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Virginia H. Mannering: (202) 606-5304 BEA 03-05
Recorded message: 606-5306
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 2002 (PRELIMINARY)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2002,
according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter,
real GDP increased 4.0 percent.
The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for
the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 0.7
percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).
The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), government spending, equipment and software, residential fixed
investment, and private inventory investment. The contributions of these components were partly offset
by negative contributions from exports and from nonresidential structures. Imports, which are a
subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in
PCE, a downturn in exports, and a deceleration in private inventory investment that were partly offset by
an acceleration in federal government spending, a smaller decrease in nonresidential structures, and an
acceleration in residential fixed investment. Imports accelerated in the fourth quarter.
FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (1996)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA's Web site at <www.bea.gov/newsreleases/rels.htm>.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter, 0.2 percentage point less than the advance estimate; this
index increased 1.2 percent in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for
gross domestic purchases increased 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2
percent in the third.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of 4.2 percent in the third. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 2.5 percent,
in contrast to a decrease of 0.8 percent. Nonresidential structures decreased 9.8 percent, compared with
a decrease of 21.4 percent. Equipment and software increased 6.6 percent, compared with an increase of
6.7 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 9.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1
percent.
Real exports of goods and services decreased 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an
increase of 4.6 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 7.2 percent, compared
with an increase of 3.3 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 11.2 percent
in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent in the third. National defense increased
11.4 percent, compared with an increase of 6.9 percent. Nondefense increased 10.8 percent, in contrast
to a decrease of 0.3 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent.
The real change in private inventories added 0.24 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in
real GDP, after adding 0.58 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Private businesses increased
inventories $24.7 billion in the fourth quarter, following increases of $18.8 billion in the third quarter
and $4.9 billion in the second.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.2
percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent in the third.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.9 percent in the
third.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
3.1 percent, or $80.1 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $10,586.3 billion. In the third quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 5.1 percent, or $129.3 billion.
Revisions
The preliminary estimate of the fourth-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.7 percentage point, or
$16.3 billion, higher than the advance estimate issued last month. The upward revision to the
percentage change in real GDP primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment, to
personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for nondurable goods, and to PCE for services that were
partly offset by an upward revision to imports of goods and a downward revision to exports of goods.
Advance Preliminary
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP............................... 0.7 1.4
Current-dollar GDP..................... 2.5 3.1
Gross domestic purchases price index... 1.8 1.6
2002 GDP
Real GDP increased 2.4 percent in 2002 (that is, from the 2001 annual level to the 2002 annual
level), compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in 2001.
The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in 2002 were personal consumption
expenditures (PCE), government spending, and private inventory investment. The contributions of these
components were partly offset by negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment and from
exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased in 2002.
The acceleration in real GDP in 2002 primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory
investment, an acceleration in PCE, and smaller decreases in equipment and software and in exports that
were partly offset by a larger decrease in nonresidential structures. There was also an upturn in imports
in 2002.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.1 percent in 2002, compared with an
increase of 1.9 percent in 2001.
Current-dollar GDP increased 3.6 percent, or $363.4 billion, in 2002. Current-dollar GDP
increased 2.6 percent, or $257.6 billion, in 2001.
During 2002 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2002), real
GDP increased 2.9 percent. Real GDP increased 0.1 percent during 2001. The price index for gross
domestic purchases increased 1.6 percent during 2002, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent during
2001.
BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current
Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site:
<www.bea.gov>
Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the
following telephone numbers:
(202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product
606-5303 Personal income and outlays
606-5362 U.S. international transactions
Most of BEA's estimates and analyses are published in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's
monthly journal. Subscriptions and single copies of the printed Survey are for sale by the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: <bookstore.gpo.gov>;
phone: 202-512-1800; fax: 202-512-2250; mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001.
* * *
Next release -- March 27, 2003, at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2002 (Final)
Corporate Profits: Fourth Quarter 2002
Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002r I 99 II 99 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). 3.8 .3 2.4 3.0 2.0 5.2 7.1 2.6 4.8 .6 1.1 -.6 -1.6 -.3 2.7 5.0 1.3 4.0 1.4
Personal consumption expenditures... 4.4 2.5 3.1 4.7 5.7 4.6 5.0 5.3 3.0 3.8 2.1 2.4 1.4 1.5 6.0 3.1 1.8 4.2 1.5
Durable goods..................... 8.2 6.0 7.3 5.5 14.4 10.3 10.1 17.8 -3.7 8.1 -5.3 11.5 5.3 4.6 33.6 -6.3 2.0 22.8 -8.5
Nondurable goods.................. 3.9 2.0 3.2 4.9 4.8 2.5 7.5 2.2 4.9 2.0 2.7 2.3 -.3 1.3 3.6 7.9 -.1 1.0 5.1
Services.......................... 3.8 2.0 2.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 2.8 4.4 3.6 3.9 3.3 .6 1.5 .9 2.1 2.9 2.7 2.3 1.9
Gross private domestic investment... 6.2 -10.7 1.0 7.2 -4.7 11.0 13.7 2.3 17.3 -6.0 -3.4 -19.7 -17.6 -5.2 -17.3 18.2 7.9 3.6 6.2
Fixed investment.................. 6.1 -3.8 -3.1 7.7 7.1 5.9 2.9 13.3 6.7 .2 -2.4 -2.2 -11.1 -4.3 -8.9 -.5 -1.0 -.3 4.5
Nonresidential.................. 7.8 -5.2 -5.7 7.7 7.9 7.7 3.0 15.0 10.2 3.5 -3.2 -5.4 -14.5 -6.0 -10.9 -5.8 -2.4 -.8 2.5
Structures.................... 6.5 -1.7 -16.4 -4.1 -5.1 -6.3 6.1 13.8 8.2 12.1 3.6 -3.1 -8.4 2.9 -30.1 -14.2 -17.6 -21.4 -9.8
Equipment and software........ 8.2 -6.4 -1.7 12.0 12.5 12.5 2.1 15.5 10.9 .9 -5.4 -6.3 -16.7 -9.2 -2.5 -2.7 3.3 6.7 6.6
Residential..................... 1.1 .3 3.9 7.6 4.9 .9 2.7 8.3 -3.0 -9.3 .0 8.2 -.5 .4 -3.5 14.2 2.7 1.1 9.4
Change in private inventories..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... 9.7 -5.4 -1.5 -6.9 4.3 10.6 12.6 7.7 14.6 11.6 -4.0 -6.0 -12.4 -17.3 -9.6 3.5 14.3 4.6 -4.4
Goods........................... 11.3 -5.9 -3.6 -9.0 4.6 13.2 15.3 6.7 16.1 19.5 -7.1 -6.1 -16.1 -18.6 -7.9 -3.4 15.9 4.1 -11.1
Services........................ 6.0 -4.0 3.5 -1.5 3.4 4.7 6.4 10.2 11.2 -5.9 4.4 -6.0 -2.5 -13.9 -13.8 21.7 10.7 5.9 12.3
Imports........................... 13.2 -2.9 3.7 8.4 15.4 14.5 9.4 14.7 18.6 13.8 -1.6 -7.9 -6.8 -11.8 -5.3 8.5 22.2 3.3 7.2
Goods........................... 13.5 -3.3 3.9 10.1 17.1 15.4 9.8 13.7 20.3 13.6 -1.8 -9.2 -9.4 -9.6 -3.3 3.7 27.9 3.4 6.1
Services........................ 11.6 -.5 2.1 .2 6.8 9.7 7.1 20.6 9.6 15.1 -.5 .3 8.5 -23.2 -16.5 35.7 -2.1 3.1 12.4
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 2.7 3.7 4.4 3.0 2.9 5.3 7.1 -1.2 4.6 -1.0 2.9 5.7 5.6 -1.1 10.5 5.6 1.4 2.9 4.9
Federal........................... 1.3 4.8 7.5 -3.3 2.6 7.4 9.9 -13.2 16.0 -7.2 2.0 9.5 6.0 1.2 13.5 7.4 7.5 4.3 11.2
National defense................ -.1 5.0 9.3 -5.2 -.2 14.0 10.0 -19.9 15.0 -6.1 4.7 8.3 2.7 4.6 14.3 11.6 7.8 6.9 11.4
Nondefense...................... 3.6 4.5 4.3 .2 7.9 -3.6 9.7 .3 17.9 -9.2 -2.6 11.8 12.0 -4.5 12.1 .4 6.9 -.3 10.8
State and local................... 3.5 3.1 2.9 6.5 3.0 4.2 5.6 5.6 -.8 2.4 3.3 3.8 5.4 -2.3 8.9 4.6 -1.7 2.2 1.6
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product... 3.7 1.5 1.8 3.1 4.1 4.3 5.2 4.4 3.1 1.7 1.3 2.8 -.4 -.2 4.2 2.4 -.1 3.4 1.2
Gross domestic purchases.......... 4.4 .4 3.0 4.8 3.3 5.8 6.8 3.6 5.7 1.2 1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -.1 2.9 5.6 2.6 3.9 2.8
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 4.3 1.6 2.4 4.9 5.4 4.9 5.0 5.4 3.9 2.4 1.4 2.2 .0 .1 4.3 3.0 1.3 3.3 2.5
Gross national product (GNP)...... 3.7 .2 ..... 4.4 2.1 4.8 7.6 2.2 5.1 .2 1.6 -1.4 -.8 -1.1 3.7 3.7 .4 4.4 .....
