 |
The tables in this release are available in an XLS spreadsheet, and the entire release is available in PDF format. The tables in this release are available in an XLS spreadsheet. The entire release will be available in PDF format shortly.-->
Information about the upcoming 2003 benchmark revision is also available.
 |
Virginia H. Mannering: (202) 606-5304 BEA 03-29
Recorded message: (202) 606-5306
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: SECOND QUARTER 2003 (ADVANCE)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter of 2003,
according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real
GDP increased 1.4 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that
are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The second-
quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on August 28,
2003.
The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), federal defense spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and
residential fixed investment. The contributions of these components were partly offset by negative
contributions from private inventory investment and from exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in
the calculation of GDP, increased.
BOX
The Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to release the results of its 12th comprehensive (or
benchmark) revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPA's) on December 10, 2003. The
annual revision of the NIPA's that would normally take place this summer will instead be combined
with the upcoming comprehensive revision. An article in the June 2003 issue of the Survey of Current
Business discusses the changes in definitions and concepts that will be implemented in the revision.
Future articles will discuss changes in presentation and in statistical methods.
FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (1996)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA's Web site at <www.bea.gov/newsreleases/rels.htm>.
The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter primarily reflected upturns in federal
defense spending and in nonresidential fixed investment, and an acceleration in PCE that were partly
offset by an upturn in imports.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 0.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent in the first.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.7 percent in
the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the first.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 3.3 percent in the second quarter, compared
with an increase of 2.0 percent in the first. Durable goods purchases increased 22.6 percent, in contrast
to a decrease of 2.0 percent. Nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 6.1
percent. Services expenditures increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 6.9 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 4.4 percent in the first. Nonresidential structures increased 4.8 percent, in contrast to a
decrease of 2.9 percent. Equipment and software increased 7.5 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 4.8
percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 6.0 percent, compared with an increase of 10.1
percent.
Real exports of goods and services decreased 3.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with a
decrease of 1.3 percent in the first. Real imports of goods and services increased 9.2 percent, in contrast
to a decrease of 6.2 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 25.1 percent in
the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in the first. National defense increased
44.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 3.3 percent. Nondefense decreased 4.1 percent, in contrast to
an increase of 8.4 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 1.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.2 percent.
The real change in private inventories subtracted 0.77 percentage point from the second-quarter
change in real GDP, after subtracting 0.82 percentage point from the first-quarter change. Private
businesses reduced inventories $17.9 billion in the second quarter, following increases of $4.8 billion in
the first quarter and $25.8 billion in the fourth.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 3.2
percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.3 percent in the first.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 3.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent in the
first.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $74.4 billion (3.3 percent) in the second quarter,
compared with an increase of $82.3 billion (3.7 percent) in the first. Personal tax and nontax payments
increased $8.3 billion (3.1 percent), in contrast to a decrease of $12.9 billion (4.7 percent).
Disposable personal income increased $66.1 billion in the second quarter, compared with an
increase of $95.1 billion in the first. Real disposable personal income increased 2.4 percent, compared
with an increase of 2.1 percent.
Personal outlays increased $85.5 billion (4.5 percent) in the second quarter, compared with an
increase of $86.9 billion (4.6 percent) in the first. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less
personal outlays -- was $270.6 billion in the second quarter, compared with $290.0 billion in the first.
The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- decreased from 3.6
percent in the first quarter to 3.3 percent in the second.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
3.4 percent, or $88.9 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $10,777.3 billion. In the first quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent, or $99.6 billion.
BOX
Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimates of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "Business Situation."
BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current
Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site:
<www.bea.gov>
Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the
following telephone numbers:
(202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product
(202) 606-5303 Personal income and outlays
(202) 606-5362 U.S. international transactions
Most of BEA's estimates and analyses are published in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's
monthly journal. Subscriptions and single copies of the printed Survey are for sale by the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: <bookstore.gpo.gov>;
phone: 202-512-1800; fax: 202-512-2250; mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001.
* * *
Next release -- August 28, 2003, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for:
Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2003 (Preliminary)
Corporate Profits: Second Quarter 2003
Comparisons of Revisions to GDP
Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: "Advance" estimates, based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source
agency, are released near the end of the first month after the end of
the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,
"preliminary" and "final" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively. The
"latest" estimates reflect the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.
Annual revisions are usually carried out each summer and cover the quarters of the most recent calendar
year and of the 2 preceding years. Comprehensive (or benchmark) revisions are carried out at about 5-year
intervals and incorporate definitional and classificational changes that update the accounts to portray more
accurately the evolving U.S. economy and statistical changes that update the accounts to reflect the introduction of
new and improved methodologies and the incorporation of newly available and revised source data.
The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of GDP for the
different vintages of the estimates. These comparisons can be used to assess the likely size of future revisions. For
example, two-thirds of the revisions between the quarterly change in the advance estimate of real GDP and that in
the final estimate were within a range of -0.6 to +0.9 percentage point.
Thus, based on past history, the second-quarter change in real GDP now
estimated at 2.4 percent at an annual rate, is not likely to be revised below
1.8 percent or above 3.3 percent in the next two releases.
Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
[Annual rates]
Vintages Average without Range
compared regard to sign Two-thirds Nine-tenths
of revisions of revisions
Current-dollar GDP
Advance to preliminary..... 0.6 -0.5 to 0.8 -0.9 to 1.4
Advance to final........... .7 - .7 to 1.0 -1.0 to 1.6
Preliminary to final....... .3 - .3 to .4 - .6 to .7
Advance to latest.......... 1.3 - .6 to 2.0 -1.8 to 3.6
Preliminary to latest...... 1.2 -1.0 to 1.6 -1.5 to 3.0
Final to latest............ 1.2 -0.9 to 1.8 -1.6 to 2.9
Real GDP
Advance to preliminary..... 0.5 -0.5 to 0.7 -0.9 to 1.2
Advance to final........... .6 - .6 to .9 -1.0 to 1.3
Preliminary to final....... .3 - .3 to .4 - .5 to .6
Advance to latest.......... 1.4 -1.1 to 1.9 -1.5 to 3.2
Preliminary to latest...... 1.3 -1.0 to 1.9 -1.7 to 2.8
Final to latest........... 1.4 -1.1 to 2.1 -1.7 to 3.0
NOTE.--These comparisons are based on the period from 1978 through 2001 for the first three comparisons in each group and on the period from
1978 through 1999 for the last three comparisons in each group.
Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). 3.8 .3 2.4 5.2 7.1 2.6 4.8 .6 1.1 -.6 -1.6 -.3 2.7 5.0 1.3 4.0 1.4 1.4 2.4
Personal consumption expenditures... 4.4 2.5 3.1 4.6 5.0 5.3 3.0 3.8 2.1 2.4 1.4 1.5 6.0 3.1 1.8 4.2 1.7 2.0 3.3
Durable goods..................... 8.2 6.0 7.3 10.3 10.1 17.8 -3.7 8.1 -5.3 11.5 5.3 4.6 33.6 -6.3 2.0 22.8 -8.2 -2.0 22.6
Nondurable goods.................. 3.9 2.0 3.2 2.5 7.5 2.2 4.9 2.0 2.7 2.3 -.3 1.3 3.6 7.9 -.1 1.0 5.1 6.1 .1
Services.......................... 3.8 2.0 2.2 4.5 2.8 4.4 3.6 3.9 3.3 .6 1.5 .9 2.1 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.2 .9 1.5
Gross private domestic investment... 6.2 -10.7 1.0 11.0 13.7 2.3 17.3 -6.0 -3.4 -19.7 -17.6 -5.2 -17.3 18.2 7.9 3.6 6.3 -5.3 1.3
Fixed investment.................. 6.1 -3.8 -3.1 5.9 2.9 13.3 6.7 .2 -2.4 -2.2 -11.1 -4.3 -8.9 -.5 -1.0 -.3 4.4 -.1 6.6
Nonresidential.................. 7.8 -5.2 -5.7 7.7 3.0 15.0 10.2 3.5 -3.2 -5.4 -14.5 -6.0 -10.9 -5.8 -2.4 -.8 2.3 -4.4 6.9
Structures.................... 6.5 -1.7 -16.4 -6.3 6.1 13.8 8.2 12.1 3.6 -3.1 -8.4 2.9 -30.1 -14.2 -17.6 -21.4 -9.9 -2.9 4.8
Equipment and software........ 8.2 -6.4 -1.7 12.5 2.1 15.5 10.9 .9 -5.4 -6.3 -16.7 -9.2 -2.5 -2.7 3.3 6.7 6.2 -4.8 7.5
Residential..................... 1.1 .3 3.9 .9 2.7 8.3 -3.0 -9.3 .0 8.2 -.5 .4 -3.5 14.2 2.7 1.1 9.4 10.1 6.0
Change in private inventories..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... 9.7 -5.4 -1.6 10.6 12.6 7.7 14.6 11.6 -4.0 -6.0 -12.4 -17.3 -9.6 3.5 14.3 4.6 -5.8 -1.3 -3.1
Goods........................... 11.3 -5.9 -3.6 13.2 15.3 6.7 16.1 19.5 -7.1 -6.1 -16.1 -18.6 -7.9 -3.4 15.9 4.1 -11.5 1.9 -2.6
Services........................ 6.0 -4.0 3.2 4.7 6.4 10.2 11.2 -5.9 4.4 -6.0 -2.5 -13.9 -13.8 21.7 10.7 5.9 8.0 -8.0 -4.2
Imports........................... 13.2 -2.9 3.7 14.5 9.4 14.7 18.6 13.8 -1.6 -7.9 -6.8 -11.8 -5.3 8.5 22.2 3.3 7.4 -6.2 9.2
Goods........................... 13.5 -3.3 3.9 15.4 9.8 13.7 20.3 13.6 -1.8 -9.2 -9.4 -9.6 -3.3 3.7 27.9 3.4 6.2 -6.7 15.7
Services........................ 11.6 -.5 2.1 9.7 7.1 20.6 9.6 15.1 -.5 .3 8.5 -23.2 -16.5 35.7 -2.1 3.1 13.0 -4.0 -17.6
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 2.7 3.7 4.4 5.3 7.1 -1.2 4.6 -1.0 2.9 5.7 5.6 -1.1 10.5 5.6 1.4 2.9 4.6 .4 7.5
Federal........................... 1.3 4.8 7.5 7.4 9.9 -13.2 16.0 -7.2 2.0 9.5 6.0 1.2 13.5 7.4 7.5 4.3 11.0 .7 25.1
National defense................ -.1 5.0 9.3 14.0 10.0 -19.9 15.0 -6.1 4.7 8.3 2.7 4.6 14.3 11.6 7.8 6.9 11.0 -3.3 44.1
Nondefense...................... 3.6 4.5 4.3 -3.6 9.7 .3 17.9 -9.2 -2.6 11.8 12.0 -4.5 12.1 .4 6.9 -.3 11.1 8.4 -4.1
State and local................... 3.5 3.1 2.8 4.2 5.6 5.6 -.8 2.4 3.3 3.8 5.4 -2.3 8.9 4.6 -1.7 2.2 1.2 .2 -1.5
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product... 3.7 1.5 1.8 4.3 5.2 4.4 3.1 1.7 1.3 2.8 -.4 -.2 4.2 2.4 -.1 3.4 1.1 2.3 3.2
Gross domestic purchases.......... 4.4 .4 3.0 5.8 6.8 3.6 5.7 1.2 1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -.1 2.9 5.6 2.6 3.9 2.9 .6 3.8
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 4.3 1.6 2.4 4.9 5.0 5.4 3.9 2.4 1.4 2.2 .0 .1 4.3 3.0 1.3 3.3 2.6 1.4 4.6
Gross national product (GNP)...... 3.7 .2 2.1 4.8 7.6 2.2 5.1 .2 1.6 -1.4 -.8 -1.1 3.7 3.7 .4 4.4 1.4 1.4 .....
Disposable personal income........ 4.8 1.8 4.2 1.5 4.8 8.4 4.8 4.3 1.8 -.1 -.6 10.5 -7.6 14.5 3.9 1.8 1.4 2.1 2.4
Current-dollar measures:
GDP............................. 5.9 2.6 3.6 6.5 8.9 5.7 7.3 2.2 3.2 3.0 .9 1.9 2.2 6.5 2.5 5.1 3.2 3.8 3.4
Final sales of domestic product. 5.9 3.9 3.0 5.6 7.0 7.6 5.5 3.4 3.4 6.6 2.1 2.0 3.6 3.7 1.2 4.5 2.9 4.8 4.1
Gross domestic purchases........ 7.0 2.4 4.2 7.8 9.1 7.4 8.0 3.4 3.4 2.1 .6 -.2 3.4 6.9 4.9 5.2 4.7 4.1 4.1
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 7.0 3.6 3.6 6.9 7.3 9.3 6.2 4.6 3.6 5.5 1.7 -.1 4.8 4.2 3.6 4.6 4.4 5.0 4.8
GNP............................. 5.9 2.6 3.3 6.1 9.4 5.3 7.5 1.9 3.7 2.2 1.7 1.1 3.2 5.1 1.6 5.5 3.3 3.8 .....
Disposable personal income...... 7.4 3.8 5.6 3.7 7.3 12.2 7.2 6.4 4.0 3.2 1.2 10.4 -6.9 15.8 6.7 3.5 3.2 4.9 3.3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 2.--Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change at annual rate:
Gross domestic product.......... 3.8 .3 2.4 5.2 7.1 2.6 4.8 .6 1.1 -.6 -1.6 -.3 2.7 5.0 1.3 4.0 1.4 1.4 2.4
Percentage points at annual rates:
Personal consumption expenditures. 2.94 1.67 2.15 3.14 3.45 3.54 2.11 2.54 1.37 1.53 .92 .97 4.05 2.22 1.22 2.93 1.19 1.40 2.34
Durable goods................... .65 .48 .59 .81 .81 1.36 -.30 .63 -.44 .87 .42 .36 2.45 -.55 .16 1.74 -.72 -.17 1.68
Nondurable goods................ .77 .39 .64 .51 1.48 .45 .99 .40 .52 .45 -.07 .25 .73 1.57 -.02 .22 1.01 1.21 .02
Services........................ 1.51 .80 .92 1.81 1.16 1.73 1.43 1.51 1.29 .21 .57 .35 .87 1.20 1.08 .97 .90 .36 .64
Gross private domestic investment. 1.08 -1.90 .15 1.85 2.32 .39 2.92 -1.09 -.55 -3.65 -3.09 -.81 -2.88 2.53 1.16 .55 .93 -.83 .20
Fixed investment................ 1.03 -.65 -.50 1.01 .53 2.15 1.15 .04 -.41 -.38 -1.95 -.72 -1.49 -.07 -.15 -.03 .65 -.02 .97
Nonresidential................ .98 -.66 -.68 .97 .41 1.80 1.28 .46 -.41 -.71 -1.93 -.73 -1.33 -.66 -.27 -.08 .24 -.47 .69
Structures.................. .20 -.05 -.52 -.20 .18 .40 .25 .37 .12 -.10 -.29 .10 -1.12 -.44 -.53 -.62 -.25 -.07 .11
Equipment and software...... .78 -.61 -.15 1.17 .22 1.41 1.03 .09 -.53 -.61 -1.64 -.83 -.21 -.22 .26 .53 .49 -.40 .58
Residential................... .05 .01 .18 .04 .12 .35 -.13 -.42 .00 .34 -.02 .02 -.16 .60 .12 .05 .41 .45 .28
Change in private inventories... .06 -1.24 .65 .84 1.80 -1.77 1.77 -1.12 -.14 -3.27 -1.14 -.09 -1.39 2.60 1.31 .58 .28 -.82 -.77
Net exports of goods and services. -.75 -.18 -.67 -.75 .04 -1.17 -1.00 -.72 -.23 .53 -.42 -.24 -.28 -.75 -1.40 -.01 -1.59 .78 -1.56
Exports......................... 1.04 -.59 -.17 1.08 1.31 .82 1.53 1.25 -.46 -.69 -1.42 -1.94 -.99 .33 1.29 .45 -.59 -.13 -.30
Goods......................... .85 -.47 -.26 .94 1.11 .51 1.18 1.44 -.60 -.49 -1.34 -1.49 -.56 -.23 .99 .28 -.82 .13 -.17
Services...................... .19 -.13 .09 .14 .20 .31 .35 -.19 .14 -.20 -.08 -.45 -.42 .56 .30 .17 .23 -.25 -.13
Imports......................... -1.79 .42 -.50 -1.83 -1.27 -1.99 -2.54 -1.97 .23 1.22 1.00 1.70 .70 -1.08 -2.69 -.47 -1.00 .91 -1.26
Goods......................... -1.54 .40 -.43 -1.64 -1.12 -1.56 -2.32 -1.64 .22 1.21 1.18 1.17 .37 -.40 -2.74 -.40 -.71 .81 -1.73
