FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EST, MONDAY, MARCH 2, 1998 James E. Rankin: (202) 606-5301 (Personal Income) BEA 98-5 Greg Key: 606-5302 (Personal Outlays) Recorded message: 606-5303 PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: JANUARY 1998 Personal income increased $41.2 billion, or 0.6 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $47.6 billion, or 0.8 percent, in January, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $21.0 billion, or 0.4 percent. In December, personal income increased $30.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, DPI increased $25.3 billion, or 0.4 percent, and PCE increased $22.7 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates. 1997 1998 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. (Percent change from preceding month) Personal income, current dollars 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 Disposable personal income: Current dollars .3 .4 .6 .4 .8 Chained (1992) dollars .2 .3 .5 .4 .7 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars .2 .5 .4 .4 .4 Chained (1992) dollars .0 .4 .3 .4 .3 The January increase in personal income was affected by a number of special factors. The January increase was boosted by cost-of-living adjustments to federal transfer payment programs and by pay raises for federal civilian and military personnel. The January increase was reduced by program changes affecting personal contributions for social insurance and by lump-sum social security benefits payments that had boosted December personal income. Excluding these special factors, personal income increased $35.2 billion, or 0.5 percent, in January. Wages and salaries Private wage and salary disbursements increased $22.2 billion in January, compared with an increase of $15.2 billion in December. In January, employment, average weekly hours, and average hourly earnings all increased. Goods- producing industries' payrolls increased $3.3 billion in January, compared with an increase of $6.5 billion in December; manufacturing payrolls increased $0.1 billion, compared with an increase of $3.5 billion. Distributive industries' payrolls increased $9.3 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $0.1 billion. Service industries' payrolls increased $9.7 billion, compared with an increase of $8.7 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $4.3 billion in January, compared with an increase of $1.6 billion in December. Pay raises for federal civilian and military personnel added $3.1 billion to government payrolls in January. Other personal income Transfer payments increased $8.9 billion in January, compared with an increase of $7.0 billion in December. The January increase was boosted by 2.1-percent cost-of-living adjustments to social security benefits and several other transfer programs. The cost-of-living adjustments added $7.5 billion to January transfer payments. The January increase was reduced by lump-sum social security benefits, which had added $3.4 billion to December; these payments result from a recalculation of the earnings base underlying the benefits. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $4.2 billion in January, compared with an increase of $2.0 billion in December. Personal interest income increased $2.6 billion in January, the same as in December. Personal dividend income increased $2.1 billion in January, the same as in December. Personal contributions for social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income -- increased $4.0 billion in January, compared with an increase of $1.1 billion in December. The January increase reflected the effect of an increase in social security taxable wage bases for employees and for the self-employed (from $65,400 to $68,400). Personal taxes and disposable personal income Personal tax and nontax payments decreased $6.5 billion in January, in contrast to an increase of $4.9 billion in December. In January, federal income tax payments were reduced by $13.0 billion, reflecting the provisions of the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 and the indexation provisions of the tax law. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal tax and nontax payments -- increased $47.6 billion, or 0.8 percent, in January, compared with an increase of $25.3 billion, or 0.4 percent, in December. Personal outlays and personal saving Personal outlays -- PCE, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net) -- increased $22.4 billion in January, compared with an increase of $25.6 billion in December. PCE increased $21.0 billion, compared with an increase of $22.7 billion. Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $257.5 billion in January, compared with $232.3 billion in December. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 4.2 percent in January, compared with 3.9 percent in December. Chained (1992) dollar estimates Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.7 percent in January, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in December. Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.3 percent in January, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in December. Purchases of durable goods increased 0.7 percent, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent. Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.5 percent in January, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent in December. Purchases of services increased 0.2 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent. Revisions Estimates have been revised for October through December. Changes in personal income, current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar PCE for November and December -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below. Revisions for October were also small. Change from preceding month November December Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised (Dollars) (Percent) (Dollars) (Percent) Personal income: Current dollars . . 