Disposable personal income........ 4.8 1.8 4.5 2.7 .8 1.5 4.8 8.4 4.8 4.3 1.8 -.1 -.6 10.5 -7.6 14.5 3.9 3.1 2.7
Current-dollar measures:
GDP............................. 5.9 2.6 3.6 4.9 3.5 6.5 8.9 5.7 7.3 2.2 3.2 3.0 .9 1.9 2.2 6.5 2.5 5.1 3.1
Final sales of domestic product. 5.9 3.9 3.0 5.0 5.7 5.6 7.0 7.6 5.5 3.4 3.4 6.6 2.1 2.0 3.6 3.7 1.2 4.5 2.9
Gross domestic purchases........ 7.0 2.4 4.2 6.3 5.5 7.8 9.1 7.4 8.0 3.4 3.4 2.1 .6 -.2 3.4 6.9 4.9 5.2 4.4
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 7.0 3.6 3.6 6.4 7.6 6.9 7.3 9.3 6.2 4.6 3.6 5.5 1.7 -.1 4.8 4.2 3.6 4.6 4.2
GNP............................. 5.9 2.6 ..... 6.3 3.7 6.1 9.4 5.3 7.5 1.9 3.7 2.2 1.7 1.1 3.2 5.1 1.6 5.5 .....
Disposable personal income...... 7.4 3.8 5.9 4.0 3.1 3.7 7.3 12.2 7.2 6.4 4.0 3.2 1.2 10.4 -6.9 15.8 6.7 4.9 4.4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 2.--Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002r I 99 II 99 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change at annual rate:
Gross domestic product.......... 3.8 .3 2.4 3.0 2.0 5.2 7.1 2.6 4.8 .6 1.1 -.6 -1.6 -.3 2.7 5.0 1.3 4.0 1.4
Percentage points at annual rates:
Personal consumption expenditures. 2.94 1.67 2.15 3.06 3.72 3.14 3.45 3.54 2.11 2.54 1.37 1.53 .92 .97 4.05 2.22 1.22 2.93 1.03
Durable goods................... .65 .48 .59 .43 1.09 .81 .81 1.36 -.30 .63 -.44 .87 .42 .36 2.45 -.55 .16 1.74 -.75
Nondurable goods................ .77 .39 .65 .94 .93 .51 1.48 .45 .99 .40 .52 .45 -.07 .25 .73 1.57 -.02 .22 1.00
Services........................ 1.51 .80 .91 1.70 1.70 1.81 1.16 1.73 1.43 1.51 1.29 .21 .57 .35 .87 1.20 1.08 .97 .78
Gross private domestic investment. 1.08 -1.90 .15 1.25 -.86 1.85 2.32 .39 2.92 -1.09 -.55 -3.65 -3.09 -.81 -2.88 2.53 1.16 .55 .92
Fixed investment................ 1.03 -.65 -.49 1.26 1.18 1.01 .53 2.15 1.15 .04 -.41 -.38 -1.95 -.72 -1.49 -.07 -.15 -.03 .67
Nonresidential................ .98 -.66 -.66 .95 .97 .97 .41 1.80 1.28 .46 -.41 -.71 -1.93 -.73 -1.33 -.66 -.27 -.08 .27
Structures.................. .20 -.05 -.52 -.14 -.17 -.20 .18 .40 .25 .37 .12 -.10 -.29 .10 -1.12 -.44 -.53 -.62 -.25
Equipment and software...... .78 -.61 -.14 1.08 1.14 1.17 .22 1.41 1.03 .09 -.53 -.61 -1.64 -.83 -.21 -.22 .26 .53 .52
Residential................... .05 .01 .18 .32 .21 .04 .12 .35 -.13 -.42 .00 .34 -.02 .02 -.16 .60 .12 .05 .41
Change in private inventories... .06 -1.24 .64 -.01 -2.04 .84 1.80 -1.77 1.77 -1.12 -.14 -3.27 -1.14 -.09 -1.39 2.60 1.31 .58 .24
Net exports of goods and services. -.75 -.18 -.67 -1.77 -1.41 -.75 .04 -1.17 -1.00 -.72 -.23 .53 -.42 -.24 -.28 -.75 -1.40 -.01 -1.42
Exports......................... 1.04 -.59 -.15 -.78 .43 1.08 1.31 .82 1.53 1.25 -.46 -.69 -1.42 -1.94 -.99 .33 1.29 .45 -.44
Goods......................... .85 -.47 -.25 -.72 .33 .94 1.11 .51 1.18 1.44 -.60 -.49 -1.34 -1.49 -.56 -.23 .99 .28 -.80
Services...................... .19 -.13 .10 -.06 .10 .14 .20 .31 .35 -.19 .14 -.20 -.08 -.45 -.42 .56 .30 .17 .35
Imports......................... -1.79 .42 -.52 -.99 -1.84 -1.83 -1.27 -1.99 -2.54 -1.97 .23 1.22 1.00 1.70 .70 -1.08 -2.69 -.47 -.98
Goods......................... -1.54 .40 -.45 -1.01 -1.72 -1.64 -1.12 -1.56 -2.32 -1.64 .22 1.21 1.18 1.17 .37 -.40 -2.74 -.40 -.70
Services...................... -.24 .01 -.07 .02 -.12 -.19 -.15 -.43 -.21 -.32 .01 .01 -.18 .53 .33 -.68 .05 -.07 -.28
Government consumption
expenditures and gross investment .49 .65 .82 .51 .50 .93 1.26 -.20 .83 -.18 .51 .99 1.00 -.21 1.85 1.04 .27 .56 .91
Federal......................... .08 .29 .48 -.21 .15 .44 .60 -.85 .91 -.45 .12 .54 .36 .07 .80 .47 .47 .29 .71
National defense.............. .00 .19 .37 -.21 -.01 .52 .39 -.86 .54 -.24 .17 .30 .10 .18 .54 .46 .32 .29 .47
Nondefense.................... .08 .10 .10 .00 .16 -.08 .21 .01 .37 -.21 -.06 .24 .25 -.11 .26 .01 .16 -.01 .24
State and local................. .41 .36 .35 .72 .34 .49 .67 .65 -.08 .28 .39 .45 .64 -.28 1.05 .56 -.21 .27 .20
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1996) dollars
------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------------------
2002r IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02r 2002r IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02r 2002r III 02 IV 02r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP)... 10,445.6 10,152.9 10,313.1 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,586.3 9,440.2 9,248.8 9,363.2 9,392.4 9,485.6 9,519.5 225.7 93.2 33.9
Personal consumption expenditures. 7,301.9 7,099.9 7,174.2 7,254.7 7,360.7 7,417.8 6,575.1 6,464.0 6,513.8 6,542.4 6,609.9 6,634.1 197.9 67.5 24.2
Durable goods................... 871.7 882.6 859.0 856.9 897.8 873.2 999.7 992.0 975.9 980.7 1,032.4 1,009.7 67.8 51.7 -22.7
Motor vehicles and parts...... 376.1 399.5 365.8 362.1 400.7 375.7 382.3 400.4 370.0 369.1 407.6 382.5 20.4 38.5 -25.1
Furniture and household
equipment.................... 318.7 311.5 317.1 319.1 319.2 319.5 438.1 413.6 428.2 435.2 441.4 447.7 40.1 6.2 6.3
Other......................... 176.9 171.5 176.1 175.8 177.9 178.0 185.7 178.9 184.2 184.1 187.0 187.4 10.4 2.9 .4
Nondurable goods................ 2,115.0 2,044.4 2,085.1 2,108.2 2,116.9 2,149.6 1,929.4 1,885.0 1,921.4 1,920.9 1,925.8 1,949.7 59.6 4.9 23.9
Food.......................... 1,029.5 1,002.8 1,025.0 1,023.9 1,024.8 1,044.4 902.4 887.1 901.4 899.2 897.9 911.1 15.4 -1.3 13.2
