FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EDT, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30, 1997 Virginia H. Mannering: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) BEA 97-10 Kenneth A. Petrick: 606-9738 (Profits) Recorded message: 606-5306 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FIRST QUARTER 1997 (ADVANCE) Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 5.6 percent in the first quarter of 1997, according to advance estimates released by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent. Real GDP increased $96.1 billion in the first quarter, following an increase of $65.2 billion in the fourth. The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter estimates are based on preliminary and incomplete source data. Information on the assumptions used for missing source data is available on request. Revised estimates based on more comprehensive data will be issued next month. The increase in first-quarter real GDP was more than accounted for by increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), in inventory investment, in producers' durable equipment (PDE), and in exports. The acceleration in first-quarter GDP growth was more than accounted for by a turnaround in inventory investment, an acceleration in PCE, and a turnaround in PDE. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 2.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in the fourth. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 6.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent in the fourth. Durable goods purchases increased 19.9 percent, compared with an increase of 5.0 percent. Nondurable goods increased 6.3 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent. Services expenditures increased 3.6 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 11.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 5.5 percent in the fourth. Nonresidential structures increased 9.5 percent, compared with an increase of 25.8 percent. Producers' durable equipment increased 12.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.9 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 5.5 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.8 percent. Real exports of goods and services increased 8.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 25.0 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services increased 21.9 percent, compared with an increase of 3.3 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 3.5 percent in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 5.3 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased 10.1 percent, compared with a decrease of 6.9 percent. Nondefense increased 10.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 2.1 percent. Real state and local government increased 1.2 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent. Real final sales of domestic product increased 3.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 4.9 percent in the fourth. The real change in business inventories added $29.0 billion to the first- quarter change in real GDP, after subtracting $17.0 billion from the fourth-quarter change. Businesses increased inventories $46.1 billion in the first quarter, following an increase of $17.1 billion in the fourth quarter and an increase of $34.1 billion in the third. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 7.3 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent in the fourth. Disposition of personal income Current-dollar personal income increased $116.4 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $86.0 billion in the fourth. Personal tax and nontax payments decreased $0.2 billion, in contrast to an increase of $14.7 billion. Disposable personal income increased $116.6 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $71.3 billion in the fourth. Real disposable personal income increased $80.9 billion, compared with an increase of $33.4 billion. Personal outlays increased $108.4 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $77.7 billion in the fourth. Personal saving increased $8.2 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $6.4 billion. The saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.1 percent in the first quarter, the same as in the fourth. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 8.0 percent, or $149.9 billion, in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 5.4 percent, or $99.8 billion. Revised NIPA Estimates As announced in last month's release, BEA has incorporated revised national income and product account (NIPA) estimates of selected series into the tables in this release. These revisions primarily reflect work undertaken to complete the most recent comprehensive NIPA revision: the preparation of revised estimates of reproducible tangible wealth for 1929-95 and of revised NIPA estimates for 1929-58. BEA is revising the 1959-96 NIPA estimates primarily so that they will be consistent with the newly available wealth estimates, which directly affect several NIPA series shown in this release. The largest NIPA revisions resulting from the wealth revisions are to the estimates of the capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj) and of consumption of fixed capital (CFC) and to the series that depend on them, including corporate profits from current production and some components of personal income. In addition, the estimates of GDP reflect the complete incorporation of an improved methodology for preparing the estimates of change in farm inventories. Table 9 of this release shows revisions to GDP, corporate profits, and the GDP price index annually since 1981 and quarterly since 1992. (Revised estimates of corporate profits and related measures annually since 1992 and quarterly since 1994 are shown in tables 6, 7, and 8.) The revisions to GDP and the GDP price index are small and reflect only the improved methodology for farm inventories. The revisions to corporate profits from current production--corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj)--and undistributed profits with IVA and CCAdj are larger and reflect the revised CCAdj estimates. For 1996, the revision to the CCAdj was $16 billion (or 2.5 percent of the previously published estimate of profits from current production). Net cash flow with IVA and CCAdj is unrevised because the upward revisions to undistributed profits with IVA and CCAdj (9.1 percent of the previously published estimate in 1996) are offset by the downward revisions to the corporate CFC (3.4 percent of the previously published estimate). Table 10 shows revisions to national income, personal income and its disposition, and the statistical discrepancy annually since 1981 and quarterly since 1992. Revisions to national income reflect the revisions to proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj and to rental income of persons with CCAdj as well as the revisions to profits from current production. Revisions to the statistical discrepancy--the difference between GDP (the "product side" measure of output) and gross domestic income (the "income-side" measure of output)--are small because the revisions to national income are largely offset by the revisions to the CFC. For recent years, the revisions amounted to less than $1.0 billion. Revisions to personal income, as well as to disposable personal income and personal saving, reflect only the revisions to the proprietorsþ income and rental income series. The personal saving rate is revised up slightly in most years. The NIPA revisions will be discussed in more detail in the May 1997 Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. In addition, the May Survey will contain the following estimates, the release of which will mark the completion of the most recent comprehensive revision of the NIPA's: Revised NIPA estimates for 1929-58, newly available estimates of net product and net investment for 1959-96, and estimates of reproducible tangible wealth for 1929-96. All the newly available and revised