FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EST, MONDAY, MARCH 3, 1997 Tracey D. Schlitzer:(202)606-5301 (Personal Income) BEA 97-5 Clinton P. McCully: 606-5302 (Personal Outlays) Recorded message: 606-5303 PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: JANUARY 1997 Personal income increased $19.4 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $36.5 billion, or 0.6 percent, in January, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $37.6 billion, or 0.7 percent. In December, personal income increased $47.9 billion, or 0.7 percent, DPI increased $38.7 billion, or 0.7 percent, and PCE increased $10.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, based on revised estimates. 1996 1997 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. (Percent change from preceding month) Personal income, current dollars 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 Disposable personal income: Current dollars . . . . . . . .5 .1 .6 .7 .6 Chained (1992) dollars. . . . .3 -.2 .4 .5 .5 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars . . . . . . . .1 .9 .5 .2 .7 Chained (1992) dollars. . . . -.1 .6 .3 .0 .6 The January increase in personal income was affected by a number of special factors, which are discussed in detail below. The January increase was boosted by cost-of-living adjustments to several federal transfer payment programs, by changes to the Earned Income Credit Program, and by pay raises for federal civilian and military personnel. The January increase was reduced by program changes affecting personal contributions for social insurance and by lump-sum social security benefit payments that had boosted December personal income. Excluding these special factors, personal income increased $5.3 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in January. Wages and salaries Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $9.5 billion in January, in contrast to an increase of $41.2 billion in December. In January, a decline in average weekly hours more than offset increases in employment and in average hourly earnings. Commodity-producing industries' payrolls decreased $2.1 billion in January, in contrast to an increase of $12.3 billion in December; manufacturing payrolls decreased $2.7 billion, in contrast to an increase of $9.7 billion. Distributive industries' payrolls decreased $3.6 billion, in contrast to an increase of $6.3 billion. Service industries' payrolls decreased $3.7 billion, in contrast to an increase of $22.6 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $5.4 billion in January, compared with an increase of $0.3 billion in December. Pay raises for federal civilian and military personnel added $3.3 billion to government payrolls in January. Other personal income Transfer payments increased $17.8 billion in January, compared with an increase of $2.6 billion in December. The January increase was boosted by 2.9-percent cost-of-living adjustments to social security benefits and several other transfer programs, and by changes to the Earned Income Credit Program (a program administered through the federal income tax system that provides payments to low-income workers). The cost-of-living adjustments added $13.3 billion, and the changes to the Earned Income Credit Program added $3.0 billion, to January transfer payments. The January increase was reduced by lump-sum social security benefits, which had added $3.4 billion to December; these payments result from a recalculation of the earnings base underlying the benefits. Proprietors' income increased $1.2 billion in January, compared with an increase of $0.8 billion in December. Farm proprietors' income decreased $1.0 billion, compared with a decrease of $1.3 billion. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $2.2 billion, compared with an increase of $2.1 billion. Personal interest income increased $2.4 billion, compared with an increase of $2.7 billion. Personal contributions for social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income -- increased $1.9 billion in January, compared with an increase of $2.8 billion in December. The January increase reflected a $1.5 billion increase in social security taxable wage bases for employees and for the self- employed (from $62,700 to $65,400) and a $0.6 billion increase in supplemental medical insurance monthly premium payments. Personal taxes and disposable personal income Personal tax and nontax payments decreased $17.0 billion in January, in contrast to an increase of $9.2 billion in December. In January, federal income tax payments were reduced by $13.0 billion, reflecting a decrease in net payments of estimated taxes (payments of estimated taxes plus final settlements less refunds) based on budget projections, and by $4.0 billion, reflecting the indexation provisions of current tax law. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal tax and nontax payments -- increased $36.5 billion, or 0.6 percent, in January, compared with an increase of $38.7 billion, or 0.7 percent, in December. Personal outlays and personal saving Personal outlays -- personal consumption expenditures (PCE), interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net) -- increased $38.1 billion in January, compared with an increase of $10.9 billion in December. PCE increased $37.6 billion, compared with an increase of $10.6 billion. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $309.4 billion in January, compared with $311.1 billion in December. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 5.4 percent in January, the same as in December. Chained (1992) dollar estimates Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.5 percent in January, the same increase as in December. Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.6 percent in January, compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent in December. Purchases of durable goods increased 1.7 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.3 percent; motor vehicle purchases accounted for most of the January increase and more than accounted for the December decrease. Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent in January, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in December. Purchases of services increased 0.5 percent, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent. Revisions Estimates have been revised for October through December. Changes in personal income, current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar DPI, and current- dollar and chained (1992) dollar PCE for November and December -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below. Revisions for October were small. Change from preceding month (Dollars are in billions) November December PreviousRevisedPreviousRevised PreviousRevisedPreviousRevised (Dollars) (Percent) (Dollars) (Percent) Personal income: Current dollars. . . . 39.9 41.6 0.6 0.6 55.3 47.9 0.8 0.7 Disposable personal income: Current dollars. . . . 34.2 35.3 .6 .6 45.8 38.7 .8 .7 Chained (1992) dollars 20.0 22.3 .4 .4 33.4 26.9 .6 .5 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars. . . . 21.2 27.1 .4 .5 24.3 10.6 .5 .2 Chained (1992) dollars 9.2 15.6 .2 .3 14.6 2.2 .3 .0 BEA estimates are available in several forms in addition to printed news releases. News releases are available at the time of public release through three subscription services offered by the Commerce Department's STAT-USA. Information on how to receive releases by FAX may be obtained by calling (202) 482-1986 (voice). Information about the Economic Bulletin Board (EBB) and about Internet services may be obtained at the same voice number and on- line, as follows: EBB (202) 482-3870 Internethttp://www.stat-usa.gov In addition, BEA's most frequently requested statistical series are available on the Internet, as follows: þ The Federal Statistics Briefing Room (FSBR) on the White House web site provides summary statistics for GDP and other major aggregates on its output, income, and international statistics pages. http://www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr þ The FSBR provides links to BEA's web site, which provides summary tables and charts on BEA's national, international, and regional data. http://www.bea.gov þ BEA's web site provides links to detailed BEA databases on STAT-USA's Internet subscription service. http://www.stat-usa.gov Summary estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers: (202) 606- 5306 Gross domestic product 5303 Personal income and outlays 5362 Summary of international transactions Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. First class mail: annual subscription $90.00 domestic. Second class mail: annual subscription $49.00 domestic, $61.25 foreign; single issue $11.00 domestic, $13.75 foreign. In addition, the Survey of Current Business is now available on the Internet in a searchable, retrievable electronic format at least a week before the printed version. To subscribe to STAT-USA's World Wide Web system, go to http://www.stat-usa.gov. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT-USA's Internet information are $50.00 for 3 months or $150.00 for 1 year. For further information, call (202) 482-1986. * * * Next release -- Personal Income and Outlays for February will be released on March 31, at 8:30 A.M. EST. Table 1. -- Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ----------------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 Aug. 96 Sep. 96 Oct. 96r Nov. 96r Dec. 96r Jan. 97p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income..................... 6,115.1 6,452.4 6,502.5 6,538.7 6,543.6 6,585.2 6,633.1 6,652.5 Wage and salary disbursements..... 3,430.6 3,630.4 3,660.9 3,687.2 3,682.4 3,713.6 3,755.2 3,751.1 Private industries.............. 