.03 .02 .07 .13 .05 .04 .11 .08 .13 .07 .11 .17 .01 .08
Other......................... .15 .11 .20 .34 -.28 .39 -.25 .28 -.03 .24 .25 -.02 .23 .31 .15 .31 .43 .32 .24
Gross private domestic investment. -1.39 -.37 .66 -.36 -2.44 -1.28 -1.76 -3.95 2.34 .05 .61 -.06 -.10 .54 3.16 2.04 1.86 2.85 .40
Fixed investment................ -.50 -.80 .76 .13 -.43 -1.51 -.75 -1.81 -.71 -.55 .02 -.13 .35 1.55 2.59 1.57 .69 2.07 1.37
Nonresidential................ -.52 -1.02 .33 .11 -.52 -1.76 -.83 -1.63 -1.13 -1.06 -.12 -.33 -.01 1.10 1.50 1.07 .42 1.21 1.27
Structures.................. -.07 -.57 -.15 .04 -.29 -.14 .19 -1.27 -.59 -.70 -.45 -.17 -.33 .32 -.03 .18 -.19 .16 -.03
Equipment and software...... -.44 -.45 .48 .07 -.24 -1.62 -1.02 -.35 -.53 -.36 .33 -.16 .32 .78 1.53 .89 .61 1.05 1.30
Information processing
equipment and software... -.08 -.18 .45 .58 -.08 -.93 -.53 -.21 -.29 .04 .38 -.15 .59 .51 1.04 .61 .62 .55 .30
Computers and peripheral
equipment.............. .02 .09 .24 .06 .16 -.22 -.26 .19 .18 .03 .25 .08 .25 .30 .39 .25 .06 .22 .18
Software................ -.02 -.10 .07 .20 .01 -.30 -.07 -.19 -.14 -.03 .11 -.16 .12 .07 .28 .14 .24 .13 .10
Other................... -.08 -.16 .14 .32 -.25 -.42 -.20 -.21 -.33 .04 .02 -.08 .23 .14 .36 .22 .33 .20 .02
Industrial equipment...... -.14 -.08 .00 -.12 .01 -.48 -.27 -.21 .24 -.21 .02 -.05 .09 -.02 .04 -.06 .08 .03 .31
Transportation equipment.. -.18 -.17 -.04 -.36 -.22 -.03 -.27 .26 -.39 -.38 -.09 .00 -.31 .25 .14 .14 -.20 .28 .41
Other equipment........... -.04 -.02 .06 -.03 .05 -.19 .05 -.19 -.10 .18 .02 .04 -.06 .03 .31 .20 .10 .20 .28
Residential................... .02 .22 .43 .02 .10 .25 .08 -.18 .42 .51 .13 .20 .36 .44 1.09 .50 .27 .86 .09
Change in private inventories... -.88 .42 -.10 -.49 -2.01 .23 -1.02 -2.14 3.05 .60 .59 .07 -.45 -1.01 .57 .47 1.17 .78 -.97
Farm.......................... .02 -.01 .02 .34 .00 -.28 .09 -.23 .37 -.47 .24 .02 .06 -.07 .06 .19 .06 -.10 .07
Nonfarm....................... -.90 .44 -.12 -.83 -2.01 .51 -1.11 -1.91 2.69 1.07 .36 .05 -.51 -.94 .52 .29 1.10 .88 -1.04
Net exports of goods and services. -.20 -.70 -.43 -.07 -.04 .49 -.56 -.66 -1.10 -.46 -.43 -1.69 .14 -.50 .64 -.66 -.76 -1.06 -.10
Exports......................... -.60 -.24 .18 -.31 -.59 -1.45 -2.04 -1.11 .43 .99 .29 -.42 -.15 -.15 1.02 1.55 .70 .70 .59
Goods......................... -.48 -.29 .14 -.45 -.43 -1.43 -1.60 -.63 -.13 .87 .19 -.72 .25 -.06 .64 1.00 .60 .41 .64
Services...................... -.12 .05 .04 .14 -.16 -.02 -.44 -.48 .56 .13 .10 .30 -.40 -.10 .39 .56 .10 .30 -.06
Imports......................... .40 -.46 -.61 .24 .56 1.94 1.48 .45 -1.53 -1.45 -.72 -1.27 .29 -.34 -.39 -2.22 -1.46 -1.77 -.69
Goods......................... .39 -.42 -.54 .19 .43 2.23 1.02 .21 -1.04 -1.59 -.65 -.91 .22 -.58 .00 -1.96 -1.43 -1.52 -.62
Services...................... .01 -.04 -.07 .04 .12 -.28 .47 .25 -.49 .14 -.06 -.36 .06 .24 -.39 -.26 -.03 -.25 -.07
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............. .60 .79 .52 .22 .92 1.35 -.28 1.48 .85 .81 .40 .75 .05 1.35 .03 .31 .48 .41 .13
Federal......................... .23 .46 .43 -.07 .46 .52 .00 .51 .49 .78 .19 .58 .04 1.40 -.23 .33 .48 .18 .33
National defense.............. .15 .30 .38 .06 .25 .16 .09 .46 .23 .45 .14 .54 -.11 1.49 -.36 .50 .47 .09 .45
Consumption expenditures.... .13 .25 .33 .11 .26 .06 .03 .45 .22 .29 .04 .63 -.16 1.39 -.40 .42 .29 .16 .38
Gross investment............ .02 .06 .05 -.05 -.01 .10 .06 .02 .00 .16 .11 -.09 .05 .10 .03 .09 .19 -.08 .07
Nondefense.................... .08 .16 .06 -.13 .20 .36 -.09 .05 .27 .33 .05 .04 .15 -.09 .13 -.18 .00 .10 -.12
Consumption expenditures..... .08 .14 .05 -.06 .15 .26 .01 .04 .19 .23 .12 .07 .14 -.23 .23 -.18 -.01 -.01 -.05
Gross investment............. .00 .02 .01 -.07 .05 .10 -.10 .01 .07 .10 -.07 -.03 .00 .13 -.10 .01 .01 .11 -.07
State and local................. .37 .33 .09 .29 .46 .83 -.28 .97 .36 .03 .21 .17 .02 -.05 .26 -.02 .00 .23 -.20
Consumption expenditures.... .24 .21 .07 .21 .24 .24 .39 .38 .10 .16 .11 .14 .02 .04 .01 .08 .02 .00 .12
Gross investment............ .13 .12 .02 .08 .22 .59 -.67 .59 .26 -.13 .09 .02 .00 -.09 .25 -.10 -.02 .23 -.32
Addenda:
Goods........................... -.59 .41 1.41 .10 -1.57 -.41 -1.89 .88 1.38 .31 1.54 -1.05 1.39 1.32 5.45 1.90 2.65 .82 2.67
Services........................ 1.30 1.69 1.35 1.95 1.04 .98 .93 1.58 1.94 2.39 1.29 1.71 .54 2.11 .67 1.77 1.76 1.30 1.59
Structures...................... .04 -.24 .29 .03 .03 .66 -.44 -.87 .09 -.32 -.23 .08 .00 .67 1.29 .52 .07 1.19 -.25
Motor vehicle output............ -.17 .39 .19 -.47 -.69 1.03 -.20 .69 .25 .35 .62 .22 -.46 .11 .84 .11 .30 -.58 .34
Final sales of computers........ .14 .08 .31 .19 .42 -.13 -.21 .19 -.02 .10 .31 .23 .25 .28 .64 .26 .00 .00 .18
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (2000) dollars
------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------------------
2003 III 03 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r 2003 III 03 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r 2003 II 04 III 04r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product....... 11,004.0 11,116.7 11,270.9 11,472.6 11,657.5 11,814.9 10,381.3 10,472.8 10,580.7 10,697.5 10,784.7 10,891.0 306.5 87.2 106.3
Personal consumption expenditures. 7,760.9 7,822.5 7,914.9 8,060.2 8,153.8 8,282.5 7,355.6 7,401.7 7,466.8 7,543.0 7,572.4 7,667.8 232.2 29.4 95.4
Durable goods................... 950.7 972.7 971.1 976.3 975.5 1,007.0 1,030.6 1,059.6 1,069.7 1,075.5 1,074.7 1,118.3 71.0 -.8 43.6
Motor vehicles and parts...... 440.1 452.5 444.1 438.4 432.5 458.4 452.1 465.6 463.5 456.7 449.6 478.9 23.4 -7.1 29.3
Furniture and household
equipment.................... 328.0 333.3 338.0 345.0 348.6 353.8 393.5 405.0 414.6 425.6 433.3 445.4 32.8 7.7 12.1
Other......................... 182.6 186.9 189.0 193.0 194.4 194.7 186.5 190.5 194.0 196.9 196.8 198.5 15.6 -.1 1.7
Nondurable goods................ 2,200.1 2,219.2 2,250.1 2,316.6 2,354.6 2,387.2 2,112.4 2,125.3 2,152.0 2,187.3 2,188.0 2,213.2 75.0 .7 25.2