estimates, including the more detailed estimates, will be available electronically through STAT-USA's Economic Bulletin Board or Internet services and on diskette from BEA. * * * BEA estimates are available in several forms in addition to the printed news releases. News releases are available at the time of public release through three subscription services offered by the Commerce Department's STAT-USA. Information on how to receive releases by FAX may be obtained by calling (202) 482-1986 (voice). Information about the Economic Bulletin Board (EBB) and about Internet services may be obtained at the same voice number and on-line, as follows: EBB (202) 482-3870 Internet http://www.stat-usa.gov In addition, BEA's most frequently requested statistical series are available on the Internet, as follows: þ The Federal Statistics Briefing Room (FSBR) on the White House web site provides summary statistics for GDP and other major aggregates on its output, income, and international statistics pages. http://www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr þ The FSBR provides links to BEA's web site, which provides summary tables and charts on BEA's national, international, and regional data. http://www.bea.gov þ BEA's web site provides links to detailed BEA databases on STAT-USA's Internet subscription service. http://www.stat-usa.gov Summary estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers: (202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product 5303 Personal income and outlays 5362 Summary of international transactions Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. First class mail: Annual subscription $90.00 domestic. Second class mail: annual subscription $49.00 domestic, $61.25 foreign; single issue $11.00 domestic, $13.75 foreign. In addition, the Survey of Current Business is now available on the Internet in a searchable, retrievable electronic format at least a week before the printed version. To subscribe to STAT-USA's World Wide Web system, go to http://www.stat-usa.gov. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT- USA's Internet information are $50.00 for 3 months or $150.00 for 1 year. For further information, call (202) 482-1986. * * * Next release -- May 30, 1997, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 1997 (Preliminary) Corporate Profits: First Quarter 1997 Measures of Revision Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: Advance estimates, based on preliminary and incomplete source data and BEA assumptions about the missing source data, are released in the first month after the end of the quarter; as additional and revised data become available, preliminary and final estimates are usually released in the second and third months, respectively. Additional revisions are carried out in each of the following 3 years, usually in July, and in comprehensive (benchmark) revisions, usually every 5 years. The latest estimates, which reflect the results of these revisions, are based on new and revised source data and also reflect improved estimating procedures, and definitional or classificational changes. The table below provides summary measures of the amount of revision in past years in quarterly percent changes in current-dollar GDP and real GDP. These measures can be used to assess the likely size of future revisions. For example, two-thirds of the revisions between the quarterly change in the advance estimate of real GDP and that in the final estimate were within a range of -0.6 to +0.9 percentage point. Thus, based on past experience, it is likely that the first- quarter change in real GDP now estimated at 5.6 percent at an annual rate, will not be revised below 5.0 percent or above 6.5 percent in the next two releases. Revision in Quarter-to-Quarter Percent Changes at Annual Rate ____________________________________________________________________________________ Range Average _________________________________ Quarterly estimates without Two-thirds Nine-tenths compared regard of of to revisions revisions sign ______________________ ______________ _____________ ____________ Current-dollar GDP Advance to final....... 0.8 -0.6 to 1.0 -1.2 to 1.6 Preliminary to final... .4 - .4 to .4 - .6 to .8 Advance to latest...... 1.3 - .9 to 2.1 -2.1 to 3.3 Preliminary to latest.. 1.2 - .9 to 1.6 -2.5 to 2.7 Final to latest........ 1.3 -1.0 to 1.8 -2.4 to 2.8 Real GDP Advance to final....... 0.6 -0.6 to 0.9 -1.1 to 1.6 Preliminary to final... .4 - .4 to .4 - .5 to .7 Advance to latest...... 1.4 -1.2 to 1.7 -3.0 to 3.0 Preliminary to latest.. 1.3 -1.4 to 1.4 -2.3 to 2.9 Final to latest........ 1.5 -1.7 to 1.7 -2.5 to 2.9 ____________________________________________________________________________________ NOTE.--These measures incorporate the comprehensive revision of GDP released in January 1996 and are based on the period from 1981 through 1992. Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Prices: Change From Preceding Period ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real gross domestic product (GDP)..... 222.3 133.8 164.6 33.6 78.3 36.0 65.2 96.1 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 133.7 104.6 112.9 39.7 38.5 5.9 39.0 73.5 Durable goods............................ 37.9 17.8 31.6 11.7 16.4 -4.0 7.5 28.8 Nondurable goods......................... 41.7 31.4 20.1 12.9 4.8 1.3 6.4 22.3 Services................................. 54.7 55.6 61.3 15.4 17.6 8.3 25.0 23.4 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 84.7 54.8 66.2 24.8 17.8 26.4 9.1 26.1 Nonresidential........................... 58.5 62.2 52.5 20.2 7.0 30.9 10.6 22.6 Structures............................. 2.5 12.3 8.9 3.4 -1.7 3.7 11.2 4.6 Producers' durable equipment........... 56.5 50.4 44.1 16.9 9.2 27.5 -1.3 18.2 Residential.............................. 26.2 -6.1 13.9 4.8 10.4 -3.7 -1.2 3.7 Change in business inventories............. 39.9 -26.2 -19.1 -17.2 10.2 27.4 -17.0 29.0 Net exports of goods and services.......... -33.7 -1.9 -6.0 -19.1 -10.7 -22.7 39.0 -31.9 Exports.................................. 53.8 63.4 50.5 3.6 11.2 -1.8 46.8 17.0 Imports.................................. 87.4 65.4 56.5 22.7 21.9 20.9 7.8 48.8 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... -1.0 .2 10.4 5.1 23.5 -2.1 -2.7 -1.8 Federal.................................. -19.4 -17.5 -5.2 6.7 10.5 -4.1 -6.4 -4.1 National defense....................... -18.4 -17.4 -5.7 3.1 7.5 -4.5 -5.5 -8.1 Nondefense............................. -1.2 -.3 .5 3.6 3.1 .2 -.8 3.7 State and local.......................... 18.7 18.1 15.7 -1.8 12.9 2.2 3.7 2.5 Residual................................... -2.6 .2 -.7 -.1 -1.4 .3 -1.8 -.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change Real GDP............................. 3.5 2.0 2.4 2.0 4.7 2.1 3.8 5.6 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 3.1 2.3 2.5 3.5 3.4 .5 3.4 6.4 Durable goods............................ 7.2 3.2 5.4 8.2 11.4 -2.6 5.0 19.9 Nondurable goods......................... 3.1 2.3 1.4 3.7 1.3 .4 1.8 6.3 Services................................. 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.7 1.3 3.8 3.6 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 10.1 6.0 6.8 10.4 7.2 10.6 3.5 10.2 Nonresidential........................... 9.8 9.5 7.4 11.6 3.8 17.5 5.5 11.9 Structures............................. 1.5 7.3 4.9 7.7 -3.7 8.4 25.8 9.5 Producers' durable equipment........... 13.2 10.4 8.3 13.1 6.7 20.9 -.9 12.9 Residential.............................. 10.8 -2.3 5.3 7.4 16.3 -5.2 -1.8 5.5 Exports of goods and services.............. 8.2 8.9 6.5 1.8 5.6 -.9 25.0 8.1 Imports of goods and services.............. 12.0 8.0 6.4 10.6 9.9 9.3 3.3 21.9 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... -.1 .0 .8 1.6 7.7 -.6 -.9 -.6 Federal.................................. -3.8 -3.6 -1.1 6.0 9.4 -3.5 -5.3 -3.5 National defense....................... -5.2 -5.2 -1.8 4.1 10.0 -5.5 -6.9 -10.1 Nondefense............................. -.7 -.2 .3 10.1 8.3 .6 -2.1 10.1 State and local.......................... 