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Virginia H. Mannering: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) BEA 03-17
Kenneth A. Petrick: (202) 606-9738 (Profits)
Recorded message: (202) 606-5306
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FIRST QUARTER 2003 (PRELIMINARY)
CORPORATE PROFITS: FIRST QUARTER 2003 (PRELIMINARY)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2003,
according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter,
real GDP increased 1.4 percent.
The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for
the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 1.6
percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).
The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) and residential fixed investment. The contributions of these components were
partly offset by negative contributions from equipment and software and from private inventory
investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
BOX
As announced in the November 2002 issue of the Survey of Current Business, the Bureau of
Economic Analysis plans to release the results of its 12th comprehensive (or benchmark) revision of the
national income and product accounts (NIPA's) on December 10, 2003. The annual revision of the
NIPA's that would normally take place this summer will instead be combined with the upcoming
comprehensive revision. Beginning with the June 2003 issue of the Survey, a series of articles will be
presented that discuss the revision.
FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (1996)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA's Web site at <www.bea.gov/newsreleases/rels.htm>.
The small acceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter primarily reflected a downturn in
imports, a smaller decrease in exports, an upturn in nonresidential structures, and an acceleration in PCE
that were partly offset by a downturn in equipment and software, a deceleration in government spending,
and a downturn in private inventory investment.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 3.6 percent in the first quarter, the same as in the advance estimate; this index increased 1.8
percent in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic
purchases increased 2.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the
fourth. About 0.3 percentage point of the first-quarter increase in the index was accounted for by the
pay raise for federal civilian and military personnel, which is treated as an increase in the price of
employee services purchased by the federal government.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with
an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth. Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 4.8 percent, in
contrast to an increase of 2.3 percent. Nonresidential structures increased 0.4 percent, in contrast to a
decrease of 9.9 percent. Equipment and software decreased 6.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 6.2
percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 11.0 percent, compared with an increase of 9.4
percent.
Real exports of goods and services decreased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with a
decrease of 5.8 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services decreased 7.1 percent, in
contrast to an increase of 7.4 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.9 percent in
the first quarter, compared with an increase of 11.0 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased
3.4 percent, in contrast to an increase of 11.0 percent. Nondefense increased 9.1 percent, compared with
an increase of 11.1 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 0.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.2 percent.
The real change in private inventories subtracted 0.48 percentage point from the first-quarter
change in real GDP, after adding 0.28 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change. Private businesses
increased inventories $13.2 billion in the first quarter, following increases of $25.8 billion in the fourth
quarter and $18.8 billion in the third.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 2.4
percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent in the fourth.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 0.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in the
fourth.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
4.4 percent, or $115.4 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $10,704.2 billion. In the fourth quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 3.2 percent, or $82.6 billion.
Revisions
The preliminary estimate of the first-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.3 percentage point, or $6.9
billion, higher than the advance estimate issued last month. The upward revision to the percentage
change in real GDP primarily reflected upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures for
nondurable goods and to exports that were partly offset by a downward revision to equipment and
software and an upward revision to imports.
Advance Preliminary
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP.............................. 1.6 1.9
Current-dollar GDP.................... 4.2 4.4
Gross domestic purchases price index.. 3.6 3.6
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments) increased $7.9 billion in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter, profits
increased $25.1 billion. Current-production cash flow (net cash flow with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments) -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment --
decreased $11.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $14.0 billion in the fourth.
Domestic profits of financial corporations increased $11.0 billion in the first quarter, compared
with an increase of $0.3 billion in the fourth.
Domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $5.5 billion in the first quarter, compared
with an increase of $26.8 billion in the fourth. In the first quarter, both real gross corporate product and
profits per unit of real product increased. The increase in unit profits reflected an increase in the prices
corporations received and a decrease in their unit nonlabor costs that were partly offset by an increase in
their unit labor costs.
The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $8.5 billion in the first quarter, compared
with a decrease of $2.0 billion in the fourth. This measure is calculated as (1) receipts by U.S. residents
of earnings from their foreign affiliates plus dividends received by U.S. residents from unaffiliated
foreign corporations minus (2) payments by U.S. affiliates of earnings to their foreign parents plus
dividends paid by U.S. corporations to unaffiliated foreign residents. The first-quarter decrease was
accounted for by a larger increase in payments than in receipts.
Profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment is the best available measure of industry
profits because estimates of the capital consumption adjustment by industry do not exist. This measure
reflects the inventory-accounting and depreciation-accounting practices used for federal income tax
returns. According to this measure, both domestic profits of financial corporations and domestic profits
of nonfinancial corporations increased. The increase in profits of nonfinancial corporations reflected
increases in manufacturing, in "other" nonfinancial, and in transportation and public utilities that were
partly offset by a decrease in wholesale trade.
Profits before tax increased $24.6 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $26.4
billion in the fourth. The before-tax measure of profits does not reflect, as does profits from current
production, the capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. These adjustments convert
depreciation of fixed assets and inventory withdrawals reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to
the current-cost measures used in the national income and product accounts. The capital consumption
adjustment increased $3.3 billion in the first quarter (from $109.7 billion to $113.0 billion), in contrast
to a decrease of $7.9 billion in the fourth. The inventory valuation adjustment decreased $20.0 billion
(from -$8.5 billion to -$28.5 billion), in contrast to an increase of $6.6 billion.
Profits tax liability increased $12.7 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $7.7