Food.......................... 1,064.5 1,074.6 1,091.8 1,120.3 1,137.5 1,157.0 995.1 1,002.2 1,008.6 1,028.4 1,034.3 1,045.4 36.7 5.9 11.1
Clothing and shoes............ 307.2 311.0 314.4 325.0 322.9 325.2 330.2 334.9 338.2 351.2 346.5 351.6 13.5 -4.7 5.1
Gasoline, fuel oil, and other
energy goods................. 208.2 207.6 210.7 229.7 243.2 245.4 197.3 194.6 203.3 202.1 195.0 196.3 1.3 -7.1 1.3
Other......................... 620.1 626.0 633.1 641.5 651.0 659.6 589.6 593.6 602.1 606.6 613.4 621.4 23.3 6.8 8.0
Services........................ 4,610.1 4,630.6 4,693.6 4,767.3 4,823.8 4,888.2 4,220.3 4,227.9 4,256.7 4,291.7 4,320.0 4,352.4 91.7 28.3 32.4
Housing....................... 1,188.4 1,193.4 1,202.8 1,215.4 1,232.7 1,247.3 1,076.1 1,078.1 1,080.3 1,086.0 1,091.5 1,097.9 14.1 5.5 6.4
Household operation........... 431.3 431.8 438.1 445.6 447.6 453.5 400.2 398.7 406.0 409.3 408.4 409.7 6.1 -.9 1.3
Electricity and gas......... 167.3 166.7 171.2 175.7 174.3 177.4 147.2 144.7 150.6 151.9 148.8 148.5 2.5 -3.1 -.3
Other household operation... 264.0 265.0 266.8 270.0 273.3 276.1 253.0 254.2 255.2 257.1 259.7 261.4 3.6 2.6 1.7
Transportation................ 294.0 295.1 296.5 297.8 300.5 302.6 277.7 277.1 276.7 278.1 280.1 281.3 -2.2 2.0 1.2
Medical care.................. 1,301.1 1,312.1 1,334.0 1,356.8 1,379.1 1,404.4 1,184.3 1,189.3 1,198.3 1,207.9 1,221.0 1,236.1 45.0 13.1 15.1
Recreation.................... 317.2 319.0 323.4 330.8 333.0 337.4 290.3 291.2 294.1 298.3 298.5 300.6 8.8 .2 2.1
Other......................... 1,078.1 1,079.1 1,098.8 1,120.9 1,130.9 1,143.1 990.7 992.5 1,000.3 1,011.2 1,019.4 1,025.7 19.6 8.2 6.3
Gross private domestic investment. 1,665.8 1,696.6 1,758.8 1,819.7 1,920.7 1,947.0 1,628.8 1,659.4 1,714.1 1,764.5 1,842.9 1,853.9 68.1 78.4 11.0
Fixed investment................ 1,667.0 1,700.2 1,755.2 1,783.5 1,861.7 1,915.4 1,627.3 1,660.6 1,702.7 1,721.4 1,778.3 1,816.1 78.4 56.9 37.8
Nonresidential................ 1,094.7 1,113.3 1,146.3 1,158.8 1,198.5 1,238.5 1,110.8 1,131.1 1,161.0 1,173.0 1,207.9 1,245.3 35.2 34.9 37.4
Structures.................. 261.6 262.3 268.2 266.0 275.5 281.2 237.4 237.9 242.4 237.7 241.7 241.0 -14.2 4.0 -.7
Equipment and software...... 833.1 851.1 878.1 892.8 923.1 957.3 879.2 899.7 925.6 943.7 975.5 1,015.6 52.7 31.8 40.1
Information processing
equipment and software... 431.2 442.8 454.7 468.5 480.9 486.3 492.4 507.1 526.6 547.0 565.4 575.6 52.8 18.4 10.2
Computers and peripheral
equipment.............. 95.3 99.7 104.5 104.4 108.8 111.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Software................ 165.8 169.1 170.5 176.8 180.0 182.9 171.2 174.6 178.5 185.6 189.5 192.7 7.6 3.9 3.2
Other................... 170.0 174.0 179.7 187.4 192.2 192.2 179.4 183.9 190.4 200.2 206.2 206.8 15.1 6.0 .6
Industrial equipment...... 139.8 140.8 139.5 143.1 145.0 155.2 137.6 138.4 136.8 139.0 139.7 148.5 .2 .7 8.8
Transportation equipment.. 126.6 128.8 140.0 134.5 143.2 153.0 121.6 124.3 127.8 122.7 130.0 141.0 -4.0 7.3 11.0
Other equipment........... 135.5 138.7 144.0 146.6 153.9 162.7 131.2 134.0 139.3 142.1 147.5 155.2 6.7 5.4 7.7
Residential................... 572.3 586.9 609.0 624.6 663.2 677.0 511.2 523.8 535.9 542.5 563.6 565.9 41.2 21.1 2.3
Change in private inventories... -1.2 -3.7 3.5 36.2 59.0 31.6 -.8 -3.5 8.6 40.0 61.1 34.5 -12.5 21.1 -26.6
Farm.......................... .3 -.9 -.9 1.0 -2.4 -.2 .3 -.7 3.5 5.1 3.0 3.8 1.9 -2.1 .8
Nonfarm....................... -1.5 -2.8 4.5 35.2 61.4 31.8 -1.1 -2.7 4.6 34.5 58.8 30.4 -14.6 24.3 -28.4
Net exports of goods and services. -498.1 -488.8 -502.8 -546.8 -591.3 -611.8 -518.5 -508.7 -528.3 -550.1 -580.3 -583.2 -46.4 -30.2 -2.9
Exports......................... 1,046.2 1,047.7 1,099.2 1,134.3 1,167.6 1,189.5 1,031.8 1,033.8 1,076.2 1,095.4 1,114.8 1,131.1 19.5 19.4 16.3
Goods......................... 726.4 725.9 761.3 790.3 812.2 833.4 721.7 723.1 750.6 767.2 778.4 796.3 15.3 11.2 17.9
Services...................... 319.8 321.7 337.9 344.1 355.4 356.1 309.9 310.5 325.4 328.1 336.2 334.6 4.2 8.1 -1.6
Imports......................... 1,544.3 1,536.4 1,602.0 1,681.2 1,758.9 1,801.2 1,550.3 1,542.5 1,604.5 1,645.5 1,695.1 1,714.3 65.9 49.6 19.2
Goods......................... 1,282.0 1,270.3 1,326.4 1,399.2 1,470.1 1,506.9 1,307.3 1,297.3 1,353.2 1,394.1 1,437.4 1,454.9 58.8 43.3 17.5
Services...................... 262.3 266.1 275.6 282.0 288.8 294.4 243.3 245.2 251.7 252.4 258.9 260.7 7.4 6.5 1.8
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............. 2,075.5 2,086.4 2,100.0 2,139.5 2,174.3 2,197.2 1,909.4 1,916.0 1,923.7 1,935.8 1,946.5 1,949.9 51.5 10.7 3.4
Federal......................... 752.2 756.7 767.5 793.3 804.4 817.4 689.6 693.1 701.2 713.3 718.1 726.6 43.0 4.8 8.5
National defense.............. 496.4 498.1 513.6 534.1 541.2 557.0 451.8 453.1 465.7 477.6 479.9 491.5 37.2 2.3 11.6
Consumption expenditures.... 436.1 437.1 450.2 465.2 473.6 487.1 390.3 391.1 401.4 408.5 412.5 422.1 32.1 4.0 9.6
Gross investment............ 60.4 61.0 63.4 69.0 67.6 69.8 61.6 62.1 64.6 69.9 67.7 69.8 5.0 -2.2 2.1
Nondefense.................... 255.7 258.7 253.9 259.1 263.2 260.4 237.6 239.9 235.2 235.4 237.9 234.7 5.6 2.5 -3.2
Consumption expenditures.... 222.5 225.9 221.1 225.9 226.6 225.9 204.0 206.7 202.0 201.8 201.5 200.2 5.0 -.3 -1.3
Gross investment............ 33.2 32.8 32.8 33.2 36.5 34.5 33.5 33.1 33.2 33.6 36.8 34.6 .6 3.2 -2.2
State and local................. 1,323.3 1,329.7 1,332.6 1,346.3 1,369.9 1,379.8 1,219.8 1,222.9 1,222.5 1,222.4 1,228.3 1,223.2 8.4 5.9 -5.1
Consumption expenditures.... 1,058.5 1,061.0 1,066.3 1,079.8 1,091.8 1,105.5 969.0 968.8 970.9 971.5 971.5 974.6 6.8 .0 3.1
Gross investment............ 264.9 268.7 266.2 266.4 278.0 274.3 250.9 254.3 251.6 251.0 257.1 248.6 1.7 6.1 -8.5
Residual.......................... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... -14.9 -23.5 -26.7 -31.3 -35.6 -44.5 ..... ..... .....