Clothing and shoes............ 324.3 317.4 325.8 323.9 321.0 326.3 356.9 344.8 355.8 355.1 355.3 361.5 19.2 .2 6.2
Gasoline, fuel oil, and
other energy goods........... 173.4 156.7 156.2 174.7 178.2 184.2 157.4 153.4 157.2 156.5 157.5 158.6 6.2 1.0 1.1
Gasoline and oil............ 158.4 142.2 142.3 160.7 163.5 167.1 145.0 141.4 145.1 144.7 145.4 144.9 6.2 .7 -.5
Fuel oil and coal........... 14.9 14.5 13.9 14.0 14.7 17.1 12.7 12.2 12.4 12.1 12.4 13.9 .1 .3 1.5
Other......................... 587.8 567.5 578.0 585.6 592.9 594.7 515.8 502.0 510.1 513.1 518.0 521.8 20.3 4.9 3.8
Services........................ 4,315.2 4,172.9 4,230.1 4,289.5 4,346.0 4,395.0 3,674.9 3,616.6 3,642.2 3,666.2 3,687.0 3,704.3 80.0 20.8 17.3
Housing....................... 1,071.5 1,035.5 1,051.7 1,066.0 1,078.0 1,090.2 880.1 869.6 874.0 878.5 882.1 885.9 14.1 3.6 3.8
Household operation........... 404.3 396.9 399.2 400.9 406.3 410.6 383.8 377.7 381.3 382.9 384.7 386.5 1.2 1.8 1.8
Electricity and gas......... 147.2 143.1 143.9 144.9 147.4 152.8 135.6 130.2 133.5 133.6 135.7 139.6 1.1 2.1 3.9
Other household operation... 257.0 253.8 255.4 256.1 258.9 257.7 248.4 247.8 248.0 249.5 249.1 247.0 .2 -.4 -2.1
Transportation................ 275.8 269.0 273.3 275.6 276.1 278.2 250.3 248.6 250.9 250.3 249.8 250.0 -.8 -.5 .2
Medical care.................. 1,148.5 1,103.1 1,119.0 1,139.3 1,158.8 1,177.0 978.6 954.9 963.4 974.7 984.4 992.0 40.3 9.7 7.6
Recreation.................... 285.1 276.6 279.0 283.8 285.9 291.8 237.5 234.8 235.6 237.1 237.1 240.3 4.3 .0 3.2
Other......................... 1,129.9 1,091.8 1,107.8 1,123.8 1,140.9 1,147.2 942.8 929.2 935.3 941.0 947.0 947.7 20.1 6.0 .7
Gross private domestic investment. 1,593.0 1,500.7 1,559.4 1,588.0 1,597.3 1,627.2 1,589.5 1,490.3 1,554.0 1,583.9 1,598.0 1,622.1 14.9 14.1 24.1
Fixed investment................ 1,589.3 1,597.2 1,589.4 1,584.6 1,579.7 1,603.7 1,577.4 1,578.4 1,576.4 1,572.6 1,571.6 1,589.2 -50.0 -1.0 17.6
Nonresidential................ 1,117.5 1,149.8 1,126.8 1,115.8 1,109.8 1,117.5 1,183.6 1,206.4 1,188.4 1,181.1 1,178.7 1,186.1 -71.5 -2.4 7.4
Structures.................. 269.3 302.3 288.3 275.2 259.4 254.2 226.4 252.7 243.2 231.7 218.2 212.6 -44.5 -13.5 -5.6
Nonresidential buildings,
including farm........... 179.2 200.4 192.4 182.3 171.1 170.9 145.6 163.5 157.1 148.2 139.1 137.9 -33.1 -9.1 -1.2
Utilities................. 53.0 54.4 56.3 53.9 51.5 50.3 47.3 49.3 50.8 48.4 45.6 44.3 -3.0 -2.8 -1.3
Mining exploration,
shafts, and wells........ 30.6 40.4 32.3 31.7 31.0 27.4 29.2 34.8 30.2 30.3 29.9 26.5 -4.8 -.4 -3.4
Other structures.......... 6.5 7.2 7.3 7.3 5.8 5.6 5.6 6.3 6.3 6.3 5.0 4.8 -3.7 -1.3 -.2
Equipment and software...... 848.2 847.4 838.5 840.7 850.4 863.3 971.3 960.3 953.7 961.4 977.2 992.8 -16.9 15.8 15.6
Information processing
equipment and software... 399.8 385.5 388.7 397.1 406.9 406.4 563.2 531.8 540.4 557.0 575.2 580.0 14.7 18.2 4.8
Computers and
peripheral equipment... 74.2 69.3 71.9 72.8 76.8 75.4 283.6 243.3 262.1 271.6 297.6 303.1 43.7 26.0 5.5
Software................ 182.8 178.9 177.2 181.0 186.3 186.8 185.8 180.6 179.0 184.3 189.4 190.4 3.8 5.1 1.0
Other................... 142.7 137.3 139.6 143.3 143.8 144.2 158.3 151.2 154.1 158.5 159.7 160.8 -5.6 1.2 1.1
Industrial equipment...... 152.1 149.8 153.4 150.5 153.3 151.4 146.9 144.7 148.3 145.6 147.9 145.8 -6.9 2.3 -2.1
Transportation equipment.. 148.9 168.3 154.1 145.2 141.7 154.5 147.0 165.4 151.5 143.4 141.7 151.6 -16.6 -1.7 9.9
Other..................... 147.4 143.8 142.3 148.0 148.5 151.0 139.4 136.2 134.6 140.1 140.3 142.6 -1.3 .2 2.3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See note at the end of the table.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period--Continued
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1996) dollars
------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------------------
2002r IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02r 2002r IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02r 2002r III 02 IV 02r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Residential................... 471.8 447.4 462.6 468.7 469.9 486.2 388.2 371.0 383.6 386.1 387.1 395.9 14.7 1.0 8.8
Structures.................. 462.3 438.0 453.0 459.2 460.4 476.6 378.5 361.5 373.9 376.4 377.4 386.1 14.5 1.0 8.7
Single family............. 246.9 234.3 241.1 244.3 245.3 256.8 200.4 191.3 197.2 198.4 199.8 206.2 7.8 1.4 6.4
Multifamily............... 33.6 31.8 34.2 34.2 33.4 32.6 26.3 25.1 27.0 26.8 26.2 25.2 1.9 -.6 -1.0
Other..................... 181.8 171.9 177.7 180.7 181.7 187.2 151.6 145.1 149.6 151.0 151.3 154.6 4.7 .3 3.3
Equipment................... 9.6 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 .2 .0 .1
Change in private inventories... 3.6 -96.5 -29.9 3.4 17.6 23.5 4.9 -98.4 -28.9 4.9 18.8 24.7 66.3 13.9 5.9
Farm.......................... .5 3.0 5.3 .4 -2.3 -1.4 1.1 3.6 6.4 .8 -2.2 -.8 -.9 -3.0 1.4
Construction, mining,
and utilities................ -.5 4.7 1.6 -1.1 -2.5 .1 -.3 4.3 1.6 -1.0 -2.3 .4 -6.7 -1.3 2.7
Manufacturing................. -12.0 -39.6 -31.1 -14.2 -2.7 .2 -12.1 -40.2 -31.9 -14.1 -2.6 .2 24.1 11.5 2.8
Wholesale trade............... -3.7 -25.4 -19.5 -9.0 7.1 6.6 -3.4 -26.8 -19.8 -8.7 7.9 7.0 13.1 16.6 -.9
Retail trade.................. 16.7 -41.5 13.8 22.2 15.6 15.3 16.5 -40.6 13.8 22.0 15.5 14.9 36.8 -6.5 -.6
Other industries.............. 2.5 2.3 .0 5.1 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.3 .0 5.0 2.3 2.6 -.1 -2.7 .3