Services...................... -.24 .01 -.07 -.19 -.15 -.43 -.21 -.32 .01 .01 -.18 .53 .33 -.68 .05 -.07 -.30 .10 .47
Government consumption
expenditures and gross investment .49 .65 .81 .93 1.26 -.20 .83 -.18 .51 .99 1.00 -.21 1.85 1.04 .27 .56 .85 .08 1.40
Federal......................... .08 .29 .47 .44 .60 -.85 .91 -.45 .12 .54 .36 .07 .80 .47 .47 .29 .70 .05 1.58
National defense.............. .00 .19 .37 .52 .39 -.86 .54 -.24 .17 .30 .10 .18 .54 .46 .32 .29 .46 -.15 1.69
Nondefense.................... .08 .10 .10 -.08 .21 .01 .37 -.21 -.06 .24 .25 -.11 .26 .01 .16 -.01 .25 .20 -.10
State and local................. .41 .36 .34 .49 .67 .65 -.08 .28 .39 .45 .64 -.28 1.05 .56 -.21 .27 .15 .03 -.18
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1996) dollars
------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------------------
2002 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 2002 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 2002 I 03 II 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP)... 10,446.2 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,588.8 10,688.4 10,777.3 9,439.9 9,392.4 9,485.6 9,518.2 9,552.0 9,608.1 225.4 33.8 56.1
Personal consumption expenditures. 7,303.7 7,254.7 7,360.7 7,425.4 7,512.5 7,591.2 6,576.0 6,542.4 6,609.9 6,637.9 6,670.9 6,726.0 198.8 33.0 55.1
Durable goods................... 871.9 856.9 897.8 873.9 861.2 897.5 999.9 980.7 1,032.4 1,010.6 1,005.4 1,057.9 68.0 -5.2 52.5
Motor vehicles and parts...... 376.1 362.1 400.7 375.9 366.5 392.0 382.4 369.1 407.6 382.8 374.9 402.8 20.5 -7.9 27.9
Furniture and household
equipment.................... 318.7 319.1 319.2 319.4 314.9 320.4 438.1 435.2 441.4 447.5 447.8 464.4 40.1 .3 16.6
Other......................... 177.1 175.8 177.9 178.6 179.8 185.2 185.8 184.1 187.0 188.1 191.3 197.8 10.5 3.2 6.5
Nondurable goods................ 2,115.0 2,108.2 2,116.9 2,150.0 2,206.8 2,196.4 1,929.5 1,920.9 1,925.8 1,950.0 1,978.9 1,979.2 59.7 28.9 .3
Food.......................... 1,029.4 1,023.9 1,024.8 1,043.9 1,070.1 1,075.5 902.3 899.2 897.9 910.7 929.7 928.9 15.3 19.0 -.8
Clothing and shoes............ 324.3 323.9 321.0 326.6 324.5 325.5 357.0 355.1 355.3 361.8 364.0 368.6 19.3 2.2 4.6
Gasoline, fuel oil, and
other energy goods........... 173.5 174.7 178.2 184.7 211.1 191.4 157.5 156.5 157.5 158.9 159.2 154.9 6.3 .3 -4.3
Gasoline and oil............ 158.5 160.7 163.5 167.4 191.4 174.7 145.1 144.7 145.4 145.1 146.2 143.4 6.3 1.1 -2.8
Fuel oil and coal........... 15.0 14.0 14.7 17.3 19.7 16.7 12.7 12.1 12.4 14.0 13.3 11.9 .1 -.7 -1.4
Other......................... 587.8 585.6 592.9 594.8 601.1 604.0 515.8 513.1 518.0 521.9 528.9 531.3 20.3 7.0 2.4
Services........................ 4,316.8 4,289.5 4,346.0 4,401.5 4,444.6 4,497.3 3,675.6 3,666.2 3,687.0 3,707.0 3,714.9 3,729.0 80.7 7.9 14.1
Housing....................... 1,071.5 1,066.0 1,078.0 1,090.1 1,101.9 1,111.0 880.1 878.5 882.1 885.8 889.9 893.8 14.1 4.1 3.9
Household operation........... 405.2 400.9 406.3 414.2 422.4 428.1 384.7 382.9 384.7 389.9 388.5 389.3 2.1 -1.4 .8
Electricity and gas......... 148.2 144.9 147.4 156.5 162.1 167.6 136.4 133.6 135.7 142.8 140.7 139.6 1.9 -2.1 -1.1
Other household operation... 257.0 256.1 258.9 257.7 260.4 260.6 248.4 249.5 249.1 247.0 247.8 249.9 .2 .8 2.1
Transportation................ 275.8 275.6 276.1 278.3 278.0 278.0 250.3 250.3 249.8 250.1 250.1 248.1 -.8 .0 -2.0
Medical care.................. 1,148.5 1,139.3 1,158.8 1,176.9 1,192.0 1,213.3 978.6 974.7 984.4 992.0 1,002.1 1,010.2 40.3 10.1 8.1
Recreation.................... 285.1 283.8 285.9 291.8 292.7 296.2 237.5 237.1 237.1 240.3 238.8 240.2 4.3 -1.5 1.4
Other......................... 1,130.7 1,123.8 1,140.9 1,150.2 1,157.5 1,170.7 942.7 941.0 947.0 947.5 943.8 945.6 20.0 -3.7 1.8
Gross private domestic investment. 1,593.2 1,588.0 1,597.3 1,628.1 1,611.2 1,611.5 1,589.6 1,583.9 1,598.0 1,622.4 1,600.4 1,605.5 15.0 -22.0 5.1
Fixed investment................ 1,589.3 1,584.6 1,579.7 1,603.6 1,610.7 1,630.7 1,577.3 1,572.6 1,571.6 1,588.5 1,587.9 1,613.4 -50.1 -.6 25.5
Nonresidential................ 1,117.4 1,115.8 1,109.8 1,117.1 1,103.4 1,117.3 1,183.4 1,181.1 1,178.7 1,185.3 1,172.1 1,191.7 -71.7 -13.2 19.6
Structures.................. 269.3 275.2 259.4 254.2 254.9 257.0 226.4 231.7 218.2 212.6 211.0 213.5 -44.5 -1.6 2.5
Nonresidential buildings,
including farm........... 179.2 182.3 171.1 170.9 171.3 171.7 145.6 148.2 139.1 137.8 136.5 137.2 -33.1 -1.3 .7
Utilities................. 53.1 53.9 51.5 50.6 49.4 48.3 47.3 48.4 45.6 44.6 43.2 41.8 -3.0 -1.4 -1.4
Mining exploration,
shafts, and wells........ 30.6 31.7 31.0 27.3 29.2 31.8 29.2 30.3 29.9 26.5 28.4 31.7 -4.8 1.9 3.3
Other structures.......... 6.4 7.3 5.8 5.4 4.9 5.2 5.5 6.3 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.4 -3.8 -.4 .2
Equipment and software...... 848.1 840.7 850.4 863.0 848.6 860.3 971.1 961.4 977.2 992.1 979.9 997.6 -17.1 -12.2 17.7
Information processing
equipment and software... 399.7 397.1 406.9 406.3 411.8 424.6 563.1 557.0 575.2 579.7 594.5 617.1 14.6 14.8 22.6
Computers and
peripheral equipment... 74.2 72.8 76.8 75.4 76.3 82.6 283.7 271.6 297.6 303.2 319.1 355.5 43.8 15.9 36.4
Software................ 182.8 181.0 186.3 186.7 187.0 188.7 185.7 184.3 189.4 190.3 192.5 194.5 3.7 2.2 2.0
Other................... 142.7 143.3 143.8 144.2 148.5 153.4 158.2 158.5 159.7 160.7 165.3 171.1 -5.7 4.6 5.8
Industrial equipment...... 152.2 150.5 153.3 151.5 149.8 150.3 146.9 145.6 147.9 145.9 143.9 144.1 -6.9 -2.0 .2
Transportation equipment.. 148.9 145.2 141.7 154.5 138.5 134.8 147.0 143.4 141.7 151.4 135.8 133.6 -16.6 -15.6 -2.2
Other..................... 147.4 148.0 148.5 150.8 148.4 150.6 139.3 140.1 140.3 142.3 139.6 141.2 -1.4 -2.7 1.6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See note at the end of the table.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period--Continued
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1996) dollars
------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------------------
2002 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 2002 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 2002 I 03 II 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Residential................... 471.9 468.7 469.9 486.5 507.3 513.3 388.2 386.1 387.1 395.9 405.5 411.5 14.7 9.6 6.0
Structures.................. 462.4 459.2 460.4 476.9 497.7 503.5 378.5 376.4 377.4 386.1 395.6 401.2 14.5 9.5 5.6