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product. 11,005.3 11,120.4 11,267.4 11,436.4 11,598.5 11,783.3 10,379.9 10,473.9 10,569.6 10,655.8 10,722.3 10,854.7 316.7 66.5 132.4
Gross domestic purchases........ 11,502.2 11,605.5 11,773.7 12,019.4 12,248.8 12,426.6 10,895.7 10,978.3 11,104.3 11,241.9 11,358.1 11,467.4 351.1 116.2 109.3
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 11,503.4 11,609.2 11,770.1 11,983.2 12,189.8 12,395.1 10,894.2 10,979.4 11,093.2 11,200.1 11,295.5 11,430.9 361.2 95.4 135.4
Gross domestic product.......... 11,004.0 11,116.7 11,270.9 11,472.6 11,657.5 11,814.9 10,381.3 10,472.8 10,580.7 10,697.5 10,784.7 10,891.0 306.5 87.2 106.3
Plus: Income receipts from
the rest of the world.......... 329.0 329.8 371.8 373.8 388.0 406.8 311.9 312.1 350.7 349.6 359.8 375.5 20.2 10.2 15.7
Less: Income payments to
the rest of the world.......... 273.9 278.2 284.6 300.3 351.9 368.6 259.2 263.2 268.0 280.3 325.8 339.9 -5.7 45.5 14.1
Equals: Gross national product.. 11,059.2 11,168.3 11,358.1 11,546.1 11,693.6 11,853.0 10,433.9 10,521.7 10,663.3 10,766.7 10,818.7 10,926.5 332.2 52.0 107.8
Net domestic product............ 9,650.1 9,756.2 9,896.7 10,117.6 10,282.3 10,316.9 9,045.8 9,132.0 9,228.4 9,344.1 9,424.1 9,426.4 267.9 80.0 2.3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
Note.--Users are cautioned that particularly for components that
exhibit rapid change in prices relative to other prices in the
economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure
the component's relative importance or its contribution to the
growth rate of more aggregate series. For accurate estimates of
the contributions to percent changes in real GDP, use table 2.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 4.--Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). 2.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 3.3 3.1 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.8 3.2 1.4
Personal consumption expenditures... 2.1 1.4 1.9 1.8 3.3 2.6 .6 .6 .9 2.9 2.0 1.4 3.2 .7 1.6 1.2 3.3 3.1 1.3
Durable goods..................... -1.9 -2.7 -3.4 -1.0 -1.4 -3.1 -2.8 -1.6 -3.8 -2.5 -2.1 -2.8 -3.7 -3.8 -4.4 -4.3 .0 -.1 -3.1
Nondurable goods.................. 1.5 .6 2.0 1.4 1.4 3.5 -.9 -4.0 .0 5.4 1.3 1.2 5.1 -2.2 3.5 .5 5.3 6.6 .9
Services.......................... 3.3 2.7 3.0 2.6 5.3 3.4 2.0 3.3 2.3 2.8 3.2 2.4 3.8 3.1 2.0 2.7 3.0 2.1 2.3
Gross private domestic investment... 1.0 .2 1.1 .8 .0 1.5 2.1 .2 -1.0 -.1 -.5 2.6 1.4 -.1 1.2 2.7 2.1 4.4 2.9
Fixed investment.................. 1.0 .2 1.2 .9 -.3 1.8 2.2 .1 -1.1 -.1 -.4 2.7 1.9 -.3 1.2 2.8 2.0 4.3 3.0
Nonresidential.................. -.3 -.8 -.4 .0 -2.3 .6 .3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.1 -1.3 .6 -.5 -1.3 .3 1.2 .3 1.7 .9
Structures.................... 5.4 2.4 2.1 5.0 6.0 6.5 6.6 2.1 .0 2.1 1.6 3.0 3.9 .0 1.3 1.4 4.8 7.6 9.8
Equipment and software........ -2.3 -1.9 -1.2 -1.7 -5.1 -1.5 -2.0 -2.2 -1.7 -2.2 -2.2 -.1 -1.9 -1.7 .0 1.2 -1.1 .1 -1.6
Residential..................... 4.6 2.5 4.4 3.4 5.5 5.0 6.9 2.8 -.8 2.1 1.6 7.1 6.8 1.7 3.1 5.8 5.4 9.1 6.8
Change in private inventories..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... -.4 -.4 2.1 .4 .1 -1.3 -2.0 -3.5 -1.2 3.0 3.0 .4 4.1 1.0 .8 3.2 5.7 4.6 1.6
Goods........................... -.7 -.7 2.0 .4 -.1 -1.6 -2.6 -3.8 -1.4 2.2 3.3 .5 3.5 1.6 -.6 4.2 6.4 5.3 1.2
Services........................ .4 .4 2.4 .6 .6 -.7 -.6 -2.8 -.6 4.8 2.4 .3 5.4 -.6 4.0 .9 4.0 3.2 2.7
Imports........................... -2.5 -1.2 3.4 .7 -3.0 -5.9 -5.3 -10.0 -1.9 10.5 3.4 .5 11.3 -4.3 2.6 .9 9.6 6.4 5.1
Goods........................... -3.0 -1.8 2.9 .8 -3.8 -6.6 -6.5 -11.3 -2.0 10.8 2.6 .4 12.0 -6.7 2.4 .4 9.9 7.8 5.2
Services........................ .1 1.7 5.9 .3 1.5 -2.2 1.2 -3.3 -1.2 8.8 7.7 .9 7.9 8.4 3.6 3.5 8.3 -.5 5.0
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 2.5 2.7 3.2 2.7 3.1 1.8 1.6 1.1 4.2 3.1 2.7 3.3 7.4 -.5 2.2 1.0 5.1 4.3 3.6
Federal........................... 1.9 3.3 3.6 1.6 1.9 1.1 2.2 1.8 7.4 1.4 1.8 5.1 8.5 .3 1.1 1.0 6.6 3.0 1.7
National defense................ 2.0 3.4 4.2 .9 3.5 .7 2.5 .8 7.1 1.6 2.9 7.7 8.6 -.3 1.1 1.3 5.7 3.5 1.9
Nondefense...................... 1.7 3.1 2.6 2.7 -1.0 1.8 1.6 3.4 8.0 1.1 -.2 .5 8.2 1.4 1.0 .3 8.3 1.9 1.3
State and local................... 2.9 2.4 3.0 3.2 3.8 2.1 1.3 .8 2.5 4.0 3.2 2.4 6.8 -1.0 2.9 1.0 4.2 5.2 4.7
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product... 2.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 3.3 3.2 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.7 3.2 1.4
Gross domestic purchases.......... 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.3 1.0 .6 1.2 2.5 1.8 1.9 3.7 .4 1.7 1.4 3.4 3.5 1.9
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.3 1.0 .6 1.1 2.5 1.8 1.9 3.8 .3 1.7 1.4 3.4 3.5 1.9
Gross national product (GNP)...... 2.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 3.3 3.1 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.7 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.8 3.2 1.4
Implicit price deflators:
GDP............................. 2.4 1.7 1.8 1.6 3.3 3.1 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.8 1.3 2.0 2.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 2.7 3.2 1.4
Gross domestic purchases........ 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.6 2.7 2.2 1.1 .9 .8 2.8 1.4 1.9 3.9 .4 1.6 1.2 3.4 3.5 2.0
GNP............................. 2.4 1.6 1.8 1.6 3.2 3.1 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.8 1.3 2.0 2.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 2.7 3.2 1.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 5.--Real Gross Domestic Product, Quantity Indexes
[Index numbers, 2000=100]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted
---------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 III 03 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product............. 100.751 102.626 105.749 106.681 107.780 108.969 109.858 110.941
Personal consumption expenditures.......... 102.537 105.698 109.143 109.828 110.794 111.925 112.360 113.776
Durable goods............................ 104.327 111.150 119.378 122.733 123.902 124.572 124.482 129.529
Nondurable goods......................... 102.027 104.630 108.481 109.145 110.517 112.331 112.367 113.659
Services................................. 102.403 105.085 107.418 107.613 108.346 109.237 109.955 110.782
Gross private domestic investment.......... 92.103 89.928 93.852 95.616 98.771 101.672 106.191 106.823
Fixed investment......................... 97.047 92.253 96.924 98.904 101.412 102.529 105.913 108.170
Nonresidential......................... 95.817 87.302 90.157 91.802 94.235 95.204 98.041 101.075
Structures........................... 97.737 80.346 75.810 75.955 77.406 75.886 77.171 76.958