Net exports of goods and services. -422.5 -344.5 -360.1 -425.6 -432.9 -471.3 -487.4 -425.3 -446.6 -487.4 -488.0 -527.6 -71.5 -.6 -39.6
Exports......................... 1,015.8 971.1 977.5 1,018.1 1,038.6 1,028.9 1,059.8 1,021.8 1,030.6 1,065.5 1,077.7 1,065.5 -16.3 12.2 -12.2
Goods......................... 703.7 687.7 679.8 709.4 722.6 703.2 757.1 744.6 738.1 765.8 773.5 751.1 -28.1 7.7 -22.4
Foods, feeds, and beverages. 49.5 49.7 49.7 48.6 49.5 50.5 61.0 63.1 63.4 61.3 59.4 59.8 -1.3 -1.9 .4
Industrial supplies and
materials.................. 153.7 147.2 144.9 155.6 156.3 158.2 162.9 159.8 158.5 165.8 163.1 164.1 .7 -2.7 1.0
Capital goods, except
automotive................. 291.4 288.7 284.4 294.1 301.7 285.3 324.9 320.9 316.0 327.7 336.8 319.0 -30.9 9.1 -17.8
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts......... 78.5 74.3 73.8 80.4 82.5 77.4 76.1 72.3 71.7 78.1 79.9 74.7 2.7 1.8 -5.2
Consumer goods, except
automotive................. 84.5 84.5 82.2 84.2 86.0 85.7 84.6 83.9 82.3 84.5 86.0 85.7 -3.3 1.5 -.3
Other....................... 46.0 43.3 44.8 46.4 46.7 46.2 47.3 44.9 46.6 47.9 47.7 47.0 2.8 -.2 -.7
Services...................... 312.0 283.4 297.7 308.8 316.0 325.7 302.2 278.2 292.2 299.7 304.0 313.0 10.2 4.3 9.0
Imports......................... 1,438.2 1,315.6 1,337.5 1,443.7 1,471.5 1,500.3 1,547.2 1,447.2 1,477.1 1,552.9 1,565.7 1,593.1 55.2 12.8 27.4
Goods......................... 1,192.0 1,098.3 1,102.3 1,202.9 1,220.9 1,242.0 1,320.0 1,238.7 1,250.0 1,329.2 1,340.3 1,360.4 49.5 11.1 20.1
Foods, feeds, and beverages. 49.8 47.1 47.5 49.4 50.4 52.1 54.6 52.6 53.2 54.6 55.0 55.8 2.9 .4 .8
Industrial supplies and
materials, except
petroleum and products..... 160.0 149.0 149.5 159.0 163.5 167.9 166.5 158.5 160.8 165.1 169.1 171.0 5.6 4.0 1.9
Petroleum and products...... 103.5 81.0 76.7 108.1 110.7 118.3 86.7 86.7 82.3 88.6 85.5 90.6 -2.5 -3.1 5.1
Capital goods, except
automotive................. 284.1 272.3 277.4 288.4 285.3 285.2 393.3 371.5 382.1 398.2 394.9 398.2 -6.7 -3.3 3.3
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts......... 204.0 187.5 190.4 207.5 210.0 208.2 200.1 184.2 187.3 203.8 205.9 203.5 13.4 2.1 -2.4
Consumer goods, except
automotive................. 307.5 278.6 285.4 307.2 315.0 322.4 326.5 294.2 302.4 326.4 334.4 342.7 27.6 8.0 8.3
Other....................... 83.1 82.8 75.4 83.2 86.0 87.9 83.8 83.6 76.4 84.0 86.6 88.0 4.0 2.6 1.4
Services...................... 246.2 217.3 235.2 240.8 250.6 258.3 227.1 208.9 225.5 224.3 226.0 232.7 4.7 1.7 6.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See note at the end of the table.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period--Continued
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1996) dollars
------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------------------
2002r IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02r 2002r IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02r 2002r III 02 IV 02r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Government consumption
expenditures and
gross investment................. 1,973.3 1,896.8 1,939.5 1,959.8 1,981.1 2,012.7 1,713.1 1,674.5 1,697.3 1,703.3 1,715.6 1,736.3 72.7 12.3 20.7
Federal......................... 693.7 646.9 672.0 688.2 697.7 717.0 613.3 587.2 597.8 608.7 615.1 631.6 42.7 6.4 16.5
National defense.............. 447.5 412.8 431.7 442.1 451.2 464.8 400.1 378.0 388.5 395.8 402.5 413.5 34.1 6.7 11.0
Consumption expenditures.... 386.6 356.0 372.1 382.5 388.9 403.0 337.0 319.1 326.7 333.9 338.0 349.3 28.1 4.1 11.3
Gross investment............ 60.9 56.8 59.7 59.6 62.4 61.9 63.5 59.0 62.2 62.2 65.0 64.3 6.2 2.8 -.7
Nondefense.................... 246.2 234.1 240.3 246.1 246.5 252.2 213.3 209.1 209.3 212.9 212.7 218.2 8.9 -.2 5.5
Consumption expenditures.... 199.9 187.5 194.2 198.6 200.9 205.8 167.8 163.7 164.3 166.5 167.9 172.6 6.7 1.4 4.7
Gross investment............ 46.4 46.6 46.1 47.5 45.5 46.3 45.8 45.9 45.4 47.0 45.1 45.9 2.2 -1.9 .8
State and local................. 1,279.5 1,249.8 1,267.5 1,271.6 1,283.3 1,295.7 1,099.9 1,087.1 1,099.3 1,094.7 1,100.6 1,105.1 30.5 5.9 4.5
Consumption expenditures.... 1,034.5 1,008.2 1,017.7 1,030.6 1,039.6 1,050.1 881.1 870.7 875.9 879.4 883.0 886.1 24.3 3.6 3.1
Gross investment............ 245.1 241.7 249.7 241.1 243.8 245.6 218.9 216.5 223.7 215.3 217.6 219.0 6.1 2.3 1.4
Residual.......................... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... -87.5 -53.5 -71.2 -75.8 -102.5 -99.7 -44.6 -26.7 2.8
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product. 10,442.0 10,249.4 10,343.0 10,373.5 10,488.7 10,562.8 9,424.9 9,324.9 9,379.4 9,377.9 9,457.2 9,485.3 166.5 79.3 28.1
Gross domestic purchases........ 10,868.1 10,497.4 10,673.1 10,802.4 10,939.1 11,057.7 9,889.1 9,645.3 9,778.2 9,840.8 9,934.7 10,002.8 288.4 93.9 68.1
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 10,864.5 10,593.9 10,703.1 10,799.0 10,921.5 11,034.2 9,873.7 9,722.3 9,794.4 9,826.0 9,906.1 9,968.3 228.8 80.1 62.2
Gross domestic product.......... 10,445.6 10,152.9 10,313.1 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,586.3 9,440.2 9,248.8 9,363.2 9,392.4 9,485.6 9,519.5 225.7 93.2 33.9
Plus: Income receipts from
the rest of the world.......... ..... 269.0 264.7 276.0 287.3 ..... ..... 247.4 242.8 251.8 261.3 ..... ..... 9.5 .....