2.5 2.4 2.0 -.9 6.7 1.1 1.9 1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDP price index (chain-type weights)....... 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.7 Less: Exports of goods and services........ 1.1 3.1 .1 .2 1.4 -1.8 -2.2 .1 Plus: Imports of goods and services........ .8 2.7 -.2 .1 .7 -2.0 3.6 -3.7 Equals: Gross domestic purchases........... 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.2 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.4 3.2 1.7 2.8 2.4 Durable goods............................ 2.1 1.2 -.5 .8 -1.6 -.6 -.9 -.2 Nondurable goods......................... 1.3 1.6 2.6 3.9 4.8 .2 3.7 2.4 Services................................. 3.0 3.0 2.6 1.9 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.9 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 1.9 1.6 .9 -.1 .5 2.2 1.0 .2 Nonresidential........................... 1.4 1.0 .5 -.2 .1 1.8 .3 -.2 Structures............................. 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.2 2.0 3.4 3.1 2.3 Producers' durable equipment........... .7 .2 -.1 -.7 -.6 1.1 -.8 -1.2 Residential.............................. 3.1 3.1 1.8 .0 1.3 3.3 2.8 1.2 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... 2.0 3.3 2.7 4.1 -.3 2.5 2.6 3.6 Federal.................................. 2.7 3.8 2.4 2.0 -.7 .9 2.2 5.2 National defense....................... 2.3 3.5 2.2 3.0 1.7 .6 1.9 5.1 Nondefense............................. 3.5 4.3 2.6 .1 -5.4 1.4 3.0 5.4 State and local.......................... 1.5 3.0 2.9 5.4 .0 3.6 2.9 2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 2.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Percent Change from Preceding Period ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product (GDP)............... 6,608.4 6,742.2 6,906.8 6,813.8 6,892.1 6,928.1 6,993.3 7,089.4 Less: Exports of goods and services........ 712.0 775.4 825.9 806.7 817.9 816.1 862.9 879.9 Plus: Imports of goods and services........ 817.6 883.0 939.5 910.7 932.6 953.5 961.3 1,010.1 Equals: Gross domestic purchases........... 6,711.5 6,846.4 7,016.2 6,914.1 7,002.6 7,060.3 7,087.7 7,214.1 Personal consumption expenditures........ 4,473.2 4,577.8 4,690.7 4,649.1 4,687.6 4,693.5 4,732.5 4,806.0 Gross private domestic fixed investment.. 921.1 975.9 1,042.1 1,013.3 1,031.1 1,057.5 1,066.6 1,092.7 Change in business inventories (CBI)..... 58.9 32.7 13.6 -3.5 6.7 34.1 17.1 46.1 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................... 1,260.0 1,260.2 1,270.6 1,254.7 1,278.2 1,276.1 1,273.4 1,271.6 Less: Change in business inventories....... 58.9 32.7 13.6 -3.5 6.7 34.1 17.1 46.1 Equals: Final sales to domestic purchasers................................ 6,653.7 6,813.0 7,001.5 6,915.5 6,995.2 7,024.9 7,070.3 7,167.8 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).................. 6,550.7 6,708.9 6,892.1 6,815.2 6,884.7 6,892.7 6,975.9 7,043.3 Gross national product (GNP)............. 6,605.6 6,736.4 6,899.7 6,814.4 6,886.1 6,913.3 6,985.0 ..... Current-dollar measures: GDP.................................... 6,935.7 7,253.8 7,576.1 7,426.8 7,545.1 7,616.3 7,716.1 7,866.0 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI)........................ 6,876.2 7,216.7 7,560.7 7,428.6 7,537.1 7,579.6 7,697.4 7,815.0 Gross domestic purchases............... 7,030.1 7,348.4 7,674.8 7,513.2 7,644.3 7,736.5 7,805.2 7,977.4 Final sales to domestic purchasers..... 6,970.6 7,311.4 7,659.3 7,514.9 7,636.2 7,699.8 7,786.4 7,926.3 GNP.................................... 6,931.9 7,246.7 7,567.1 7,426.6 7,537.5 7,598.9 7,705.6 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real measures: GDP...................................... 3.5 2.0 2.4 2.0 4.7 2.1 3.8 5.6 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 2.9 2.4 2.7 3.0 4.1 .5 4.9 3.9 Gross domestic purchases................. 3.9 2.0 2.5 3.1 5.2 3.3 1.6 7.3 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 3.4 2.4 2.8 4.1 4.7 1.7 2.6 5.6 GNP...................................... 3.3 2.0 2.4 2.3 4.3 1.6 4.2 ..... Current-dollar measures: GDP...................................... 5.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 6.5 3.8 5.4 8.0 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.3 6.0 2.3 6.4 6.3 Gross domestic purchases................. 6.3 4.5 4.4 5.2 7.2 4.9 3.6 9.1 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 5.7 4.9 4.8 6.4 6.6 3.4 4.6 7.4 GNP...................................... 5.6 4.5 4.4 4.6 6.1 3.3 5.7 ..... Price indexes (chain-type weights): GDP...................................... 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.7 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.8 Gross domestic purchases................. 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.2 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 2.3 GNP...................................... 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 ..... Addenda: Implicit price deflators: GDP.................................... 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 2.3 Gross domestic purchases............... 2.2 2.5 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.5 2.0 1.7 GNP.................................... 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and Disposition of Personal Income ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Seasonally adjusted at Seasonally adjusted at s of chained (1992) dollars ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------...... 606.4 632.1 625.2 630.5 635.2 661.1 579.8 611.4 599.2 611.6 619.1 647.9 Food.................................. 747.2 772.3 765.8 773.3 782.1 793.2 702.1 704.6 709.2 701.6 702.8 710.3 .............. 192.5 204.6 198.5 206.4 210.9 215.1 177.0 184.7 182.5 185.2 187.9 191.4 Fixed investment........................ 1028.2 1101.5 1070.7 1119.6 1127.8 1151.8 975.9 1042.1 1013.3 1057.5 1066.6 1092.72.6 35.1 36.7 36.4 36.4 37.4 36.9processing and related Transportation and related 05.7 310.5 255.8 269.6 264.1 270.6 269.4 272.8business inventories.......... 37.0 15.4 -1.7 36.6 18.8 51.0 32.7 13.6 -3.5 34.1 17.1 46.1.7 11.5 -2.2 .4 .9 -3.3 -23.6 10.6 -2.1 .4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------............................... 581.4 614.9 603.6 605.4 640.2 648.0 565.9 608.8 590.9 601.1 642.6 656.80.1 Nondefense............................ 171.0 176.0 174.7 176.7 176.7 183.3 152.3 152.8 150.6 153.9 153.1 156.858.3 157.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Proprietors' income with inventory ........ 294.5 307.5 301.0 309.7 313.4 320.9 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product: Chain-type quantity index...... 105.83 107.97 110.61 109.12 110.37 110.95 111.99 113.53 Chain-type price index......... 104.96 107.57 109.88 109.03 109.62 110.17 110.69 111.44 Implicit price deflator........ 104.95 107.59 109.69 109.00 109.47 109.93 110.34 110.95 Personal consumption expenditures: Chain-type quantity index................ 106.00 108.49 111.16 110.17 111.09 111.23 112.15 113.89 Chain-type price index................... 105.09 107.58 109.97 108.91 109.76 110.23 110.98 111.64 Durable goods: Chain-type quantity index.............. 115.03 118.69 125.15 122.65 126.02 125.19 126.73 132.62 Chain-type price index................. 103.37 104.58 104.11 104.55 104.14 103.99 103.76 103.71 Nondurable goods: Chain-type quantity index.............. 105.19 107.57 109.09 108.65 109.01 109.11 109.59 111.28 Chain-type price index................. 102.82 104.50 107.22 106.01 107.26 107.32 108.31 108.96 Services: Chain-type quantity index.............. 104.65 106.96 109.50 108.52 109.25 109.59 110.63 111.60 Chain-type price index................. 106.70 109.92 112.77 111.46 112.38 113.20 114.05 114.86 Gross private domestic fixed investment: Chain-type quantity index................ 117.57 124.57 133.02 129.34 131.61 134.98 136.14 139.48 Chain-type price index................... 103.68 105.37 106.30 105.86 105.98 106.55 106.81 106.86 Nonresidential: Chain-type quantity index.............. 116.88 128.04 137.46 133.27 134.53 140.06 141.97 146.03 Chain-type price index................. 