Equipment and software............... 95.136 89.947 95.679 97.917 100.735 102.699 106.157 110.524
Residential............................ 100.357 105.178 114.392 117.201 119.916 121.400 126.122 126.628
Change in private inventories............ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports of goods and services.............. 94.565 92.343 94.116 94.300 98.170 99.924 101.690 103.176
Imports of goods and services.............. 97.291 100.585 105.048 104.522 108.725 111.504 114.862 116.167
Government consumption expenditures and
gross investment.......................... 103.412 107.918 110.906 111.290 111.738 112.443 113.062 113.259
Federal.................................. 103.908 111.725 119.140 119.751 121.154 123.249 124.068 125.539
State and local.......................... 103.162 105.999 106.739 107.006 106.968 106.965 107.482 107.033
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product.......... 101.644 103.102 106.346 107.309 108.290 109.173 109.854 111.211
Gross domestic purchases................. 100.918 103.414 106.858 107.668 108.904 110.253 111.393 112.465
Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 101.781 103.876 107.438 108.279 109.401 110.455 111.396 112.731
Gross national product................... 100.788 102.494 105.865 106.755 108.192 109.241 109.769 110.863
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 6.--Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product
[Index numbers, 2000=100]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted
---------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 III 03 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product............. 102.402 104.097 106.003 106.158 106.586 107.314 108.169 108.551
Personal consumption expenditures
(PCE)..................................... 102.094 103.548 105.511 105.689 106.005 106.860 107.683 108.021
Durable goods............................ 98.114 95.475 92.244 91.757 90.747 90.741 90.725 90.008
Nondurable goods......................... 101.531 102.097 104.154 104.423 104.564 105.914 107.616 107.869
Services................................. 103.257 106.083 109.237 109.529 110.266 111.085 111.667 112.314
Gross private domestic investment.......... 101.013 101.221 102.304 102.276 102.968 103.514 104.644 105.405
Fixed investment......................... 101.023 101.232 102.435 102.401 103.101 103.618 104.709 105.482
Nonresidential......................... 99.683 98.909 98.546 98.431 98.729 98.793 99.220 99.449
Structures........................... 105.403 107.908 110.176 110.255 110.633 111.926 113.984 116.677
Equipment and software............... 97.708 95.868 94.754 94.588 94.862 94.611 94.626 94.256
Residential............................ 104.633 107.246 111.951 112.097 113.675 115.179 117.710 119.674
Change in private inventories............ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports of goods and services.............. 99.624 99.275 101.395 101.355 102.146 103.565 104.746 105.175
Imports of goods and services.............. 97.497 96.326 99.615 99.606 99.837 102.163 103.760 105.066
Government consumption expenditures and
gross investment.......................... 102.544 105.313 108.702 108.898 109.167 110.522 111.703 112.682
Federal.................................. 101.907 105.288 109.081 109.181 109.447 111.203 112.020 112.491
State and local.......................... 102.868 105.317 108.485 108.736 109.007 110.131 111.524 112.802
Addenda:
PCE excluding food and energy............ 101.904 103.707 105.072 105.174 105.527 106.081 106.523 106.753
Market-based PCE\1\...................... 101.941 103.113 105.040 105.294 105.496 106.334 107.292 107.674
Market-based PCE excluding food
and energy\1\........................... 101.668 103.186 104.388 104.572 104.790 105.261 105.798 106.060
Final sales of domestic product.......... 102.406 104.100 106.025 106.179 106.608 107.332 108.178 108.561
Gross domestic purchases................. 101.994 103.489 105.571 105.721 106.086 106.980 107.913 108.429
Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 101.998 103.491 105.592 105.741 106.107 106.997 107.923 108.440
Gross national product................... 102.399 104.087 105.997 106.156 106.579 107.308 108.164 108.549
Implicit price deflators:
Gross domestic product................. 102.399 104.092 105.998 106.148 106.523 107.246 108.093 108.482
Final sales of domestic product........ 102.407 104.100 106.025 106.173 106.601 107.325 108.172 108.555
Gross domestic purchases............... 101.992 103.484 105.566 105.713 106.028 106.916 107.842 108.364
Final sales to domestic purchasers..... 101.998 103.491 105.592 105.735 106.102 106.992 107.917 108.435
Gross national product................. 102.396 104.082 105.992 106.146 106.516 107.240 108.087 108.479
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
1. This index is a supplemental measure that is based on household
expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It
excludes most implicit prices (for example, the services furnished
without payment by financial intermediaries) and the expenses of
nonprofit institutions. Percentage changes for these series are
included in the addenda to table 8 and appendix table A.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 7.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change from Preceding Year
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 4.1 3.5 1.9 -.2 3.3 2.7 4.0 2.5 3.7 4.5 4.2 4.5 3.7 .8 1.9 3.0
Personal consumption expenditures...... 4.1 2.8 2.0 .2 3.3 3.3 3.7 2.7 3.4 3.8 5.0 5.1 4.7 2.5 3.1 3.3
Durable goods........................ 6.0 2.2 -.3 -5.6 5.9 7.8 8.4 4.4 7.8 8.6 11.3 11.7 7.3 4.3 6.5 7.4
Nondurable goods..................... 3.3 2.8 1.6 -.2 2.0 2.7 3.5 2.2 2.6 2.7 4.0 4.6 3.8 2.0 2.6 3.7
Services............................. 4.0 3.0 2.9 1.7 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.9 3.3 4.2 4.0 4.5 2.4 2.6 2.2
Gross private domestic investment...... 2.4 4.0 -3.4 -8.1 8.1 8.9 13.6 3.1 8.9 12.4 9.8 7.8 5.7 -7.9 -2.4 4.4
Fixed investment..................... 3.3 3.0 -2.1 -6.5 5.9 8.6 9.3 6.5 9.0 9.2 10.2 8.3 6.5 -3.0 -4.9 5.1
Nonresidential..................... 5.2 5.6 .5 -5.4 3.2 8.7 9.2 10.5 9.3 12.1 11.1 9.2 8.7 -4.2 -8.9 3.3
Structures....................... .6 2.0 1.5 -11.1 -6.0 -.7 1.8 6.4 5.6 7.3 5.1 -.4 6.8 -2.3 -17.8 -5.6
Equipment and software........... 7.5 7.3 .0 -2.6 7.3 12.5 11.9 12.0 10.6 13.8 13.3 12.7 9.4 -4.9 -5.5 6.4
Residential........................ -1.0 -3.0 -8.6 -9.6 13.8 8.2 9.6 -3.2 8.0 1.9 7.6 6.0 .8 .4 4.8 8.8
Change in private inventories........ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. 16.0 11.5 9.0 6.6 6.9 3.2 8.7 10.1 8.4 11.9 2.4 4.3 8.7 -5.4 -2.3 1.9
Goods.............................. 18.8 11.9 8.4 6.9 7.5 3.3 9.7 11.7 8.8 14.3 2.2 3.8 11.2 -6.1 -4.1 2.2
Services........................... 9.0 10.3 10.5 6.0 5.5 3.2 6.3 6.3 7.2 5.9 2.9 5.6 2.9 -3.7 1.8 1.4