billion in the fourth. Profits after tax increased $11.9 billion, compared with an increase of $18.7
billion. Dividends increased $7.3 billion, compared with an increase of $6.6 billion; undistributed
profits increased $4.6 billion, compared with an increase of $12.1 billion.
* * *
BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current
Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site:
<www.bea.gov>
Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the
following telephone numbers:
(202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product
(202) 606-5303 Personal income and outlays
(202) 606-5362 U.S. international transactions
Most of BEA's estimates and analyses are published in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's
monthly journal. Subscriptions and single copies of the printed Survey are for sale by the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: <bookstore.gpo.gov>;
phone: 202-512-1800; fax: 202-512-2250; mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001.
* * *
Next release -- June 26, 2003, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for:
Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2003 (Final)
Corporate Profits: First Quarter 2003 (Revised)
Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 II 99 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). 3.8 .3 2.4 2.0 5.2 7.1 2.6 4.8 .6 1.1 -.6 -1.6 -.3 2.7 5.0 1.3 4.0 1.4 1.9
Personal consumption expenditures... 4.4 2.5 3.1 5.7 4.6 5.0 5.3 3.0 3.8 2.1 2.4 1.4 1.5 6.0 3.1 1.8 4.2 1.7 2.0
Durable goods..................... 8.2 6.0 7.3 14.4 10.3 10.1 17.8 -3.7 8.1 -5.3 11.5 5.3 4.6 33.6 -6.3 2.0 22.8 -8.2 -1.8
Nondurable goods.................. 3.9 2.0 3.2 4.8 2.5 7.5 2.2 4.9 2.0 2.7 2.3 -.3 1.3 3.6 7.9 -.1 1.0 5.1 6.4
Services.......................... 3.8 2.0 2.2 4.4 4.5 2.8 4.4 3.6 3.9 3.3 .6 1.5 .9 2.1 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.2 .7
Gross private domestic investment... 6.2 -10.7 1.0 -4.7 11.0 13.7 2.3 17.3 -6.0 -3.4 -19.7 -17.6 -5.2 -17.3 18.2 7.9 3.6 6.3 -3.3
Fixed investment.................. 6.1 -3.8 -3.1 7.1 5.9 2.9 13.3 6.7 .2 -2.4 -2.2 -11.1 -4.3 -8.9 -.5 -1.0 -.3 4.4 -.2
Nonresidential.................. 7.8 -5.2 -5.7 7.9 7.7 3.0 15.0 10.2 3.5 -3.2 -5.4 -14.5 -6.0 -10.9 -5.8 -2.4 -.8 2.3 -4.8
Structures.................... 6.5 -1.7 -16.4 -5.1 -6.3 6.1 13.8 8.2 12.1 3.6 -3.1 -8.4 2.9 -30.1 -14.2 -17.6 -21.4 -9.9 .4
Equipment and software........ 8.2 -6.4 -1.7 12.5 12.5 2.1 15.5 10.9 .9 -5.4 -6.3 -16.7 -9.2 -2.5 -2.7 3.3 6.7 6.2 -6.3
Residential..................... 1.1 .3 3.9 4.9 .9 2.7 8.3 -3.0 -9.3 .0 8.2 -.5 .4 -3.5 14.2 2.7 1.1 9.4 11.0
Change in private inventories..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... 9.7 -5.4 -1.6 4.3 10.6 12.6 7.7 14.6 11.6 -4.0 -6.0 -12.4 -17.3 -9.6 3.5 14.3 4.6 -5.8 -1.4
Goods........................... 11.3 -5.9 -3.6 4.6 13.2 15.3 6.7 16.1 19.5 -7.1 -6.1 -16.1 -18.6 -7.9 -3.4 15.9 4.1 -11.5 .1
Services........................ 6.0 -4.0 3.2 3.4 4.7 6.4 10.2 11.2 -5.9 4.4 -6.0 -2.5 -13.9 -13.8 21.7 10.7 5.9 8.0 -4.6
Imports........................... 13.2 -2.9 3.7 15.4 14.5 9.4 14.7 18.6 13.8 -1.6 -7.9 -6.8 -11.8 -5.3 8.5 22.2 3.3 7.4 -7.1
Goods........................... 13.5 -3.3 3.9 17.1 15.4 9.8 13.7 20.3 13.6 -1.8 -9.2 -9.4 -9.6 -3.3 3.7 27.9 3.4 6.2 -7.3
Services........................ 11.6 -.5 2.1 6.8 9.7 7.1 20.6 9.6 15.1 -.5 .3 8.5 -23.2 -16.5 35.7 -2.1 3.1 13.0 -5.9
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 2.7 3.7 4.4 2.9 5.3 7.1 -1.2 4.6 -1.0 2.9 5.7 5.6 -1.1 10.5 5.6 1.4 2.9 4.6 .3
Federal........................... 1.3 4.8 7.5 2.6 7.4 9.9 -13.2 16.0 -7.2 2.0 9.5 6.0 1.2 13.5 7.4 7.5 4.3 11.0 .9
National defense................ -.1 5.0 9.3 -.2 14.0 10.0 -19.9 15.0 -6.1 4.7 8.3 2.7 4.6 14.3 11.6 7.8 6.9 11.0 -3.4
Nondefense...................... 3.6 4.5 4.3 7.9 -3.6 9.7 .3 17.9 -9.2 -2.6 11.8 12.0 -4.5 12.1 .4 6.9 -.3 11.1 9.1
State and local................... 3.5 3.1 2.8 3.0 4.2 5.6 5.6 -.8 2.4 3.3 3.8 5.4 -2.3 8.9 4.6 -1.7 2.2 1.2 -.1
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product... 3.7 1.5 1.8 4.1 4.3 5.2 4.4 3.1 1.7 1.3 2.8 -.4 -.2 4.2 2.4 -.1 3.4 1.1 2.4
Gross domestic purchases.......... 4.4 .4 3.0 3.3 5.8 6.8 3.6 5.7 1.2 1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -.1 2.9 5.6 2.6 3.9 2.9 .9
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 4.3 1.6 2.4 5.4 4.9 5.0 5.4 3.9 2.4 1.4 2.2 .0 .1 4.3 3.0 1.3 3.3 2.6 1.4
Gross national product (GNP)...... 3.7 .2 2.1 2.1 4.8 7.6 2.2 5.1 .2 1.6 -1.4 -.8 -1.1 3.7 3.7 .4 4.4 1.4 1.8
Disposable personal income........ 4.8 1.8 4.3 .8 1.5 4.8 8.4 4.8 4.3 1.8 -.1 -.6 10.5 -7.6 14.5 3.9 1.8 2.4 2.3
Current-dollar measures:
GDP............................. 5.9 2.6 3.6 3.5 6.5 8.9 5.7 7.3 2.2 3.2 3.0 .9 1.9 2.2 6.5 2.5 5.1 3.2 4.4
Final sales of domestic product. 5.9 3.9 3.0 5.7 5.6 7.0 7.6 5.5 3.4 3.4 6.6 2.1 2.0 3.6 3.7 1.2 4.5 2.9 5.0
Gross domestic purchases........ 7.0 2.4 4.2 5.5 7.8 9.1 7.4 8.0 3.4 3.4 2.1 .6 -.2 3.4 6.9 4.9 5.2 4.7 4.5
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 7.0 3.6 3.6 7.6 6.9 7.3 9.3 6.2 4.6 3.6 5.5 1.7 -.1 4.8 4.2 3.6 4.6 4.4 5.1
GNP............................. 5.9 2.6 3.3 3.7 6.1 9.4 5.3 7.5 1.9 3.7 2.2 1.7 1.1 3.2 5.1 1.6 5.5 3.3 4.4
Disposable personal income...... 7.4 3.8 5.7 3.1 3.7 7.3 12.2 7.2 6.4 4.0 3.2 1.2 10.4 -6.9 15.8 6.7 3.5 4.3 5.1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 2.--Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 II 99 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change at annual rate:
Gross domestic product.......... 3.8 .3 2.4 2.0 5.2 7.1 2.6 4.8 .6 1.1 -.6 -1.6 -.3 2.7 5.0 1.3 4.0 1.4 1.9
Percentage points at annual rates:
Personal consumption expenditures. 2.94 1.67 2.15 3.72 3.14 3.45 3.54 2.11 2.54 1.37 1.53 .92 .97 4.05 2.22 1.22 2.93 1.19 1.44
Durable goods................... .65 .48 .59 1.09 .81 .81 1.36 -.30 .63 -.44 .87 .42 .36 2.45 -.55 .16 1.74 -.72 -.15
Nondurable goods................ .77 .39 .64 .93 .51 1.48 .45 .99 .40 .52 .45 -.07 .25 .73 1.57 -.02 .22 1.01 1.27
Services........................ 1.51 .80 .92 1.70 1.81 1.16 1.73 1.43 1.51 1.29 .21 .57 .35 .87 1.20 1.08 .97 .90 .31
Gross private domestic investment. 1.08 -1.90 .15 -.86 1.85 2.32 .39 2.92 -1.09 -.55 -3.65 -3.09 -.81 -2.88 2.53 1.16 .55 .93 -.51
Fixed investment................ 1.03 -.65 -.50 1.18 1.01 .53 2.15 1.15 .04 -.41 -.38 -1.95 -.72 -1.49 -.07 -.15 -.03 .65 -.03
Nonresidential................ .98 -.66 -.68 .97 .97 .41 1.80 1.28 .46 -.41 -.71 -1.93 -.73 -1.33 -.66 -.27 -.08 .24 -.52
Structures.................. .20 -.05 -.52 -.17 -.20 .18 .40 .25 .37 .12 -.10 -.29 .10 -1.12 -.44 -.53 -.62 -.25 .01
Equipment and software...... .78 -.61 -.15 1.14 1.17 .22 1.41 1.03 .09 -.53 -.61 -1.64 -.83 -.21 -.22 .26 .53 .49 -.53
Residential................... .05 .01 .18 .21 .04 .12 .35 -.13 -.42 .00 .34 -.02 .02 -.16 .60 .12 .05 .41 .49
Change in private inventories... .06 -1.24 .65 -2.04 .84 1.80 -1.77 1.77 -1.12 -.14 -3.27 -1.14 -.09 -1.39 2.60 1.31 .58 .28 -.48
Net exports of goods and services. -.75 -.18 -.67 -1.41 -.75 .04 -1.17 -1.00 -.72 -.23 .53 -.42 -.24 -.28 -.75 -1.40 -.01 -1.59 .91
Exports......................... 1.04 -.59 -.17 .43 1.08 1.31 .82 1.53 1.25 -.46 -.69 -1.42 -1.94 -.99 .33 1.29 .45 -.59 -.13
Goods......................... .85 -.47 -.26 .33 .94 1.11 .51 1.18 1.44 -.60 -.49 -1.34 -1.49 -.56 -.23 .99 .28 -.82 .01
Services...................... .19 -.13 .09 .10 .14 .20 .31 .35 -.19 .14 -.20 -.08 -.45 -.42 .56 .30 .17 .23 -.14
Imports......................... -1.79 .42 -.50 -1.84 -1.83 -1.27 -1.99 -2.54 -1.97 .23 1.22 1.00 1.70 .70 -1.08 -2.69 -.47 -1.00 1.04
Goods......................... -1.54 .40 -.43 -1.72 -1.64 -1.12 -1.56 -2.32 -1.64 .22 1.21 1.18 1.17 .37 -.40 -2.74 -.40 -.71 .89
Services...................... -.24 .01 -.07 -.12 -.19 -.15 -.43 -.21 -.32 .01 .01 -.18 .53 .33 -.68 .05 -.07 -.30 .15
Government consumption
expenditures and gross investment .49 .65 .81 .50 .93 1.26 -.20 .83 -.18 .51 .99 1.00 -.21 1.85 1.04 .27 .56 .85 .05
Federal......................... .08 .29 .47 .15 .44 .60 -.85 .91 -.45 .12 .54 .36 .07 .80 .47 .47 .29 .70 .06
National defense.............. .00 .19 .37 -.01 .52 .39 -.86 .54 -.24 .17 .30 .10 .18 .54 .46 .32 .29 .46 -.15
Nondefense.................... .08 .10 .10 .16 -.08 .21 .01 .37 -.21 -.06 .24 .25 -.11 .26 .01 .16 -.01 .25 .21
State and local................. .41 .36 .34 .34 .49 .67 .65 -.08 .28 .39 .45 .64 -.28 1.05 .56 -.21 .27 .15 -.01