2,808.8 2,989.1 3,016.5 3,040.4 3,035.5 3,066.3 3,107.5 3,098.0 Commodity-producing industries 863.6 902.8 913.3 913.1 913.8 918.7 931.0 928.9 Manufacturing............... 648.4 672.6 680.7 679.5 679.7 683.2 692.9 690.2 Distributive industries....... 783.7 828.0 832.5 841.0 836.6 848.5 854.8 851.2 Service industries............ 1,161.6 1,258.4 1,270.7 1,286.3 1,285.1 1,299.0 1,321.6 1,317.9 Government...................... 621.7 641.2 644.4 646.8 646.9 647.4 647.7 653.1 Other labor income................ 424.0 436.2 438.6 440.1 441.5 442.9 444.3 445.1 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj........................... 478.3 518.3 526.0 530.4 531.1 532.1 532.9 534.1 Farm............................ 29.0 46.4 52.2 53.1 51.2 49.5 48.2 47.2 Nonfarm......................... 449.3 471.9 473.7 477.3 479.9 482.6 484.7 486.9 Rental income of persons with CCAdj........................... 122.2 126.8 126.6 128.0 128.8 128.6 128.5 130.0 Personal dividend income.......... 214.8 230.6 231.5 232.3 233.3 234.7 236.5 238.2 Personal interest income.......... 717.1 738.0 743.0 745.1 747.4 749.8 752.5 754.9 Transfer payments to persons...... 1,022.6 1,079.8 1,085.6 1,087.3 1,090.2 1,096.6 1,099.2 1,117.0 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits. 507.4 539.1 542.3 542.8 544.5 549.0 551.2 560.9 Government unemployment insurance benefits............ 21.6 22.1 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.2 22.3 Other........................... 493.6 518.7 521.4 522.5 523.6 525.6 525.9 533.8 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance................ 294.5 307.5 309.8 311.7 311.0 313.2 316.0 317.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2. -- The Disposition of Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1995 1996 Aug. 96 Sep. 96 Oct. 96r Nov. 96r Dec. 96r Jan. 97p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 6,115.1 6,452.4 6,502.5 6,538.7 6,543.6 6,585.2 6,633.1 6,652.5 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments........................... 794.3 863.9 873.3 880.4 880.3 886.6 895.8 878.8 Equals: Disposable personal income... 5,320.8 5,588.5 5,629.2 5,658.3 5,663.3 5,698.6 5,737.3 5,773.8 Less: Personal outlays............... 5,071.5 5,314.5 5,336.7 5,339.8 5,387.1 5,415.3 5,426.2 5,464.3 Personal consumption expenditures... 4,924.9 5,152.0 5,172.4 5,175.1 5,221.1 5,248.2 5,258.8 5,296.4 Interest paid by persons............ 131.7 146.3 148.2 148.6 149.3 150.5 150.7 151.3 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 14.9 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.6 Equals: Personal saving.............. 249.3 273.9 292.5 318.5 276.2 283.3 311.1 309.4 Addenda: Disposable personal income: Chained (1992) dollars 1/........... 4,945.8 5,088.1 5,117.5 5,134.0 5,122.0 5,144.3 5,171.2 5,196.5 Per capita: Current dollars................... 20,224 21,050 21,178 21,270 21,273 21,391 21,521 21,646 Chained (1992) dollars............ 18,799 19,166 19,253 19,299 19,240 19,310 19,398 19,481 Population (thousands).............. 263,090 265,482 265,807 266,022 266,222 266,406 266,586 266,740 Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income ......... 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.6 4.9 5.0 5.4 5.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. 1/ Disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars equals the current-dollar figure divided by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 3. -- Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1995 1996 Aug. 96 Sep. 96 Oct. 96r Nov. 96r Dec. 96r Jan. 97p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 362.0 337.3 39.4 36.2 4.9 41.6 47.9 19.4 Wage and salary disbursements........ 188.8 199.8 30.1 26.3 -4.8 31.2 41.6 -4.1 Private industries................ 169.5 180.3 28.2 23.9 -4.9 30.8 41.2 -9.5 Commodity-producing industries.. 38.7 39.2 6.5 -0.2 0.7 4.9 12.3 -2.1 Manufacturing................. 27.3 24.2 5.3 -1.2 0.2 3.5 9.7 -2.7 Distributive industries......... 44.5 44.3 8.7 8.5 -4.4 11.9 6.3 -3.6 Service industries.............. 86.4 96.8 12.9 15.6 -1.2 13.9 22.6 -3.7 Government........................ 19.2 19.5 1.9 2.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 5.4 Other labor income.................. 21.8 12.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.8 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj............................. 27.4 40.0 3.3 4.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.2 Farm.............................. -6.0 17.4 2.2 0.9 -1.9 -1.7 -1.3 -1.0 Nonfarm........................... 33.4 22.6 1.0 3.6 2.6 2.7 2.1 2.2 Rental income of persons with CCAdj............................. 5.6 4.6 0.3 1.4 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 1.5 Personal dividend income............ 15.2 15.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.7 Personal interest income............ 