102.33 103.39 103.95 103.69 103.72 104.17 104.24 104.18 Residential: Chain-type quantity index.............. 119.23 116.49 122.69 120.19 124.81 123.16 122.61 124.27 Chain-type price index................. 106.99 110.28 112.22 111.30 111.67 112.58 113.34 113.69 Exports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index................ 111.35 121.27 129.16 126.16 127.91 127.63 134.95 137.61 Chain-type price index................... 101.00 104.12 104.26 104.37 104.73 104.26 103.67 103.70 Imports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index................ 122.23 132.00 140.45 136.14 139.40 142.54 143.70 151.00 Chain-type price index................... 99.49 102.16 102.00 101.90 102.07 101.55 102.45 101.49 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Chain-type quantity index................ 99.70 99.72 100.54 99.28 101.14 100.98 100.76 100.62 Chain-type price index................... 104.34 107.78 110.69 110.22 110.15 110.84 111.56 112.54 Federal: Chain-type quantity index.............. 92.76 89.45 88.48 87.67 89.67 88.88 87.68 86.89 Chain-type price index................. 105.43 109.38 111.96 111.83 111.64 111.88 112.50 113.93 State and local: Chain-type quantity index.............. 104.72 107.18 109.31 107.72 109.48 109.77 110.28 110.62 Chain-type price index................. 103.62 106.74 109.84 109.16 109.17 110.13 110.91 111.62 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product: Chain-type quantity index.............. 105.02 107.56 110.50 109.26 110.38 110.51 111.84 112.92 Chain-type price index................. 104.97 107.57 109.90 109.05 109.66 110.20 110.70 111.47 Implicit price deflator................ 104.97 107.57 109.70 109.00 109.48 109.97 110.34 110.96 Gross domestic purchases: Chain-type quantity index.............. 106.97 109.12 111.83 110.20 111.61 112.53 112.97 114.98 Chain-type price index................. 104.75 107.31 109.57 108.71 109.27 109.80 110.50 111.11 Implicit price deflator................ 104.75 107.33 109.39 108.66 109.16 109.58 110.12 110.58 Gross national product: Chain-type quantity index.............. 105.60 107.69 110.30 108.93 110.08 110.52 111.66 ..... Chain-type price index................. 104.94 107.55 109.88 109.03 109.62 110.17 110.69 ..... Implicit price deflator................ 104.94 107.58 109.67 108.98 109.46 109.92 110.32 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 5a.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- II 93 III 93 IV 93 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from preceding quarter (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Real gross domestic product..... 1.9 2.3 4.8 2.5 4.9 3.5 2.9 .4 .7 3.8 .3 2.0 4.7 2.1 3.8 5.6 Personal consumption expenditures...... 2.7 3.8 2.8 2.8 3.5 2.8 3.1 1.0 3.1 2.4 1.1 3.5 3.4 .5 3.4 6.4 Durable goods........................ 11.2 7.3 10.2 5.8 4.3 5.6 12.4 -8.9 7.0 9.3 -1.0 8.2 11.4 -2.6 5.0 19.9 Nondurable goods..................... 2.3 2.8 1.7 3.9 3.2 3.8 3.2 2.4 1.8 .5 -.4 3.7 1.3 .4 1.8 6.3 Services............................. 1.3 3.6 1.9 1.6 3.5 1.6 1.2 2.4 3.0 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.7 1.3 3.8 3.6 Gross private domestic fixed investment 2.8 7.2 19.5 9.0 8.8 8.8 8.4 8.6 -1.6 6.1 3.5 10.4 7.2 10.6 3.5 10.2 Nonresidential....................... 6.3 4.7 17.5 7.3 7.1 13.8 12.2 15.4 3.5 4.9 2.5 11.6 3.8 17.5 5.5 11.9 Structures......................... -5.3 .8 7.5 -11.8 15.7 .2 13.0 9.9 3.4 6.3 1.0 7.7 -3.7 8.4 25.8 9.5 Producers' durable equipment....... 11.4 6.3 21.7 15.5 4.1 19.4 11.9 17.4 3.5 4.3 3.0 13.1 6.7 20.9 -.9 12.9 Residential.......................... -5.1 13.2 24.3 12.8 12.7 -1.8 -.1 -6.3 -13.4 9.2 6.4 7.4 16.3 -5.2 -1.8 5.5 Change in business inventories......... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Exports of goods and services.......... 8.3 -8.5 23.4 -1.5 15.9 9.7 16.5 2.6 5.9 10.7 10.7 1.8 5.6 -.9 25.0 8.1 Imports of goods and services.......... 12.7 4.1 17.5 8.2 18.4 10.7 10.3 11.2 4.5 .0 1.6 10.6 9.9 9.3 3.3 21.9 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. .2 1.0 1.5 -4.3 -.8 7.0 -1.4 -1.2 .8 -.6 -4.3 1.6 7.7 -.6 -.9 -.6 Federal.............................. -4.9 -2.9 -.7 -11.4 -5.3 11.5 -5.9 -6.5 -1.3 -5.6 -13.2 6.0 9.4 -3.5 -5.3 -3.5 National defense................... -5.1 -5.8 -.4 -17.4 .7 13.5 -16.1 -7.4 .6 -7.6 -12.3 4.1 10.0 -5.5 -6.9 -10.1 Nondefense......................... -4.4 3.9 -1.3 3.1 -17.0 7.3 20.2 -4.7 -5.2 -1.3 -14.8 10.1 8.3 .6 -2.1 10.1 State and local...................... 3.9 3.8 3.0 .7 2.2 4.2 1.6 2.3 2.1 2.7 1.5 -.9 6.7 1.1 1.9 1.2 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 1.7 2.3 5.0 1.2 3.0 4.2 3.5 .6 2.1 3.6 1.4 3.0 4.1 .5 4.9 3.9 Gross domestic purchases price index. 2.4 1.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 3.0 2.0 2.8 2.8 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contribution to change in GDP (percentage points at annual rates) Real gross domestic product..... 1.9 2.3 4.8 2.5 4.9 3.5 2.9 .4 .7 3.8 .3 2.0 4.7 2.1 3.8 5.6 Personal consumption expenditures...... 1.9 2.6 1.9 1.9 2.4 1.9 2.1 .6 2.1 1.6 .7 2.4 2.3 .3 2.3 4.3 Durable goods........................ .9 .6 .8 .5 .4 .5 1.0 -.8 .6 .7 -.1 .7 .9 -.2 .4 1.6 Nondurable goods..................... .5 .6 .4 .8 .7 .8 .7 .5 .4 .1 -.1 .7 .3 .1 .4 1.2 Services............................. .5 1.4 .8 .6 1.3 .6 .4 .9 1.2 .8 .8 .9 1.1 .5 1.5 1.4 Gross private domestic fixed investment .4 .9 2.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 -.2 .8 .5 1.4 1.0 1.5 .5 1.5 Nonresidential....................... .6 .4 1.5 .7 .7 1.2 1.1 1.4 .3 .5 .2 1.1 .4 1.7 .6 1.3 Structures......................... -.1 .0 .2 -.3 .4 .0 .3 .3 .1 .2 .0 .2 -.1 .2 .7 .3 Producers' durable equipment....... .7 .4 1.3 1.0 .3 1.2 .8 1.2 .2 .3 .2 .9 .5 1.5 -.1 1.0 Residential.......................... -.2 .5 .9 .5 .5 -.1 .0 -.3 -.6 .3 .2 .3 .6 -.2 -.1 .2 Change in business inventories......... .2 .0 -.2 1.3 2.0 -.6 -.4 -.1 -1.3 .3 -1.0 -1.0 .5 1.6 -1.0 1.7 Exports of goods and services.......... .8 -.9 2.1 -.2 1.5 1.0 1.6 .3 .6 1.1 1.1 .2 .6 -.1 2.6 .9 Imports of goods and services.......... -1.4 -.4 -1.8 -.9 -2.0 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -.5 .0 -.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -.4 -2.7 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. .0 .2 .3 -.9 -.2 1.3 -.3 -.2 .1 -.1 -.8 .3 1.4 -.1 -.2 -.1 Federal.............................. -.4 -.2 -.1 -1.0 -.4 .8 -.5 -.5 -.1 -.4 -.9 .4 .6 -.2 -.4 -.2 National defense................... -.3 -.3 .0 -1.0 .0 .7 -.9 -.4 .0 -.4 -.6 .2 .4 -.3 -.3 -.5 Nondefense......................... -.1 .1 .0 .1 -.4 .2 .4 -.1 -.1 .0 -.3 .2 .2 .0 .0 .2 State and local...................... .5 .4 .3 .1 .3 .5 .2 .3 .2 .3 .2 -.1 .8 .1 .2 .1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 5b.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- II 93 III 93 IV 93 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from quarter one year ago Real gross domestic product..... 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.9 3.6 3.9 3.5 2.9 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.7 2.7 2.2 3.1 4.0 Personal consumption expenditures...... 2.9 3.1 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.1 2.7 3.4 Durable goods........................ 8.0 7.5 7.3 8.6 6.9 6.5 7.0 3.1 3.7 4.6 1.3 5.8 6.8 3.8 5.4 8.1 Nondurable goods..................... 2.5 2.5 1.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.8 2.4 Services............................. 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.8 Gross private domestic fixed investment 4.9 6.1 8.4 9.4 11.0 11.4 8.7 8.6 6.0 5.3 4.1 4.5 6.8 7.9 7.9 7.8 Nonresidential....................... 5.2 5.8 8.5 8.8 9.1 11.4 10.1 12.1 11.1 8.9 6.4 5.6 5.6 8.7 9.5 9.6 Structures......................... -3.6 -1.4 1.6 -2.4 2.5 2.4 3.6 9.5 6.5 8.1 5.1 4.5 2.7 3.2 9.1 9.5 Producers' durable equipment....... 9.1 8.9 11.5 13.6 11.7 15.0 12.6 13.0 12.9 9.1 6.9 5.9 6.7 10.7 9.7 9.6 Residential.......................... 