FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EST, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31, 1997 Virginia H. Mannering: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) BEA 97-33 Recorded message: 606-5306 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: THIRD QUARTER 1997 (ADVANCE) Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 1997, according to advance estimates released by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.3 percent. Real GDP increased $62.2 billion in the third quarter, following an increase of $58.0 billion in the second. The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter estimates are based on preliminary and incomplete source data. Information on the assumptions used for missing source data is available on request. Revised estimates based on more comprehensive data will be issued next month. The increase in third-quarter real GDP was more than accounted for by increases in personal consumption expenditures, in producers' durable equipment, and in exports of goods and services. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.2 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the second. Excluding food and energy prices, the index increased 1.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent in the second. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 5.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent in the second. Durable goods purchases increased 16.7 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 5.4 percent. Nondurable goods increased 4.7 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 2.1 percent. Services expenditures increased 4.1 percent, compared with an increase of 3.9 percent. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 18.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 14.6 percent in the second. Nonresidential structures increased 10.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 4.7 percent. Producers' durable equipment increased 22.1 percent, compared with an increase of 23.0 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 7.4 percent. Real exports of goods and services increased 5.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 18.4 percent in the second. Real imports of goods and services increased 14.0 percent, compared with an increase of 20.5 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 1.2 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of 6.6 percent in the second. National defense increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 7.5 percent. Nondefense decreased 5.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 4.9 percent. Real state and local government increased 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent. The real change in business inventories subtracted 1.3 percentage points from the third-quarter change in real GDP, after adding 0.8 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Businesses increased inventories $51.5 billion in the third quarter, following increases of $77.6 billion in the second quarter and $63.7 billion in the first. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in business inventories -- increased 5.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the second. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 4.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent in the second. Disposition of personal income Current-dollar personal income increased $80.7 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $82.9 billion in the second. Personal tax and nontax payments increased $18.2 billion, compared with an increase of $23.5 billion. Disposable personal income increased $62.5 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $59.4 billion in the second. Real disposable personal income increased $37.0 billion, compared with an increase of $39.8 billion. Personal outlays increased $98.4 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $28.2 billion in the second. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $211.1 billion in the third quarter, compared with $247.0 billion in the second. The saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- decreased from 4.2 percent in the second quarter to 3.6 percent in the third. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 4.9 percent, or $97.4 billion, in the third quarter. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 5.2 percent, or $100.7 billion. * * * BEA estimates are available in several forms in addition to the printed news releases. News releases are available at the time of public release through three subscription services offered by the Commerce Department's STAT-USA. Information on how to receive releases by FAX may be obtained by calling (202) 482-1986 (voice). Information about the Economic Bulletin Board (EBB) and about Internet services may be obtained at the voice number above or on-line, as follows: EBB (202) 482-3870 Internet http://www.stat-usa.gov In addition, BEA's most frequently requested statistical series are available on the Internet, as follows: þ The Federal Statistics Briefing Room (FSBR) on the White House web site provides summary statistics for GDP and other major aggregates on its output, income, and international statistics pages. http://www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr þ The FSBR provides links to BEA's web site, which provides summary tables and charts on BEA's national, international, and regional data. http://www.bea.gov þ BEA's web site provides links to detailed BEA databases on STAT-USA's Internet subscription service. http://www.stat-usa.gov Summary estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers: (202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product 5303 Personal income and outlays 5362 Summary of international transactions Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. First class mail: Annual subscription $69.00 domestic. Second class mail: annual subscription $35.00 domestic, $43.75 foreign; single issue $11.00 domestic, $13.75 foreign. In addition, the Survey of Current Business is now available on the Internet in a searchable, retrievable electronic format at least a week before the printed version. To subscribe to STAT-USA's World Wide Web system, go to http://www.stat-usa.gov. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT- USA's Internet information are $50.00 for 3 months or $150.00 for 1 year. For further information, call (202) 482-1986. * * * Next release -- November 26, 1997, at 8:30 A.M. EST for: Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 1997 (Preliminary) Corporate Profits: Third Quarter 1997 Measures of Revision Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: Advance estimates, based on preliminary and incomplete source data and BEA assumptions about the missing source data, are released in the first month after the end of the quarter; preliminary and final estimates, which incorporate additional and revised source data, are released in the second and third months, respectively. Additional revisions are carried out in each of the following 3 years, usually in July, and in comprehensive (benchmark) revisions, usually every 5 years. The latest estimates, which reflect the results of these revisions, are based on new and revised source data and also reflect improved estimating procedures, and definitional or classificational changes. The table below provides summary measures of the amount of revision in past years in quarterly percent changes in current-dollar GDP and real GDP. These measures can be used to assess the likely size of future revisions. For example, two-thirds of the revisions between the quarterly change in the advance estimate of real GDP and that in the final estimate were within a range of -0.7 to +0.8 percentage point. Thus, based on past experience, it is likely that the third- quarter change in real GDP now estimated at 3.5 percent at an annual rate, will not be revised below 2.8 percent or above 4.3 percent in the next two releases. Revision in Quarter-to-Quarter Percent Changes at Annual Rate ____________________________________________________________________________________ Range Average _________________________________ Quarterly estimates without Two-thirds Nine-tenths compared regard of to revisions sign ______________________ ______________ _____________ ____________ Current-dollar GDP Advance to final....... 0.7 -0.7 to 1.0 -1.2 to 1.4 Preliminary to final... .3 - .4 to .3 - .6 to .7 Advance to latest...... 1.1 - .7 to 1.6 -2.1 to 3.1 Preliminary to latest.. 1.0 - .9 to 1.6 -2.1 to 2.7 Final to latest........ 1.1 - .8 to 1.5 -2.1 to 2.7 Real GDP Advance to final....... 0.6 -0.7 to 0.8 -1.1 to 1.2 Preliminary to final... .3 - .4 to .3 - .5 to .6 Advance to latest...... 1.1 -1.0 to 1.3 -1.9 to 2.7 Preliminary to latest.. 1.2 -1.0 to 1.3 -2.3 to 2.9 Final to latest........ 1.2 -1.5 to 1.6 -2.2 to 2.7 ____________________________________________________________________________________ NOTE.--These measures are based on the period from 1983 through 1994. Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Prices: Change From Preceding Period ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real gross domestic product (GDP)..... 221.1 131.4 186.3 17.8 73.6 84.2 58.0 62.2 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 142.4 109.3 118.8 6.0 38.2 61.7 11.3 67.7 Durable goods............................ 37.4 22.4 27.5 -2.9 5.2 20.7 -8.8 24.8 Nondurable goods......................... 38.9 22.7 19.7 2.3 7.3 16.6 -7.8 16.8 Services................................. 66.6 64.1 71.4 6.3 25.4 25.7 25.9 28.0 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 72.7 46.6 79.6 25.2 7.8 10.3 32.4 37.2 Nonresidential........................... 48.2 58.1 65.2 29.6 11.5 8.1 28.1 36.7 Structures............................. 1.7 7.4 8.8 4.4 6.9 -1.0 -2.4 4.7 Producers' durable equipment........... 47.2 51.5 57.7 25.8 3.8 9.9 32.7 33.3 Residential.............................. 24.4 -10.0 15.1 -3.1 -3.0 2.2 4.9 2.0 Change in business inventories............. 38.5 -33.3 -2.3 16.6 -5.0 30.8 13.9 -26.1 Net exports of goods and services.......... -34.4 5.8 -15.6 -26.3 33.3 -20.7 -10.3 -23.4 Exports.................................. 54.2 78.8 65.8 4.0 49.7 21.6 39.8 13.2 Imports.................................. 88.6 73.1 81.4 30.2 16.4 42.3 50.2 36.5 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... .2 -.4 6.0 -3.6 .3 -1.3 9.6 3.2 Federal.................................. -19.1 -16.3 -6.1 -5.0 -6.1 -6.8 7.3 -1.3 National defense....................... -17.5 -14.3 -4.8 -3.8 -5.8 -9.7 5.5 .8 Nondefense............................. -1.7 -2.0 -1.4 -1.2 -.3 2.8 1.7 -2.1 State and local.......................... 19.3 15.9 12.1 1.5 6.4 5.4 2.4 4.4 Residual................................... .7 1.3 -1.9 -1.9 -.6 1.5 .4 -1.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change Real GDP............................. 3.5 2.0 2.8 1.0 4.3 4.9 3.3 3.5 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 3.3 2.4 2.6 .5 3.3 5.3 .9 5.7 Durable goods............................ 7.1 4.0 4.7 -1.9 3.5 14.1 -5.4 16.7 Nondurable goods......................... 2.9 1.6 1.4 .6 2.1 4.7 -2.1 4.7 Services................................. 2.7 2.5 2.7 1.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 8.6 5.1 8.3 10.1 3.0 3.9 12.6 14.1 Nonresidential........................... 8.0 9.0 9.2 16.5 5.9 4.1 14.6 18.7 Structures............................. 1.0 4.3 4.8 10.0 15.3 -2.1 -4.7 10.1 Producers' durable equipment........... 11.0 10.8 10.9 19.1 2.6 6.7 23.0 22.1 Residential.............................. 10.1 -3.8 5.9 -4.5 -4.3 3.3 7.4 2.8 Exports of goods and services.............. 8.2 11.1 8.3 1.9 25.5 9.9 18.4 5.6 Imports of goods and services.............. 12.2 8.9 9.1 13.2 6.8 17.9 20.5 14.0 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... .0 .0 .5 -1.1 .1 -.4 3.1 1.0 Federal.................................. -3.8 -3.3 -1.3 -4.2 -5.2 -5.8 6.6 -1.2 National defense....................... -4.9 -4.3 -1.5 -4.6 -7.1 -11.8 7.5 1.1 Nondefense............................. -1.1 -1.4 -.9 -3.2 -1.0 8.0 4.9 -5.5 State and local.......................... 2.6 2.1 1.6 .7 3.3 2.7 1.2 2.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDP price index (chain-type weights)....... 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.7 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.4 Less: Exports of goods and services........ 1.2 2.2 -1.8 -2.6 -4.3 -1.8 -.7 -1.8 Plus: Imports of goods and services........ .6 2.2 -2.2 -4.2 .0 -5.3 -7.6 -2.8 Equals: Gross domestic purchases........... 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.4 1.9 .8 1.2 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.5 3.0 2.2 1.0 1.4 Durable goods............................ 2.0 1.0 -.4 -.6 -1.0 -.7 -3.0 -2.9 Nondurable goods......................... 1.3 1.7 2.6 .9 3.7 2.4 .0 1.3 Services................................. 3.1 3.5 2.9 3.9 3.4 2.6 2.4 2.4 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 1.8 1.3 -.1 1.4 -.4 -.9 -.2 .3 Nonresidential........................... 1.2 .4 -1.0 -.3 -1.5 -2.0 -1.5 -.9 Structures............................. 3.6 4.2 2.3 3.9 2.5 2.8 3.9 4.0 Producers' durable equipment........... .3 -1.0 -2.3 -1.9 -3.0 -3.8 -3.5 -2.6 Residential.............................. 3.3 3.6 2.4 5.7 2.6 2.0 3.4 3.4 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... 2.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.5 3.5 1.4 1.4 Federal.................................. 2.3 3.3 3.4 2.1 2.5 4.9 1.3 .6 National defense....................... 