53.4 20.9 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.4 Transfer payments to persons........ 66.3 57.2 3.1 1.7 2.9 6.4 2.6 17.8 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits... 34.5 31.7 2.1 0.5 1.7 4.5 2.2 9.7 Government unemployment insurance benefits.............. -2.1 0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 Other............................. 33.9 25.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 2.0 0.3 7.9 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance.................. 16.4 13.0 2.1 1.9 -0.7 2.2 2.8 1.9 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments............................ 62.9 69.6 9.4 7.1 -0.1 6.3 9.2 -17.0 Equals: Disposable personal income.... 299.1 267.7 30.0 29.1 5.0 35.3 38.7 36.5 Less: Personal outlays................ 239.2 243.0 23.7 3.1 47.3 28.2 10.9 38.1 Personal consumption expenditures... 224.0 227.1 23.5 2.7 46.0 27.1 10.6 37.6 Interest paid by persons............ 14.5 14.6 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.6 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 0.7 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Equals: Personal saving............... 59.9 24.6 6.3 26.0 -42.3 7.1 27.8 -1.7 Addenda: Disposable personal income, chained (1992) dollars.......... 167.6 142.3 25.3 16.5 -12.0 22.3 26.9 25.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 4. -- Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 Aug. 96 Sep. 96 Oct. 96r Nov. 96r Dec. 96r Jan. 97p ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 4,924.9 5,152.0 5,172.4 5,175.1 5,221.1 5,248.2 5,258.8 5,296.4 Durable goods....................... 606.4 631.8 642.8 624.0 632.4 636.7 632.5 643.2 Nondurable goods.................... 1,485.9 1,544.7 1,542.7 1,552.6 1,562.9 1,566.2 1,567.4 1,572.4 Services............................ 2,832.6 2,975.5 2,986.9 2,998.5 3,025.9 3,045.3 3,059.0 3,080.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 4,577.8 4,690.8 4,702.2 4,695.5 4,722.1 4,737.7 4,739.9 4,766.9 Durable goods....................... 579.8 611.0 623.3 606.3 614.6 620.4 618.4 629.0 Nondurable goods.................... 1,421.9 1,441.7 1,441.9 1,446.3 1,449.8 1,448.0 1,444.4 1,446.3 Services............................ 2,577.0 2,639.1 2,638.3 2,643.9 2,658.6 2,670.0 2,677.6 2,692.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Implicit price deflators (Index numbers, 1992 = 100) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 107.6 109.8 110.0 110.2 110.6 110.8 110.9 111.1 Durable goods....................... 104.6 103.4 103.1 102.9 102.9 102.6 102.3 102.3 Nondurable goods.................... 104.5 107.1 107.0 107.4 107.8 108.2 108.5 108.7 Services............................ 109.9 112.7 113.2 113.4 113.8 114.1 114.2 114.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change from preceding period ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 224.0 227.1 23.5 2.7 46.0 27.1 10.6 37.6 Durable goods....................... 25.5 25.4 18.1 -18.8 8.4 4.3 -4.2 10.7 Nondurable goods.................... 56.2 58.8 -1.5 9.9 10.3 3.3 1.2 5.0 Services............................ 142.3 142.9 6.9 11.6 27.4 19.4 13.7 21.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 104.7 113.0 19.5 -6.7 26.6 15.6 2.2 27.0 Durable goods....................... 17.8 31.2 18.0 -17.0 8.3 5.8 -2.0 10.6 Nondurable goods.................... 31.4 19.8 3.4 4.4 3.5 -1.8 -3.6 1.9 Services............................ 55.6 62.1 -1.3 5.6 14.7 11.4 7.6 14.4 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 5. -- Percent Change From Preceding Period in Selected Series -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 Aug. 96 Sep. 96 Oct. 96r Nov. 96r Dec. 96r Jan. 97p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on current dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 6.3 5.5 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 Disposable personal income............ 6.0 5.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.6 Personal consumption expenditures..... 4.8 4.6 0.5 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.7 Durable goods....................... 4.4 4.2 2.9 -2.9 1.3 0.7 -0.7 1.7 Nondurable goods.................... 3.9 4.0 -0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 Services............................ 5.3 5.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on chained (1992) dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disposable personal income............ 3.5 2.9 0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 Personal consumption expenditures..... 2.3 2.5 0.4 -0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.6 Durable goods....................... 3.2 5.4 3.0 -2.7 1.4 1.0 -0.3 1.7 Nondurable goods.................... 2.3 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 Services............................ 2.2 2.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.