4.4 6.8 8.1 10.8 15.7 11.6 5.7 .9 -5.6 -3.0 -1.5 2.0 9.7 5.9 3.9 3.4 Exports of goods and services.......... 3.8 .9 4.8 4.7 6.5 11.5 9.9 11.0 8.5 8.8 7.4 7.2 7.2 4.2 7.4 9.1 Imports of goods and services.......... 8.4 9.1 10.5 10.5 11.9 13.6 11.8 12.6 9.2 6.4 4.2 4.1 5.4 7.8 8.3 10.9 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. .1 -.4 -.5 -.4 -.7 .8 .0 .8 1.2 -.6 -1.3 -.6 1.0 1.0 1.9 1.3 Federal.............................. -2.6 -4.5 -5.4 -5.1 -5.2 -1.8 -3.1 -1.8 -.8 -4.9 -6.7 -3.8 -1.3 -.7 1.5 -.9 National defense................... -4.4 -7.2 -6.8 -7.4 -6.0 -1.5 -5.7 -2.9 -3.0 -7.8 -6.8 -4.0 -1.9 -1.3 .2 -3.4 Nondefense......................... 1.8 2.2 -2.2 .3 -3.2 -2.5 2.5 .5 3.9 1.8 -6.7 -3.2 .1 .5 4.1 4.1 State and local...................... 2.0 2.6 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.3 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.7 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 1.9 2.5 3.0 2.2 3.1 3.3 Gross domestic purchases price index. 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from preceding year Real gross domestic product..... 2.3 -2.1 4.0 7.0 3.6 3.1 2.9 3.8 3.4 1.2 -.9 2.7 2.3 3.5 2.0 2.4 Personal consumption expenditures...... 1.2 1.2 5.2 5.2 4.7 4.0 3.1 3.9 2.3 1.7 -.6 2.8 2.8 3.1 2.3 2.5 Durable goods........................ 1.2 -.1 14.7 14.5 9.7 9.0 1.5 6.3 2.6 -.6 -6.4 5.8 7.3 7.2 3.2 5.4 Nondurable goods..................... .9 .6 2.9 3.5 2.3 3.2 1.9 2.8 2.3 1.0 -1.0 1.5 2.0 3.1 2.3 1.4 Services............................. 1.5 1.9 4.7 4.1 5.0 3.2 4.2 4.0 2.3 2.6 .8 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.4 Gross private domestic fixed investment 1.9 -7.6 7.2 16.5 4.8 .7 -.7 2.4 1.7 -3.1 -8.0 5.7 6.8 10.1 6.0 6.8 Nonresidential....................... 5.3 -4.4 -1.7 17.3 6.2 -3.5 -1.1 4.4 4.0 -.6 -6.4 1.9 6.4 9.8 9.5 7.4 Structures......................... 7.9 -1.5 -10.4 14.3 7.3 -10.8 -3.6 .5 2.2 1.1 -10.7 -6.8 -1.7 1.5 7.3 4.9 Producers' durable equipment....... 3.7 -6.4 4.6 19.2 5.5 1.0 .3 6.4 5.0 -1.5 -4.1 6.2 10.0 13.2 10.4 8.3 Residential.......................... -8.0 -18.2 41.1 14.6 1.4 12.0 .2 -2.0 -3.7 -9.3 -12.3 16.6 7.6 10.8 -2.3 5.3 Exports of goods and services.......... 1.2 -7.1 -2.6 8.3 2.7 7.4 11.0 15.9 11.7 8.5 6.3 6.6 2.9 8.2 8.9 6.5 Imports of goods and services.......... 2.6 -1.3 12.6 24.3 6.5 8.4 6.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 -.7 7.5 9.2 12.0 8.0 6.4 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. .7 1.3 2.8 3.1 6.1 5.1 2.7 1.3 2.8 3.0 .6 .5 -.2 -.1 .0 .8 Federal.............................. 4.2 3.2 5.4 2.4 6.9 4.6 3.1 -1.8 1.3 2.0 -.5 -2.1 -3.6 -3.8 -3.6 -1.1 National defense................... 5.4 6.9 5.7 4.0 7.5 5.2 4.0 -.9 -1.0 .0 -1.0 -5.5 -5.4 -5.2 -5.2 -1.8 Nondefense......................... 1.1 -5.9 4.6 -2.2 5.1 2.8 .1 -4.9 9.2 8.0 1.1 7.2 1.0 -.7 -.2 .3 State and local...................... -2.0 -.3 .7 3.8 5.3 5.5 2.4 3.9 4.0 3.8 1.4 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.0 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 1.1 -.9 3.7 5.0 4.6 3.5 2.6 4.1 3.0 1.6 -.7 2.5 2.1 2.9 2.4 2.7 Gross domestic purchases price index. 9.2 5.9 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.6 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.5 3.7 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 6.--Corporate Profits [Billions of dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ----------------------------------- 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments..... 428.0 492.1 554.1 604.8 670.2 487.3 560.1 577.3 591.8 Profits before tax................... 406.4 464.3 531.2 598.9 639.9 475.5 526.0 550.8 572.4 Profits tax liability.............. 143.0 163.8 195.3 218.7 233.0 171.4 192.8 203.4 213.5 Profits after tax.................. 263.4 300.5 335.9 380.2 406.8 304.1 333.3 347.4 358.8 Dividends........................ 169.5 197.3 211.0 227.4 244.2 204.4 208.8 212.5 218.5 Undistributed profits............ 93.9 103.2 124.8 152.8 162.6 99.7 124.5 134.9 140.3 Inventory valuation adjustment....... -7.5 -6.6 -13.3 -28.1 -8.9 -3.9 -9.8 -16.5 -22.8 Capital consumption adjustment....... 29.1 34.4 36.2 34.0 39.2 15.7 43.9 43.0 42.2 Addenda: Net cash flow with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments... 491.9 520.3 564.2 594.6 650.8 539.3 565.0 574.3 578.0 Undistributed profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments......................... 115.5 131.0 147.8 158.7 192.9 111.5 158.6 161.3 159.7 Consumption of fixed capital......... 376.4 389.3 416.4 435.9 457.9 427.8 406.4 413.0 418.3 Less: Inventory valuation adjustment... -7.5 -6.6 -13.3 -28.1 -8.9 -3.9 -9.8 -16.5 -22.8 Equals: Net cash flow.................. 499.4 526.9 577.4 622.7 659.7 543.2 574.8 590.9 600.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 6.--Corporate Profits [Billions of dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments....... 580.0 580.8 630.0 628.3 661.2 672.1 677.3 670.1 Profits before tax..................... 594.5 589.6 607.2 604.2 642.2 644.6 635.6 637.1 Profits tax liability................ 217.3 214.2 224.5 218.7 233.4 236.4 233.4 228.9 Profits after tax.................... 377.2 375.3 382.8 385.5 408.8 408.1 402.2 408.2 Dividends.......................... 221.7 224.6 228.5 234.7 239.9 243.1 245.2 248.7 Undistributed profits.............. 155.5 150.8 154.3 150.8 168.9 165.1 156.9 159.5 Inventory valuation adjustment......... -51.9 -42.3 -9.3 -8.8 -17.4 -11.0 2.0 -9.2 Capital consumption adjustment......... 37.4 33.5 32.1 32.9 36.4 38.6 39.7 42.2 Addenda: Net cash flow with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments..... 565.4 574.8 616.5 622.0 637.4 647.3 659.7 658.6 Undistributed profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments........................... 141.0 142.0 177.0 174.9 187.9 192.6 198.6 192.5 Consumption of fixed capital........... 424.4 432.7 439.4 447.1 449.6 454.7 461.1 466.1 Less: Inventory valuation adjustment..... -51.9 -42.3 -9.3 -8.8 -17.4 -11.0 2.0 -9.2 Equals: Net cash flow.................... 617.3 617.0 625.8 630.8 654.8 658.4 657.7 667.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7.--Corporate Profits by Industry [Billions of dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ----------------------------------- 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments........................ 428.0 492.1 554.1 604.8 670.2 487.3 560.1 577.3 591.8 Domestic industries...................... 363.1 422.5 489.9 528.1 588.2 422.7 496.3 512.8 527.6 Financial.............................. 67.5 75.9 75.8 97.4 107.5 47.9 79.6 89.1 86.3 Nonfinancial........................... 295.6 346.6 414.1 430.7 480.6 374.7 416.7 423.7 441.3 Rest of the world........................ 64.9 69.6 64.3 76.7 82.0 64.6 63.8 64.4 64.2 Receipts from the rest of the world.... 68.0 79.1 88.5 111.1 126.2 82.1 83.0 93.4 95.5 Less: Payments to the rest of the worl 3.1 9.6 24.3 34.5 44.1 17.4 19.2 29.0 31.4 Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment............... 398.9 457.7 517.9 570.8 631.0 471.6 516.2 534.3 549.6 Domestic industries...................... 334.0 388.1 453.7 494.1 548.9 407.0 452.4 469.9 485.5 Financial.............................. 83.7 91.0 94.4 119.1 131.9 64.9 97.8 108.4 106.4 Federal Reserve banks................ 17.8 16.1 17.8 21.9 21.7 16.1 16.9 18.1 19.8 Other................................ 65.9 74.9 76.6 97.3 110.2 48.8 80.9 90.3 86.6 Nonfinancial........................... 250.3 297.2 359.3 375.0 417.0 342.1 354.6 361.5 379.0 Manufacturing........................ 96.3 109.7 142.7 145.7 166.5 145.3 134.2 142.8 148.4 Durable goods...................... 37.1 54.2 77.2 77.2 92.7 76.0 75.1 75.6 81.8 Primary metal industries......... -.1 .2 .7 3.0 2.0 .6 .9 .8 .4 Fabricated metal products........ 6.5 7.7 10.7 11.1 15.1 10.9 10.6 10.2 11.1 Industrial machinery and equipmen 5.6 7.0 9.0 12.1 13.3 8.7 9.1 8.0 10.1 Electronic and other electric equipment....................... 10.0 14.8 22.5 25.6 29.0 18.9 21.2 23.8 26.1 Motor vehicles and equipment..... -1.1 4.2 10.2 4.4 8.8 14.2 9.5 8.5 8.6 Other............................ 