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1996) dollars
------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------------------
2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03r 2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03r 2002 IV 02 I 03r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP)... 10,446.2 10,313.1 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,588.8 10,704.2 9,439.9 9,363.2 9,392.4 9,485.6 9,518.2 9,562.9 225.4 32.6 44.7
Personal consumption expenditures. 7,303.7 7,174.2 7,254.7 7,360.7 7,425.4 7,513.1 6,576.0 6,513.8 6,542.4 6,609.9 6,637.9 6,671.6 198.8 28.0 33.7
Durable goods................... 871.9 859.0 856.9 897.8 873.9 861.7 999.9 975.9 980.7 1,032.4 1,010.6 1,006.0 68.0 -21.8 -4.6
Motor vehicles and parts...... 376.1 365.8 362.1 400.7 375.9 367.0 382.4 370.0 369.1 407.6 382.8 375.4 20.5 -24.8 -7.4
Furniture and household
equipment.................... 318.7 317.1 319.1 319.2 319.4 314.8 438.1 428.2 435.2 441.4 447.5 447.6 40.1 6.1 .1
Other......................... 177.1 176.1 175.8 177.9 178.6 179.9 185.8 184.2 184.1 187.0 188.1 191.5 10.5 1.1 3.4
Nondurable goods................ 2,115.0 2,085.1 2,108.2 2,116.9 2,150.0 2,208.3 1,929.5 1,921.4 1,920.9 1,925.8 1,950.0 1,980.3 59.7 24.2 30.3
Food.......................... 1,029.4 1,025.0 1,023.9 1,024.8 1,043.9 1,070.5 902.3 901.4 899.2 897.9 910.7 930.1 15.3 12.8 19.4
Clothing and shoes............ 324.3 325.8 323.9 321.0 326.6 325.4 357.0 355.8 355.1 355.3 361.8 365.1 19.3 6.5 3.3
Gasoline, fuel oil, and
other energy goods........... 173.5 156.2 174.7 178.2 184.7 211.3 157.5 157.2 156.5 157.5 158.9 159.3 6.3 1.4 .4
Gasoline and oil............ 158.5 142.3 160.7 163.5 167.4 191.5 145.1 145.1 144.7 145.4 145.1 146.3 6.3 -.3 1.2
Fuel oil and coal........... 15.0 13.9 14.0 14.7 17.3 19.8 12.7 12.4 12.1 12.4 14.0 13.3 .1 1.6 -.7
Other......................... 587.8 578.0 585.6 592.9 594.8 601.1 515.8 510.1 513.1 518.0 521.9 528.9 20.3 3.9 7.0
Services........................ 4,316.8 4,230.1 4,289.5 4,346.0 4,401.5 4,443.1 3,675.6 3,642.2 3,666.2 3,687.0 3,707.0 3,713.8 80.7 20.0 6.8
Housing....................... 1,071.5 1,051.7 1,066.0 1,078.0 1,090.1 1,102.0 880.1 874.0 878.5 882.1 885.8 890.0 14.1 3.7 4.2
Household operation........... 405.2 399.2 400.9 406.3 414.2 422.3 384.7 381.3 382.9 384.7 389.9 388.4 2.1 5.2 -1.5
Electricity and gas......... 148.2 143.9 144.9 147.4 156.5 162.1 136.4 133.5 133.6 135.7 142.8 140.7 1.9 7.1 -2.1
Other household operation... 257.0 255.4 256.1 258.9 257.7 260.2 248.4 248.0 249.5 249.1 247.0 247.7 .2 -2.1 .7
Transportation................ 275.8 273.3 275.6 276.1 278.3 278.0 250.3 250.9 250.3 249.8 250.1 250.1 -.8 .3 .0
Medical care.................. 1,148.5 1,119.0 1,139.3 1,158.8 1,176.9 1,189.7 978.6 963.4 974.7 984.4 992.0 1,001.3 40.3 7.6 9.3
Recreation.................... 285.1 279.0 283.8 285.9 291.8 292.3 237.5 235.6 237.1 237.1 240.3 238.6 4.3 3.2 -1.7
Other......................... 1,130.7 1,107.8 1,123.8 1,140.9 1,150.2 1,158.7 942.7 935.3 941.0 947.0 947.5 943.7 20.0 .5 -3.8
Gross private domestic investment. 1,593.2 1,559.4 1,588.0 1,597.3 1,628.1 1,622.3 1,589.6 1,554.0 1,583.9 1,598.0 1,622.4 1,609.0 15.0 24.4 -13.4
Fixed investment................ 1,589.3 1,589.4 1,584.6 1,579.7 1,603.6 1,613.0 1,577.3 1,576.4 1,572.6 1,571.6 1,588.5 1,587.7 -50.1 16.9 -.8
Nonresidential................ 1,117.4 1,126.8 1,115.8 1,109.8 1,117.1 1,105.1 1,183.4 1,188.4 1,181.1 1,178.7 1,185.3 1,170.8 -71.7 6.6 -14.5
Structures.................. 269.3 288.3 275.2 259.4 254.2 256.9 226.4 243.2 231.7 218.2 212.6 212.7 -44.5 -5.6 .1
Nonresidential buildings,
including farm........... 179.2 192.4 182.3 171.1 170.9 172.3 145.6 157.1 148.2 139.1 137.8 137.4 -33.1 -1.3 -.4
Utilities................. 53.1 56.3 53.9 51.5 50.6 50.2 47.3 50.8 48.4 45.6 44.6 43.9 -3.0 -1.0 -.7
Mining exploration,
shafts, and wells........ 30.6 32.3 31.7 31.0 27.3 29.3 29.2 30.2 30.3 29.9 26.5 28.4 -4.8 -3.4 1.9
Other structures.......... 6.4 7.3 7.3 5.8 5.4 5.1 5.5 6.3 6.3 5.0 4.6 4.4 -3.8 -.4 -.2
Equipment and software...... 848.1 838.5 840.7 850.4 863.0 848.3 971.1 953.7 961.4 977.2 992.1 976.0 -17.1 14.9 -16.1
Information processing
equipment and software... 399.7 388.7 397.1 406.9 406.3 411.5 563.1 540.4 557.0 575.2 579.7 590.1 14.6 4.5 10.4
Computers and
peripheral equipment... 74.2 71.9 72.8 76.8 75.4 76.2 283.7 262.1 271.6 297.6 303.2 318.5 43.8 5.6 15.3
Software................ 182.8 177.2 181.0 186.3 186.7 186.8 185.7 179.0 184.3 189.4 190.3 189.5 3.7 .9 -.8
Other................... 142.7 139.6 143.3 143.8 144.2 148.5 158.2 154.1 158.5 159.7 160.7 165.5 -5.7 1.0 4.8
Industrial equipment...... 152.2 153.4 150.5 153.3 151.5 150.4 146.9 148.3 145.6 147.9 145.9 144.4 -6.9 -2.0 -1.5
Transportation equipment.. 148.9 154.1 145.2 141.7 154.5 138.1 147.0 151.5 143.4 141.7 151.4 135.0 -16.6 9.7 -16.4
Other..................... 147.4 142.3 148.0 148.5 150.8 148.3 139.3 134.6 140.1 140.3 142.3 139.5 -1.4 2.0 -2.8
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See note at the end of the table.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period--Continued
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1996) dollars
------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------------------
2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03r 2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03r 2002 IV 02 I 03r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Residential................... 471.9 462.6 468.7 469.9 486.5 507.8 388.2 383.6 386.1 387.1 395.9 406.4 14.7 8.8 10.5
Structures.................. 462.4 453.0 459.2 460.4 476.9 498.2 378.5 373.9 376.4 377.4 386.1 396.4 14.5 8.7 10.3
Single family............. 247.0 241.1 244.3 245.3 257.4 273.5 200.5 197.2 198.4 199.8 206.5 214.8 7.9 6.7 8.3
Multifamily............... 33.6 34.2 34.2 33.4 32.4 36.5 26.3 27.0 26.8 26.2 25.1 27.6 1.9 -1.1 2.5
Other..................... 181.8 177.7 180.7 181.7 187.1 188.3 151.6 149.6 151.0 151.3 154.4 153.7 4.7 3.1 -.7
Equipment................... 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.9 .2 .1 .1
Change in private inventories... 3.9 -29.9 3.4 17.6 24.5 9.3 5.2 -28.9 4.9 18.8 25.8 13.2 66.6 7.0 -12.6
Farm.......................... .5 5.3 .4 -2.3 -1.5 .6 1.1 6.4 .8 -2.2 -.8 1.4 -.9 1.4 2.2
Construction, mining,
and utilities................ -.9 1.6 -1.1 -2.5 -1.7 -9.4 -.7 1.6 -1.0 -2.3 -1.1 -6.5 -7.1 1.2 -5.4
Manufacturing................. -11.3 -31.1 -14.2 -2.7 2.8 -4.2 -11.5 -31.9 -14.1 -2.6 2.8 -4.1 24.7 5.4 -6.9
Wholesale trade............... -3.7 -19.5 -9.0 7.1 6.6 -2.8 -3.4 -19.8 -8.7 7.9 7.0 -1.9 13.1 -.9 -8.9
Retail trade.................. 16.8 13.8 22.2 15.6 15.7 23.5 16.6 13.8 22.0 15.5 15.2 23.3 36.9 -.3 8.1
Other industries.............. 2.5 .0 5.1 2.3 2.5 1.5 2.5 .0 5.0 2.3 2.5 1.5 -.1 .2 -1.0
Net exports of goods and services. -423.6 -360.1 -425.6 -432.9 -476.0 -484.0 -488.5 -446.6 -487.4 -488.0 -532.2 -506.9 -72.6 -44.2 25.3
Exports......................... 1,014.9 977.5 1,018.1 1,038.6 1,025.4 1,031.7 1,058.8 1,030.6 1,065.5 1,077.7 1,061.6 1,057.9 -17.3 -16.1 -3.7
Goods......................... 703.6 679.8 709.4 722.6 702.6 708.6 756.9 738.1 765.8 773.5 750.3 750.5 -28.3 -23.2 .2
Foods, feeds, and beverages. 49.5 49.7 48.6 49.5 50.3 52.4 60.9 63.4 61.3 59.4 59.6 61.8 -1.4 .2 2.2
Industrial supplies and
materials.................. 153.7 144.9 155.6 156.3 158.0 165.5 162.8 158.5 165.8 163.1 163.9 165.9 .6 .8 2.0
Capital goods, except
automotive................. 291.3 284.4 294.1 301.7 285.0 281.7 324.8 316.0 327.7 336.8 318.6 315.5 -31.0 -18.2 -3.1
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts......... 78.5 73.8 80.4 82.5 77.4 78.7 76.1 71.7 78.1 79.9 74.7 75.8 2.7 -5.2 1.1
Consumer goods, except
automotive................. 84.5 82.2 84.2 86.0 85.6 86.4 84.6 82.3 84.5 86.0 85.6 86.3 -3.3 -.4 .7
Other....................... 46.0 44.8 46.4 46.7 46.1 43.9 47.3 46.6 47.9 47.7 47.0 44.3 2.8 -.7 -2.7
Services...................... 311.3 297.7 308.8 316.0 322.8 323.0 301.5 292.2 299.7 304.0 310.0 306.4 9.5 6.0 -3.6
Imports......................... 1,438.5 1,337.5 1,443.7 1,471.5 1,501.4 1,515.7 1,547.4 1,477.1 1,552.9 1,565.7 1,593.8 1,564.8 55.4 28.1 -29.0
Goods......................... 1,192.1 1,102.3 1,202.9 1,220.9 1,242.5 1,254.0 1,320.1 1,250.0 1,329.2 1,340.3 1,360.8 1,335.1 49.6 20.5 -25.7
Foods, feeds, and beverages. 49.8 47.5 49.4 50.4 52.0 54.5 54.6 53.2 54.6 55.0 55.7 57.5 2.9 .7 1.8