Imports.............................. 3.9 4.4 3.6 -.6 7.0 8.8 11.9 8.0 8.7 13.6 11.6 11.5 13.1 -2.7 3.4 4.4
Goods.............................. 4.0 4.3 3.0 -.1 9.3 10.1 13.3 9.0 9.3 14.4 11.7 12.4 13.5 -3.2 3.7 4.7
Services........................... 3.4 4.9 6.5 -2.6 -2.6 2.9 5.7 3.3 5.5 9.4 11.4 6.9 11.1 -.3 1.9 3.1
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. 1.3 2.6 3.2 1.1 .5 -.9 .0 .5 1.0 1.9 1.9 3.9 2.1 3.4 4.4 2.8
Federal.............................. -1.6 1.5 2.0 -.2 -1.7 -4.2 -3.7 -2.7 -1.2 -1.0 -1.1 2.2 .9 3.9 7.5 6.6
National defense................... -.5 -.5 .0 -1.1 -5.0 -5.6 -4.9 -3.8 -1.4 -2.8 -2.1 1.9 -.5 3.9 7.7 9.0
Nondefense......................... -5.1 8.3 8.3 2.4 6.9 -.7 -1.2 -.4 -.7 2.6 .7 2.8 3.5 3.9 7.1 2.4
State and local...................... 3.7 3.4 4.1 2.1 2.2 1.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 3.6 3.6 4.7 2.7 3.2 2.8 .7
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product...... 4.3 3.4 2.1 .1 3.0 2.6 3.4 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.5 3.8 1.6 1.4 3.1
Gross domestic purchases............. 3.2 3.0 1.4 -.8 3.3 3.2 4.4 2.4 3.8 4.8 5.3 5.3 4.4 .9 2.5 3.3
Final sales to domestic purchasers... 3.4 2.8 1.6 -.6 3.1 3.2 3.8 2.8 3.8 4.3 5.3 5.4 4.5 1.8 2.1 3.4
Gross national product............... 4.2 3.5 2.0 -.3 3.3 2.7 3.9 2.6 3.7 4.4 4.0 4.6 3.7 .8 1.7 3.3
Real disposable personal income...... 4.3 2.8 1.9 .5 3.4 1.0 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.5 5.8 3.0 4.8 1.9 3.1 2.3
Price indexes:
Gross domestic purchases........... 3.4 3.8 4.1 3.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.4 .6 1.6 2.5 2.0 1.5 2.0
Gross domestic purchases excluding
food and energy................... 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.5 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6
GDP................................ 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.5 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.4 1.7 1.8
GDP excluding food and energy...... 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.6
Personal consumption expenditures.. 4.0 4.4 4.6 3.6 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.7 .9 1.7 2.5 2.1 1.4 1.9
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 8.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 2.2 1.9 .6 .4 .2 1.2 1.5 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.3 3.5 4.4 5.0 4.8 4.0
Personal consumption expenditures
(PCE)................................. 4.1 2.9 2.5 2.0 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.6 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.6 3.6
Durable goods........................ 4.7 .8 3.2 2.5 10.8 6.6 7.8 10.6 1.5 3.8 7.6 8.2 9.9 10.5 5.4 5.5
Nondurable goods..................... 3.0 3.0 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.7 3.0 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.8 4.7 4.6 5.1 4.7 4.1
Services............................. 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.0 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9
Gross private domestic investment...... 1.4 -.5 -8.5 -8.6 -13.8 -7.1 -5.1 -1.5 5.0 .7 1.5 5.7 9.4 12.8 16.8 11.7
Fixed investment..................... 5.1 1.6 -2.9 -3.8 -6.7 -7.1 -5.8 -4.6 -2.1 -.4 3.1 7.4 10.3 10.9 11.6 9.4
Nonresidential..................... 7.8 3.2 -3.9 -6.1 -9.6 -10.9 -9.9 -8.5 -6.0 -3.6 1.7 5.8 9.4 10.6 10.8 10.1
Structures....................... 8.8 4.6 -.6 -1.4 -11.1 -13.7 -18.3 -22.9 -16.1 -14.8 -6.0 -2.1 1.5 3.0 1.3 1.3
Equipment and software........... 7.5 2.7 -5.1 -7.8 -9.0 -9.8 -6.7 -2.7 -2.2 .5 4.4 8.4 12.1 13.1 13.9 12.9
Residential........................ -1.9 -2.3 -.1 2.5 1.4 3.1 4.5 4.7 6.9 6.4 5.9 10.6 12.0 11.3 13.2 8.0
Change in private inventories........ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. 6.5 3.4 -2.9 -9.9 -11.9 -9.6 -4.0 1.7 3.5 1.9 -1.1 .8 6.1 8.4 10.8 9.4
Goods.............................. 8.5 4.8 -3.2 -12.2 -13.0 -12.2 -5.0 1.2 .8 2.3 -1.2 .5 7.1 8.5 10.3 10.1
Services........................... 1.8 .1 -2.0 -4.0 -8.9 -3.1 -1.8 2.7 9.8 1.0 -.9 1.5 3.8 8.3 11.9 7.8
Imports.............................. 11.2 5.9 -1.4 -7.2 -7.6 -3.9 2.1 6.3 9.7 6.0 3.8 3.2 4.9 8.1 10.7 11.1
Goods.............................. 11.3 6.3 -2.6 -7.8 -7.9 -4.8 3.3 7.1 9.8 6.7 4.3 2.8 5.1 8.8 10.8 12.1
Services........................... 10.6 4.2 4.7 -3.7 -5.9 .7 -3.7 2.0 8.9 2.4 1.4 5.0 3.7 4.7 10.0 6.3
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. .4 2.5 3.0 3.2 5.0 4.8 4.0 4.9 3.8 2.7 3.3 2.8 2.2 2.8 1.6 1.8
Federal.............................. -2.2 3.6 1.7 4.0 6.4 6.4 7.3 8.1 8.2 6.1 8.3 6.6 5.5 7.3 2.7 4.8
National defense................... -3.5 4.2 1.3 3.8 6.5 6.2 8.0 8.2 8.5 6.2 12.1 9.0 8.5 12.1 3.8 8.5
Nondefense......................... .3 2.5 2.6 4.2 6.3 6.9 6.2 7.8 7.6 6.1 1.4 2.4 .0 -1.5 .6 -2.2
State and local...................... 1.7 1.9 3.7 2.8 4.2 4.0 2.2 3.3 1.6 .9 .7 .8 .4 .4 1.0 .0
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product...... 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.2 1.7 2.6 3.8 4.5 4.7 4.1 3.6
Gross domestic purchases............. 3.0 2.3 .7 .4 .4 1.6 2.1 3.1 3.1 2.4 2.8 3.7 4.3 5.1 5.1 4.5
Final sales to domestic purchasers... 3.6 2.6 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.1 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.4 4.9 4.4 4.1
Gross national product............... 2.4 1.9 .7 .2 .4 1.0 1.2 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.6 3.7 4.8 5.3 4.7 3.8
Real disposable personal income...... 4.4 2.4 1.3 2.8 1.2 3.5 4.6 1.4 2.9 .7 1.1 3.5 3.9 4.0 3.7 2.1
Price indexes:
Gross domestic purchases........... 2.4 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.5 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.5 2.6
Gross domestic purchases excluding
food and energy................... 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.1
GDP................................ 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.3 2.3
GDP excluding food and energy...... 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.9 2.1
PCE................................ 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.3 2.2
PCE excluding food and energy...... 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5
Market-based PCE\1\................ 2.4 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.3 .8 .9 1.2 1.7 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.4 2.3
Market-based PCE excluding food
and energy\1\..................... 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
1. This index is a supplemental measure that is based on household
expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It
excludes most implicit prices (for example, the services furnished
without payment by financial intermediaries) and the expenses of
nonprofit institutions.