Less: Income payments to
the rest of the world.......... ..... 233.7 262.8 296.1 298.2 ..... ..... 213.1 239.2 268.2 269.5 ..... ..... 1.3 .....
Equals: Gross national product.. ..... 10,188.1 10,314.9 10,356.8 10,495.3 ..... ..... 9,283.5 9,367.5 9,376.7 9,477.9 ..... ..... 101.2 .....
Net domestic product............ 9,052.3 8,814.3 8,949.6 8,987.0 9,101.0 9,171.5 8,056.1 7,926.7 8,017.7 8,017.0 8,085.5 8,104.3 150.7 68.5 18.8
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
Note.--Users are cautioned that particularly for components
for which relative prices are changing rapidly, the use of
chained-dollar estimates to calculate component shares or component
contributions to real growth may be misleading even just a few years
from the base year. For accurate estimates of the contributions to
percent changes in real GDP, use table 2.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 4.--Chain-Type Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002r I 99 II 99 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.6
Personal consumption expenditures... 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 3.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 3.3 1.8 -.1 .8 1.1 2.7 1.7 1.6
Durable goods..................... -1.7 -1.9 -2.8 -3.3 -1.9 -1.7 -2.0 -2.0 -.8 -2.2 -1.2 -1.2 -3.4 -2.7 -1.5 -4.2 -2.9 -1.9 -2.2
Nondurable goods.................. 3.8 1.5 .4 1.8 4.6 3.4 3.7 5.3 3.0 2.8 1.8 1.8 2.9 -1.4 -3.5 .2 4.6 .6 1.2
Services.......................... 2.8 3.1 2.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.6 2.5 2.6 3.2 5.1 2.3 1.1 3.5 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.6
Gross private domestic investment... 1.0 1.2 -.5 .2 -.1 -.5 .5 2.1 1.2 1.7 1.2 2.0 1.1 -.4 -.2 -1.5 -.4 -1.1 1.5
Fixed investment.................. 1.1 1.2 -.4 .3 .0 -.4 .5 2.3 1.3 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.2 -.2 -.1 -1.5 -.2 -.9 1.6
Nonresidential.................. .1 .2 -1.4 -1.0 -1.5 -1.6 -.5 .7 .4 1.3 .5 .4 .1 -1.1 -1.6 -2.0 -1.4 -1.3 .3
Structures.................... 4.0 5.0 -.7 1.3 1.8 2.2 3.2 5.3 4.0 4.6 5.3 10.5 4.2 -.3 -1.6 -3.6 .7 .4 2.3
Equipment and software........ -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 -2.5 -2.8 -1.6 -.7 -.8 .2 -1.1 -2.9 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.5 -2.1 -1.9 -.3
Residential..................... 4.4 4.1 2.1 4.1 4.5 3.3 3.2 7.0 3.9 3.1 3.7 5.6 4.5 2.5 3.7 .0 2.6 .0 4.7
Change in private inventories..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... 1.4 -.8 -.2 -1.3 .4 .7 1.7 2.0 2.0 .8 .1 -.8 -1.7 -1.9 -3.8 -.8 3.0 3.5 .8
Goods........................... 1.2 -.7 -.5 -1.4 -.3 .7 2.2 1.3 1.6 .4 .4 -.2 -1.5 -2.4 -3.7 -1.1 2.3 3.4 .9
Services........................ 2.1 -1.0 .3 -1.0 2.1 .8 .5 3.9 3.0 2.0 -.4 -2.3 -2.1 -.6 -4.2 .0 4.6 3.7 .5
Imports........................... 4.5 -2.9 .3 -3.8 4.9 5.8 5.5 6.6 1.1 4.6 .9 -2.5 -5.9 -17.0 4.7 -1.6 11.1 4.4 .8
Goods........................... 4.8 -2.9 -1.7 -2.5 5.2 6.3 6.3 6.8 1.2 4.5 .8 -3.7 -6.4 -6.6 -11.1 -2.1 10.9 2.7 .9
Services........................ 3.3 -2.9 11.8 -10.0 3.7 3.7 1.7 5.9 .7 4.8 1.1 3.8 -3.2 -57.7 167.5 1.1 12.2 13.6 .5
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 3.9 2.4 1.7 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.1 6.4 3.0 2.9 2.7 4.2 1.8 -.3 -.3 3.6 2.8 1.4 1.5
Federal........................... 3.0 1.7 2.7 4.7 1.8 2.1 1.6 8.1 .7 1.6 .1 4.6 1.5 .5 -.4 8.4 2.3 1.3 .3
National defense................ 3.0 1.6 2.4 4.7 1.5 2.0 1.9 7.5 .7 2.0 .6 4.0 1.1 .6 -1.1 7.3 2.0 1.5 1.1
Nondefense...................... 3.1 1.9 3.4 4.7 2.5 2.3 .9 9.3 .6 .9 -.7 5.6 2.2 .4 .7 10.4 2.9 1.0 -1.2
State and local................... 4.3 2.7 1.1 2.5 4.5 3.7 3.9 5.5 4.2 3.6 4.0 4.1 1.9 -.8 -.3 1.1 3.1 1.5 2.2
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product... 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.7 3.1 2.4 1.7 2.1 3.6 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.6
Gross domestic purchases.......... 2.5 1.9 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.3 1.7 -.2 .4 1.2 2.3 1.2 1.6
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 2.5 1.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.2 1.7 -.1 .5 1.1 2.3 1.3 1.6
Gross national product (GNP)...... 2.1 2.4 ..... 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 .....
Implicit price deflators:
GDP............................. 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.6
Gross domestic purchases........ 2.5 1.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.2 1.7 -.1 .4 1.2 2.3 1.2 1.6
GNP............................. 2.1 2.4 ..... 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.7 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 .....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 5.--Quantity and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product
[Index numbers, 1996=100]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted
---------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002r IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02r
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product:
Chain-type quantity index........ 117.64 117.94 120.82 118.37 119.84 120.21 121.41 121.84
Chain-type price index........... 106.89 109.42 110.65 109.78 110.14 110.48 110.76 111.21
Implicit price deflator.......... 106.89 109.42 110.65 109.78 110.14 110.48 110.76 111.21
Personal consumption expenditures:
Chain-type quantity index................ 118.83 121.76 125.54 123.42 124.37 124.92 126.20 126.67
Chain-type price index................... 107.39 109.56 111.05 109.84 110.14 110.89 111.36 111.81
Durable goods:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 142.58 151.16 162.16 160.91 158.30 159.08 167.47 163.78
Chain-type price index................. 91.46 89.70 87.19 88.95 88.00 87.36 86.94 86.46
Nondurable goods:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 116.50 118.79 122.58 119.76 122.07 122.03 122.35 123.86
Chain-type price index................. 107.59 109.17 109.61 108.45 108.52 109.75 109.92 110.25
Services:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 115.67 117.98 120.61 118.69 119.54 120.32 121.01 121.57
Chain-type price index................. 110.85 114.32 117.42 115.39 116.15 117.00 117.88 118.65
Private fixed investment:
Chain-type quantity index................ 139.52 134.20 130.08 130.16 129.99 129.68 129.60 131.04
Chain-type price index................... 100.00 101.16 100.75 101.19 100.82 100.76 100.52 100.91
Nonresidential:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 147.23 139.55 131.59 134.13 132.13 131.32 131.05 131.87
Chain-type price index................. 95.59 95.73 94.43 95.31 94.82 94.48 94.17 94.23
Residential:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 118.88 119.22 123.92 118.44 122.44 123.25 123.59 126.39
Chain-type price index................. 114.40 119.09 121.54 120.60 120.61 121.40 121.38 122.78
Exports of goods and services:
Chain-type quantity index................ 130.09 123.10 121.24 116.89 117.89 121.89 123.28 121.89
Chain-type price index................... 96.83 96.10 95.87 95.06 94.88 95.58 96.41 96.60
Imports of goods and services:
Chain-type quantity index................ 159.48 154.91 160.64 150.26 153.37 161.24 162.56 165.41
Chain-type price index................... 95.49 92.70 92.98 90.97 90.61 93.03 94.05 94.24
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment:
Chain-type quantity index................ 111.29 115.36 120.48 117.76 119.37 119.79 120.65 122.11
Chain-type price index................... 110.65 113.27 115.18 113.27 114.27 115.06 115.47 115.92
Federal:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 102.42 107.33 115.38 110.46 112.46 114.50 115.71 118.82
Chain-type price index................. 108.23 110.09 113.11 110.18 112.42 113.07 113.44 113.51
State and local:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 116.52 120.11 123.54 122.09 123.47 122.95 123.62 124.12
Chain-type price index................. 111.98 115.01 116.33 114.97 115.29 116.17 116.60 117.25
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 117.19 118.95 121.09 119.81 120.51 120.49 121.51 121.87
Chain-type price index................. 107.02 109.55 110.79 109.91 110.28 110.62 110.91 111.36
Implicit price deflator................ 107.02 109.55 110.79 109.91 110.27 110.62 110.91 111.36
Gross domestic purchases:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 121.00 121.50 125.15 122.06 123.74 124.53 125.72 126.58
Chain-type price index................. 106.58 108.65 109.89 108.84 109.15 109.77 110.11 110.55
Implicit price deflator................ 106.58 108.65 109.90 108.83 109.15 109.77 110.11 110.55
Final sales to domestic purchasers:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 120.56 122.52 125.43 123.50 124.42 124.82 125.84 126.63
Chain-type price index................. 106.70 108.78 110.03 108.97 109.28 109.90 110.25 110.69
Implicit price deflator................ 106.70 108.78 110.03 108.97 109.28 109.90 110.25 110.69
Gross national product:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 117.69 117.96 ..... 118.54 119.62 119.73 121.03 .....