Industrial supplies and
materials, except
petroleum and products..... 160.2 149.5 159.0 163.5 168.7 175.1 166.7 160.8 165.1 169.1 171.9 166.6 5.8 2.8 -5.3
Petroleum and products...... 103.4 76.7 108.1 110.7 117.9 136.2 86.7 82.3 88.6 85.5 90.2 87.2 -2.5 4.7 -3.0
Capital goods, except
automotive................. 284.0 277.4 288.4 285.3 284.9 284.3 393.2 382.1 398.2 394.9 397.6 397.1 -6.8 2.7 -.5
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts......... 204.0 190.4 207.5 210.0 208.1 203.9 200.1 187.3 203.8 205.9 203.4 199.5 13.4 -2.5 -3.9
Consumer goods, except
automotive................. 307.6 285.4 307.2 315.0 322.9 325.3 326.6 302.4 326.4 334.4 343.2 346.2 27.7 8.8 3.0
Other....................... 83.2 75.4 83.2 86.0 88.0 74.7 83.8 76.4 84.0 86.6 88.1 73.8 4.0 1.5 -14.3
Services...................... 246.4 235.2 240.8 250.6 258.9 261.7 227.2 225.5 224.3 226.0 233.0 229.5 4.8 7.0 -3.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See note at the end of the table.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period--Continued
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1996) dollars
------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------------------
2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03r 2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03r 2002 IV 02 I 03r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Government consumption
expenditures and
gross investment................. 1,972.9 1,939.5 1,959.8 1,981.1 2,011.3 2,052.8 1,712.8 1,697.3 1,703.3 1,715.6 1,735.0 1,736.2 72.4 19.4 1.2
Federal......................... 693.7 672.0 688.2 697.7 716.9 736.1 613.3 597.8 608.7 615.1 631.4 632.8 42.7 16.3 1.4
National defense.............. 447.4 431.7 442.1 451.2 464.7 471.2 400.0 388.5 395.8 402.5 413.2 409.6 34.0 10.7 -3.6
Consumption expenditures.... 386.6 372.1 382.5 388.9 403.2 408.8 337.0 326.7 333.9 338.0 349.4 345.4 28.1 11.4 -4.0
Gross investment............ 60.8 59.7 59.6 62.4 61.5 62.4 63.3 62.2 62.2 65.0 63.9 64.6 6.0 -1.1 .7
Nondefense.................... 246.3 240.3 246.1 246.5 252.2 264.9 213.3 209.3 212.9 212.7 218.3 223.2 8.9 5.6 4.9
Consumption expenditures.... 199.9 194.2 198.6 200.9 205.8 218.3 167.8 164.3 166.5 167.9 172.5 177.3 6.7 4.6 4.8
Gross investment............ 46.4 46.1 47.5 45.5 46.5 46.6 45.9 45.4 47.0 45.1 46.0 45.9 2.3 .9 -.1
State and local................. 1,279.2 1,267.5 1,271.6 1,283.3 1,294.4 1,316.7 1,099.7 1,099.3 1,094.7 1,100.6 1,104.0 1,103.8 30.3 3.4 -.2
Consumption expenditures.... 1,034.5 1,017.7 1,030.6 1,039.6 1,050.1 1,072.8 881.1 875.9 879.4 883.0 886.3 888.2 24.3 3.3 1.9
Gross investment............ 244.7 249.7 241.1 243.8 244.2 243.9 218.6 223.7 215.3 217.6 217.7 215.5 5.8 .1 -2.2
Residual.......................... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... -87.2 -71.2 -75.8 -102.5 -100.0 -109.1 -44.3 2.5 -9.1
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product. 10,442.4 10,343.0 10,373.5 10,488.7 10,564.3 10,694.9 9,424.4 9,379.4 9,377.9 9,457.2 9,483.1 9,539.1 166.0 25.9 56.0
Gross domestic purchases........ 10,869.9 10,673.1 10,802.4 10,939.1 11,064.8 11,188.2 9,889.8 9,778.2 9,840.8 9,934.7 10,005.5 10,028.7 289.1 70.8 23.2
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 10,866.0 10,703.1 10,799.0 10,921.5 11,040.3 11,178.9 9,874.1 9,794.4 9,826.0 9,906.1 9,970.1 10,004.6 229.2 64.0 34.5
Gross domestic product.......... 10,446.2 10,313.1 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,588.8 10,704.2 9,439.9 9,363.2 9,392.4 9,485.6 9,518.2 9,562.9 225.4 32.6 44.7
Plus: Income receipts from
the rest of the world.......... 278.0 264.7 276.0 287.3 284.2 279.5 253.3 242.8 251.8 261.3 257.5 250.9 -38.7 -3.8 -6.6
Less: Income payments to
the rest of the world.......... 287.6 262.8 296.1 298.2 293.4 290.4 260.3 239.2 268.2 269.5 264.2 259.3 -8.9 -5.3 -4.9
Equals: Gross national product.. 10,436.7 10,314.9 10,356.8 10,495.3 10,579.7 10,693.3 9,433.5 9,367.5 9,376.7 9,477.9 9,512.1 9,555.1 196.2 34.2 43.0
Net domestic product............ 9,052.8 8,949.6 8,987.0 9,101.0 9,173.4 9,279.9 8,055.8 8,017.7 8,017.0 8,085.5 8,103.0 8,134.2 150.4 17.5 31.2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
Note.--Users are cautioned that particularly for components that
exhibit rapid change in prices relative to other prices in the
economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure
the component's relative importance or its contribution to the
growth rate of more aggregate series. For accurate estimates of
the contributions to percent changes in real GDP, use table 2.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 4.--Chain-Type Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 II 99 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.5
Personal consumption expenditures... 2.5 2.0 1.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 3.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 3.3 1.8 -.1 .8 1.1 2.7 1.7 1.8 2.7
Durable goods..................... -1.7 -1.9 -2.8 -1.9 -1.7 -2.0 -2.0 -.8 -2.2 -1.2 -1.2 -3.4 -2.7 -1.5 -4.2 -2.9 -1.9 -2.2 -3.7
Nondurable goods.................. 3.8 1.5 .4 4.6 3.4 3.7 5.3 3.0 2.8 1.8 1.8 2.9 -1.4 -3.5 .2 4.6 .6 1.2 4.6
Services.......................... 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.6 2.5 2.6 3.2 5.1 2.3 1.1 3.5 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1
Gross private domestic investment... 1.0 1.2 -.5 -.1 -.5 .5 2.1 1.2 1.7 1.2 2.0 1.1 -.4 -.2 -1.5 -.4 -1.1 1.7 2.0
Fixed investment.................. 1.1 1.2 -.4 .0 -.4 .5 2.3 1.3 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.2 -.2 -.1 -1.5 -.2 -.9 1.8 2.5
Nonresidential.................. .1 .2 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -.5 .7 .4 1.3 .5 .4 .1 -1.1 -1.6 -2.0 -1.4 -1.3 .4 .6
Structures.................... 4.0 5.0 -.7 1.8 2.2 3.2 5.3 4.0 4.6 5.3 10.5 4.2 -.3 -1.6 -3.6 .7 .4 2.3 4.0
Equipment and software........ -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 -2.5 -2.8 -1.6 -.7 -.8 .2 -1.1 -2.9 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.5 -2.1 -1.9 -.2 -.3
Residential..................... 4.4 4.1 2.1 4.5 3.3 3.2 7.0 3.9 3.1 3.7 5.6 4.5 2.5 3.7 .0 2.6 .0 5.0 6.9
Change in private inventories..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... 1.4 -.8 -.2 .4 .7 1.7 2.0 2.0 .8 .1 -.8 -1.7 -1.9 -3.8 -.8 3.0 3.5 .9 3.9
Goods........................... 1.2 -.7 -.5 -.3 .7 2.2 1.3 1.6 .4 .4 -.2 -1.5 -2.4 -3.7 -1.1 2.3 3.4 .9 3.4
Services........................ 2.1 -1.0 .3 2.1 .8 .5 3.9 3.0 2.0 -.4 -2.3 -2.1 -.6 -4.2 .0 4.6 3.7 .8 5.0
Imports........................... 4.5 -2.9 .3 4.9 5.8 5.5 6.6 1.1 4.6 .9 -2.5 -5.9 -17.0 4.7 -1.6 11.1 4.4 .9 11.8
Goods........................... 4.8 -2.9 -1.7 5.2 6.3 6.3 6.8 1.2 4.5 .8 -3.7 -6.4 -6.6 -11.1 -2.1 10.9 2.7 .9 12.0
Services........................ 3.3 -2.9 11.8 3.7 3.7 1.7 5.9 .7 4.8 1.1 3.8 -3.2 -57.7 167.5 1.1 12.2 13.6 .9 11.0
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 3.9 2.4 1.7 3.6 3.2 3.1 6.4 3.0 2.9 2.7 4.2 1.8 -.3 -.3 3.6 2.8 1.4 1.6 8.2
Federal........................... 3.0 1.7 2.7 1.8 2.1 1.6 8.1 .7 1.6 .1 4.6 1.5 .5 -.4 8.4 2.3 1.3 .3 10.2
National defense................ 3.0 1.6 2.4 1.5 2.0 1.9 7.5 .7 2.0 .6 4.0 1.1 .6 -1.1 7.3 2.0 1.5 1.2 9.5
Nondefense...................... 3.1 1.9 3.4 2.5 2.3 .9 9.3 .6 .9 -.7 5.6 2.2 .4 .7 10.4 2.9 1.0 -1.2 11.4
State and local................... 4.3 2.7 1.1 4.5 3.7 3.9 5.5 4.2 3.6 4.0 4.1 1.9 -.8 -.3 1.1 3.1 1.5 2.2 7.1
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product... 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.7 3.1 2.4 1.7 2.1 3.6 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.8 2.6
Gross domestic purchases.......... 2.5 1.9 1.2 2.1 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.3 1.7 -.2 .4 1.2 2.3 1.2 1.8 3.6
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 2.5 1.9 1.2 2.1 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.2 1.7 -.1 .5 1.1 2.3 1.3 1.8 3.7
Gross national product (GNP)...... 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.5
Implicit price deflators:
GDP............................. 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.5
Gross domestic purchases........ 2.5 1.9 1.2 2.1 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.2 1.7 -.1 .4 1.2 2.3 1.2 1.7 3.6
GNP............................. 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.7 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 5.--Quantity and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product