Table 9.--Relation of Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and National Income
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 III 03 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product..................... 10,128.0 10,487.0 11,004.0 11,116.7 11,270.9 11,472.6 11,657.5 11,814.9
Plus: Income receipts from the rest of the
world..................................... 322.4 301.8 329.0 329.8 371.8 373.8 388.0 406.8
Less: Income payments to the rest of the
world..................................... 278.8 274.7 273.9 278.2 284.6 300.3 351.9 368.6
Equals: Gross national product............. 10,171.6 10,514.1 11,059.2 11,168.3 11,358.1 11,546.1 11,693.6 11,853.0
Less: Consumption of fixed capital......... 1,281.5 1,303.9 1,353.9 1,360.6 1,374.2 1,355.0 1,375.2 1,497.9
Less: Statistical discrepancy.............. -89.6 -15.3 25.6 36.6 12.8 63.0 56.4 90.4
Equals: National income.................... 8,979.8 9,225.4 9,679.6 9,771.1 9,971.1 10,128.1 10,262.0 10,264.7
Compensation of employees................ 5,942.1 6,069.5 6,289.0 6,324.7 6,406.7 6,489.4 6,578.5 6,657.4
Wage and salary accruals............... 4,942.8 4,976.3 5,103.6 5,128.6 5,188.9 5,240.7 5,311.4 5,375.0
Supplements to wages and salaries...... 999.3 1,093.2 1,185.5 1,196.1 1,217.8 1,248.8 1,267.2 1,282.3
Proprietors' income with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 771.9 769.6 834.1 852.0 864.7 872.1 901.4 902.9
Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment.................. 167.4 170.9 153.8 148.8 167.1 172.8 172.6 153.8
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 767.3 874.6 1,021.1 1,057.1 1,129.1 1,165.6 1,173.9 1,118.0
Net interest and miscellaneous payments.. 566.3 532.9 543.0 542.8 545.3 554.5 548.5 546.7
Taxes on production and imports less
subsidies............................... 673.3 724.4 751.3 757.4 769.4 782.9 796.3 803.5
Business current transfer payments....... 92.8 80.9 77.7 78.9 80.1 82.7 83.5 76.0
Current surplus of government
enterprises............................. -1.4 2.8 9.5 9.3 8.7 8.1 7.4 6.5
Addendum:
Gross domestic income.................... 10,217.6 10,502.3 10,978.5 11,080.1 11,258.1 11,409.6 11,601.1 11,724.5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
Table 10.--Personal Income and Its Disposition
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 III 03 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income\1\......................... 8,724.1 8,878.9 9,161.8 9,209.3 9,330.0 9,445.0 9,592.7 9,674.3
Compensation of employees, received...... 5,942.1 6,069.5 6,289.0 6,324.7 6,406.7 6,487.9 6,580.0 6,657.4
Wage and salary disbursements.......... 4,942.8 4,976.3 5,103.6 5,128.6 5,188.9 5,239.2 5,312.8 5,375.0
Supplements to wages and salaries...... 999.3 1,093.2 1,185.5 1,196.1 1,217.8 1,248.8 1,267.2 1,282.3
Proprietors' income with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 771.9 769.6 834.1 852.0 864.7 872.1 901.4 902.9
Farm................................... 19.7 9.7 21.8 24.8 24.7 17.9 18.9 13.6
Nonfarm................................ 752.2 759.9 812.3 827.2 840.0 854.2 882.5 889.3
Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment.................. 167.4 170.9 153.8 148.8 167.1 172.8 172.6 153.8
Personal income receipts on assets....... 1,380.0 1,334.6 1,322.7 1,314.4 1,325.8 1,337.1 1,352.3 1,367.8
Personal interest income............... 1,011.0 946.7 929.9 922.8 932.0 936.2 941.7 946.5
Personal dividend income............... 369.0 387.9 392.8 391.6 393.8 400.9 410.6 421.3
Personal current transfer receipts....... 1,193.9 1,282.7 1,335.4 1,346.2 1,350.7 1,379.0 1,400.4 1,415.4
Less: Contributions for government
social insurance........................ 731.1 748.3 773.2 776.7 785.0 803.9 814.0 823.0
Less: Personal current taxes............... 1,237.3 1,051.2 1,001.9 941.7 1,009.4 1,006.6 1,030.6 1,043.7
Equals: Disposable personal income......... 7,486.8 7,827.7 8,159.9 8,267.6 8,320.5 8,438.4 8,562.1 8,630.7
Less: Personal outlays..................... 7,354.5 7,668.5 8,049.3 8,107.8 8,209.4 8,351.6 8,448.7 8,588.1
Equals: Personal saving.................... 132.3 159.2 110.6 159.8 111.1 86.8 113.4 42.6
Personal saving as a percentage of
disposable personal income.............. 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.3 .5
Addendum:
Disposable personal income, billions of
chained (2000) dollars\2\............... 7,333.3 7,559.5 7,733.8 7,822.9 7,849.6 7,897.0 7,951.5 7,990.2
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
1. Personal income is also equal to national income less corporate
profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,
taxes on production and imports less subsidies, contributions for
government social insurance, net interest and miscellaneous payments,
business current transfer payments, current surplus of government
enterprises, and wage accruals less disbursements, plus personal
income receipts on assets, and personal current transfer receipts.
2. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price
deflator for personal consumption expenditures.
Table 11.--Corporate Profits: Level and Percent Change
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of dollars Percent change from preceding period
---------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Quarterly Quarter one
at annual rates rates year ago
--------------------------------------- ------------------------------- -------
2001 2002 2003 III 03 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r 2002 2003 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r III 04r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments......................... 767.3 874.6 1,021.1 1,057.1 1,129.1 1,165.6 1,173.9 1,118.0 14.0 16.8 6.8 3.2 .7 -4.8 5.8
Less: Taxes on corporate income...... 204.1 183.8 234.9 238.7 252.3 256.5 271.2 253.3 -9.9 27.8 5.7 1.6 5.7 -6.6 6.1
Equals: Profits after tax with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments............. 563.2 690.7 786.2 818.4 876.8 909.1 902.7 864.7 22.6 13.8 7.1 3.7 -.7 -4.2 5.7
Net dividends...................... 370.9 390.0 395.3 394.1 396.4 403.4 413.2 424.0 5.2 1.4 .6 1.8 2.4 2.6 7.6
Undistributed profits with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments........... 192.3 300.7 390.9 424.2 480.4 505.7 489.5 440.7 56.4 30.0 13.2 5.3 -3.2 -10.0 3.9
Cash flow:
Net cash flow with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments....................... 944.8 1,058.5 1,173.4 1,210.0 1,273.2 1,279.1 1,273.4 1,271.8 12.0 10.9 5.2 .5 -.4 -.1 5.1
Undistributed profits with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments......... 192.3 300.7 390.9 424.2 480.4 505.7 489.5 440.7 56.4 30.0 13.2 5.3 -3.2 -10.0 3.9
Consumption of fixed capital..... 752.5 757.8 782.5 785.8 792.9 773.4 783.9 831.2 .7 3.3 .9 -2.5 1.4 6.0 5.8
Less: Inventory valuation
adjustment........................ 11.3 -1.2 -14.1 -3.8 -24.3 -37.0 -47.8 -37.8 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Equals: Net cash flow.............. 933.5 1,059.8 1,187.5 1,213.8 1,297.6 1,316.1 1,321.2 1,309.6 13.5 12.1 6.9 1.4 .4 -.9 7.9
Addenda:
Profits before tax (without
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments).......... 707.9 758.0 874.5 881.0 966.2 962.4 988.3 932.8 7.1 15.4 9.7 -.4 2.7 -5.6 5.9
Profits after tax (without
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments).......... 503.8 574.2 639.6 642.3 713.9 705.9 717.1 679.5 14.0 11.4 11.2 -1.1 1.6 -5.3 5.8
Inventory valuation adjustment..... 11.3 -1.2 -14.1 -3.8 -24.3 -37.0 -47.8 -37.8 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Capital consumption adjustment..... 48.1 117.8 160.8 179.9 187.2 240.2 233.3 223.0 144.9 36.5 4.1 28.3 -2.9 -4.4 23.9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
Table 12.--Corporate Profits by Industry: Level and Change From Preceding Period
[Billions of dollars]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Level Change from preceding period
---------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
--------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 III 03 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r 2002 2003 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 767.3 874.6 1,021.1 1,057.1 1,129.1 1,165.6 1,173.9 1,118.0 107.3 146.5 72.0 36.5 8.3 -55.9