Chain-type price index................. 106.86 109.39 ..... 109.75 110.11 110.45 110.73 .....
Implicit price deflator................ 106.86 109.38 ..... 109.74 110.11 110.45 110.73 .....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 6.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective
[Percent change from preceding year]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002r
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 3.4 4.2 3.5 1.8 -.5 3.0 2.7 4.0 2.7 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.8 .3 2.4
Personal consumption expenditures...... 3.3 4.0 2.7 1.8 -.2 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.0 3.2 3.6 4.8 4.9 4.4 2.5 3.1
Durable goods........................ 1.7 5.8 2.1 -.9 -6.6 5.3 8.2 7.6 4.6 5.6 6.6 10.5 11.8 8.2 6.0 7.3
Nondurable goods..................... 2.4 3.2 2.7 1.4 -.4 1.9 2.9 3.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 4.1 4.7 3.9 2.0 3.2
Services............................. 4.3 4.1 2.8 2.8 1.4 2.9 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.3 4.0 3.7 3.8 2.0 2.2
Gross private domestic investment...... 2.5 2.7 3.7 -3.1 -8.6 8.5 8.7 13.2 3.0 9.0 12.1 11.8 6.6 6.2 -10.7 1.0
Fixed investment..................... .0 3.6 2.7 -1.8 -6.9 6.5 8.1 9.1 6.0 9.3 9.6 11.4 7.8 6.1 -3.8 -3.1
Nonresidential..................... -.1 5.4 5.5 .7 -4.9 3.4 8.4 8.9 9.8 10.0 12.2 12.5 8.1 7.8 -5.2 -5.7
Structures....................... -3.6 1.3 2.5 1.5 -11.0 -6.1 .8 .8 4.8 7.1 9.1 6.8 -1.3 6.5 -1.7 -16.4
Equipment and software........... 1.7 7.5 7.0 .4 -2.0 7.4 11.3 11.9 11.5 11.0 13.3 14.6 11.5 8.2 -6.4 -1.7
Residential........................ .2 -.5 -4.1 -8.6 -12.8 16.3 7.3 9.7 -3.6 7.4 2.0 8.0 6.7 1.1 .3 3.9
Change in private inventories........ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. 11.2 16.1 11.8 8.7 6.5 6.2 3.3 8.9 10.3 8.2 12.3 2.1 3.4 9.7 -5.4 -1.5
Goods.............................. 11.1 18.8 12.6 8.2 7.1 6.8 3.0 9.7 11.9 8.7 14.5 2.1 3.8 11.3 -5.9 -3.6
Services........................... 11.6 9.3 9.6 10.0 5.1 4.6 4.1 7.2 6.4 6.8 7.0 2.3 2.5 6.0 -4.0 3.5
Imports.............................. 6.1 3.8 3.9 3.8 -.5 6.6 9.1 12.0 8.2 8.6 13.7 11.8 10.9 13.2 -2.9 3.7
Goods.............................. 4.6 4.1 4.2 3.0 -.1 9.3 10.1 13.3 9.0 9.4 14.2 11.7 12.2 13.5 -3.3 3.9
Services........................... 12.6 2.7 2.8 7.6 -2.3 -4.0 4.7 5.8 4.1 4.8 10.9 11.9 4.2 11.6 -.5 2.1
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. 3.0 1.2 2.8 3.3 1.2 .5 -.8 .1 .5 1.1 2.4 1.9 3.9 2.7 3.7 4.4
Federal.............................. 3.7 -1.8 1.3 2.0 -.3 -1.6 -3.9 -3.6 -2.7 -.9 -.4 -.8 2.3 1.3 4.8 7.5
National defense................... 4.7 -.8 -.8 .0 -1.1 -4.9 -5.4 -4.8 -3.7 -1.3 -2.6 -1.8 2.1 -.1 5.0 9.3
Nondefense......................... .5 -5.2 8.4 8.3 1.8 7.1 -.3 -1.0 -.5 .0 4.2 1.1 2.7 3.6 4.5 4.3
State and local...................... 2.3 3.7 3.9 4.2 2.3 2.0 1.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 4.0 3.4 4.7 3.5 3.1 2.9
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product...... 3.0 4.3 3.3 2.0 -.2 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.3 3.7 1.5 1.8
Gross domestic purchases............. 3.1 3.2 2.9 1.4 -1.1 3.1 3.3 4.4 2.5 3.7 4.7 5.4 5.0 4.4 .4 3.0
Final sales to domestic purchasers... 2.7 3.4 2.7 1.6 -.9 2.8 3.2 3.8 3.0 3.7 4.3 5.3 5.2 4.3 1.6 2.4
Gross national product............... 3.3 4.2 3.5 1.9 -.5 3.0 2.6 3.9 2.7 3.5 4.3 4.2 4.4 3.7 .2 .....