[Index numbers, 1996=100]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted
---------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03r
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product:
Chain-type quantity index........ 117.64 117.94 120.82 119.84 120.21 121.41 121.82 122.39
Chain-type price index........... 106.89 109.42 110.66 110.14 110.48 110.76 111.25 111.94
Implicit price deflator.......... 106.89 109.42 110.66 110.14 110.48 110.76 111.25 111.93
Personal consumption expenditures:
Chain-type quantity index................ 118.83 121.76 125.56 124.37 124.92 126.20 126.74 127.38
Chain-type price index................... 107.39 109.56 111.06 110.14 110.89 111.36 111.87 112.62
Durable goods:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 142.58 151.16 162.19 158.30 159.08 167.47 163.92 163.18
Chain-type price index................. 91.46 89.70 87.19 88.00 87.36 86.94 86.46 85.64
Nondurable goods:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 116.50 118.79 122.58 122.07 122.03 122.35 123.88 125.81
Chain-type price index................. 107.59 109.17 109.61 108.52 109.75 109.92 110.25 111.51
Services:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 115.67 117.98 120.63 119.54 120.32 121.01 121.66 121.88
Chain-type price index................. 110.85 114.32 117.44 116.15 117.00 117.88 118.74 119.64
Private fixed investment:
Chain-type quantity index................ 139.52 134.20 130.06 129.99 129.68 129.60 130.99 130.93
Chain-type price index................... 100.00 101.16 100.76 100.82 100.76 100.52 100.95 101.59
Nonresidential:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 147.23 139.55 131.57 132.13 131.32 131.05 131.79 130.17
Chain-type price index................. 95.59 95.73 94.43 94.82 94.48 94.17 94.25 94.40
Residential:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 118.88 119.22 123.92 122.44 123.25 123.59 126.39 129.73
Chain-type price index................. 114.40 119.09 121.57 120.61 121.40 121.38 122.88 124.96
Exports of goods and services:
Chain-type quantity index................ 130.09 123.10 121.13 117.89 121.89 123.28 121.44 121.02
Chain-type price index................... 96.83 96.10 95.87 94.88 95.58 96.41 96.62 97.55
Imports of goods and services:
Chain-type quantity index................ 159.48 154.91 160.66 153.37 161.24 162.56 165.48 162.47
Chain-type price index................... 95.49 92.70 92.99 90.61 93.03 94.05 94.27 96.93
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment:
Chain-type quantity index................ 111.29 115.36 120.46 119.37 119.79 120.65 122.02 122.10
Chain-type price index................... 110.65 113.27 115.18 114.27 115.06 115.47 115.92 118.23
Federal:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 102.42 107.33 115.37 112.46 114.50 115.71 118.79 119.04
Chain-type price index................. 108.23 110.09 113.11 112.42 113.07 113.44 113.53 116.32
State and local:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 116.52 120.11 123.51 123.47 122.95 123.62 123.99 123.97
Chain-type price index................. 111.98 115.01 116.33 115.29 116.17 116.60 117.24 119.29
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 117.19 118.95 121.09 120.51 120.49 121.51 121.84 122.56
Chain-type price index................. 107.02 109.55 110.80 110.28 110.62 110.91 111.40 112.12
Implicit price deflator................ 107.02 109.55 110.80 110.27 110.62 110.91 111.40 112.12
Gross domestic purchases:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 121.00 121.50 125.15 123.74 124.53 125.72 126.62 126.91
Chain-type price index................. 106.58 108.65 109.90 109.15 109.77 110.11 110.59 111.57
Implicit price deflator................ 106.58 108.65 109.91 109.15 109.77 110.11 110.59 111.56
Final sales to domestic purchasers:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 120.56 122.52 125.43 124.42 124.82 125.84 126.65 127.09
Chain-type price index................. 106.70 108.78 110.04 109.28 109.90 110.25 110.73 111.74
Implicit price deflator................ 106.70 108.78 110.04 109.28 109.90 110.25 110.73 111.74
Gross national product:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 117.69 117.96 120.46 119.62 119.73 121.03 121.46 122.01
Chain-type price index................. 106.86 109.39 110.63 110.11 110.45 110.73 111.22 111.92
Implicit price deflator................ 106.86 109.38 110.63 110.11 110.45 110.73 111.22 111.91
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 6.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective
[Percent change from preceding year]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 3.4 4.2 3.5 1.8 -.5 3.0 2.7 4.0 2.7 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.8 .3 2.4
Personal consumption expenditures...... 3.3 4.0 2.7 1.8 -.2 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.0 3.2 3.6 4.8 4.9 4.4 2.5 3.1
Durable goods........................ 1.7 5.8 2.1 -.9 -6.6 5.3 8.2 7.6 4.6 5.6 6.6 10.5 11.8 8.2 6.0 7.3
Nondurable goods..................... 2.4 3.2 2.7 1.4 -.4 1.9 2.9 3.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 4.1 4.7 3.9 2.0 3.2
Services............................. 4.3 4.1 2.8 2.8 1.4 2.9 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.3 4.0 3.7 3.8 2.0 2.2
Gross private domestic investment...... 2.5 2.7 3.7 -3.1 -8.6 8.5 8.7 13.2 3.0 9.0 12.1 11.8 6.6 6.2 -10.7 1.0
Fixed investment..................... .0 3.6 2.7 -1.8 -6.9 6.5 8.1 9.1 6.0 9.3 9.6 11.4 7.8 6.1 -3.8 -3.1
Nonresidential..................... -.1 5.4 5.5 .7 -4.9 3.4 8.4 8.9 9.8 10.0 12.2 12.5 8.1 7.8 -5.2 -5.7
Structures....................... -3.6 1.3 2.5 1.5 -11.0 -6.1 .8 .8 4.8 7.1 9.1 6.8 -1.3 6.5 -1.7 -16.4
Equipment and software........... 1.7 7.5 7.0 .4 -2.0 7.4 11.3 11.9 11.5 11.0 13.3 14.6 11.5 8.2 -6.4 -1.7
Residential........................ .2 -.5 -4.1 -8.6 -12.8 16.3 7.3 9.7 -3.6 7.4 2.0 8.0 6.7 1.1 .3 3.9
Change in private inventories........ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. 11.2 16.1 11.8 8.7 6.5 6.2 3.3 8.9 10.3 8.2 12.3 2.1 3.4 9.7 -5.4 -1.6
Goods.............................. 11.1 18.8 12.6 8.2 7.1 6.8 3.0 9.7 11.9 8.7 14.5 2.1 3.8 11.3 -5.9 -3.6
Services........................... 11.6 9.3 9.6 10.0 5.1 4.6 4.1 7.2 6.4 6.8 7.0 2.3 2.5 6.0 -4.0 3.2
Imports.............................. 6.1 3.8 3.9 3.8 -.5 6.6 9.1 12.0 8.2 8.6 13.7 11.8 10.9 13.2 -2.9 3.7
Goods.............................. 4.6 4.1 4.2 3.0 -.1 9.3 10.1 13.3 9.0 9.4 14.2 11.7 12.2 13.5 -3.3 3.9
Services........................... 12.6 2.7 2.8 7.6 -2.3 -4.0 4.7 5.8 4.1 4.8 10.9 11.9 4.2 11.6 -.5 2.1
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. 3.0 1.2 2.8 3.3 1.2 .5 -.8 .1 .5 1.1 2.4 1.9 3.9 2.7 3.7 4.4
Federal.............................. 3.7 -1.8 1.3 2.0 -.3 -1.6 -3.9 -3.6 -2.7 -.9 -.4 -.8 2.3 1.3 4.8 7.5
National defense................... 4.7 -.8 -.8 .0 -1.1 -4.9 -5.4 -4.8 -3.7 -1.3 -2.6 -1.8 2.1 -.1 5.0 9.3
Nondefense......................... .5 -5.2 8.4 8.3 1.8 7.1 -.3 -1.0 -.5 .0 4.2 1.1 2.7 3.6 4.5 4.3
State and local...................... 2.3 3.7 3.9 4.2 2.3 2.0 1.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 4.0 3.4 4.7 3.5 3.1 2.8
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product...... 3.0 4.3 3.3 2.0 -.2 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.3 3.7 1.5 1.8
Gross domestic purchases............. 3.1 3.2 2.9 1.4 -1.1 3.1 3.3 4.4 2.5 3.7 4.7 5.4 5.0 4.4 .4 3.0
Final sales to domestic purchasers... 2.7 3.4 2.7 1.6 -.9 2.8 3.2 3.8 3.0 3.7 4.3 5.3 5.2 4.3 1.6 2.4
Gross national product............... 3.3 4.2 3.5 1.9 -.5 3.0 2.6 3.9 2.7 3.5 4.3 4.2 4.4 3.7 .2 2.1
Real disposable personal income...... 2.1 4.4 2.6 2.2 .4 3.1 1.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.1 5.4 2.6 4.8 1.8 4.3
Gross domestic purchases price
index............................... 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.1 3.4 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.6 .8 1.5 2.5 1.9 1.2
GDP price index...................... 3.0 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.4 1.1
Personal consumption expenditures
price index......................... 3.8 3.9 4.4 4.6 3.8 3.1 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.5 2.0 1.4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 7.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
II 99 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03r