1.8 3.1 3.9 2.1 2.8 4.3 1.1 .2 Nondefense............................. 3.3 3.9 2.3 2.2 1.7 6.1 1.5 1.3 State and local.......................... 2.3 3.2 3.2 3.6 2.5 2.7 1.5 1.9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 2.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Percent Change from Preceding Period ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product (GDP)............... 6,610.7 6,742.1 6,928.4 6,943.8 7,017.4 7,101.6 7,159.6 7,221.8 Less: Exports of goods and services........ 712.4 791.2 857.0 851.4 901.1 922.7 962.5 975.7 Plus: Imports of goods and services........ 817.0 890.1 971.5 990.2 1,006.6 1,048.9 1,099.1 1,135.6 Equals: Gross domestic purchases........... 6,712.7 6,837.5 7,037.7 7,075.3 7,118.4 7,220.9 7,286.9 7,368.8 Personal consumption expenditures........ 4,486.0 4,595.3 4,714.1 4,718.2 4,756.4 4,818.1 4,829.4 4,897.1 Gross private domestic fixed investment.. 915.5 962.1 1,041.7 1,060.9 1,068.7 1,079.0 1,111.4 1,148.6 Change in business inventories (CBI)..... 60.6 27.3 25.0 37.9 32.9 63.7 77.6 51.5 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................... 1,252.3 1,251.9 1,257.9 1,261.5 1,261.8 1,260.5 1,270.1 1,273.3 Less: Change in business inventories....... 60.6 27.3 25.0 37.9 32.9 63.7 77.6 51.5 Equals: Final sales to domestic purchasers................................ 6,653.2 6,808.1 7,010.2 7,036.4 7,082.7 7,153.1 7,204.7 7,310.9 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).................. 6,551.2 6,712.7 6,901.0 6,905.0 6,981.7 7,034.1 7,077.7 7,164.0 Gross national product (GNP)............. 6,619.1 6,748.7 6,932.0 6,940.2 7,023.1 7,091.8 7,144.4 ..... Current-dollar measures: GDP.................................... 6,947.0 7,265.4 7,636.0 7,676.0 7,792.9 7,933.6 8,034.3 8,131.7 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI)........................ 6,885.7 7,235.3 7,610.2 7,638.9 7,761.0 7,867.4 7,953.2 8,078.7 Gross domestic purchases............... 7,037.9 7,351.4 7,730.9 7,790.0 7,881.5 8,032.4 8,123.1 8,239.1 Final sales to domestic purchasers..... 6,976.6 7,321.3 7,705.0 7,752.8 7,849.6 7,966.3 8,042.0 8,186.0 GNP.................................... 6,955.2 7,270.6 7,637.7 7,669.1 7,796.1 7,919.2 8,013.6 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real measures: GDP...................................... 3.5 2.0 2.8 1.0 4.3 4.9 3.3 3.5 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 2.9 2.5 2.8 .2 4.5 3.0 2.5 5.0 Gross domestic purchases................. 3.9 1.9 2.9 2.4 2.5 5.9 3.7 4.6 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 3.3 2.3 3.0 1.5 2.7 4.0 2.9 6.0 GNP...................................... 3.3 2.0 2.7 .6 4.9 4.0 3.0 ..... Current-dollar measures: GDP...................................... 5.9 4.6 5.1 3.6 6.2 7.4 5.2 4.9 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 5.3 5.1 5.2 2.9 6.6 5.6 4.4 6.5 Gross domestic purchases................. 6.3 4.5 5.2 4.7 4.8 7.9 4.6 5.8 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 5.7 4.9 5.2 4.0 5.1 6.1 3.9 7.4 GNP...................................... 5.8 4.5 5.0 3.1 6.8 6.5 4.9 ..... Price indexes (chain-type weights): GDP...................................... 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.7 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.4 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.7 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.4 Gross domestic purchases................. 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.4 1.9 .8 1.2 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.0 .9 1.3 GNP...................................... 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.6 1.9 2.4 1.8 ..... Addenda: Implicit price deflators: GDP.................................... 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.6 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.4 Gross domestic purchases............... 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.9 .9 1.2 GNP.................................... 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.5 1.8 2.4 1.8 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and Disposition of Personal Income ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Seasonally adjusted at Seasonally adjusted at annual rates annual rates ----------------------------- ----------------------------- 1995 1996 III 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 1995 1996 III 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1992) dollars ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross domestic product............... 