Single family............. 247.0 244.3 245.3 257.4 273.8 272.1 200.5 198.4 199.8 206.5 214.7 214.7 7.9 8.2 .0
Multifamily............... 33.6 34.2 33.4 32.4 35.7 36.0 26.3 26.8 26.2 25.1 27.0 27.4 1.9 1.9 .4
Other..................... 181.8 180.7 181.7 187.1 188.2 195.5 151.6 151.0 151.3 154.4 153.5 158.9 4.7 -.9 5.4
Equipment................... 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.3 .2 .1 .4
Change in private inventories... 3.9 3.4 17.6 24.5 .4 -19.2 5.2 4.9 18.8 25.8 4.8 -17.9 66.6 -21.0 -22.7
Farm.......................... .5 .4 -2.3 -1.5 .5 -1.1 1.1 .8 -2.2 -.8 1.0 -.8 -.9 1.8 -1.8
Construction, mining,
and utilities................ -.9 -1.1 -2.5 -1.7 -14.2 -9.3 -.7 -1.0 -2.3 -1.1 -9.9 -7.3 -7.1 -8.8 2.6
Manufacturing................. -11.3 -14.2 -2.7 2.8 -6.1 -10.9 -11.5 -14.1 -2.6 2.8 -6.1 -10.8 24.7 -8.9 -4.7
Wholesale trade............... -3.7 -9.0 7.1 6.6 -3.1 -7.2 -3.4 -8.7 7.9 7.0 -2.2 -7.0 13.1 -9.2 -4.8
Retail trade.................. 16.8 22.2 15.6 15.7 21.9 6.9 16.6 22.0 15.5 15.2 21.8 6.7 36.9 6.6 -15.1
Other industries.............. 2.5 5.1 2.3 2.5 1.4 2.6 2.5 5.0 2.3 2.5 1.4 2.5 -.1 -1.1 1.1
Net exports of goods and services. -423.6 -425.6 -432.9 -476.0 -487.2 -511.0 -488.5 -487.4 -488.0 -532.2 -510.3 -553.6 -72.6 21.9 -43.3
Exports......................... 1,014.9 1,018.1 1,038.6 1,025.4 1,031.8 1,026.7 1,058.8 1,065.5 1,077.7 1,061.6 1,058.1 1,049.7 -17.3 -3.5 -8.4
Goods......................... 703.6 709.4 722.6 702.6 711.9 710.0 756.9 765.8 773.5 750.3 753.9 748.9 -28.3 3.6 -5.0
Foods, feeds, and beverages. 49.5 48.6 49.5 50.3 52.3 51.8 60.9 61.3 59.4 59.6 61.7 59.6 -1.4 2.1 -2.1
Industrial supplies and
materials.................. 153.7 155.6 156.3 158.0 166.5 166.9 162.8 165.8 163.1 163.9 167.0 165.9 .6 3.1 -1.1
Capital goods, except
automotive................. 291.3 294.1 301.7 285.0 282.7 281.1 324.8 327.7 336.8 318.6 316.7 315.1 -31.0 -1.9 -1.6
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts......... 78.5 80.4 82.5 77.4 78.7 79.6 76.1 78.1 79.9 74.7 75.8 76.6 2.7 1.1 .8
Consumer goods, except
automotive................. 84.5 84.2 86.0 85.6 86.9 86.9 84.6 84.5 86.0 85.6 86.7 86.6 -3.3 1.1 -.1
Other....................... 46.0 46.4 46.7 46.1 44.7 43.8 47.3 47.9 47.7 47.0 45.1 43.9 2.8 -1.9 -1.2
Services...................... 311.3 308.8 316.0 322.8 319.9 316.6 301.5 299.7 304.0 310.0 303.5 300.3 9.5 -6.5 -3.2
Imports......................... 1,438.5 1,443.7 1,471.5 1,501.4 1,519.0 1,537.6 1,547.4 1,552.9 1,565.7 1,593.8 1,568.4 1,603.3 55.4 -25.4 34.9
Goods......................... 1,192.1 1,202.9 1,220.9 1,242.5 1,256.1 1,279.9 1,320.1 1,329.2 1,340.3 1,360.8 1,337.4 1,387.1 49.6 -23.4 49.7
Foods, feeds, and beverages. 49.8 49.4 50.4 52.0 54.4 55.3 54.6 54.6 55.0 55.7 57.4 58.1 2.9 1.7 .7
Industrial supplies and
materials, except
petroleum and products..... 160.2 159.0 163.5 168.7 177.2 177.8 166.7 165.1 169.1 171.9 168.8 171.9 5.8 -3.1 3.1
Petroleum and products...... 103.4 108.1 110.7 117.9 136.3 129.4 86.7 88.6 85.5 90.2 87.3 96.3 -2.5 -2.9 9.0
Capital goods, except
automotive................. 284.0 288.4 285.3 284.9 282.8 291.9 393.2 398.2 394.9 397.6 394.9 408.7 -6.8 -2.7 13.8
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts......... 204.0 207.5 210.0 208.1 203.2 206.5 200.1 203.8 205.9 203.4 198.8 201.6 13.4 -4.6 2.8
Consumer goods, except
automotive................. 307.6 307.2 315.0 322.9 327.5 333.8 326.6 326.4 334.4 343.2 348.6 355.1 27.7 5.4 6.5
Other....................... 83.2 83.2 86.0 88.0 74.7 85.2 83.8 84.0 86.6 88.1 73.8 84.1 4.0 -14.3 10.3
Services...................... 246.4 240.8 250.6 258.9 262.9 257.8 227.2 224.3 226.0 233.0 230.7 219.8 4.8 -2.3 -10.9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See note at the end of the table.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period--Continued
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1996) dollars
------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------------------
2002 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 2002 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 2002 I 03 II 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Government consumption
expenditures and
gross investment................. 1,972.9 1,959.8 1,981.1 2,011.3 2,052.0 2,085.6 1,712.8 1,703.3 1,715.6 1,735.0 1,736.7 1,768.4 72.4 1.7 31.7
Federal......................... 693.7 688.2 697.7 716.9 735.2 778.7 613.3 608.7 615.1 631.4 632.5 668.9 42.7 1.1 36.4
National defense.............. 447.4 442.1 451.2 464.7 471.1 516.7 400.0 395.8 402.5 413.2 409.7 448.9 34.0 -3.5 39.2
Consumption expenditures.... 386.6 382.5 388.9 403.2 408.7 449.8 337.0 333.9 338.0 349.4 345.4 379.7 28.1 -4.0 34.3
Gross investment............ 60.8 59.6 62.4 61.5 62.4 66.9 63.3 62.2 65.0 63.9 64.7 69.3 6.0 .8 4.6
Nondefense.................... 246.3 246.1 246.5 252.2 264.1 261.9 213.3 212.9 212.7 218.3 222.8 220.4 8.9 4.5 -2.4
Consumption expenditures.... 199.9 198.6 200.9 205.8 217.9 213.0 167.8 166.5 167.9 172.5 177.1 172.7 6.7 4.6 -4.4
Gross investment............ 46.4 47.5 45.5 46.5 46.2 48.9 45.9 47.0 45.1 46.0 45.7 48.4 2.3 -.3 2.7
State and local................. 1,279.2 1,271.6 1,283.3 1,294.4 1,316.8 1,306.9 1,099.7 1,094.7 1,100.6 1,104.0 1,104.6 1,100.5 30.3 .6 -4.1
Consumption expenditures.... 1,034.5 1,030.6 1,039.6 1,050.1 1,071.8 1,067.4 881.1 879.4 883.0 886.3 887.9 888.5 24.3 1.6 .6
Gross investment............ 244.7 241.1 243.8 244.2 245.0 239.5 218.6 215.3 217.6 217.7 216.6 211.7 5.8 -1.1 -4.9
Residual.......................... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... -87.2 -75.8 -102.5 -100.0 -110.5 -140.8 -44.3 -10.5 -30.3
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product. 10,442.4 10,373.5 10,488.7 10,564.3 10,688.0 10,796.5 9,424.4 9,377.9 9,457.2 9,483.1 9,536.2 9,610.6 166.0 53.1 74.4
Gross domestic purchases........ 10,869.9 10,802.4 10,939.1 11,064.8 11,175.6 11,288.2 9,889.8 9,840.8 9,934.7 10,005.5 10,020.7 10,114.6 289.1 15.2 93.9
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 10,866.0 10,799.0 10,921.5 11,040.3 11,175.2 11,307.4 9,874.1 9,826.0 9,906.1 9,970.1 10,004.7 10,116.9 229.2 34.6 112.2
Gross domestic product.......... 10,446.2 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,588.8 10,688.4 10,777.3 9,439.9 9,392.4 9,485.6 9,518.2 9,552.0 9,608.1 225.4 33.8 56.1
Plus: Income receipts from
the rest of the world.......... 278.0 276.0 287.3 284.2 281.3 ..... 253.3 251.8 261.3 257.5 252.5 ..... -38.7 -5.0 .....
