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  4. Does BEA produce not seasonally adjusted estimates of GDP and GDI?

Does BEA produce not seasonally adjusted estimates of GDP and GDI?

Yes. In July 2018, BEA started producing not seasonally adjusted statistics (NSA) that are released at the same time as its quarterly GDP estimates each month. Not seasonally adjusted statistics can be used in conjunction with seasonally adjusted statistics and offer a new tool to evaluate the economy.

BEA publishes quarterly NSA estimates for GDP, gross domestic income, and their major components for the years 2002 and forward. NSA statistics are released concurrently with BEA’s seasonally adjusted estimates of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and can be found in Section 8 of the NIPA Interactive Data Tables and Appendix B of the monthly GDP news release.

  • The NIPA table family 8.1 is a suite of tables that present dimensions of NSA GDP and its major components, including:
    • 8.1.3 Chain-type quantity indexes for Real GDP and its major components
    • 8.1.4 Chain-type price indexes for Real GDP and its major components
    • 8.1.5 GDP and its major components in billions of dollars
    • 8.1.6 Real GDP and its major components in chained 2012 dollars
    • 8.1.11 Percent change from the same quarter one year ago in Real GDP and its major components
  • Table 8.2 presents gross domestic income and its major components in billions of dollars
  • Tables 8.3 and 8.4 present federal and state and local government current receipts and expenditures

BEA presents changes in the NSA estimates as the “percent change from the same quarter one year ago.” This calculation reduces large changes due to seasonal fluctuations that can make changes from the preceding period difficult to interpret. This rate is not comparable to the quarterly rate of change published for BEA's featured seasonally adjusted series, GDP and GDI, which are calculated from the preceding quarter at an annual rate.

Comparing NSA estimates from the same quarter one year ago does not necessarily remove all seasonal patterns from the data because calendar effects, such as the timing of holidays and trading days, as well as other special events, can influence the estimates.

For information on the methods used to derive BEA’s NSA estimates, see “Preview of the 2018 Comprehensive Update” from the April 2018 Survey of Current Business.