16.2 20.3 24.1 20.9 24.6 22.7 23.8 24.3 25.5 Nondurable goods................... 59.1 55.5 65.5 68.5 73.8 69.3 59.1 67.1 66.7 Food and kindred products........ 18.3 16.2 19.1 17.7 17.6 19.5 18.0 19.7 19.4 Chemicals and allied products.... 16.5 16.4 18.0 20.9 21.1 17.6 18.5 17.0 19.0 Petroleum and coal products...... -1.6 -2.2 -.1 .8 -1.2 .5 -8.2 3.3 4.2 Other............................ 26.0 25.1 28.4 29.1 36.4 31.7 30.8 27.1 24.2 Transportation and public utilities.. 57.8 70.6 81.3 94.8 99.0 73.3 81.3 81.6 89.0 Transportation..................... 2.3 7.4 10.8 14.4 13.9 8.6 9.5 11.2 13.9 Communications..................... 27.9 32.9 36.7 41.0 45.4 35.9 37.0 35.1 38.7 Electric, gas, and sanitary service 27.6 30.2 33.8 39.4 39.7 28.8 34.8 35.2 36.4 Wholesale trade...................... 23.0 25.5 34.5 29.6 36.6 28.8 39.5 34.3 35.4 Retail trade......................... 32.2 39.2 42.2 38.7 41.8 38.3 43.2 43.7 43.6 Other................................ 41.0 52.1 58.6 66.2 73.1 56.3 56.5 59.0 62.5 Rest of the world........................ 64.9 69.6 64.3 76.7 82.0 64.6 63.8 64.4 64.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7.--Corporate Profits by Industry [Billions of dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.......................... 580.0 580.8 630.0 628.3 661.2 672.1 677.3 670.1 Domestic industries........................ 504.9 501.8 559.1 546.6 578.0 593.7 600.7 580.2 Financial................................ 93.7 91.1 108.2 96.6 111.6 112.7 110.1 95.7 Nonfinancial............................. 411.2 410.6 450.9 450.0 466.4 481.0 490.6 484.5 Rest of the world.......................... 75.1 79.1 70.8 81.7 83.2 78.4 76.6 89.9 Receipts from the rest of the world...... 106.7 113.8 110.1 113.9 122.2 122.6 122.9 137.0 Less: Payments to the rest of the world. 31.6 34.8 39.3 32.3 39.0 44.2 46.3 47.1 Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment................. 542.6 547.3 597.9 595.3 624.8 633.5 637.6 627.9 Domestic industries........................ 467.5 468.2 527.1 513.7 541.6 555.1 561.0 538.0 Financial................................ 114.3 112.6 130.4 119.3 134.9 136.6 135.0 121.3 Federal Reserve banks.................. 21.5 22.3 21.9 21.7 21.5 21.7 21.6 22.0 Other.................................. 92.7 90.3 108.5 97.6 113.4 114.9 113.4 99.3 Nonfinancial............................. 353.2 355.6 396.7 394.4 406.7 418.5 426.1 416.7 Manufacturing.......................... 134.7 137.8 153.2 157.3 161.3 164.7 170.6 169.4 Durable goods........................ 75.8 74.0 78.1 80.8 89.5 92.4 94.6 94.5 Primary metal industries........... 2.2 4.7 2.5 2.7 2.3 1.4 3.2 1.1 Fabricated metal products.......... 10.2 11.5 10.7 12.2 13.9 14.4 16.0 15.9 Industrial machinery and equipment. 12.5 12.1 12.5 11.1 14.3 13.6 13.0 12.4 Electronic and other electric equipment......................... 23.2 22.4 27.3 29.5 27.1 27.4 29.2 32.2 Motor vehicles and equipment....... 6.7 3.0 4.4 3.6 8.1 10.6 10.2 6.4 Other.............................. 21.0 20.4 20.6 21.7 23.8 25.0 23.0 26.5 Nondurable goods..................... 58.8 63.8 75.0 76.5 71.8 72.3 76.1 74.9 Food and kindred products.......... 18.3 18.4 16.8 17.5 15.7 13.2 18.3 23.0 Chemicals and allied products...... 16.8 21.3 23.6 22.1 20.7 21.9 23.0 18.7 Petroleum and coal products........ -2.3 -.2 5.2 .3 -4.5 1.3 -1.2 -.5 Other.............................. 26.0 24.3 29.4 36.6 39.9 35.9 35.9 33.7 Transportation and public utilities.... 88.5 92.5 102.3 95.8 95.6 104.5 102.5 93.2 Transportation....................... 13.6 13.5 15.0 15.4 13.1 14.0 15.2 13.2 Communications....................... 38.6 41.3 44.0 40.1 43.3 46.5 47.6 44.4 Electric, gas, and sanitary services. 36.3 37.7 43.3 40.3 39.3 44.1 39.7 35.7 Wholesale trade........................ 29.7 26.4 31.2 31.2 37.5 32.8 34.5 41.5 Retail trade........................... 36.0 36.6 42.5 39.6 41.7 44.3 44.5 36.7 Other.................................. 64.3 62.3 67.5 70.5 70.6 72.2 73.9 75.9 Rest of the world.......................... 75.1 79.1 70.8 81.7 83.2 78.4 76.6 89.9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 8.--Gross Domestic Product of Nonfinancial Corporate Business ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ----------------------------------- 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of dollars ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business.... 3,262.6 3,437.5 3,689.4 3,885.8 4,107.8 3,601.7 3,663.0 3,709.5 3,783.2 Consumption of fixed capital............. 330.5 340.8 363.3 377.9 395.2 376.7 353.9 359.2 363.4 Net domestic product..................... 2,932.2 3,096.7 3,326.1 3,507.9 3,712.6 3,225.0 3,309.1 3,350.3 3,419.8 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies............... 337.0 356.2 379.6 400.9 407.5 372.6 376.5 382.1 387.2 Domestic income........................ 2,595.1 2,740.5 2,946.4 3,106.9 3,305.1 2,852.4 2,932.6 2,968.2 3,032.7 Compensation of employees............ 2,195.3 2,294.3 2,434.8 2,574.9 2,721.8 2,381.8 2,418.4 2,445.8 2,493.3 Wage and salary accruals........... 1,808.9 1,881.2 1,994.1 2,111.9 2,245.1 1,951.2 1,979.9 2,003.0 2,042.5 Supplements to wages and salaries.. 386.5 413.1 440.7 463.1 476.7 430.6 438.6 442.7 450.8 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments......................... 295.6 346.6 414.1 430.7 480.6 374.7 416.7 423.7 441.3 Profits before tax................. 257.8 303.7 372.5 403.0 425.9 346.0 364.4 378.0 401.8 Profits tax liability............ 91.1 103.5 129.9 140.7 148.0 121.0 126.9 130.9 140.6 Profits after tax................ 166.7 200.3 242.7 262.4 277.9 225.0 237.5 247.1 261.1 Dividends...................... 133.6 152.6 161.8 175.9 187.8 154.9 160.9 161.0 170.2 Undistributed profits.......... 33.1 47.6 80.9 86.5 90.1 70.1 76.7 86.1 91.0 Inventory valuation adjustment..... -7.5 -6.6 -13.3 -28.1 -8.9 -3.9 -9.8 -16.5 -22.8 Capital consumption adjustment..... 45.3 49.5 54.8 55.7 63.7 32.7 62.1 62.2 62.3 Net interest......................... 104.2 99.6 97.5 101.3 102.6 95.9 97.5 98.7 98.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Billions of chained (1992) dollars ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business.... 3,262.6 3,379.7 3,567.4 3,691.2 3,858.7 3,503.7 3,552.9 3,577.5 3,635.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dollars ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of real gross domestic product 1.000 1.017 1.034 1.053 1.065 1.028 1.031 1.037 1.041 Consumption of fixed capital............. .101 .101 .102 .102 .102 .108 .100 .100 .100 Net domestic product..................... .899 .916 .932 .950 .962 .920 .931 .936 .941 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies............... .103 .105 .106 .109 .106 .106 .106 .107 .107 Domestic income........................ .795 .811 .826 .842 .857 .814 .825 .830 .834 Compensation of employees............ .673 .679 .683 .698 .705 .680 .681 .684 .686 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments......................... .091 .103 .116 .117 .125 .107 .117 .118 .121 Profits tax liability.............. .028 .031 .036 .038 .038 .035 .036 .037 .039 Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments....................... .063 .072 .080 .079 .086 .072 .082 .082 .083 Net interest......................... .032 .029 .027 .027 .027 .027 .027 .028 .027 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 8.--Gross Domestic Product of Nonfinancial Corporate Business ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business...... 3,803.3 3,841.9 3,924.8 3,973.2 4,011.6 4,081.6 4,143.1 4,194.8 Consumption of fixed capital............... 368.4 375.2 380.7 387.3 388.7 392.7 397.7 401.6 Net domestic product....................... 3,434.9 3,466.6 3,544.0 3,585.9 3,622.9 3,688.9 3,745.4 3,793.2 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies................. 394.1 401.1 401.6 406.9 405.3 403.0 406.6 415.2 Domestic income.......................... 3,040.8 3,065.5 3,142.4 3,179.0 3,217.6 3,285.9 3,338.8 3,378.0 Compensation of employees.............. 