FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EDT, FRIDAY, AUGUST 28, 1998 George Smith: (202) 606-5301 (Personal Income) BEA 98-27 Greg Key: 606-5302 (Personal Outlays) Recorded message: 606-5303 PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: JULY 1998 Personal income increased $34.2 billion, or 0.5 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $27.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, in July, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $13.8 billion, or 0.2 percent. In June, personal income increased $18.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, DPI increased $11.5 billion, or 0.2 percent, and PCE increased $36.4 billion, or 0.6 percent, based on revised estimates. 1998 Mar. Apr. May June July (Percent change from preceding month) Personal income, current dollars 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 Disposable personal income: Current dollars .4 .3 .3 .2 .5 Chained (1992) dollars .4 .1 .1 .2 .3 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars .3 .5 .9 .6 -.2 Chained (1992) dollars .3 .3 .7 .7 -.4 The June and July increases in personal income were affected by a strike in the motor vehicle industry that reduced wages and salaries in that industry by approximately $3.5 billion in June and by approximately $7.5 billion in July. Because other effects of the strike are embedded in BEA's source data and cannot easily be separated, BEA does not attempt to quantify their impact. Wages and salaries Private wage and salary disbursements increased $22.9 billion in July, compared with an increase of $4.4 billion in June. Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $0.2 billion, compared with a decrease of $4.5 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $3.8 billion, compared with a decrease of $5.1 billion. Distributive industries' payrolls increased $8.4 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $1.1 billion. Service industries' payrolls increased $14.6 billion, compared with an increase of $10.1 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $1.8 billion, compared with an increase of $2.5 billion. Other personal income Proprietors' income increased $4.5 billion in July, compared with an increase of $3.8 billion in June. Farm proprietors' income decreased $1.4 billion, compared with a decrease of $0.4 billion. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $5.9 billion, compared with an increase of $4.2 billion. Transfer payments increased $2.7 billion in July, compared with an increase of $3.9 billion in June. Rental income of persons increased $1.8 billion, compared with an increase of $2.0 billion. Personal interest income increased $1.2 billion in July, the same as in June. Personal taxes and disposable personal income Personal tax and nontax payments increased $6.7 billion in July, compared with an increase of $6.6 billion in June. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal tax and nontax payments -- increased $27.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, in July, compared with an increase of $11.5 billion, or 0.2 percent, in June. Personal outlays and personal saving Personal outlays -- PCE, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net) -- decreased $13.1 billion in July, in contrast to an increase of $38.2 billion in June. PCE decreased $13.8 billion, in contrast to an increase of $36.4 billion. Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $45.5 billion in July, compared with $5.1 billion in June. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 0.8 percent in July, compared with 0.1 percent in June. Chained (1992) dollar estimates Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.3 percent in July, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in June. Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 0.4 percent in July, in contrast to an increase of 0.7 percent in June. Purchases of durable goods decreased 5.4 percent, in contrast to an increase of 2.1 percent; motor vehicle purchases more than accounted for the July decrease and accounted for most of the June increase. Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.2 percent in July, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in June. Purchases of services increased 0.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent. Revisions Estimates have been revised for April through June. Changes in personal income, current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar PCE for May and June -- revised and as published in the prior release -- are shown below. Revisions for April were also small. Change from preceding month May June Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised (Dollars) (Percent) (Dollars) (Percent) Personal income: Current dollars . . 30.6 30.4 0.4 0.4 16.2 18.1 0.2 0.3 Disposable personal income: Current dollars . . 18.4 18.7 0.3 0.3 9.3 11.5 0.2 0.2 Chained (1992) dollars 6.1 6.2 0.1 0.1 7.7 12.7 0.1 0.2 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars . . 48.8 51.5 0.9 0.9 33.6 36.4 0.6 0.6 Chained (1992) dollars 33.5 35.8 0.7 0.7 29.2 34.6 0.6 0.7 * * * BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; selected articles from the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available on BEA's web site: http://www.bea.gov STAT-USA maintains an electronic bulletin board (EBB) and an Internet site, which contain BEA estimates, BEA news releases, and the Survey of Current Business. The information available through STAT-USA is often more detailed and more timely than that available from other sources. To subscribe to STAT-USA's World Wide Web system, go to http://www.stat-usa.gov. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT-USA's Internet information are $50.00 for 3 months or $150.00 for 1 year. For further information, call (202) 482-1986. Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers: (202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product 606-5303 Personal income and outlays 606-5362 Summary of international transactions Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The printed Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C. 20402. First class mail: Annual subscription $88.00 domestic. Second class mail: Annual subscription $39.00 domestic, $48.75 foreign; single issue $14.00 domestic, $17.50 foreign. * * * Next release -- Personal Income and Outlays for August will be released on September 25, at 8:30 A.M. EDT. Table 1. -- Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ----------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1997 Feb. 98 Mar. 98 Apr. 98r May 98r June 98r July 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income..................... 6,425.2 6,784.0 7,007.3 7,033.9 7,054.5 7,084.9 7,103.0 7,137.2 Wage and salary disbursements..... 3,631.1 3,889.8 4,066.4 4,079.3 4,097.6 4,124.4 4,131.3 4,155.9 Private industries.............. 2,990.2 3,225.7 3,386.5 3,397.9 3,414.0 3,438.6 3,443.0 3,465.9 Goods-producing industries.... 909.0 975.0 1,020.2 1,020.1 1,022.8 1,025.5 1,021.0 1,020.8 Manufacturing............... 674.6 719.5 750.8 751.8 750.8 753.2 748.1 744.3 Distributive industries....... 823.3 879.8 920.8 920.5 926.4 935.6 934.5 942.9 Service industries............ 1,257.9 1,370.8 1,445.5 1,457.3 1,464.7 1,477.5 1,487.6 1,502.2 Government...................... 640.9 664.2 680.0 681.4 683.7 685.7 688.2 690.0 Other labor income................ 387.0 392.9 402.8 403.8 404.7 405.7 406.6 407.5 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj........................... 527.7 551.2 563.9 568.8 568.9 568.0 571.8 576.3 Farm............................ 38.9 35.5 27.3 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.3 23.9 Nonfarm......................... 488.8 515.8 536.6 542.2 542.8 542.3 546.5 552.4 Rental income of persons with CCAdj........................... 150.2 158.2 158.4 158.3 159.9 161.8 163.8 165.6 Personal dividend income.......... 248.2 260.3 261.6 261.8 262.0 262.1 262.3 262.4 Personal interest income.......... 719.4 747.3 757.0 759.3 761.1 762.4 763.6 764.8 Transfer payments to persons...... 1,068.0 1,110.4 1,138.4 1,144.7 1,143.8 1,146.0 1,149.9 1,152.6 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits. 538.0 565.9 581.2 584.4 583.7 585.1 586.6 588.2 Government unemployment insurance benefits............ 21.9 19.9 19.5 19.7 19.5 19.3 19.5 19.6 Other........................... 508.0 524.6 537.7 540.6 540.5 541.7 543.8 544.8 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance................ 306.3 326.2 341.2 342.2 343.6 345.5 346.2 348.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2. -- The Disposition of Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1996 1997 Feb. 98 Mar. 98 Apr. 98r May 98r June 98r July 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 6,425.2 6,784.0 7,007.3 7,033.9 7,054.5 7,084.9 7,103.0 7,137.2 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments........................... 890.5 989.0 1,069.4 1,072.4 1,077.4 1,089.1 1,095.7 1,102.4 Equals: Disposable personal income... 5,534.7 5,795.1 5,937.9 5,961.5 5,977.1 5,995.8 6,007.3 6,034.8 Less: Personal outlays............... 5,376.2 5,674.1 5,870.0 5,884.7 5,914.7 5,964.1 6,002.3 5,989.2 Personal consumption expenditures... 5,215.7 5,493.7 5,682.7 5,697.5 5,724.2 5,775.7 5,812.1 5,798.3 Interest paid by persons............ 143.6 161.5 168.1 168.0 170.2 168.2 169.9 170.7 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 16.9 18.9 19.2 19.2 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 Equals: Personal saving.............. 158.5 121.0 67.9 76.8 62.5 31.6 5.1 45.5 Addenda: Disposable personal income: Chained (1992) dollars 1/........... 5,043.0 5,183.1 5,287.0 5,309.5 5,316.9 5,323.1 5,335.8 5,349.3 Per capita: Current dollars................... 20,840 21,633 22,049 22,122 22,165 22,218 22,244 22,327 Chained (1992) dollars............ 18,989 19,349 19,632 19,703 19,717 19,725 19,757 19,791 Population (thousands).............. 265,579 267,880 269,302 269,482 269,669 269,862 270,069 270,287 Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income ......... 2.9 2.1 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. 1/ Disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars equals the current-dollar figure divided by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 3. -- Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1996 1997 Feb. 98 Mar. 98 Apr. 98r May 98r June 98r July 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 353.1 358.8 36.8 26.6 20.6 30.4 18.1 34.2 Wage and salary disbursements........ 202.6 258.7 26.4 12.9 18.3 26.8 6.9 24.6 Private industries................ 184.4 235.5 23.6 11.4 16.1 24.6 4.4 22.9 Goods-producing industries...... 45.1 66.0 3.5 -0.1 2.7 2.7 -4.5 -0.2 Manufacturing................. 26.7 44.9 2.1 1.0 -1.0 2.4 -5.1 -3.8 Distributive industries......... 40.4 56.5 5.5 -0.3 5.9 9.2 -1.1 8.4 Service industries.............. 99.0 112.9 14.7 11.8 7.4 12.8 10.1 14.6 Government........................ 