Real disposable personal income...... 2.1 4.4 2.6 2.2 .4 3.1 1.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.1 5.4 2.6 4.8 1.8 4.5
Gross domestic purchases price
index............................... 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.1 3.4 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.6 .8 1.5 2.5 1.9 1.1
GDP price index...................... 3.0 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.4 1.1
Personal consumption expenditures
price index......................... 3.8 3.9 4.4 4.6 3.8 3.1 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.5 2.0 1.4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
Table 7.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I 99 II 99 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02r
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.9 3.7 2.3 1.5 -.1 -.4 .1 1.4 2.2 3.3 2.9
Personal consumption expenditures...... 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.5 4.3 3.5 2.8 2.4 1.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.8 2.6
Durable goods........................ 12.3 11.7 13.3 10.0 13.1 8.4 7.8 3.8 2.4 4.7 3.8 13.2 8.4 7.5 11.9 1.8
Nondurable goods..................... 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.9 4.2 4.3 4.1 3.0 3.0 1.7 1.5 1.7 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4
Services............................. 3.6 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.8 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.4
Gross private domestic investment...... 6.3 6.8 6.6 6.6 5.3 11.0 6.4 2.2 -3.8 -11.9 -11.7 -15.1 -6.5 .0 2.3 8.8
Fixed investment..................... 9.0 7.9 8.4 5.9 7.3 7.1 5.7 4.3 .5 -4.0 -5.1 -6.7 -6.3 -3.7 -2.7 .7
Nonresidential..................... 8.9 7.8 9.4 6.6 8.3 8.9 7.8 6.2 1.1 -5.1 -7.4 -9.3 -9.4 -6.3 -5.1 -1.7
Structures....................... 2.6 -2.2 -3.1 -2.5 1.8 5.2 10.0 9.3 5.0 .8 -1.4 -10.6 -13.3 -15.6 -21.1 -15.9
Equipment and software........... 11.1 11.3 13.8 9.7 10.5 10.1 7.2 5.2 -.2 -7.1 -9.5 -8.8 -8.0 -2.9 1.1 3.4
Residential........................ 9.3 8.2 5.6 4.0 4.1 2.1 -.6 -1.2 -1.2 -.6 2.0 1.0 2.4 3.2 3.4 6.7
Change in private inventories........ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. .4 2.5 5.7 4.9 8.8 11.4 11.6 7.3 3.7 -3.1 -10.1 -11.4 -9.3 -3.0 2.8 4.3
Goods.............................. -.2 3.2 6.4 5.6 9.9 12.8 14.3 8.3 4.9 -3.3 -12.1 -12.3 -11.7 -4.3 1.8 .9
Services........................... 1.9 .8 4.2 3.2 6.1 8.1 5.3 4.8 .7 -2.6 -4.7 -9.2 -3.1 .0 5.3 12.5
Imports.............................. 9.0 10.0 12.6 11.9 13.5 14.3 14.1 11.1 5.2 -1.0 -7.1 -8.0 -4.1 2.6 6.7 10.1
Goods.............................. 10.1 11.3 14.3 13.0 13.9 14.7 14.3 11.1 5.1 -2.1 -7.5 -7.9 -4.8 3.8 7.3 9.8
Services........................... 3.4 3.5 4.1 5.9 10.9 11.6 13.0 10.9 5.9 5.7 -4.5 -8.6 -1.4 -3.9 3.4 11.4
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. 4.1 3.0 3.8 4.5 3.5 3.9 2.3 1.3 3.0 3.3 3.2 5.1 5.0 4.0 5.0 3.7
Federal.............................. 2.4 .1 2.9 4.0 1.2 4.4 .7 -1.2 4.7 2.4 4.6 7.5 6.9 7.3 8.1 7.6
National defense................... 2.8 -.3 1.7 4.4 .0 3.7 -1.3 -2.5 5.2 2.2 5.1 7.4 8.2 9.5 10.1 9.4
Nondefense......................... 1.6 .8 5.2 3.4 3.4 5.7 4.2 1.1 3.9 2.6 3.9 7.6 4.7 3.5 4.7 4.4
State and local...................... 5.0 4.5 4.3 4.8 4.6 3.6 3.2 2.6 2.2 3.7 2.5 3.9 4.1 2.3 3.4 1.7
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product...... 4.4 4.1 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.2 3.6 2.6 2.2 1.4 .9 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.5 1.7
Gross domestic purchases............. 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.5 4.3 2.9 1.7 .1 -.3 .1 1.8 2.8 3.7 3.7
Final sales to domestic purchasers... 5.5 5.0 5.4 5.1 5.2 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.5 1.5 .9 1.6 1.8 2.2 3.0 2.5
Gross national product............... 4.2 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.2 4.9 3.7 2.2 1.3 -.1 -.4 .1 1.4 1.7 3.0 .....
Real disposable personal income...... 3.7 2.4 1.9 2.4 3.8 4.9 5.6 4.8 2.7 1.3 2.8 .3 3.8 5.0 3.2 5.9
Gross domestic purchases price
index............................... 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.7 1.3 .8 .9 1.3 1.6
GDP price index...................... 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.4 1.1 .8 1.3
Personal consumption expenditures
price index......................... 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 1.8 1.5 .9 1.1 1.6 1.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
Table 8.--Relation of Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and National Income
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002r IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02r
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product..................... 9,824.6 10,082.2 10,445.6 10,152.9 10,313.1 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,586.3
Plus: Income receipts from
the rest of the world..................... 383.4 316.9 ..... 269.0 264.7 276.0 287.3 .....
Less: Income payments to
the rest of the world..................... 360.0 295.0 ..... 233.7 262.8 296.1 298.2 .....
Equals: Gross national product............. 9,848.0 10,104.1 ..... 10,188.1 10,314.9 10,356.8 10,495.3 .....
Less: Consumption of fixed capital......... 1,228.9 1,329.3 1,393.3 1,338.6 1,363.5 1,389.8 1,405.3 1,414.9
Less: Indirect business tax and
nontax liability.......................... 753.6 774.8 800.4 779.9 786.2 795.1 806.9 813.5
Less: Business transfer payments........... 43.7 42.5 44.2 42.8 43.8 43.9 44.4 44.5
Less: Statistical discrepancy.............. -128.5 -117.3 ..... -132.6 -110.0 -165.0 -120.3 .....
Plus: Subsidies less current
surplus of government enterprises......... 34.1 47.3 32.5 37.5 37.0 35.1 29.1 28.9
Equals: National income.................... 7,984.4 8,122.0 ..... 8,196.8 8,268.5 8,328.0 8,388.1 .....
Compensation of employees................ 5,723.4 5,874.9 5,998.4 5,860.9 5,908.4 5,963.9 6,026.6 6,094.5
Wage and salary accruals............... 4,836.3 4,950.6 5,023.6 4,931.4 4,957.8 4,997.3 5,043.6 5,095.7
Supplements to wages and salaries...... 887.1 924.3 974.7 929.4 950.7 966.6 982.9 998.8
Proprietors' income with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 714.8 727.9 756.5 731.3 748.4 747.5 758.7 771.6
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment.......... 146.6 137.9 142.8 139.3 141.3 153.5 144.1 132.4
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 788.1 731.6 ..... 811.4 797.6 785.0 771.0 .....
Net interest............................. 611.5 649.8 682.7 653.9 672.8 678.1 687.6 692.4
Addendum:
Gross domestic income.................... 9,953.1 10,199.4 ..... 10,285.5 10,423.1 10,541.8 10,626.5 .....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
Table 9.--Personal Income and Its Disposition
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002r IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02r
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income\1\......................... 8,406.6 8,685.3 8,947.2 8,700.9 8,803.4 8,914.0 8,993.3 9,077.8
Wage and salary disbursements............ 4,836.3 4,950.6 5,023.6 4,931.4 4,957.8 4,997.3 5,043.6 5,095.7
Other labor income....................... 544.2 570.4 610.6 576.3 590.8 604.1 617.5 630.2
Proprietors' income with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments................. 714.8 727.9 756.5 731.3 748.4 747.5 758.7 771.6
Farm................................... 22.6 19.0 12.9 19.2 21.7 7.5 10.7 11.7
Nonfarm................................ 692.2 708.8 743.6 712.1 726.7 740.0 748.0 759.9
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment.......... 146.6 137.9 142.8 139.3 141.3 153.5 144.1 132.4
Personal dividend income................. 375.7 409.2 433.8 417.3 423.7 430.3 437.3 443.8
Personal interest income................. 1,077.0 1,091.3 1,077.2 1,072.9 1,069.9 1,082.3 1,080.7 1,076.1
Transfer payments to persons............. 1,070.3 1,170.4 1,288.0 1,205.0 1,252.0 1,282.6 1,298.4 1,318.9
Less: Personal contributions for
social insurance........................ 358.4 372.3 385.5 372.7 380.5 383.6 387.0 390.9
Less: Personal tax and nontax payments..... 1,286.4 1,292.1 1,118.1 1,309.7 1,136.8 1,121.8 1,107.3 1,106.4
Equals: Disposable personal income......... 7,120.2 7,393.2 7,829.1 7,391.2 7,666.7 7,792.2 7,886.0 7,971.5
Less: Personal outlays..................... 6,918.6 7,223.5 7,522.8 7,329.6 7,396.3 7,477.9 7,583.0 7,633.9
Equals: Personal saving.................... 201.5 169.7 306.3 61.5 270.4 314.3 303.0 337.6
Addenda:
Disposable personal income,
billions of chained (1996) dollars\2\... 6,630.3 6,748.0 7,049.8 6,729.1 6,961.0 7,027.2 7,081.6 7,129.3
Personal saving as a percentage of
disposable personal income.............. 2.8 2.3 3.9 .8 3.5 4.0 3.8 4.2
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
1. Personal income is also equal to national income less corporate
profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,
net interest, contributions for social insurance, and wage accruals
less disbursements, plus personal interest income, personal dividend
income, government transfer payments to persons, and business
transfer payments to persons.
2. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price
deflator for personal consumption expenditures.
Appendix Table A.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Aggregates and Price Indexes: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002r I 99 II 99 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GDP and related aggregates:
GDP............................... 3.8 .3 2.4 3.0 2.0 5.2 7.1 2.6 4.8 .6 1.1 -.6 -1.6 -.3 2.7 5.0 1.3 4.0 1.4
Goods............................. 4.7 -2.3 3.3 1.4 1.5 8.2 12.0 1.4 6.9 -.5 -2.7 -4.4 -5.7 -1.5 4.3 8.3 .4 9.0 -1.6
Services.......................... 3.3 2.1 2.8 3.7 2.9 4.3 3.9 2.0 5.0 1.6 3.7 .9 1.2 1.8 3.2 2.8 3.5 2.5 3.1
Structures........................ 2.7 -.1 -2.7 5.7 -1.5 -1.9 6.2 10.7 -3.6 -1.2 1.7 6.1 -1.3 -7.1 -5.6 6.1 -8.4 -5.5 3.2
Motor vehicle output.............. -2.7 -6.1 12.9 -11.1 -2.0 21.0 2.0 -1.6 -7.9 -16.4 -18.1 -19.1 19.4 10.7 16.3 9.9 8.1 37.1 -12.9
GDP less motor vehicle output..... 4.0 .5 2.1 3.6 2.1 4.6 7.3 2.7 5.4 1.2 1.8 .0 -2.2 -.6 2.3 4.9 1.0 3.0 2.0
Final sales of computers\1\....... 29.5 9.1 12.9 36.4 61.8 35.1 -3.9 56.9 45.2 9.6 10.2 30.0 -19.1 -5.3 28.9 -7.8 13.1 78.5 25.3
GDP less final sales of computers. 3.5 .2 2.4 2.8 1.5 4.9 7.2 2.2 4.5 .5 1.0 -.8 -1.4 -.2 2.6 5.1 1.2 3.6 1.3
Farm product\2\................... 11.5 -5.1 .4 7.3 25.7 -7.3 8.7 35.1 4.7 15.3 -19.1 -10.6 -17.5 -4.3 74.0 -14.2 -26.7 7.9 9.5
Nonfarm business less housing
product\3\....................... 4.1 -.1 2.8 3.2 1.8 6.0 8.5 2.1 5.6 .3 1.2 -.9 -2.8 -.8 3.0 6.3 .9 5.4 1.9
Price indexes:
GDP............................... 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.6
GDP less food and energy.......... 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.6 1.9 2.8 1.6 2.8 .0 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.4
GDP less final sales of computers. 2.3 2.6 1.3 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.9 3.3 2.5 1.8 2.2 4.1 2.7 2.4 -.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.8
Gross domestic purchases.......... 2.5 1.9 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.3 1.7 -.2 .4 1.2 2.3 1.2 1.6
Gross domestic purchases less
food and energy.................. 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.7 2.7 1.9 1.5 1.7 2.9 1.3 .6 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.3
Gross domestic purchases less
final sales of computers......... 2.8 2.2 1.3 1.8 2.4 2.2 2.4 3.9 2.4 2.4 2.3 3.8 2.0 .1 .7 1.4 2.4 1.4 1.8
Personal consumption expenditures. 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 3.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 3.3 1.8 -.1 .8 1.1 2.7 1.7 1.6
Personal consumption expenditures
less food and energy............. 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.8 2.8 1.2 .7 2.7 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
1. For some components of final sales of computers, includes
computer parts.
2. Farm output less intermediate goods and services purchased.
3. Consists of GDP less gross product of farm, of housing,
of households and institutions, and of general government.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Explanatory Note: Measures of Output and Prices
This note describes the calculation of chain-type quantity and price indexes used in the NIPA's.
Changes in current-dollar GDP measure changes in the market value of goods, services, and structures produced in the
economy in a particular period. These changes can be decomposed into quantity and price components. Quantities, or
"real" measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with the reference year--at present, the year 1996--equal to
100.
The annual changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two
adjacent years. (Quarterly changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights
from two adjacent quarters; quarterly indexes are adjusted for consistency to the annual indexes before percent changes
are calculated.) For example, the 2000-01 annual percent change in real GDP uses prices for 2000 and 2001 as weights,
and the 2000-01 annual percent change in GDP prices uses quantities for 2000 and 2001 as weights. These annual
changes are "chained" (multiplied) together to form time series of quantity and price indexes. The Fisher formula
produces percent changes in quantities and prices that are not affected by the choice of reference years. In addition,
because the changes in quantities and prices calculated in this way are symmetric, in general, the product of a quantity
index and the corresponding price index equals the current-dollar index. (BEA also publishes a measure of the price level
known as the "implicit price deflator (IPD)," which is calculated as the ratio of current-dollar value to the corresponding
chained-dollar value, multiplied by 100. The values of the IPD are very close to the values of the corresponding
"chain-type" price index for all periods.)
Chain-type quantity and price indexes for GDP and its major components are presented in this release as index
numbers in table 5 and in the form of percentage changes from the preceding period in tables 1, 4, 6 and from the quarter
one year ago in table 7. Contributions by major components to changes in real GDP are presented in table 2. BEA also
prepares measures of real GDP and its components in a dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (1996) dollar
estimates." For GDP and most other series, these estimates, which are presented in table 3, are computed by multiplying
the 1996 current-dollar value by a corresponding quantity index number and then dividing by 100. For example, if a
current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 1996 and if real output for this component increased 10 percent in 1997,
then the chained (1996) dollar value of this component in 1997 would be $110 ($100 x 1.10).
For analyses of changes over time in an aggregate or in a component, the percentage changes calculated from the
chained-dollar estimates and from the chain-type quantity indexes are the same; any differences will be small and due to
rounding. However, because the relative prices used as weights for any period other than the reference year differ from
those used for the reference year, the chained-dollar values for the detailed GDP components will not necessarily sum to
the chained-dollar estimate of GDP or to any intermediate aggregate. A measure of the extent of such differences is
provided by a "residual" line, which indicates the difference between GDP (or another major aggregate) and the sum of
the most detailed components in the table. For periods close to the reference year, when there usually has not been much
change in the relative prices that are used as weights for the chain-type index, the residuals tend to be small, and the
chained (1996) dollar estimates can be used to approximate the contributions to growth and to aggregate the detailed
estimates. As one moves further from the reference year, the residual tends to become larger, and the chained-dollar
estimates become less useful for analyses of contributions to growth. Thus, the contributions to percent change shown in
table 2 provide a better measure of the composition of GDP growth. In particular, for components for which relative
prices are changing rapidly, calculation of contributions using chained-dollar estimates may be misleading even just a few
years from the reference year.
References: "A Preview of the 1999 Comprehensive Revision of the NIPA's: Statistical Changes," October 1999 Survey,
pp. 6-17; "A Guide to the NIPA's," March 1998 Survey, pp. 36-40; "BEA's Chain Indexes, Time Series, and Measures of
Long-Term Economic Growth," May 1997 Survey, pp. 58-68.
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