Domestic industries.......................... 597.6 716.8 844.2 883.7 913.3 960.3 988.6 929.3 119.2 127.4 29.6 47.0 28.3 -59.3
Financial.................................. 240.4 298.4 327.8 336.4 335.9 355.7 347.8 279.1 58.0 29.4 -.5 19.8 -7.9 -68.7
Nonfinancial............................... 357.2 418.4 516.4 547.3 577.3 604.6 640.8 650.2 61.2 98.0 30.0 27.3 36.2 9.4
Rest of the world............................ 169.7 157.8 176.9 173.4 215.8 205.3 185.3 188.7 -11.9 19.1 42.4 -10.5 -20.0 3.4
Receipts from the rest of the world........ 182.6 206.0 250.7 253.1 293.4 299.0 305.6 313.1 23.4 44.7 40.3 5.6 6.6 7.5
Less: Payments to the rest of the world.... 12.9 48.2 73.8 79.7 77.5 93.7 120.3 124.5 35.3 25.6 -2.2 16.2 26.6 4.2
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation adjustment.................... 719.2 756.8 860.4 877.2 941.9 925.4 940.6 895.0 37.6 103.6 64.7 -16.5 15.2 -45.6
Domestic industries.......................... 549.5 599.0 683.4 703.8 726.1 720.0 755.2 706.3 49.5 84.4 22.3 -6.1 35.2 -48.9
Financial.................................. 227.6 276.2 299.8 306.1 305.3 313.7 306.4 237.6 48.6 23.6 -.8 8.4 -7.3 -68.8
Federal Reserve banks.................... 28.3 22.9 19.2 18.5 17.6 18.2 18.1 19.0 -5.4 -3.7 -.9 .6 -.1 .9
Other financial.......................... 199.3 253.3 280.6 287.6 287.8 295.5 288.3 218.6 54.0 27.3 .2 7.7 -7.2 -69.7
Nonfinancial............................... 322.0 322.8 383.6 397.6 420.7 406.4 448.8 468.7 .8 60.8 23.1 -14.3 42.4 19.9
Utilities................................ 24.7 11.4 18.8 18.6 24.3 23.2 21.5 21.1 -13.3 7.4 5.7 -1.1 -1.7 -.4
Manufacturing............................ 52.6 50.7 67.3 66.8 93.4 81.5 94.8 105.0 -1.9 16.6 26.6 -11.9 13.3 10.2
Durable goods.......................... -25.4 -8.3 -3.5 -7.5 9.3 2.8 14.9 29.8 17.1 4.8 16.8 -6.5 12.1 14.9
Fabricated metal products............ 9.9 9.3 10.1 10.1 13.2 11.8 12.1 13.1 -.6 .8 3.1 -1.4 .3 1.0
Machinery............................ 2.7 1.6 -.5 1.1 1.1 2.2 3.6 6.7 -1.1 -2.1 .0 1.1 1.4 3.1
Computer and electronic products..... -48.5 -32.9 -15.4 -15.2 -14.0 -17.2 -15.9 -10.5 15.6 17.5 1.2 -3.2 1.3 5.4
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components...................... 1.9 -.2 -3.2 -4.3 -4.4 -8.1 -1.6 -5.5 -2.1 -3.0 -.1 -3.7 6.5 -3.9
Motor vehicles, bodies and trailers,
and parts........................... -9.2 -6.0 -6.2 -11.4 -5.0 -.5 -1.2 5.0 3.2 -.2 6.4 4.5 -.7 6.2
Other durable goods.................. 17.8 19.8 11.8 12.2 18.4 14.6 18.0 21.2 2.0 -8.0 6.2 -3.8 3.4 3.2
Nondurable goods....................... 78.0 58.9 70.7 74.2 84.1 78.6 79.9 75.2 -19.1 11.8 9.9 -5.5 1.3 -4.7
Food and beverage and tobacco
products............................ 28.0 24.1 27.7 28.6 34.2 31.1 27.9 26.4 -3.9 3.6 5.6 -3.1 -3.2 -1.5
Petroleum and coal products.......... 29.6 4.0 14.8 12.6 18.7 24.5 27.3 20.0 -25.6 10.8 6.1 5.8 2.8 -7.3
Chemical products.................... 12.6 17.1 21.2 24.5 21.3 14.1 13.7 14.8 4.5 4.1 -3.2 -7.2 -.4 1.1
Other nondurable goods............... 7.8 13.6 7.1 8.5 9.8 8.9 11.0 14.0 5.8 -6.5 1.3 -.9 2.1 3.0
Wholesale trade.......................... 52.1 51.0 47.9 53.1 50.1 46.0 52.2 61.1 -1.1 -3.1 -3.0 -4.1 6.2 8.9
Retail trade............................. 71.0 78.1 77.7 78.9 74.7 80.0 73.1 64.7 7.1 -.4 -4.2 5.3 -6.9 -8.4
Transportation and warehousing........... 1.3 -1.3 10.5 11.9 12.4 11.7 15.5 7.3 -2.6 11.8 .5 -.7 3.8 -8.2
Information.............................. -25.6 -11.2 -.7 6.7 -1.0 -6.6 16.5 21.6 14.4 10.5 -7.7 -5.6 23.1 5.1
Other nonfinancial....................... 145.9 144.2 162.1 161.7 166.8 170.7 175.1 187.9 -1.7 17.9 5.1 3.9 4.4 12.8
Rest of the world............................ 169.7 157.8 176.9 173.4 215.8 205.3 185.3 188.7 -11.9 19.1 42.4 -10.5 -20.0 3.4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
Note.--Estimates in this table are based on the 1997 North
American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
Table 13.--Gross Value Added of Nonfinancial Domestic Corporate Business
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 III 03 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross value added of nonfinancial
corporate business.................... 5,293.5 5,377.7 5,606.8 5,669.0 5,767.5 5,839.4 5,955.5 6,036.7
Consumption of fixed capital............... 646.8 655.7 676.4 679.0 684.3 671.8 680.9 726.8
Net value added............................ 4,646.7 4,722.0 4,930.5 4,990.0 5,083.3 5,167.6 5,274.7 5,309.8
Compensation of employees................ 3,595.9 3,601.3 3,696.2 3,717.9 3,771.0 3,818.1 3,878.6 3,928.2
Wage and salary accruals............... 3,016.5 2,971.0 3,006.9 3,022.4 3,062.8 3,089.9 3,138.5 3,179.2
Supplements to wages and salaries...... 579.3 630.3 689.3 695.4 708.3 728.1 740.1 749.0
Taxes on production and imports less
subsidies............................... 439.1 465.1 483.4 489.0 495.0 501.1 508.4 511.7
Net operating surplus.................... 611.8 655.5 750.8 783.2 817.2 848.5 887.6 870.0
Net interest and miscellaneous
payments.............................. 204.0 181.7 170.8 170.2 172.1 174.8 177.2 177.3
Business current transfer payments..... 50.6 55.5 63.5 65.7 67.8 69.0 69.6 42.5
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments........................... 357.2 418.4 516.4 547.3 577.3 604.6 640.8 650.2
Taxes on corporate income............ 111.7 89.0 130.0 132.2 146.8 147.7 164.9 167.5
Profits after tax with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments......................... 245.5 329.4 386.4 415.1 430.5 456.9 475.9 482.7
Net dividends...................... 245.4 254.9 275.4 265.6 273.6 270.6 265.5 278.7
Undistributed profits with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments........... .1 74.5 111.0 149.5 156.9 186.2 210.5 204.0
Addenda:
Profits before tax (without inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments)............................ 310.6 324.1 397.7 401.4 445.0 443.4 496.5 506.5
Profits after tax (without inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments)............................ 198.9 235.1 267.7 269.2 298.2 295.6 331.7 338.9
Inventory valuation adjustment........... 11.3 -1.2 -14.1 -3.8 -24.3 -37.0 -47.8 -37.8
Capital consumption adjustment........... 35.2 95.6 132.9 149.7 156.6 198.3 192.0 181.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of chained (2000) dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross value added of nonfinancial
corporate business\1\................. 5,224.5 5,275.9 5,423.0 5,471.9 5,552.0 5,598.7 5,657.4 5,731.7
Consumption of fixed capital\2\............ 615.8 628.0 647.2 649.5 655.1 654.1 657.2 697.3
Net value added\3\......................... 4,608.7 4,647.9 4,775.8 4,822.4 4,897.0 4,944.6 5,000.2 5,034.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Price, costs, and profits per unit of real
gross value added of nonfinancial
corporate business:
Price per unit of real gross value added
of nonfinancial corporate business\4\... 1.013 1.019 1.034 1.036 1.039 1.043 1.053 1.053
Compensation of employees (unit labor
cost)................................... .688 .683 .682 .679 .679 .682 .686 .685
Unit nonlabor cost....................... .257 .257 .258 .256 .255 .253 .253 .255
Consumption of fixed capital........... .124 .124 .125 .124 .123 .120 .120 .127
Taxes on production and imports less
subsidies plus business current
transfer payments..................... .094 .099 .101 .101 .101 .102 .102 .097
Net interest and miscellaneous payments .039 .034 .032 .031 .031 .031 .031 .031
Corporate profits with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments (unit
profits from current production)........ .068 .079 .095 .100 .104 .108 .113 .113
Taxes on corporate income.............. .021 .017 .024 .024 .026 .026 .029 .029
Profits after tax with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments........................... .047 .062 .071 .076 .078 .082 .084 .084
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
1. Effective December 22, 2004, chained-dollar gross value added of
nonfinancial corporate business was revised beginning with 1929. The
current-dollar gross value added is deflated by a revised chain-type
price index calculated using the gross value added chain-type price
index for nonfinancial industries from the comprehensive revision of
the GDP-by-industry accounts.