Less: Income payments to
the rest of the world.......... 287.6 296.1 298.2 293.4 291.5 ..... 260.3 268.2 269.5 264.2 260.4 ..... -8.9 -3.8 .....
Equals: Gross national product.. 10,436.7 10,356.8 10,495.3 10,579.7 10,678.2 ..... 9,433.5 9,376.7 9,477.9 9,512.1 9,544.7 ..... 196.2 32.6 .....
Net domestic product............ 9,052.8 8,987.0 9,101.0 9,173.4 9,267.0 9,360.4 8,055.8 8,017.0 8,085.5 8,103.0 8,123.2 8,164.6 150.4 20.2 41.4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note.--Users are cautioned that particularly for components that
exhibit rapid change in prices relative to other prices in the
economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure
the component's relative importance or its contribution to the
growth rate of more aggregate series. For accurate estimates of
the contributions to percent changes in real GDP, use table 2.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 4.--Chain-Type Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.4 1.0
Personal consumption expenditures... 2.5 2.0 1.4 2.2 2.4 3.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 3.3 1.8 -.1 .8 1.1 2.7 1.7 1.8 2.7 .9
Durable goods..................... -1.7 -1.9 -2.8 -1.7 -2.0 -2.0 -.8 -2.2 -1.2 -1.2 -3.4 -2.7 -1.5 -4.2 -2.9 -1.9 -2.2 -3.7 -3.8
Nondurable goods.................. 3.8 1.5 .4 3.4 3.7 5.3 3.0 2.8 1.8 1.8 2.9 -1.4 -3.5 .2 4.6 .6 1.2 4.6 -1.9
Services.......................... 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.7 3.6 2.5 2.6 3.2 5.1 2.3 1.1 3.5 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3
Gross private domestic investment... 1.0 1.2 -.5 -.5 .5 2.1 1.2 1.7 1.2 2.0 1.1 -.4 -.2 -1.5 -.4 -1.1 1.7 1.3 -1.3
Fixed investment.................. 1.1 1.2 -.4 -.4 .5 2.3 1.3 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.2 -.2 -.1 -1.5 -.2 -.9 1.8 1.9 -1.4
Nonresidential.................. .1 .2 -1.4 -1.6 -.5 .7 .4 1.3 .5 .4 .1 -1.1 -1.6 -2.0 -1.4 -1.3 .4 -.4 -1.6
Structures.................... 4.0 5.0 -.7 2.2 3.2 5.3 4.0 4.6 5.3 10.5 4.2 -.3 -1.6 -3.6 .7 .4 2.3 4.1 -1.4
Equipment and software........ -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 -2.8 -1.6 -.7 -.8 .2 -1.1 -2.9 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.5 -2.1 -1.9 -.2 -1.8 -1.7
Residential..................... 4.4 4.1 2.1 3.3 3.2 7.0 3.9 3.1 3.7 5.6 4.5 2.5 3.7 .0 2.6 .0 5.0 7.4 -1.1
Change in private inventories..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... 1.4 -.8 -.2 .7 1.7 2.0 2.0 .8 .1 -.8 -1.7 -1.9 -3.8 -.8 3.0 3.5 .9 3.9 1.2
Goods........................... 1.2 -.7 -.5 .7 2.2 1.3 1.6 .4 .4 -.2 -1.5 -2.4 -3.7 -1.1 2.3 3.4 .9 3.4 1.6
Services........................ 2.1 -1.0 .3 .8 .5 3.9 3.0 2.0 -.4 -2.3 -2.1 -.6 -4.2 .0 4.6 3.7 .8 4.9 .1
Imports........................... 4.5 -2.9 .3 5.8 5.5 6.6 1.1 4.6 .9 -2.5 -5.9 -17.0 4.7 -1.6 11.1 4.4 .9 11.7 -3.9
Goods........................... 4.8 -2.9 -1.7 6.3 6.3 6.8 1.2 4.5 .8 -3.7 -6.4 -6.6 -11.1 -2.1 10.9 2.7 .9 12.0 -6.9
Services........................ 3.3 -2.9 11.8 3.7 1.7 5.9 .7 4.8 1.1 3.8 -3.2 -57.7 167.5 1.1 12.2 13.6 .9 10.7 12.1
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 3.9 2.4 1.7 3.2 3.1 6.4 3.0 2.9 2.7 4.2 1.8 -.3 -.3 3.6 2.8 1.4 1.6 7.9 -.7
Federal........................... 3.0 1.7 2.7 2.1 1.6 8.1 .7 1.6 .1 4.6 1.5 .5 -.4 8.4 2.3 1.3 .3 9.8 .6
National defense................ 3.0 1.6 2.4 2.0 1.9 7.5 .7 2.0 .6 4.0 1.1 .6 -1.1 7.3 2.0 1.5 1.2 9.3 .5
Nondefense...................... 3.1 1.9 3.4 2.3 .9 9.3 .6 .9 -.7 5.6 2.2 .4 .7 10.4 2.9 1.0 -1.2 10.9 1.0
State and local................... 4.3 2.7 1.1 3.7 3.9 5.5 4.2 3.6 4.0 4.1 1.9 -.8 -.3 1.1 3.1 1.5 2.2 6.9 -1.5
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product... 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.3 1.7 3.1 2.4 1.7 2.1 3.6 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.8 2.5 .9
Gross domestic purchases.......... 2.5 1.9 1.2 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.3 1.7 -.2 .4 1.2 2.3 1.2 1.8 3.4 .3
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 2.5 1.9 1.2 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.2 1.7 -.1 .5 1.1 2.3 1.3 1.8 3.5 .2
Gross national product (GNP)...... 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.4 .....