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.9 3.7 2.3 1.5 -.1 -.4 .1 1.4 2.2 3.3 2.9 2.1
Personal consumption expenditures...... 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.5 4.3 3.5 2.8 2.4 1.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.8 2.7 2.4
Durable goods........................ 11.7 13.3 10.0 13.1 8.4 7.8 3.8 2.4 4.7 3.8 13.2 8.4 7.5 11.9 1.9 3.1
Nondurable goods..................... 4.5 4.4 4.9 4.2 4.3 4.1 3.0 3.0 1.7 1.5 1.7 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.1
Services............................. 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.8 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.0
Gross private domestic investment...... 6.8 6.6 6.6 5.3 11.0 6.4 2.2 -3.8 -11.9 -11.7 -15.1 -6.5 .0 2.3 8.9 3.5
Fixed investment..................... 7.9 8.4 5.9 7.3 7.1 5.7 4.3 .5 -4.0 -5.1 -6.7 -6.3 -3.7 -2.7 .6 .7
Nonresidential..................... 7.8 9.4 6.6 8.3 8.9 7.8 6.2 1.1 -5.1 -7.4 -9.3 -9.4 -6.3 -5.1 -1.7 -1.5
Structures....................... -2.2 -3.1 -2.5 1.8 5.2 10.0 9.3 5.0 .8 -1.4 -10.6 -13.3 -15.6 -21.1 -15.9 -12.5
Equipment and software........... 11.3 13.8 9.7 10.5 10.1 7.2 5.2 -.2 -7.1 -9.5 -8.8 -8.0 -2.9 1.1 3.3 2.3
Residential........................ 8.2 5.6 4.0 4.1 2.1 -.6 -1.2 -1.2 -.6 2.0 1.0 2.4 3.2 3.4 6.7 6.0
Change in private inventories........ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. 2.5 5.7 4.9 8.8 11.4 11.6 7.3 3.7 -3.1 -10.1 -11.4 -9.3 -3.0 2.8 3.9 2.6
Goods.............................. 3.2 6.4 5.6 9.9 12.8 14.3 8.3 4.9 -3.3 -12.1 -12.3 -11.7 -4.3 1.8 .8 1.7
Services........................... .8 4.2 3.2 6.1 8.1 5.3 4.8 .7 -2.6 -4.7 -9.2 -3.1 .0 5.3 11.4 4.9
Imports.............................. 10.0 12.6 11.9 13.5 14.3 14.1 11.1 5.2 -1.0 -7.1 -8.0 -4.1 2.6 6.7 10.1 5.9
Goods.............................. 11.3 14.3 13.0 13.9 14.7 14.3 11.1 5.1 -2.1 -7.5 -7.9 -4.8 3.8 7.3 9.9 6.8
Services........................... 3.5 4.1 5.9 10.9 11.6 13.0 10.9 5.9 5.7 -4.5 -8.6 -1.4 -3.9 3.4 11.5 1.8
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. 3.0 3.8 4.5 3.5 3.9 2.3 1.3 3.0 3.3 3.2 5.1 5.0 4.0 5.0 3.6 2.3
Federal.............................. .1 2.9 4.0 1.2 4.4 .7 -1.2 4.7 2.4 4.6 7.5 6.9 7.3 8.1 7.5 5.9
National defense................... -.3 1.7 4.4 .0 3.7 -1.3 -2.5 5.2 2.2 5.1 7.4 8.2 9.5 10.1 9.3 5.4
Nondefense......................... .8 5.2 3.4 3.4 5.7 4.2 1.1 3.9 2.6 3.9 7.6 4.7 3.5 4.7 4.4 6.6
State and local...................... 4.5 4.3 4.8 4.6 3.6 3.2 2.6 2.2 3.7 2.5 3.9 4.1 2.3 3.4 1.6 .4
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product...... 4.1 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.2 3.6 2.6 2.2 1.4 .9 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.5 1.7 1.7
Gross domestic purchases............. 4.8 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.5 4.3 2.9 1.7 .1 -.3 .1 1.8 2.8 3.7 3.7 2.6
Final sales to domestic purchasers... 5.0 5.4 5.1 5.2 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.5 1.5 .9 1.6 1.8 2.2 3.0 2.5 2.1
Gross national product............... 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.2 4.9 3.7 2.2 1.3 -.1 -.4 .1 1.4 1.7 3.0 2.5 2.0
Real disposable personal income...... 2.4 1.9 2.4 3.8 4.9 5.6 4.8 2.7 1.3 2.8 .3 3.8 5.0 2.8 5.5 2.6
Gross domestic purchases price
index............................... 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.7 1.3 .8 .9 1.3 1.6 2.2
GDP price index...................... 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.4 1.1 .8 1.3 1.6
Personal consumption expenditures
price index......................... 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 1.8 1.5 .9 1.1 1.6 1.8 2.3
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
Table 8.--Relation of Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and National Income
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03r
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product..................... 9,824.6 10,082.2 10,446.2 10,313.1 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,588.8 10,704.2
Plus: Income receipts from
the rest of the world..................... 383.4 316.9 278.0 264.7 276.0 287.3 284.2 279.5
Less: Income payments to
the rest of the world..................... 360.0 295.0 287.6 262.8 296.1 298.2 293.4 290.4
Equals: Gross national product............. 9,848.0 10,104.1 10,436.7 10,314.9 10,356.8 10,495.3 10,579.7 10,693.3
Less: Consumption of fixed capital......... 1,228.9 1,329.3 1,393.5 1,363.5 1,389.8 1,405.3 1,415.4 1,424.3
Less: Indirect business tax and
nontax liability.......................... 753.6 774.8 800.4 786.2 795.1 806.9 813.3 821.0
Less: Business transfer payments........... 43.7 42.5 44.1 43.8 43.9 44.4 44.3 44.6
Less: Statistical discrepancy.............. -128.5 -117.3 -116.7 -110.0 -165.0 -82.1 -109.6 -100.8
Plus: Subsidies less current
surplus of government enterprises......... 34.1 47.3 32.5 37.0 35.1 29.1 29.0 28.2
Equals: National income.................... 7,984.4 8,122.0 8,347.9 8,268.5 8,328.0 8,349.9 8,445.3 8,532.4
Compensation of employees................ 5,723.4 5,874.9 5,977.4 5,908.4 5,963.9 5,988.4 6,048.8 6,118.1
Wage and salary accruals............... 4,836.3 4,950.6 5,003.7 4,957.8 4,997.3 5,007.4 5,052.4 5,105.3
Supplements to wages and salaries...... 887.1 924.3 973.7 950.7 966.6 981.0 996.4 1,012.8
Proprietors' income with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 714.8 727.9 756.5 748.4 747.5 758.7 771.6 785.8
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment.......... 146.6 137.9 142.4 141.3 153.5 144.1 130.6 127.6
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 788.1 731.6 787.4 797.6 785.0 771.0 796.1 804.0
Net interest............................. 611.5 649.8 684.2 672.8 678.1 687.6 698.3 696.9
Addendum:
Gross domestic income.................... 9,953.1 10,199.4 10,562.9 10,423.1 10,541.8 10,588.3 10,698.4 10,805.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
Table 9.--Personal Income and Its Disposition
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03r
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income\1\......................... 8,406.6 8,685.3 8,929.1 8,803.4 8,914.0 8,958.9 9,039.9 9,127.7
Wage and salary disbursements............ 4,836.3 4,950.6 5,003.7 4,957.8 4,997.3 5,007.4 5,052.4 5,103.9
Other labor income....................... 544.2 570.4 610.6 590.8 604.1 617.5 630.2 639.1
Proprietors' income with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments................. 714.8 727.9 756.5 748.4 747.5 758.7 771.6 785.8
Farm................................... 22.6 19.0 12.9 21.7 7.5 10.7 11.7 15.1
Nonfarm................................ 692.2 708.8 743.7 726.7 740.0 748.0 759.9 770.7
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment.......... 146.6 137.9 142.4 141.3 153.5 144.1 130.6 127.6
Personal dividend income................. 375.7 409.2 433.8 423.7 430.3 437.3 443.8 451.2
Personal interest income................. 1,077.0 1,091.3 1,078.5 1,069.9 1,082.3 1,080.7 1,080.9 1,074.5
Transfer payments to persons............. 1,070.3 1,170.4 1,288.0 1,252.0 1,282.6 1,298.4 1,319.1 1,340.8
Less: Personal contributions for
social insurance........................ 358.4 372.3 384.5 380.5 383.6 385.3 388.7 395.2
Less: Personal tax and nontax payments..... 1,286.4 1,292.1 1,113.6 1,136.8 1,121.8 1,099.0 1,096.8 1,085.5
Equals: Disposable personal income......... 7,120.2 7,393.2 7,815.5 7,666.7 7,792.2 7,859.9 7,943.2 8,042.3
Less: Personal outlays..................... 6,918.6 7,223.5 7,524.5 7,396.3 7,477.9 7,583.0 7,640.7 7,732.2
Equals: Personal saving.................... 201.5 169.7 291.0 270.4 314.3 276.9 302.5 310.1
Addenda:
Disposable personal income,
billions of chained (1996) dollars\2\... 6,630.3 6,748.0 7,036.8 6,961.0 7,027.2 7,058.1 7,100.8 7,141.4
Personal saving as a percentage of
disposable personal income.............. 2.8 2.3 3.7 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.8 3.9
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
1. Personal income is also equal to national income less corporate
profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,
net interest, contributions for social insurance, and wage accruals
less disbursements, plus personal interest income, personal dividend
income, government transfer payments to persons, and business
transfer payments to persons.
2. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price
deflator for personal consumption expenditures.