51.2 50.8 0.7 0.7 30.3 30.1 0.4 0.4 Disposable personal income: Current dollars . . 40.9 38.6 .7 .6 27.6 25.3 .5 .4 Chained (1992) dollars 29.9 27.8 .6 .5 23.3 21.5 .4 .4 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars . . 21.8 24.1 .4 .4 17.1 22.7 .3 .4 Chained (1992) dollars 13.4 15.4 .3 .3 14.2 19.2 .3 .4 BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; selected articles from the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available on BEA's web site: http://www.bea.gov STAT-USA maintains an electronic bulletin board (EBB) and an Internet site, which contain BEA estimates, BEA news releases, and the Survey of Current Business. The information available through STAT-USA is often more detailed and more timely than that available from other sources. To subscribe to STAT-USA's World Wide Web system, go to http://www.stat-usa.gov. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT-USA's Internet information are $50.00 for 3 months or $150.00 for 1 year. For further information, call (202) 482-1986. Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers: (202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product 606-5303 Personal income and outlays 606-5362 Summary of international transactions Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The printed Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C. 20402. First class mail: Annual subscription $69.00 domestic. Second class mail: Annual subscription $35.00 domestic, $43.75 foreign; single issue $11.00 domestic, $13.75 foreign. * * * Next release -- Personal Income and Outlays for February will be released on March 27, 1998, at 8:30 A.M. EST. Table 1. -- Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ----------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1997 Aug. 97 Sep. 97 Oct. 97r Nov. 97r Dec. 97r Jan. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income..................... 6,495.2 6,874.2 6,912.2 6,935.5 6,970.7 7,021.5 7,051.6 7,092.8 Wage and salary disbursements..... 3,632.5 3,877.3 3,902.3 3,916.1 3,943.6 3,990.0 4,006.7 4,033.3 Private industries.............. 2,989.9 3,212.0 3,234.5 3,246.2 3,271.7 3,316.0 3,331.2 3,353.4 Goods-producing industries.... 909.1 960.2 962.0 966.6 975.4 984.9 991.4 994.7 Manufacturing............... 674.7 705.9 706.5 710.0 717.8 724.4 727.9 728.0 Distributive industries....... 823.3 876.2 883.7 886.4 893.1 904.1 904.0 913.3 Service industries............ 1,257.5 1,375.5 1,388.9 1,393.3 1,403.1 1,427.0 1,435.7 1,445.4 Government...................... 642.6 665.3 667.8 669.8 671.9 673.9 675.5 679.8 Other labor income................ 407.6 416.6 417.6 418.9 420.1 421.4 422.6 423.9 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj........................... 520.3 544.5 546.1 548.7 551.5 551.9 553.9 558.1 Farm............................ 37.2 40.7 40.8 39.0 38.5 38.1 38.1 38.1 Nonfarm......................... 483.1 503.7 505.3 509.6 513.0 513.8 515.8 520.0 Rental income of persons with CCAdj........................... 146.3 148.0 148.5 148.2 146.8 146.3 146.2 145.6 Personal dividend income.......... 291.2 321.5 324.5 326.6 328.6 330.7 332.8 334.9 Personal interest income.......... 735.7 768.8 772.5 774.3 776.6 779.3 781.9 784.5 Transfer payments to persons...... 1,068.0 1,121.1 1,125.9 1,129.0 1,131.4 1,132.8 1,139.8 1,148.7 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits. 537.6 566.7 570.4 570.4 571.9 572.7 577.8 582.6 Government unemployment insurance benefits............ 22.0 21.7 21.4 21.6 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.5 Other........................... 508.4 532.7 534.1 537.0 538.0 538.8 540.5 544.6 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance................ 306.3 323.7 325.2 326.1 327.9 331.0 332.1 336.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2. -- The Disposition of Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1996 1997 Aug. 97 Sep. 97 Oct. 97r Nov. 97r Dec. 97r Jan. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 6,495.2 6,874.2 6,912.2 6,935.5 6,970.7 7,021.5 7,051.6 7,092.8 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments........................... 886.9 988.7 999.3 1,003.5 1,012.1 1,024.3 1,029.2 1,022.7 Equals: Disposable personal income... 5,608.3 5,885.5 5,913.0 5,932.0 5,958.6 5,997.2 6,022.5 6,070.1 Less: Personal outlays............... 5,368.8 5,660.8 5,699.3 5,712.6 5,740.0 5,764.6 5,790.2 5,812.6 Personal consumption expenditures... 5,207.6 5,488.1 5,525.8 5,537.8 5,563.6 5,587.7 5,610.4 5,631.4 Interest paid by persons............ 145.2 154.8 155.2 156.6 157.8 158.4 161.3 162.6 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 15.9 17.9 18.2 18.2 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 Equals: Personal saving.............. 239.6 224.7 213.7 219.4 218.7 232.6 232.3 257.5 Addenda: Disposable personal income: Chained (1992) dollars 1/........... 5,076.9 5,221.9 5,239.8 5,247.8 5,265.9 5,293.7 5,315.2 5,353.8 Per capita: Current dollars................... 21,117 21,972 22,049 22,102 22,185 22,313 22,393 22,557 Chained (1992) dollars............ 19,116 19,494 19,539 19,553 19,606 19,696 19,763 19,896 Population (thousands).............. 265,579 267,869 268,171 268,391 268,594 268,775 268,942 269,098 Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income ......... 4.3 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. 1/ Disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars equals the current-dollar figure divided by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 3. -- Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1996 1997 Aug. 97 Sep. 97 Oct. 97r Nov. 97r Dec. 97r Jan. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 344.4 379.0 39.1 23.3 35.2 50.8 30.1 41.2 Wage and salary disbursements........ 203.0 244.8 32.3 13.8 27.5 46.4 16.7 26.6 Private industries................ 