2,528.5 2,553.1 2,590.6 2,627.6 2,651.3 2,703.4 2,744.3 2,788.2 Wage and salary accruals............. 2,069.8 2,093.0 2,125.7 2,159.0 2,182.9 2,229.0 2,264.7 2,303.7 Supplements to wages and salaries.... 458.6 460.1 464.9 468.6 468.4 474.4 479.6 484.5 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments........................... 411.2 410.6 450.9 450.0 466.4 481.0 490.6 484.5 Profits before tax................... 405.1 397.9 406.0 403.2 424.1 429.5 424.1 425.9 Profits tax liability.............. 142.2 138.5 141.3 140.6 147.7 149.2 146.9 148.1 Profits after tax.................. 262.9 259.4 264.7 262.6 276.4 280.3 277.1 277.8 Dividends........................ 172.1 176.1 174.9 180.3 185.6 187.9 186.2 191.5 Undistributed profits............ 90.8 83.3 89.7 82.4 90.8 92.4 90.9 86.3 Inventory valuation adjustment....... -51.9 -42.3 -9.3 -8.8 -17.4 -11.0 2.0 -9.2 Capital consumption adjustment....... 58.0 55.0 54.2 55.6 59.7 62.5 64.6 67.8 Net interest........................... 101.2 101.8 100.9 101.4 100.0 101.5 103.9 105.2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business...... 3,632.9 3,654.7 3,718.7 3,758.6 3,779.2 3,831.4 3,888.4 3,935.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of real gross domestic product.. 1.047 1.051 1.055 1.057 1.062 1.065 1.066 1.066 Consumption of fixed capital............... .101 .103 .102 .103 .103 .103 .102 .102 Net domestic product....................... .946 .949 .953 .954 .959 .963 .963 .964 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies................. .108 .110 .108 .108 .107 .105 .105 .105 Domestic income.......................... .837 .839 .845 .846 .851 .858 .859 .858 Compensation of employees.............. .696 .699 .697 .699 .702 .706 .706 .708 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments........................... .113 .112 .121 .120 .123 .126 .126 .123 Profits tax liability................ .039 .038 .038 .037 .039 .039 .038 .038 Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments......................... .074 .074 .083 .082 .084 .087 .088 .085 Net interest........................... .028 .028 .027 .027 .026 .026 .027 .027 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 9.--Revisions to Gross Domestic Product and Corporate Profits: Revised Less Previously Published Percent change from Billions of dollars, quarterly data seasonally adjusted at annual rates preceding period, quarterly changes at annual rates Year and Gross domestic product Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj Net cash flow with IVA and CCAdj Quarter Gross domestic Real Gross Change in Final sales Profits Undistributed Consumption product of gross domestic Total business of domestic Total before tax CCAdj Total profits of nonfinancial domestic product inventories product with with IVA fixed corporate product price index IVA and CCAdj capital business 1981 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.1 0.0 23.1 0.0 23.1 -23.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 1982 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.1 0.0 23.1 0.0 23.1 -23.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1983 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.9 0.0 22.9 0.0 22.9 -22.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1984 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.9 0.0 21.8 0.0 21.8 -21.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 1985 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.8 0.0 21.7 0.0 21.8 -21.8 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1986 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.8 0.0 22.8 0.0 22.9 -22.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1987 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.5 0.0 23.4 0.0 23.4 -23.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1988 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.9 0.0 24.9 0.0 25.0 -24.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1989 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.6 0.0 23.5 0.0 23.5 -23.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1990 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.6 0.0 27.6 0.0 27.5 -27.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1991 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.8 0.0 28.8 0.0 28.8 -28.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1992 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.6 0.0 26.6 0.0 26.6 -26.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1993 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.7 0.0 27.7 0.0 27.7 -27.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1994 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.6 0.0 24.6 0.0 24.6 -24.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1995 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.2 0.0 18.1 0.0 18.1 -18.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1996 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.2 0.0 16.1 0.0 16.1 -16.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1992 I 0.0 0.1 0.0 26.9 0.0 26.8 0.0 26.9 -26.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1992 II 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.9 0.0 27.9 0.0 28.0 -28.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1992 III 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.8 0.0 24.8 0.0 24.7 -24.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 1992 IV 0.1 0.1 0.0 26.9 0.0 26.9 0.0 26.8 -26.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1993 I 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.7 0.0 26.7 0.0 26.7 -26.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1993 II 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.6 0.0 28.7 0.0 28.7 -28.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1993 III -0.1 0.0 0.0 28.4 0.0 28.3 0.0 28.3 -28.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1993 IV 0.1 0.1 0.0 27.1 0.0 27.1 0.0 27.1 -27.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1994 I 0.1 0.0 0.0 27.6 0.0 27.5 0.0 27.6 -27.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1994 II 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.8 0.0 25.8 0.0 25.9 -25.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1994 III 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.2 0.0 24.2 0.0 24.1 -24.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1994 IV 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.9 0.0 20.9 0.0 20.9 -21.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1995 I 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 -20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1995 II 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.5 0.0 18.5 0.0 18.5 -18.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1995 III 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 0.0 17.5 0.0 17.4 -17.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1995 IV 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.5 0.0 16.4 0.0 16.5 -16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1996 I 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.1 0.0 16.0 0.0 16.1 -16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1996 II 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.3 0.0 16.3 0.0 16.3 -16.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1996 III 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.1 0.0 16.1 0.0 16.1 -16.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1996 IV 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.0 0.0 16.0 0.0 16.0 -16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Table 10.