Table 10.--Corporate Profits: Level and Percent Change
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of dollars Percent change from preceding period
---------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Quarterly Quarter one
at annual rates rates year ago
--------------------------------------- ------------------------------- -------
2000 2001 2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 2001 2002 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 I 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments......................... 788.1 731.6 787.4 797.6 785.0 771.0 796.1 804.0 -7.2 7.6 -1.6 -1.8 3.2 1.0 .8
Profits before tax................. 782.3 670.2 665.2 639.4 657.9 668.5 694.9 719.5 -14.3 -.7 2.9 1.6 3.9 3.5 12.5
Profits tax liability............ 259.4 199.3 213.3 202.4 213.7 214.7 222.4 235.1 -23.2 7.0 5.6 .5 3.6 5.7 16.1
Profits after tax................ 522.9 470.9 451.9 437.0 444.3 453.8 472.5 484.4 -10.0 -4.0 1.7 2.1 4.1 2.5 10.9
Dividends...................... 376.1 409.6 434.3 424.2 430.8 437.7 444.3 451.6 8.9 6.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 6.5
Undistributed profits.......... 146.8 61.2 17.6 12.8 13.5 16.1 28.2 32.8 -58.3 -71.2 4.9 19.4 75.4 16.4 155.8
Inventory valuation adjustment..... -15.0 5.0 -6.9 1.9 -5.7 -15.1 -8.5 -28.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Capital consumption adjustment..... 20.8 56.5 129.1 156.3 132.8 117.6 109.7 113.0 172.1 128.5 -15.0 -11.4 -6.7 3.0 -27.7
Addenda:
Corporate profits after tax with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments........... 528.7 532.3 574.1 595.2 571.3 556.3 573.7 568.9 .7 7.9 -4.0 -2.6 3.1 -.8 -4.4
Net cash flow with inventory
valuation and capital
consumption adjustments........... 873.7 911.8 967.3 979.3 966.7 954.7 968.7 957.3 4.4 6.1 -1.3 -1.2 1.5 -1.2 -2.2
Undistributed profits with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments......... 152.6 122.7 139.9 171.0 140.5 118.6 129.4 117.3 -19.6 14.0 -17.8 -15.6 9.1 -9.3 -31.4
Consumption of fixed capital..... 721.1 789.1 827.5 808.3 826.1 836.1 839.3 840.0 9.4 4.9 2.2 1.2 .4 .1 3.9
Less: Inventory valuation
adjustment........................ -15.0 5.0 -6.9 1.9 -5.7 -15.1 -8.5 -28.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Equals: Net cash flow.............. 888.7 906.8 974.2 977.4 972.4 969.8 977.2 985.7 2.0 7.4 -.5 -.3 .8 .9 .9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 11.--Corporate Profits by Industry: Level and Change From Preceding Period
[Billions of dollars]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Level Change from preceding period
---------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
--------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 2001 2002 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj..... 788.1 731.6 787.4 797.6 785.0 771.0 796.1 804.0 -56.5 55.8 -12.6 -14.0 25.1 7.9
Domestic industries.......................... 644.8 580.9 668.1 665.6 669.9 654.9 682.0 698.4 -63.9 87.2 4.3 -15.0 27.1 16.4
Financial.................................. 183.0 173.5 209.7 213.2 210.7 207.3 207.6 218.6 -9.5 36.2 -2.5 -3.4 .3 11.0
Nonfinancial............................... 461.8 407.4 458.4 452.4 459.3 447.6 474.4 479.9 -54.4 51.0 6.9 -11.7 26.8 5.5
Rest of the world............................ 143.3 150.8 119.3 132.0 115.1 116.1 114.1 105.6 7.5 -31.5 -16.9 1.0 -2.0 -8.5
Receipts from the rest of the world........ 203.8 172.4 177.0 161.4 173.4 185.9 187.3 190.7 -31.4 4.6 12.0 12.5 1.4 3.4
Less: Payments to the rest of the world.... 60.5 21.6 57.7 29.4 58.3 69.7 73.3 85.1 -38.9 36.1 28.9 11.4 3.6 11.8
Corporate profits with IVA............... 767.3 675.1 658.3 641.3 652.2 653.4 686.4 691.1 -92.2 -16.8 10.9 1.2 33.0 4.7
Domestic industries.......................... 624.0 524.4 539.0 509.3 537.1 537.3 572.3 585.5 -99.6 14.6 27.8 .2 35.0 13.2
Financial.................................. 201.0 190.6 217.3 218.2 218.5 216.1 216.5 226.0 -10.4 26.7 .3 -2.4 .4 9.5
Federal Reserve banks.................... 30.0 27.9 22.8 23.4 23.9 22.9 21.2 20.9 -2.1 -5.1 .5 -1.0 -1.7 -.3
Other.................................... 171.0 162.8 194.5 194.8 194.6 193.2 195.2 205.1 -8.2 31.7 -.2 -1.4 2.0 9.9
Nonfinancial............................... 423.0 333.7 321.7 291.1 318.6 321.2 355.8 359.5 -89.3 -12.0 27.5 2.6 34.6 3.7
Manufacturing............................ 159.8 83.4 92.6 68.9 91.9 100.5 108.9 ..... -76.4 9.2 23.0 8.6 8.4 .....
Durable goods.......................... 61.5 9.9 17.0 2.5 17.8 22.8 24.6 ..... -51.6 7.1 15.3 5.0 1.8 .....
Primary metal industries............. 1.0 -1.6 1.2 .5 .3 1.3 2.6 ..... -2.6 2.8 -.2 1.0 1.3 .....
Fabricated metal products............ 15.4 9.0 5.8 5.2 5.8 4.7 7.3 ..... -6.4 -3.2 .6 -1.1 2.6 .....
Industrial machinery and equipment... 14.2 -.6 -2.5 -4.9 -2.9 -.1 -2.2 ..... -14.8 -1.9 2.0 2.8 -2.1 .....
Electronic and other electric
equipment........................... 5.5 -3.2 .7 -6.2 -.9 4.0 6.1 ..... -8.7 3.9 5.3 4.9 2.1 .....
Motor vehicles and equipment......... -2.2 -9.4 -7.6 -11.8 -4.4 -6.6 -7.7 ..... -7.2 1.8 7.4 -2.2 -1.1 .....
Other................................ 27.6 15.7 19.4 19.7 20.0 19.5 18.5 ..... -11.9 3.7 .3 -.5 -1.0 .....
Nondurable goods....................... 98.3 73.5 75.6 66.4 74.1 77.6 84.3 ..... -24.8 2.1 7.7 3.5 6.7 .....
Food and kindred products............ 25.8 16.6 20.1 18.9 19.2 21.0 21.1 ..... -9.2 3.5 .3 1.8 .1 .....
Chemicals and allied products........ 17.2 15.2 16.9 15.1 16.7 17.0 18.9 ..... -2.0 1.7 1.6 .3 1.9 .....
Petroleum and coal products.......... 26.1 25.7 16.9 14.1 15.4 17.4 20.7 ..... -.4 -8.8 1.3 2.0 3.3 .....
Other................................ 29.1 16.0 21.8 18.3 22.8 22.3 23.7 ..... -13.1 5.8 4.5 -.5 1.4 .....
Transportation and public utilities...... 36.6 27.7 16.7 15.0 17.1 13.2 21.5 ..... -8.9 -11.0 2.1 -3.9 8.3 .....
Transportation......................... 12.8 1.2 .3 -.5 -1.7 -.3 3.6 ..... -11.6 -.9 -1.2 1.4 3.9 .....
Communications......................... -5.5 -5.8 -11.7 -9.3 -12.7 -13.1 -11.8 ..... -.3 -5.9 -3.4 -.4 1.3 .....
Electric, gas, and sanitary services... 29.4 32.2 28.1 24.8 31.4 26.5 29.6 ..... 2.8 -4.1 6.6 -4.9 3.1 .....
Wholesale trade.......................... 62.1 44.8 47.3 41.2 44.8 44.5 58.9 ..... -17.3 2.5 3.6 -.3 14.4 .....
Retail trade............................. 73.4 79.1 81.2 81.4 86.0 82.5 75.1 ..... 5.7 2.1 4.6 -3.5 -7.4 .....
Other.................................... 91.0 98.8 83.9 84.6 78.9 80.6 91.5 ..... 7.8 -14.9 -5.7 1.7 10.9 .....