183.4 222.1 29.9 11.7 25.5 44.3 15.2 22.2 Goods-producing industries...... 44.7 51.1 6.5 4.6 8.8 9.5 6.5 3.3 Manufacturing................. 26.3 31.2 5.0 3.5 7.8 6.6 3.5 0.1 Distributive industries......... 40.2 52.9 11.5 2.7 6.7 11.0 -0.1 9.3 Service industries.............. 98.5 118.0 12.1 4.4 9.8 23.9 8.7 9.7 Government........................ 19.6 22.7 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.6 4.3 Other labor income.................. 0.8 9.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj............................. 31.4 24.2 -0.7 2.6 2.8 0.4 2.0 4.2 Farm.............................. 13.8 3.5 -2.2 -1.8 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.0 Nonfarm........................... 17.6 20.6 1.4 4.3 3.4 0.8 2.0 4.2 Rental income of persons with CCAdj............................. 13.5 1.7 1.1 -0.3 -1.4 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6 Personal dividend income............ 39.3 30.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 Personal interest income............ 16.8 33.1 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.6 Transfer payments to persons........ 53.0 53.1 3.8 3.1 2.4 1.4 7.0 8.9 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits... 29.8 29.1 3.1 0.0 1.5 0.8 5.1 4.8 Government unemployment insurance benefits.............. 0.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 Other............................. 22.7 24.3 1.0 2.9 1.0 0.8 1.7 4.1 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance.................. 13.2 17.4 2.1 0.9 1.8 3.1 1.1 4.0 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments............................ 91.8 101.8 8.1 4.2 8.6 12.2 4.9 -6.5 Equals: Disposable personal income.... 252.6 277.2 31.1 19.0 26.6 38.6 25.3 47.6 Less: Personal outlays................ 267.7 292.0 8.9 13.3 27.4 24.6 25.6 22.4 Personal consumption expenditures... 249.9 280.5 7.1 12.0 25.8 24.1 22.7 21.0 Interest paid by persons............ 16.7 9.6 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.6 2.9 1.3 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 1.1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Equals: Personal saving............... -15.0 -14.9 22.3 5.7 -0.7 13.9 -0.3 25.2 Addenda: Disposable personal income, chained (1992) dollars.......... 112.7 145.0 25.0 8.0 18.1 27.8 21.5 38.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 4. -- Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1997 Aug. 97 Sep. 97 Oct. 97r Nov. 97r Dec. 97r Jan. 98p ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 5,207.6 5,488.1 5,525.8 5,537.8 5,563.6 5,587.7 5,610.4 5,631.4 Durable goods....................... 634.5 659.1 670.5 660.7 655.3 669.9 673.6 676.8 Nondurable goods.................... 1,534.7 1,592.1 1,599.8 1,604.9 1,604.5 1,601.0 1,598.8 1,604.9 Services............................ 3,038.4 3,236.9 3,255.5 3,272.2 3,303.9 3,316.8 3,338.0 3,349.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 4,714.1 4,869.3 4,896.8 4,899.0 4,916.9 4,932.3 4,951.5 4,967.0 Durable goods....................... 611.1 645.5 659.9 650.9 647.2 663.0 666.6 671.0 Nondurable goods.................... 1,432.3 1,458.8 1,464.8 1,465.6 1,464.3 1,461.5 1,459.7 1,467.0 Services............................ 2,671.0 2,765.7 2,774.1 2,783.2 2,804.7 2,808.5 2,825.5 2,829.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Implicit price deflators (Index numbers, 1992 = 100) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 110.47 112.71 112.85 113.04 113.15 113.29 113.31 113.38 Durable goods....................... 103.83 102.12 101.61 101.51 101.24 101.04 101.05 100.86 Nondurable goods.................... 107.15 109.14 109.22 109.51 109.57 109.55 109.52 109.40 Services............................ 113.76 117.04 117.35 117.57 117.80 118.10 118.14 118.37 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change from preceding period ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 249.9 280.5 7.1 12.0 25.8 24.1 22.7 21.0 Durable goods....................... 26.0 24.6 -0.3 -9.8 -5.4 14.6 3.7 3.2 Nondurable goods.................... 58.9 57.4 2.2 5.1 -0.4 -3.5 -2.2 6.1 Services............................ 165.0 198.5 5.2 16.7 31.7 12.9 21.2 11.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 118.8 155.2 4.0 2.2 17.9 15.4 19.2 15.5 Durable goods....................... 27.5 34.4 2.2 -9.0 -3.7 15.8 3.6 4.4 Nondurable goods.................... 19.7 26.5 -1.2 0.8 -1.3 -2.8 -1.8 7.3 Services............................ 71.4 94.7 3.1 9.1 21.5 3.8 17.0 4.4 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 5. -- Percent Change From Preceding Period in Selected Series -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1997 Aug. 97 Sep. 97 Oct. 97r Nov. 97r Dec. 97r Jan. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on current dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 5.6 5.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 Disposable personal income............ 4.7 4.9 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.8 Personal consumption expenditures..... 5.0 5.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Durable goods....................... 4.3 3.9 -0.1 -1.5 -0.8 2.2 0.6 0.5 Nondurable goods.................... 4.0 3.7 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 Services............................ 5.7 6.5 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on chained (1992) dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disposable personal income............ 2.3 2.9 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 Personal consumption expenditures..... 2.6 3.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 Durable goods....................... 4.7 5.6 0.3 -1.4 -0.6 2.4 0.5 0.7 Nondurable goods.................... 1.4 1.8 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 Services............................ 2.7 3.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.