18.2 23.3 2.8 1.4 2.3 2.0 2.5 1.8 Other labor income.................. -14.6 5.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj............................. 39.6 23.5 4.1 4.9 0.1 -0.9 3.8 4.5 Farm.............................. 16.5 -3.4 -0.9 -0.7 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -1.4 Nonfarm........................... 23.2 27.0 5.0 5.6 0.6 -0.5 4.2 5.9 Rental income of persons with CCAdj............................. 16.5 8.0 0.1 -0.1 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.8 Personal dividend income............ 55.4 12.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Personal interest income............ 14.5 27.9 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 Transfer payments to persons........ 52.1 42.4 4.6 6.3 -0.9 2.2 3.9 2.7 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits... 30.2 27.9 1.9 3.2 -0.7 1.4 1.5 1.6 Government unemployment insurance benefits.............. 0.5 -2.0 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.1 Other............................. 21.4 16.6 2.8 2.9 -0.1 1.2 2.1 1.0 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance.................. 12.7 19.9 1.9 1.0 1.4 1.9 0.7 1.8 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments............................ 95.5 98.5 10.7 3.0 5.0 11.7 6.6 6.7 Equals: Disposable personal income.... 257.6 260.4 26.1 23.6 15.6 18.7 11.5 27.5 Less: Personal outlays................ 279.0 297.9 32.7 14.7 30.0 49.4 38.2 -13.1 Personal consumption expenditures... 261.8 278.0 33.4 14.8 26.7 51.5 36.4 -13.8 Interest paid by persons............ 16.0 17.9 -0.7 -0.1 2.2 -2.0 1.7 0.8 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 1.2 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Equals: Personal saving............... -21.3 -37.5 -6.6 8.9 -14.3 -30.9 -26.5 40.4 Addendum: Disposable personal income, chained (1992) dollars.......... 136.9 140.1 22.1 22.5 7.4 6.2 12.7 13.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 4. -- Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1997 Feb. 98 Mar. 98 Apr. 98r May 98r June 98r July 98p ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 5,215.7 5,493.7 5,682.7 5,697.5 5,724.2 5,775.7 5,812.1 5,798.3 Durable goods....................... 643.3 673.0 708.2 697.6 698.6 724.3 736.7 698.3 Nondurable goods.................... 1,539.2 1,600.6 1,636.7 1,638.8 1,646.8 1,657.6 1,657.6 1,663.7 Services............................ 3,033.2 3,220.1 3,337.8 3,361.0 3,378.8 3,393.7 3,417.8 3,436.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 4,752.4 4,913.5 5,059.7 5,074.3 5,091.9 5,127.7 5,162.3 5,139.6 Durable goods....................... 626.1 668.6 713.1 703.8 704.2 734.0 749.1 708.9 Nondurable goods.................... 1,450.9 1,486.3 1,523.7 1,531.4 1,536.8 1,540.4 1,542.0 1,545.0 Services............................ 2,676.7 2,761.5 2,829.0 2,843.8 2,855.1 2,861.0 2,879.8 2,889.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Implicit price deflators (Index numbers, 1992 = 100) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 109.75 111.81 112.31 112.28 112.42 112.64 112.59 112.81 Durable goods....................... 102.75 100.66 99.31 99.12 99.20 98.68 98.33 98.50 Nondurable goods.................... 106.08 107.69 107.42 107.02 107.16 107.61 107.49 107.68 Services............................ 113.32 116.61 117.98 118.19 118.34 118.62 118.68 118.94 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change from preceding period ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 261.8 278.0 33.4 14.8 26.7 51.5 36.4 -13.8 Durable goods....................... 32.3 29.7 -1.4 -10.6 1.0 25.7 12.4 -38.4 Nondurable goods.................... 65.6 61.4 12.9 2.1 8.0 10.8 0.0 6.1 Services............................ 164.0 186.9 21.9 23.2 17.8 14.9 24.1 18.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 146.8 161.1 28.6 14.6 17.6 35.8 34.6 -22.7 Durable goods....................... 37.0 42.5 -0.7 -9.3 0.4 29.8 15.1 -40.2 Nondurable goods.................... 33.3 35.4 15.1 7.7 5.4 3.6 1.6 3.0 Services............................ 77.1 84.8 14.1 14.8 11.3 5.9 18.8 9.3 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 5. -- Percent Change From Preceding Period in Selected Series -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1997 Feb. 98 Mar. 98 Apr. 98r May 98r June 98r July 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on current dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 5.8 5.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 Disposable personal income............ 4.9 4.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 Personal consumption expenditures..... 5.3 5.3 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.6 -0.2 Durable goods....................... 5.3 4.6 -0.2 -1.5 0.1 3.7 1.7 -5.2 Nondurable goods.................... 4.4 4.0 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.4 Services............................ 5.7 6.2 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on chained (1992) dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disposable personal income............ 2.8 2.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 Personal consumption expenditures..... 3.2 3.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 -0.4 Durable goods....................... 6.3 6.8 -0.1 -1.3 0.1 4.2 2.1 -5.4 Nondurable goods.................... 2.4 2.4 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 Services............................ 3.0 3.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.