--Revisions to Gross Domestic Product, National Income, and Disposition of Personal Income: Revised Less Previously Published Billions of dollars, quarterly data seasonally adjusted at annual rates Gross domestic product Personal income Personal Year saving and Disposable as a Quarter National income personal percentage Total Proprietors' Other/4/ income of disposable Total Consumption Other gross Statistical income and personal Proprietors' income Rental Corporate of fixed domestic discrep- rental income income Total with IVA and CCAdj income of profits with Other /1/ capital income/2/ ancy/3/ of persons persons IVA and with IVA with CCAdj CCAdj and CCAdj Farm Nonfarm 1981 0.0 31.2 -1.8 11.1 -1.2 23.1 0.0 -31.4 0.0 0.3 8.1 8.1 0.0 8.1 0.3 1982 0.0 31.6 -1.9 11.6 -1.1 23.1 0.0 -32.0 0.0 0.4 8.5 8.6 0.0 8.5 0.3 1983 0.0 31.9 -1.9 12.0 -1.1 22.9 0.0 -32.6 0.0 0.6 9.1 9.1 0.0 9.1 0.4 1984 0.0 31.7 -1.6 12.4 -0.9 21.9 0.0 -32.5 0.0 0.8 9.8 9.9 0.0 9.8 0.3 1985 0.0 31.9 -1.3 12.5 -1.0 21.8 0.0 -32.9 0.0 1.1 10.2 10.2 0.0 10.1 0.3 1986 0.0 33.8 -1.0 12.7 -0.8 22.8 0.0 -34.9 0.0 1.2 10.9 10.9 0.0 10.9 0.3 1987 0.0 34.9 -0.8 13.0 -0.7 23.5 0.0 -36.1 0.0 1.2 11.4 11.5 0.0 11.5 0.3 1988 0.0 36.7 -0.7 13.1 -0.6 24.9 0.0 -38.0 0.0 1.3 11.8 11.8 0.0 11.8 0.3 1989 0.0 35.2 -0.5 12.9 -0.7 23.6 0.0 -36.8 0.0 1.6 11.7 11.7 0.0 11.6 0.3 1990 0.0 40.2 -0.9 14.0 -0.4 27.6 0.0 -41.6 0.0 1.3 12.6 12.6 0.0 12.6 0.3 1991 0.0 41.9 -0.9 14.5 -0.5 28.8 0.0 -43.2 0.0 1.3 13.1 13.1 0.0 13.1 0.3 1992 0.0 39.6 -0.9 15.2 -1.2 26.6 0.0 -40.7 0.0 1.1 13.0 13.0 0.0 13.0 0.3 1993 0.0 43.2 -0.9 16.7 -0.3 27.7 0.0 -44.1 0.0 0.8 15.5 15.6 0.0 15.5 0.3 1994 0.0 33.6 -0.7 14.1 -4.5 24.6 0.0 -34.0 0.0 0.4 8.9 8.9 0.0 8.9 0.1 1995 0.0 15.4 -1.1 8.9 -10.5 18.2 0.0 -14.8 0.0 -0.6 -2.7 -2.7 0.0 -2.7 -0.1 1996 0.0 13.3 -1.7 10.7 -11.8 16.2 0.0 -12.8 0.0 -0.5 -2.8 -2.8 0.0 -2.8 0.0 1992 I 0.0 39.2 -0.8 14.6 -1.4 26.9 0.0 -40.4 0.0 1.2 12.3 12.3 0.0 12.3 0.2 1992 II 0.0 40.5 -0.8 14.9 -1.4 27.9 0.0 -41.7 0.0 1.2 12.6 12.5 0.0 12.6 0.3 1992 III 0.0 37.9 -0.9 15.3 -1.3 24.8 0.0 -39.1 0.0 1.1 13.1 13.2 0.0 13.2 0.3 1992 IV 0.1 40.9 -0.8 15.9 -1.1 26.9 0.0 -41.8 0.0 1.0 14.0 14.0 0.0 14.0 0.3 1993 I 0.0 43.2 -0.9 17.3 0.1 26.7 0.0 -44.2 0.0 1.0 16.4 16.5 0.0 16.4 0.3 1993 II 0.0 45.2 -0.9 17.4 0.2 28.6 0.0 -46.1 0.0 0.8 16.5 16.6 0.0 16.6 0.3 1993 III -0.1 43.9 -0.9 16.7 -0.3 28.4 0.0 -44.8 0.0 0.9 15.5 15.6 0.0 15.5 0.3 1993 IV 0.1 40.6 -0.8 15.5 -1.2 27.1 0.0 -41.4 0.0 0.8 13.6 13.5 0.0 13.6 0.3 1994 I 0.1 58.8 -0.7 29.0 3.0 27.6 0.0 -59.6 0.0 0.8 31.2 31.2 0.0 31.3 0.6 1994 II 0.0 31.4 -0.7 11.5 -5.1 25.8 0.0 -32.3 0.0 0.8 5.5 5.6 0.0 5.5 0.2 1994 III 0.0 25.8 -0.7 9.3 -6.9 24.2 0.0 -26.2 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.6 0.0 1.7 0.0 1994 IV 0.0 18.2 -0.7 6.9 -8.9 20.9 0.0 -17.8 0.0 -0.5 -2.6 -2.7 0.0 -2.7 -0.1 1995 I 0.0 18.4 -0.8 8.2 -9.0 20.0 0.0 -17.9 0.0 -0.5 -1.6 -1.6 0.0 -1.6 -0.1 1995 II 0.0 16.4 -1.0 8.5 -9.7 18.5 0.0 -15.7 0.0 -0.7 -2.2 -2.2 0.0 -2.2 0.0 1995 III 0.0 14.6 -1.0 9.2 -11.0 17.5 0.0 -13.7 0.0 -0.9 -2.8 -2.8 0.0 -2.8 0.0 1995 IV 0.0 12.3 -1.7 9.9 -12.3 16.5 0.0 -12.0 0.0 -0.3 -4.3 -4.2 0.0 -4.2 -0.1 1996 I 0.0 12.2 -1.8 10.4 -12.4 16.1 0.0 -11.6 0.0 -0.6 -4.0 -3.9 0.0 -3.9 0.0 1996 II 0.0 13.5 -1.7 11.1 -12.1 16.3 0.0 -13.0 0.0 -0.6 -2.8 -2.8 0.0 -2.8 0.0 1996 III 0.0 13.6 -1.7 10.9 -11.8 16.1 0.0 -13.0 0.0 -0.6 -2.5 -2.5 0.0 -2.5 0.0 1996 IV 0.0 13.9 -1.8 10.7 -11.0 16.0 0.0 -13.6 0.0 -0.4 -2.1 -2.1 0.0 -2.0 0.0 IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment /1/Consists of compensation of employees and net interest. /2/Consists of indirect business tax and nontax liability, business transfer payments, and subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises. /3/Gross domestic product less gross domestic income, which consists of national income, consumption of fixed capital, and the components identified in footnote 2. /4/Consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, transfer payments to persons, personal dividend income, personal interest income, less personal contributions for social insurance. Explanatory Note: Measures of Output and Prices Changes in current-dollar GDP measure changes in the market value of goods and services produced in the economy in a particular period. For many purposes, it is necessary to decompose these changes into quantity and price components. This note describes the indexes used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to estimate the quantity and price changes presented in this release and in the related tables that appear in the Survey of Current Business. To compute the quantity indexes, changes in the quantities of individual goods and services are weighted by their prices. (Quantity changes for GDP are often referred to as changes in "real GDP.") For the price indexes, changes in the prices for individual goods and services are weighted by quantities produced. (In practice, the current- dollar value and price indexes for most GDP components are determined largely using data from federal government surveys, and the real values of these components are calculated by deflation at the most detailed level for which all the required data are available.) Except for the most recent period, the annual and quarterly changes in real GDP and prices are "chain-type" measures that are both based on the "Fisher Ideal" formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent years. For example, the 1992-93 percent change in real GDP uses prices for 1992 and 1993 as weights, and the 1992-93 percent change in price uses quantities for 1992 and 1993 as weights. Because the quantity and price index numbers calculated in this way are symmetric, the product of the annual change in real GDP and the annual change in prices equals the annual change in current-dollar GDP. In the most recent period (currently, for quarters beginning with the third quarter of 1995), a variant of the formula is used because only one year's information is available for computing the index number weights. Accordingly, BEA uses a single year's weights (currently 1995) and, as a consequence, the product of the percentage changes in the price and quantity indexes does not equal the current-dollar change during this period. For this reason, another measure, known as the "implicit price deflator," is presented in this release. The implicit price deflator is calculated as the ratio of current-dollar value to the corresponding chained-dollar value multiplied by 100. The quantity and price indexes and implicit price deflators for GDP and its major components are presented in this release as index numbers in table 4 and in the form of percentage changes from the preceding period in tables 1, 2, 5A and 5B. Table 5A also presents the contributions of the major components to the change in real GDP. In addition, BEA prepares measures of real GDP and its components in a dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (1992) dollar estimates." These estimates, which are presented in tables 2 and 3 of this release, are computed by multiplying the 1992 current-dollar value of GDP, or of a GDP component, by the corresponding quantity index number. For example, if a current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 1992 and if real output for this component increased by 10 percent in 1993, then the "chained (1992) dollar" value of this component in 1993 would be $110 ($100 x 1.10). Note that percentage changes in the chained (1992) dollar estimates and the percentage changes calculated from the quantity indexes are identical, except for small differences due to rounding. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed GDP components shown in tables 1 and 3 do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. The "residual" line shown in these tables is the difference between GDP and the sum of the most detailed components shown in each table. For current periods, the residual is small. However, the residual tends to become larger as one moves further from the base period. In such cases, the table of contributions of the major components to the change in real GDP provides a better basis for determining the composition of GDP growth than the chained- dollar estimates. References: "Preview of the Comprehensive Revision of the NIPA's: BEA Featured Measures of Output and Prices," July 1995 Survey of Current Business. "Alternative Measures of Changes in Real Output and Prices, Quarterly Estimates for 1959-92," March 1993 Survey of Current Business.