2. Chained-dollar consumption of fixed capital of nonfinancial
corporate business is calculated as the product of the chain-type
quantity index and the 2000 current-dollar value of the corresponding
series, divided by 100.
3. Chained-dollar net value added of nonfinancial corporate
business is the difference between the gross value added and the
consumption of fixed capital.
4. The deflator for gross value added of nonfinancial corporate
business divided by 100.
Note.--Estimates in this table are based on the 1997 North
American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
Appendix Table A.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Aggregates and Price Indexes: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04 II 04 III 04r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP) and
related aggregates:
GDP............................... .8 1.9 3.0 2.1 -.5 1.2 -1.4 1.6 3.4 2.4 2.6 .7 1.9 4.1 7.4 4.2 4.5 3.3 4.0
Goods............................. -1.7 1.2 4.3 .2 -4.5 -1.3 -5.5 2.6 4.1 .9 4.7 -3.2 4.3 4.1 17.7 5.8 8.2 2.5 8.3
Services.......................... 2.4 3.0 2.3 3.6 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.8 3.4 4.2 2.2 3.0 .9 3.6 1.1 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.8
Structures........................ .4 -2.4 3.0 .4 .4 7.0 -4.3 -8.5 .9 -3.3 -2.4 .9 .0 7.3 13.9 5.4 .7 12.7 -2.5
Motor vehicle output.............. -4.7 11.6 4.2 -12.6 -18.5 36.3 -5.7 22.0 7.3 10.3 18.4 6.0 -12.4 3.0 26.3 2.9 8.8 -15.2 10.4
GDP excluding motor vehicle
output........................... 1.0 1.5 3.0 2.7 .2 .2 -1.2 .9 3.3 2.1 2.1 .5 2.5 4.1 6.8 4.2 4.3 4.0 3.8
Final sales of computers\1\....... 13.8 8.8 41.0 18.6 48.2 -11.2 -19.4 23.7 -3.7 12.2 46.0 30.9 35.1 37.8 93.7 29.0 .1 .1 20.7
GDP excluding final sales of
computers........................ .6 1.8 2.8 1.9 -.9 1.4 -1.2 1.4 3.4 2.3 2.3 .5 1.7 3.8 6.8 4.0 4.5 3.3 3.9
Farm gross value added\2\......... -8.3 6.5 4.0 -18.2 -1.3 -31.0 -20.4 94.2 -39.2 69.9 26.1 -19.5 -13.9 52.3 .5 -30.6 -31.3 -21.3 36.4
Nonfarm business gross value
added\3\......................... .4 1.8 3.8 2.2 -1.1 1.2 -2.9 1.2 4.0 1.7 3.6 1.4 2.4 5.3 9.3 4.6 5.7 4.2 4.2
Price indexes:
GDP............................... 2.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 3.3 3.1 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.8 3.2 1.4
GDP excluding food and energy..... 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.7 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.3 .8 1.1 1.5 2.3 2.7 1.8
GDP excluding final sales of
computers........................ 2.7 1.9 2.0 1.9 3.8 3.3 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.9 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.9 3.3 1.5
Gross domestic purchases.......... 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.3 1.0 .6 1.2 2.5 1.8 1.9 3.7 .4 1.7 1.4 3.4 3.5 1.9
Gross domestic purchases excluding
food and energy.................. 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.2 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.5 2.5 1.7
Gross domestic purchases excluding
final sales of computers to
domestic purchasers.............. 2.3 1.7 2.2 2.0 3.3 2.6 1.3 .9 1.4 2.6 2.0 2.1 4.0 .5 1.9 1.5 3.6 3.7 2.1
Personal consumption expenditures
(PCE)............................ 2.1 1.4 1.9 1.8 3.3 2.6 .6 .6 .9 2.9 2.0 1.4 3.2 .7 1.6 1.2 3.3 3.1 1.3
Personal consumption expenditures
excluding food and energy........ 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.5 2.8 2.1 1.4 2.6 1.2 2.0 2.0 .9 1.5 1.1 .9 1.3 2.1 1.7 .9
Market-based PCE\4\............... 1.9 1.1 1.9 1.9 2.8 2.1 .8 -.5 .6 2.9 1.8 1.5 3.0 .6 2.0 .8 3.2 3.7 1.4
Market-based PCE excluding food
and energy\4\.................... 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.3 1.9 1.6 1.0 1.8 1.7 1.1 .9 1.1 1.3 .8 1.8 2.1 1.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
1. For some components of final sales of computers, includes
computer parts.
2. Farm output less intermediate goods and services purchased.
3. Consists of GDP less gross value added of farm, of
households and institutions, and of general government.
4. This index is a supplemental measure that is based on household
expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It
excludes most implicit prices (for example, the services furnished
without payment by financial intermediaries) and the expenses of
nonprofit institutions.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Explanatory Note: NIPA Measures of Quantities and Prices
Current-dollar GDP is a measure of the market value of goods, services, and structures produced in
the economy in a particular period. Changes in current-dollar GDP can be decomposed into quantity and
price components. Quantities, or "real" measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with the
reference year -- at present, the year 2000 -- equal to 100.
Annual changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates
weights from two adjacent years. (Quarterly changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a
Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent quarters; quarterly indexes are adjusted for
consistency to the annual indexes before percent changes are calculated.) For example, the 2002-03
annual percent change in real GDP uses prices for 2002 and 2003 as weights, and the 2002-03 annual
percent change in GDP prices uses quantities for 2002 and 2003 as weights. These annual changes are
"chained" (multiplied) together to form time series of quantity and price indexes. Percent changes in
Fisher indexes are not affected by the choice of reference year. (BEA also publishes a measure of the
price level known as the implicit price deflator (IPD), which is calculated as the ratio of the
current-dollar value to the corresponding chained-dollar value, multiplied by 100. The values of the IPD
are very close to the values of the corresponding "chain-type" price index.)
Index numbers of quantity and price indexes for GDP and its major components are presented in this
release in tables 5 and 6. Percent changes from the preceding period are presented in tables 1, 4, 7, and 8.
Contributions by major components to changes in real GDP are presented in table 2.
Measures of real GDP and its major components are also presented in dollar-denominated form,
designated "chained (2000) dollar estimates." For most series, these estimates, which are presented in
table 3, are computed by multiplying the current-dollar value in 2000 by a corresponding quantity index
number and then dividing by 100. For example, if a current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in
2000 and if real output for this component increased 10 percent in 2001, then the chained (2000) dollar
value of this component in 2001 would be $110 (= $100 x 110 / 100). Percent changes calculated from
chained-dollar estimates and from chain-type quantity indexes are the same; any differences will be small
and due to rounding.
Chained-dollar values for the detailed GDP components will not necessarily sum to the chained-dollar
estimate of GDP (or to any intermediate aggregate). This is because the relative prices used as weights
for any period other than the reference year differ from those of the reference year. A measure of the
extent of such differences is provided by a "residual" line, which indicates the difference between GDP
(or other major aggregate) and the sum of the most detailed components in the table. For periods close to
the reference year, when there usually has not been much change in the relative prices that are used as
weights, the residuals tend to be small, and the chained-dollar estimates can be used to approximate the
contributions to growth and to aggregate the detailed estimates. For periods further from the reference
year, the residuals tend to be larger, and the chained-dollar estimates are less useful for analyses of
contributions to growth. Thus, the contributions to percent change shown in table 2 provide a better
measure of the composition of GDP growth. In particular, for components for which relative prices are
changing rapidly, calculation of contributions using chained-dollar estimates may be misleading even just
a few years from the reference year.
Reference: "Chained-Dollar Indexes: Issues, Tips on Their Use, and Upcoming Changes," November
2003 Survey, pp. 8-16.
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