Rest of the world............................ 143.3 150.8 119.3 132.0 115.1 116.1 114.1 105.6 7.5 -31.5 -16.9 1.0 -2.0 -8.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IVA Inventory valuation adjustment
CCAdj. Capital consumption adjustment
Table 12.--Gross Product of Nonfinancial Corporate Business
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross product of nonfinancial
corporate business.................... 5,295.0 5,354.2 5,498.9 5,423.8 5,489.0 5,504.8 5,577.9 5,624.6
Consumption of fixed capital............... 599.4 652.8 686.6 670.7 685.1 693.7 696.7 697.9
Net product................................ 4,695.6 4,701.4 4,812.3 4,753.1 4,803.8 4,811.1 4,881.2 4,926.7
Indirect business tax and nontax
liability plus business transfer
payments less subsidies................. 508.9 523.7 549.1 539.3 545.6 554.2 557.2 562.0
Domestic income.......................... 4,186.6 4,177.7 4,263.3 4,213.9 4,258.2 4,256.9 4,324.0 4,364.7
Compensation of employees.............. 3,542.1 3,573.5 3,610.8 3,570.1 3,604.4 3,615.0 3,653.7 3,690.9
Wage and salary accruals............. 3,040.1 3,056.4 3,064.9 3,040.2 3,063.5 3,064.3 3,091.6 3,118.4
Supplements to wages and salaries.... 502.0 517.1 545.9 529.9 540.8 550.7 562.1 572.4
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj... 461.8 407.4 458.4 452.4 459.3 447.6 474.4 479.9
Profits before tax................... 437.9 328.8 328.6 289.2 324.4 336.3 364.4 387.9
Profits tax liability.............. 172.4 123.5 131.5 119.8 130.8 133.4 142.2 152.0
Profits after tax.................. 265.5 205.3 197.0 169.5 193.6 202.9 222.1 236.0
Dividends........................ 259.6 278.5 285.8 293.1 280.2 275.9 294.2 300.0
Undistributed profits............ 5.9 -73.2 -88.8 -123.6 -86.6 -73.0 -72.1 -64.0
Inventory valuation adjustment....... -15.0 5.0 -6.9 1.9 -5.7 -15.1 -8.5 -28.5
Capital consumption adjustment....... 38.8 73.6 136.7 161.3 140.6 126.4 118.6 120.4
Net interest........................... 182.7 196.8 194.1 191.4 194.6 194.3 195.9 193.9
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Billions of chained (1996) dollars
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Gross product of nonfinancial
corporate business\1\................. 5,148.3 5,141.8 5,307.5 5,231.3 5,298.7 5,320.7 5,379.4 5,411.4
Consumption of fixed capital\2\............ 616.7 671.9 720.8 695.2 715.4 731.4 741.1 749.7
Net product\3\............................. 4,531.5 4,469.9 4,586.7 4,536.0 4,583.3 4,589.4 4,638.3 4,661.7
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Dollars
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Price, costs, and profits per unit of
real gross product of nonfinancial
corporate business:
Price per unit of real gross product
of nonfinancial corporate business\4\... 1.029 1.041 1.036 1.037 1.036 1.035 1.037 1.039
Compensation of employees
(unit labor cost)....................... .688 .695 .680 .682 .680 .679 .679 .682
Unit nonlabor cost....................... .250 .267 .269 .268 .269 .271 .270 .269
Consumption of fixed capital........... .116 .127 .129 .128 .129 .130 .130 .129
Indirect business tax and nontax
liability plus business transfer
payments less subsidies............... .099 .102 .103 .103 .103 .104 .104 .104
Net interest........................... .035 .038 .037 .037 .037 .037 .036 .036
Corporate profits with IVA and CCADj.
(unit profits from current production).. .090 .079 .086 .086 .087 .084 .088 .089
Profits tax liability.................. .033 .024 .025 .023 .025 .025 .026 .028
Profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj... .056 .055 .062 .064 .062 .059 .062 .061
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1. Effective November 26, 2002, the estimates of chained-dollar
gross product of nonfinancial corporate business beginning with 1999
have been revised to reflect the 2002 annual revision to the gross
product price indexes for nonfinancial industries.
2. Chained-dollar consumption of fixed capital of nonfinancial
corporate business is calculated as the product of the chain-type
quantity index and the 1996 current-dollar value of the corresponding
series, divided by 100.
3. Chained-dollar net product of nonfinancial corporate business
is the difference between the gross product and the consumption of
fixed capital.
4. The deflator for gross product of nonfinancial corporate
business divided by 100.
Appendix Table A.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Aggregates and Price Indexes: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
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2000 2001 2002 II 99 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03r
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GDP and related aggregates:
GDP............................... 3.8 .3 2.4 2.0 5.2 7.1 2.6 4.8 .6 1.1 -.6 -1.6 -.3 2.7 5.0 1.3 4.0 1.4 1.9
Goods............................. 4.7 -2.3 3.3 1.5 8.2 12.0 1.4 6.9 -.5 -2.7 -4.4 -5.7 -1.5 4.3 8.3 .4 9.0 -1.6 2.9
Services.......................... 3.3 2.1 2.8 2.9 4.3 3.9 2.0 5.0 1.6 3.7 .9 1.2 1.8 3.2 2.8 3.5 2.5 3.1 .8
Structures........................ 2.7 -.1 -2.8 -1.5 -1.9 6.2 10.7 -3.6 -1.2 1.7 6.1 -1.3 -7.1 -5.6 6.1 -8.4 -5.5 2.5 4.8
Motor vehicle output.............. -2.7 -6.1 12.8 -2.0 21.0 2.0 -1.6 -7.9 -16.4 -18.1 -19.1 19.4 10.7 16.3 9.9 8.1 37.1 -13.4 -3.0
GDP less motor vehicle output..... 4.0 .5 2.1 2.1 4.6 7.3 2.7 5.4 1.2 1.8 .0 -2.2 -.6 2.3 4.9 1.0 3.0 1.9 2.1
Final sales of computers\1\....... 29.5 9.1 13.0 61.8 35.1 -3.9 56.9 45.2 9.6 10.2 30.0 -19.1 -5.3 28.9 -7.8 13.1 78.5 26.7 18.0
GDP less final sales of computers. 3.5 .2 2.4 1.5 4.9 7.2 2.2 4.5 .5 1.0 -.8 -1.4 -.2 2.6 5.1 1.2 3.6 1.2 1.8
Farm product\2\................... 11.5 -5.1 .4 25.7 -7.3 8.7 35.1 4.7 15.3 -19.1 -10.6 -17.5 -4.3 74.0 -14.2 -26.7 7.9 9.5 19.7
Nonfarm business less housing
product\3\....................... 4.1 -.1 2.8 1.8 6.0 8.5 2.1 5.6 .3 1.2 -.9 -2.8 -.8 3.0 6.3 .9 5.4 1.8 1.9
Price indexes:
GDP............................... 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.5
GDP less food and energy.......... 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.6 1.9 2.8 1.6 2.8 .0 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.6 2.0
GDP less final sales of computers. 2.3 2.6 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.9 3.3 2.5 1.8 2.2 4.1 2.7 2.4 -.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.9 2.7
Gross domestic purchases.......... 2.5 1.9 1.2 2.1 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.3 1.7 -.2 .4 1.2 2.3 1.2 1.8 3.6
Gross domestic purchases less
food and energy.................. 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.7 2.7 1.9 1.5 1.7 2.9 1.3 .6 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.5 2.0
Gross domestic purchases less
final sales of computers......... 2.8 2.2 1.4 2.4 2.2 2.4 3.9 2.4 2.4 2.3 3.8 2.0 .1 .7 1.4 2.4 1.4 2.0 3.8
Personal consumption expenditures. 2.5 2.0 1.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 3.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 3.3 1.8 -.1 .8 1.1 2.7 1.7 1.8 2.7
Personal consumption expenditures
less food and energy............. 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.8 2.8 1.2 .7 2.7 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.5 .8
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r Revised.
1. For some components of final sales of computers, includes
computer parts.
2. Farm output less intermediate goods and services purchased.
3. Consists of GDP less gross product of farm, of housing,
of households and institutions, and of general government.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Explanatory Note: Measures of Output and Prices
This note describes the calculation of chain-type quantity and price indexes used in the NIPA's.
Changes in current-dollar GDP measure changes in the market value of goods, services, and structures produced in the
economy in a particular period. These changes can be decomposed into quantity and price components. Quantities, or
"real" measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with the reference year--at present, the year 1996--equal to
100.
The annual changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two
adjacent years. (Quarterly changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights
from two adjacent quarters; quarterly indexes are adjusted for consistency to the annual indexes before percent changes
are calculated.) For example, the 2000-01 annual percent change in real GDP uses prices for 2000 and 2001 as weights,
and the 2000-01 annual percent change in GDP prices uses quantities for 2000 and 2001 as weights. These annual
changes are "chained" (multiplied) together to form time series of quantity and price indexes. The Fisher formula
produces percent changes in quantities and prices that are not affected by the choice of reference years. In addition,
because the changes in quantities and prices calculated in this way are symmetric, in general, the product of a quantity
index and the corresponding price index equals the current-dollar index. (BEA also publishes a measure of the price level
known as the "implicit price deflator (IPD)," which is calculated as the ratio of current-dollar value to the corresponding
chained-dollar value, multiplied by 100. The values of the IPD are very close to the values of the corresponding
"chain-type" price index for all periods.)
Chain-type quantity and price indexes for GDP and its major components are presented in this release as index
numbers in table 5 and in the form of percentage changes from the preceding period in tables 1, 4, 6 and from the quarter
one year ago in table 7. Contributions by major components to changes in real GDP are presented in table 2. BEA also
prepares measures of real GDP and its components in a dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (1996) dollar
estimates." For GDP and most other series, these estimates, which are presented in table 3, are computed by multiplying
the 1996 current-dollar value by a corresponding quantity index number and then dividing by 100. For example, if a
current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 1996 and if real output for this component increased 10 percent in 1997,
then the chained (1996) dollar value of this component in 1997 would be $110 ($100 x 1.10).
For analyses of changes over time in an aggregate or in a component, the percentage changes calculated from the
chained-dollar estimates and from the chain-type quantity indexes are the same; any differences will be small and due to
rounding. However, because the relative prices used as weights for any period other than the reference year differ from
those used for the reference year, the chained-dollar values for the detailed GDP components will not necessarily sum to
the chained-dollar estimate of GDP or to any intermediate aggregate. A measure of the extent of such differences is
provided by a "residual" line, which indicates the difference between GDP (or another major aggregate) and the sum of
the most detailed components in the table. For periods close to the reference year, when there usually has not been much
change in the relative prices that are used as weights for the chain-type index, the residuals tend to be small, and the
chained (1996) dollar estimates can be used to approximate the contributions to growth and to aggregate the detailed
estimates. As one moves further from the reference year, the residual tends to become larger, and the chained-dollar
estimates become less useful for analyses of contributions to growth. Thus, the contributions to percent change shown in
table 2 provide a better measure of the composition of GDP growth. In particular, for components for which relative
prices are changing rapidly, calculation of contributions using chained-dollar estimates may be misleading even just a few
years from the reference year.
References: "A Preview of the 1999 Comprehensive Revision of the NIPA's: Statistical Changes," October 1999 Survey,
pp. 6-17; "A Guide to the NIPA's," March 1998 Survey, pp. 36-40; "BEA's Chain Indexes, Time Series, and Measures of
Long-Term Economic Growth," May 1997 Survey, pp. 58-68.
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