Implicit price deflators:
GDP............................. 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.4 1.0
Gross domestic purchases........ 2.5 1.9 1.2 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.2 1.7 -.1 .4 1.2 2.3 1.2 1.7 3.4 .3
GNP............................. 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.7 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.4 .....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 5.--Quantity and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product
[Index numbers, 1996=100]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted
---------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product:
Chain-type quantity index........ 117.64 117.94 120.82 120.21 121.41 121.82 122.26 122.97
Chain-type price index........... 106.89 109.42 110.66 110.48 110.76 111.25 111.90 112.17
Implicit price deflator.......... 106.89 109.42 110.66 110.48 110.76 111.25 111.90 112.17
Personal consumption expenditures:
Chain-type quantity index................ 118.83 121.76 125.56 124.92 126.20 126.74 127.37 128.42
Chain-type price index................... 107.39 109.56 111.06 110.89 111.36 111.87 112.62 112.86
Durable goods:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 142.58 151.16 162.19 159.08 167.47 163.92 163.08 171.61
Chain-type price index................. 91.46 89.70 87.19 87.36 86.94 86.46 85.64 84.82
Nondurable goods:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 116.50 118.79 122.58 122.03 122.35 123.88 125.72 125.74
Chain-type price index................. 107.59 109.17 109.61 109.75 109.92 110.25 111.51 110.97
Services:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 115.67 117.98 120.63 120.32 121.01 121.66 121.92 122.38
Chain-type price index................. 110.85 114.32 117.44 117.00 117.88 118.74 119.64 120.61
Private fixed investment:
Chain-type quantity index................ 139.52 134.20 130.06 129.68 129.60 130.99 130.94 133.04
Chain-type price index................... 100.00 101.16 100.76 100.76 100.52 100.95 101.44 101.07
Nonresidential:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 147.23 139.55 131.57 131.32 131.05 131.79 130.32 132.49
Chain-type price index................. 95.59 95.73 94.43 94.48 94.17 94.25 94.15 93.77
Residential:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 118.88 119.22 123.92 123.25 123.59 126.39 129.45 131.35
Chain-type price index................. 114.40 119.09 121.57 121.40 121.38 122.88 125.10 124.76
Exports of goods and services:
Chain-type quantity index................ 130.09 123.10 121.13 121.89 123.28 121.44 121.04 120.09
Chain-type price index................... 96.83 96.10 95.87 95.58 96.41 96.62 97.55 97.83
Imports of goods and services:
Chain-type quantity index................ 159.48 154.91 160.66 161.24 162.56 165.48 162.84 166.47
Chain-type price index................... 95.49 92.70 92.99 93.03 94.05 94.27 96.92 95.97
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment:
Chain-type quantity index................ 111.29 115.36 120.46 119.79 120.65 122.02 122.14 124.37
Chain-type price index................... 110.65 113.27 115.18 115.06 115.47 115.92 118.15 117.94
Federal:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 102.42 107.33 115.37 114.50 115.71 118.79 118.99 125.83
Chain-type price index................. 108.23 110.09 113.11 113.07 113.44 113.53 116.23 116.42
State and local:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 116.52 120.11 123.51 122.95 123.62 123.99 124.06 123.60
Chain-type price index................. 111.98 115.01 116.33 116.17 116.60 117.24 119.21 118.76
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 117.19 118.95 121.09 120.49 121.51 121.84 122.52 123.48
Chain-type price index................. 107.02 109.55 110.80 110.62 110.91 111.40 112.08 112.34
Implicit price deflator................ 107.02 109.55 110.80 110.62 110.91 111.40 112.08 112.34
Gross domestic purchases:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 121.00 121.50 125.15 124.53 125.72 126.62 126.81 128.00
Chain-type price index................. 106.58 108.65 109.90 109.77 110.11 110.59 111.53 111.60
Implicit price deflator................ 106.58 108.65 109.91 109.77 110.11 110.59 111.53 111.60
Final sales to domestic purchasers:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 120.56 122.52 125.43 124.82 125.84 126.65 127.09 128.52
Chain-type price index................. 106.70 108.78 110.04 109.90 110.25 110.73 111.70 111.77
Implicit price deflator................ 106.70 108.78 110.04 109.90 110.25 110.73 111.70 111.77
Gross national product:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 117.69 117.96 120.46 119.73 121.03 121.46 121.88 .....
Chain-type price index................. 106.86 109.39 110.63 110.45 110.73 111.22 111.88 .....
Implicit price deflator................ 106.86 109.38 110.63 110.45 110.73 111.22 111.88 .....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 6.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective
[Percent change from preceding year]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 3.4 4.2 3.5 1.8 -.5 3.0 2.7 4.0 2.7 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.8 .3 2.4
Personal consumption expenditures...... 3.3 4.0 2.7 1.8 -.2 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.0 3.2 3.6 4.8 4.9 4.4 2.5 3.1
Durable goods........................ 1.7 5.8 2.1 -.9 -6.6 5.3 8.2 7.6 4.6 5.6 6.6 10.5 11.8 8.2 6.0 7.3
Nondurable goods..................... 2.4 3.2 2.7 1.4 -.4 1.9 2.9 3.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 4.1 4.7 3.9 2.0 3.2
Services............................. 4.3 4.1 2.8 2.8 1.4 2.9 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.3 4.0 3.7 3.8 2.0 2.2
Gross private domestic investment...... 2.5 2.7 3.7 -3.1 -8.6 8.5 8.7 13.2 3.0 9.0 12.1 11.8 6.6 6.2 -10.7 1.0
Fixed investment..................... .0 3.6 2.7 -1.8 -6.9 6.5 8.1 9.1 6.0 9.3 9.6 11.4 7.8 6.1 -3.8 -3.1
Nonresidential..................... -.1 5.4 5.5 .7 -4.9 3.4 8.4 8.9 9.8 10.0 12.2 12.5 8.1 7.8 -5.2 -5.7
Structures....................... -3.6 1.3 2.5 1.5 -11.0 -6.1 .8 .8 4.8 7.1 9.1 6.8 -1.3 6.5 -1.7 -16.4
Equipment and software........... 1.7 7.5 7.0 .4 -2.0 7.4 11.3 11.9 11.5 11.0 13.3 14.6 11.5 8.2 -6.4 -1.7
Residential........................ .2 -.5 -4.1 -8.6 -12.8 16.3 7.3 9.7 -3.6 7.4 2.0 8.0 6.7 1.1 .3 3.9
Change in private inventories........ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. 11.2 16.1 11.8 8.7 6.5 6.2 3.3 8.9 10.3 8.2 12.3 2.1 3.4 9.7 -5.4 -1.6
Goods.............................. 11.1 18.8 12.6 8.2 7.1 6.8 3.0 9.7 11.9 8.7 14.5 2.1 3.8 11.3 -5.9 -3.6
Services........................... 11.6 9.3 9.6 10.0 5.1 4.6 4.1 7.2 6.4 6.8 7.0 2.3 2.5 6.0 -4.0 3.2
Imports.............................. 6.1 3.8 3.9 3.8 -.5 6.6 9.1 12.0 8.2 8.6 13.7 11.8 10.9 13.2 -2.9 3.7
Goods.............................. 4.6 4.1 4.2 3.0 -.1 9.3 10.1 13.3 9.0 9.4 14.2 11.7 12.2 13.5 -3.3 3.9
Services........................... 12.6 2.7 2.8 7.6 -2.3 -4.0 4.7 5.8 4.1 4.8 10.9 11.9 4.2 11.6 -.5 2.1
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. 3.0 1.2 2.8 3.3 1.2 .5 -.8 .1 .5 1.1 2.4 1.9 3.9 2.7 3.7 4.4
Federal.............................. 3.7 -1.8 1.3 2.0 -.3 -1.6 -3.9 -3.6 -2.7 -.9 -.4 -.8 2.3 1.3 4.8 7.5
National defense................... 4.7 -.8 -.8 .0 -1.1 -4.9 -5.4 -4.8 -3.7 -1.3 -2.6 -1.8 2.1 -.1 5.0 9.3
Nondefense......................... .5 -5.2 8.4 8.3 1.8 7.1 -.3 -1.0 -.5 .0 4.2 1.1 2.7 3.6 4.5 4.3
State and local...................... 2.3 3.7 3.9 4.2 2.3 2.0 1.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 4.0 3.4 4.7 3.5 3.1 2.8
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product...... 3.0 4.3 3.3 2.0 -.2 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.3 3.7 1.5 1.8
Gross domestic purchases............. 3.1 3.2 2.9 1.4 -1.1 3.1 3.3 4.4 2.5 3.7 4.7 5.4 5.0 4.4 .4 3.0
Final sales to domestic purchasers... 2.7 3.4 2.7 1.6 -.9 2.8 3.2 3.8 3.0 3.7 4.3 5.3 5.2 4.3 1.6 2.4
Gross national product............... 3.3 4.2 3.5 1.9 -.5 3.0 2.6 3.9 2.7 3.5 4.3 4.2 4.4 3.7 .2 2.1
Real disposable personal income...... 2.1 4.4 2.6 2.2 .4 3.1 1.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.1 5.4 2.6 4.8 1.8 4.2
Gross domestic purchases price
index............................... 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.1 3.4 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.6 .8 1.5 2.5 1.9 1.2
GDP price index...................... 3.0 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.4 1.1
Personal consumption expenditures
price index......................... 3.8 3.9 4.4 4.6 3.8 3.1 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.5 2.0 1.4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 7.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.9 3.7 2.3 1.5 -.1 -.4 .1 1.4 2.2 3.3 2.9 2.0 2.3
Personal consumption expenditures...... 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.5 4.3 3.5 2.8 2.4 1.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.8 2.7 2.4 2.8
Durable goods........................ 13.3 10.0 13.1 8.4 7.8 3.8 2.4 4.7 3.8 13.2 8.4 7.5 11.9 1.9 3.0 7.9
Nondurable goods..................... 4.4 4.9 4.2 4.3 4.1 3.0 3.0 1.7 1.5 1.7 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.0 3.0
Services............................. 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.8 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.7
Gross private domestic investment...... 6.6 6.6 5.3 11.0 6.4 2.2 -3.8 -11.9 -11.7 -15.1 -6.5 .0 2.3 8.9 3.0 1.4
Fixed investment..................... 8.4 5.9 7.3 7.1 5.7 4.3 .5 -4.0 -5.1 -6.7 -6.3 -3.7 -2.7 .6 .7 2.6
Nonresidential..................... 9.4 6.6 8.3 8.9 7.8 6.2 1.1 -5.1 -7.4 -9.3 -9.4 -6.3 -5.1 -1.7 -1.4 .9
Structures....................... -3.1 -2.5 1.8 5.2 10.0 9.3 5.0 .8 -1.4 -10.6 -13.3 -15.6 -21.1 -15.9 -13.2 -7.8
Equipment and software........... 13.8 9.7 10.5 10.1 7.2 5.2 -.2 -7.1 -9.5 -8.8 -8.0 -2.9 1.1 3.3 2.7 3.8
Residential........................ 5.6 4.0 4.1 2.1 -.6 -1.2 -1.2 -.6 2.0 1.0 2.4 3.2 3.4 6.7 5.7 6.6
Change in private inventories........ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. 5.7 4.9 8.8 11.4 11.6 7.3 3.7 -3.1 -10.1 -11.4 -9.3 -3.0 2.8 3.9 2.7 -1.5
Goods.............................. 6.4 5.6 9.9 12.8 14.3 8.3 4.9 -3.3 -12.1 -12.3 -11.7 -4.3 1.8 .8 2.1 -2.2
Services........................... 4.2 3.2 6.1 8.1 5.3 4.8 .7 -2.6 -4.7 -9.2 -3.1 .0 5.3 11.4 3.9 .2
Imports.............................. 12.6 11.9 13.5 14.3 14.1 11.1 5.2 -1.0 -7.1 -8.0 -4.1 2.6 6.7 10.1 6.2 3.2
Goods.............................. 14.3 13.0 13.9 14.7 14.3 11.1 5.1 -2.1 -7.5 -7.9 -4.8 3.8 7.3 9.9 7.0 4.4
Services........................... 4.1 5.9 10.9 11.6 13.0 10.9 5.9 5.7 -4.5 -8.6 -1.4 -3.9 3.4 11.5 2.3 -2.0
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. 3.8 4.5 3.5 3.9 2.3 1.3 3.0 3.3 3.2 5.1 5.0 4.0 5.0 3.6 2.3 3.8
Federal.............................. 2.9 4.0 1.2 4.4 .7 -1.2 4.7 2.4 4.6 7.5 6.9 7.3 8.1 7.5 5.8 9.9
National defense................... 1.7 4.4 .0 3.7 -1.3 -2.5 5.2 2.2 5.1 7.4 8.2 9.5 10.1 9.3 5.5 13.4
Nondefense......................... 5.2 3.4 3.4 5.7 4.2 1.1 3.9 2.6 3.9 7.6 4.7 3.5 4.7 4.4 6.4 3.6
State and local...................... 4.3 4.8 4.6 3.6 3.2 2.6 2.2 3.7 2.5 3.9 4.1 2.3 3.4 1.6 .5 .5
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product...... 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.2 3.6 2.6 2.2 1.4 .9 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.5 1.7 1.7 2.5
Gross domestic purchases............. 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.5 4.3 2.9 1.7 .1 -.3 .1 1.8 2.8 3.7 3.7 2.5 2.8
Final sales to domestic purchasers... 5.4 5.1 5.2 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.5 1.5 .9 1.6 1.8 2.2 3.0 2.5 2.1 3.0
Gross national product............... 4.6 4.7 4.2 4.9 3.7 2.2 1.3 -.1 -.4 .1 1.4 1.7 3.0 2.5 1.9 .....
Real disposable personal income...... 1.9 2.4 3.8 4.9 5.6 4.8 2.7 1.3 2.8 .3 3.8 5.0 2.8 5.2 2.3 1.9
Gross domestic purchases price
index............................... 1.6 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.7 1.3 .8 .9 1.3 1.6 2.2 1.7
GDP price index...................... 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.4 1.1 .8 1.3 1.6 1.5
Personal consumption expenditures
price index......................... 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 1.8 1.5 .9 1.1 1.6 1.8 2.3 1.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 8.--Relation of Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and National Income
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product..................... 9,824.6 10,082.2 10,446.2 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,588.8 10,688.4 10,777.3
Plus: Income receipts from
the rest of the world..................... 383.4 316.9 278.0 276.0 287.3 284.2 281.3 .....
Less: Income payments to
the rest of the world..................... 360.0 295.0 287.6 296.1 298.2 293.4 291.5 .....
Equals: Gross national product............. 9,848.0 10,104.1 10,436.7 10,356.8 10,495.3 10,579.7 10,678.2 .....
Less: Consumption of fixed capital......... 1,228.9 1,329.3 1,393.5 1,389.8 1,405.3 1,415.4 1,421.4 1,416.9
Less: Indirect business tax and
nontax liability.......................... 753.6 774.8 800.4 795.1 806.9 813.3 821.7 830.7
Less: Business transfer payments........... 43.7 42.5 44.1 43.9 44.4 44.3 44.9 44.8
Less: Statistical discrepancy.............. -128.5 -117.3 -108.8 -165.0 -82.1 -78.2 -91.4 .....
Plus: Subsidies less current
surplus of government enterprises......... 34.1 47.3 32.5 35.1 29.1 29.0 30.7 46.5
Equals: National income.................... 7,984.4 8,122.0 8,340.1 8,328.0 8,349.9 8,413.9 8,512.3 .....
Compensation of employees................ 5,723.4 5,874.9 5,969.5 5,963.9 5,988.4 6,017.4 6,081.2 6,110.2
Wage and salary accruals............... 4,836.3 4,950.6 4,996.4 4,997.3 5,007.4 5,023.1 5,070.8 5,092.5
Supplements to wages and salaries...... 887.1 924.3 973.1 966.6 981.0 994.3 1,010.4 1,017.7
Proprietors' income with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 714.8 727.9 756.5 747.5 758.7 771.6 784.4 803.5
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment.......... 146.6 137.9 142.4 153.5 144.1 130.6 126.9 116.4
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 788.1 731.6 787.4 785.0 771.0 796.1 816.5 .....
Net interest............................. 611.5 649.8 684.2 678.1 687.6 698.3 703.3 700.0
Addendum:
Gross domestic income.................... 9,953.1 10,199.4 10,555.1 10,541.8 10,588.3 10,667.0 10,779.8 .....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 9.--Personal Income and Its Disposition
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income\1\......................... 8,406.6 8,685.3 8,922.2 8,914.0 8,958.9 9,012.5 9,094.8 9,169.2
Wage and salary disbursements............ 4,836.3 4,950.6 4,996.4 4,997.3 5,007.4 5,023.1 5,069.5 5,093.9
Other labor income....................... 544.2 570.4 610.6 604.1 617.5 630.2 639.2 645.0
Proprietors' income with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments................. 714.8 727.9 756.5 747.5 758.7 771.6 784.4 803.5
Farm................................... 22.6 19.0 12.9 7.5 10.7 11.7 14.2 15.2
Nonfarm................................ 692.2 708.8 743.7 740.0 748.0 759.9 770.2 788.3
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment.......... 146.6 137.9 142.4 153.5 144.1 130.6 126.9 116.4
Personal dividend income................. 375.7 409.2 433.8 430.3 437.3 443.8 451.2 459.0
Personal interest income................. 1,077.0 1,091.3 1,078.5 1,082.3 1,080.7 1,080.9 1,075.8 1,081.6
Transfer payments to persons............. 1,070.3 1,170.4 1,288.0 1,282.6 1,298.4 1,319.1 1,340.8 1,364.8
Less: Personal contributions for
social insurance........................ 358.4 372.3 384.0 383.6 385.3 386.8 392.9 394.9
Less: Personal tax and nontax payments..... 1,286.4 1,292.1 1,111.9 1,121.8 1,099.0 1,090.1 1,077.2 1,085.5
Equals: Disposable personal income......... 7,120.2 7,393.2 7,810.3 7,792.2 7,859.9 7,922.5 8,017.6 8,083.7
Less: Personal outlays..................... 6,918.6 7,223.5 7,524.5 7,477.9 7,583.0 7,640.7 7,727.6 7,813.1
Equals: Personal saving.................... 201.5 169.7 285.8 314.3 276.9 281.8 290.0 270.6
Addenda:
Disposable personal income,
billions of chained (1996) dollars\2\... 6,630.3 6,748.0 7,032.2 7,027.2 7,058.1 7,082.3 7,119.4 7,162.4
Personal saving as a percentage of
disposable personal income.............. 2.8 2.3 3.7 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.3
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Personal income is also equal to national income less corporate
profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,
net interest, contributions for social insurance, and wage accruals
less disbursements, plus personal interest income, personal dividend
income, government transfer payments to persons, and business
transfer payments to persons.
2. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price
deflator for personal consumption expenditures.
Appendix Table A.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Aggregates and Price Indexes: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GDP and related aggregates:
GDP............................... 3.8 .3 2.4 5.2 7.1 2.6 4.8 .6 1.1 -.6 -1.6 -.3 2.7 5.0 1.3 4.0 1.4 1.4 2.4
Goods............................. 4.7 -2.3 3.3 8.2 12.0 1.4 6.9 -.5 -2.7 -4.4 -5.7 -1.5 4.3 8.3 .4 9.0 -1.6 2.2 .1
Services.......................... 3.3 2.1 2.8 4.3 3.9 2.0 5.0 1.6 3.7 .9 1.2 1.8 3.2 2.8 3.5 2.5 3.1 .6 3.8
Structures........................ 2.7 -.1 -2.8 -1.9 6.2 10.7 -3.6 -1.2 1.7 6.1 -1.3 -7.1 -5.6 6.1 -8.4 -5.5 2.5 3.6 2.5
Motor vehicle output.............. -2.7 -6.1 12.8 21.0 2.0 -1.6 -7.9 -16.4 -18.1 -19.1 19.4 10.7 16.3 9.9 8.1 37.1 -13.4 -1.8 -.6
GDP less motor vehicle output..... 4.0 .5 2.1 4.6 7.3 2.7 5.4 1.2 1.8 .0 -2.2 -.6 2.3 4.9 1.0 3.0 1.9 1.5 2.5
Final sales of computers\1\....... 29.5 9.1 13.0 35.1 -3.9 56.9 45.2 9.6 10.2 30.0 -19.1 -5.3 28.9 -7.8 13.1 78.5 26.7 28.2 18.6
GDP less final sales of computers. 3.5 .2 2.4 4.9 7.2 2.2 4.5 .5 1.0 -.8 -1.4 -.2 2.6 5.1 1.2 3.6 1.2 1.3 2.3
Farm product\2\................... 11.5 -5.1 .4 -7.3 8.7 35.1 4.7 15.3 -19.1 -10.6 -17.5 -4.3 74.0 -14.2 -26.7 7.9 9.5 2.4 -9.3
Nonfarm business less housing
product\3\....................... 4.1 -.1 2.8 6.0 8.5 2.1 5.6 .3 1.2 -.9 -2.8 -.8 3.0 6.3 .9 5.4 1.8 1.5 3.6
Price indexes:
GDP............................... 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.4 1.0
GDP less food and energy.......... 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.6 1.9 2.8 1.6 2.8 .0 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.8 .5
GDP less final sales of computers. 2.3 2.6 1.3 1.5 1.9 3.3 2.5 1.8 2.2 4.1 2.7 2.4 -.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.9 2.5 1.1
Gross domestic purchases.......... 2.5 1.9 1.2 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.3 1.7 -.2 .4 1.2 2.3 1.2 1.8 3.4 .3
Gross domestic purchases less
food and energy.................. 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.7 2.7 1.9 1.5 1.7 2.9 1.3 .6 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.8 .7
Gross domestic purchases less
final sales of computers......... 2.8 2.2 1.4 2.2 2.4 3.9 2.4 2.4 2.3 3.8 2.0 .1 .7 1.4 2.4 1.4 2.0 3.6 .4
Personal consumption expenditures. 2.5 2.0 1.4 2.2 2.4 3.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 3.3 1.8 -.1 .8 1.1 2.7 1.7 1.8 2.7 .9
Personal consumption expenditures
less food and energy............. 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.8 2.8 1.2 .7 2.7 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.5 .8 1.2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. For some components of final sales of computers, includes
computer parts.
2. Farm output less intermediate goods and services purchased.
3. Consists of GDP less gross product of farm, of housing,
of households and institutions, and of general government.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Explanatory Note: Measures of Output and Prices
This note describes the calculation of chain-type quantity and price indexes used in the NIPA's.
Changes in current-dollar GDP measure changes in the market value of goods, services, and structures produced in the
economy in a particular period. These changes can be decomposed into quantity and price components. Quantities, or
"real" measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with the reference year--at present, the year 1996--equal to
100.
The annual changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two
adjacent years. (Quarterly changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights
from two adjacent quarters; quarterly indexes are adjusted for consistency to the annual indexes before percent changes
are calculated.) For example, the 2000-01 annual percent change in real GDP uses prices for 2000 and 2001 as weights,
and the 2000-01 annual percent change in GDP prices uses quantities for 2000 and 2001 as weights. These annual
changes are "chained" (multiplied) together to form time series of quantity and price indexes. The Fisher formula
produces percent changes in quantities and prices that are not affected by the choice of reference years. In addition,
because the changes in quantities and prices calculated in this way are symmetric, in general, the product of a quantity
index and the corresponding price index equals the current-dollar index. (BEA also publishes a measure of the price level
known as the "implicit price deflator (IPD)," which is calculated as the ratio of current-dollar value to the corresponding
chained-dollar value, multiplied by 100. The values of the IPD are very close to the values of the corresponding
"chain-type" price index for all periods.)
Chain-type quantity and price indexes for GDP and its major components are presented in this release as index
numbers in table 5 and in the form of percentage changes from the preceding period in tables 1, 4, 6 and from the quarter
one year ago in table 7. Contributions by major components to changes in real GDP are presented in table 2. BEA also
prepares measures of real GDP and its components in a dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (1996) dollar
estimates." For GDP and most other series, these estimates, which are presented in table 3, are computed by multiplying
the 1996 current-dollar value by a corresponding quantity index number and then dividing by 100. For example, if a
current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 1996 and if real output for this component increased 10 percent in 1997,
then the chained (1996) dollar value of this component in 1997 would be $110 ($100 x 1.10).
For analyses of changes over time in an aggregate or in a component, the percentage changes calculated from the
chained-dollar estimates and from the chain-type quantity indexes are the same; any differences will be small and due to
rounding. However, because the relative prices used as weights for any period other than the reference year differ from
those used for the reference year, the chained-dollar values for the detailed GDP components will not necessarily sum to
the chained-dollar estimate of GDP or to any intermediate aggregate. A measure of the extent of such differences is
provided by a "residual" line, which indicates the difference between GDP (or another major aggregate) and the sum of
the most detailed components in the table. For periods close to the reference year, when there usually has not been much
change in the relative prices that are used as weights for the chain-type index, the residuals tend to be small, and the
chained (1996) dollar estimates can be used to approximate the contributions to growth and to aggregate the detailed
estimates. As one moves further from the reference year, the residual tends to become larger, and the chained-dollar
estimates become less useful for analyses of contributions to growth. Thus, the contributions to percent change shown in
table 2 provide a better measure of the composition of GDP growth. In particular, for components for which relative
prices are changing rapidly, calculation of contributions using chained-dollar estimates may be misleading even just a few
years from the reference year.
References: "A Preview of the 1999 Comprehensive Revision of the NIPA's: Statistical Changes," October 1999 Survey,
pp. 6-17; "A Guide to the NIPA's," March 1998 Survey, pp. 36-40; "BEA's Chain Indexes, Time Series, and Measures of
Long-Term Economic Growth," May 1997 Survey, pp. 58-68.
|
|