7265.4 7636.0 7676.0 7933.6 8034.3 8131.7 6742.1 6928.4 6943.8 7101.6 7159.6 7221.8 Personal consumption expenditures......... 4957.7 5207.6 5227.4 5405.7 5432.1 5527.7 4595.3 4714.1 4718.2 4818.1 4829.4 4897.1 Durable goods........................... 608.5 634.5 634.5 658.4 644.5 665.0 583.6 611.1 611.9 637.8 629.0 653.8 Motor vehicles and parts.............. 254.8 261.3 260.0 265.7 252.7 264.8 229.5 231.3 229.7 233.4 223.1 235.2 Furniture and household equipment..... 240.2 252.6 254.2 263.8 265.4 271.6 248.4 269.5 272.3 287.4 292.3 302.9 Other................................. 113.6 120.6 120.3 128.9 126.5 128.6 107.2 113.3 113.2 121.4 119.7 121.5 Nondurable goods........................ 1475.8 1534.7 1538.3 1587.4 1578.9 1602.3 1412.6 1432.3 1433.9 1457.8 1450.0 1466.8 Food.................................. 735.1 756.1 757.4 775.5 771.4 778.7 690.5 689.7 687.3 694.6 688.2 689.0 Clothing and shoes.................... 254.7 264.3 265.7 275.2 274.8 281.4 257.5 267.7 270.8 277.1 273.8 282.3 Gasoline and oil...................... 114.4 122.6 121.4 128.5 121.6 124.4 113.1 114.1 114.1 114.7 116.1 117.1 Fuel oil and coal..................... 10.2 11.6 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.3 10.5 10.6 10.6 9.4 10.1 10.8 Other................................. 361.3 380.1 382.7 397.1 400.0 406.4 341.3 351.2 352.5 363.7 363.4 369.9 Services................................ 2873.4 3038.4 3054.6 3159.9 3208.7 3260.5 2599.6 2671.0 2672.8 2723.9 2749.8 2777.8 Housing............................... 750.3 787.2 791.8 810.5 821.2 832.0 688.2 700.2 701.7 708.3 712.0 715.8 Household operation................... 300.7 315.9 313.4 320.8 326.7 330.7 282.9 289.6 285.8 288.0 294.2 297.5 Electricity and gas................. 119.5 125.3 122.8 124.9 127.2 128.5 115.0 117.8 114.8 113.8 117.8 118.8 Other household operation........... 181.2 190.6 190.6 195.9 199.5 202.2 167.8 171.7 170.9 174.0 176.2 178.5 Transportation........................ 203.1 218.4 219.7 228.9 233.4 237.9 185.2 194.6 195.4 199.3 200.9 204.0 Medical care.......................... 772.8 808.1 811.9 841.0 849.6 859.0 674.9 688.1 689.8 704.4 708.8 714.3 Other................................. 846.5 908.9 917.8 958.8 977.9 1000.8 769.1 799.4 800.8 824.3 834.5 846.8 Gross private domestic investment......... 1038.2 1116.5 1149.2 1193.6 1242.0 1253.6 991.5 1069.1 1100.3 1149.2 1197.1 1208.4 Fixed investment........................ 1008.1 1090.7 1112.0 1127.5 1160.8 1200.6 962.1 1041.7 1060.9 1079.0 1111.4 1148.6 Nonresidential........................ 723.0 781.4 798.6 811.3 836.3 871.1 706.5 771.7 789.3 808.9 837.0 873.7 Structures.......................... 200.6 215.2 217.7 227.4 226.8 234.6 179.9 188.7 190.0 195.9 193.5 198.2 Nonresidential buildings, including farm................... 143.8 159.8 162.5 174.0 172.1 179.3 128.8 140.0 141.7 150.1 147.1 151.7 Utilities......................... 33.2 33.3 32.7 32.0 33.7 33.4 30.0 29.3 28.7 27.5 28.7 28.2 Mining exploration, shafts, and wells............................ 16.3 16.1 16.5 16.1 15.6 16.1 14.3 13.9 14.1 13.6 13.0 13.3 Other structures.................. 7.3 6.2 6.0 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.7 5.5 5.4 4.6 4.7 5.0 Producers' durable equipment........ 522.4 566.2 580.9 583.9 609.5 636.5 528.3 586.0 602.9 616.6 649.3 682.6 Information processing and related equipment........................ 172.8 195.1 201.1 202.8 208.4 218.7 201.8 253.1 264.3 281.4 296.9 319.3 Computers and peripheral equipment...................... 65.6 78.7 80.9 81.8 84.5 87.5 102.8 160.8 170.0 195.8 216.1 238.4 Other........................... 107.2 116.3 120.3 121.0 123.9 131.2 107.0 116.3 120.3 121.5 124.4 131.5 Industrial equipment.............. 121.5 127.5 128.2 127.7 134.9 137.7 113.4 117.0 117.6 116.8 123.5 125.8 Transportation and related equipment........................ 125.7 134.5 140.0 137.7 147.1 157.3 118.9 125.0 129.5 127.5 136.0 144.5 Other............................. 102.4 109.1 111.5 115.7 119.1 122.7 97.0 100.8 102.8 106.1 109.1 112.6 Residential........................... 285.1 309.2 313.5 316.2 324.6 329.5 257.0 272.1 274.1 273.3 278.2 280.2 Stuctures........................... 277.8 301.7 305.9 308.3 316.7 321.5 250.0 265.0 266.9 265.9 270.8 272.6 Single family structures.......... 145.2 159.1 162.2 161.0 162.5 163.6 126.9 136.6 138.3 136.2 136.5 136.2 Multifamily structures............ 17.9 20.3 19.2 21.9 23.0 22.2 16.9 18.6 17.5 19.6 20.4 19.5 Other............................. 114.8 122.3 124.5 125.3 131.2 135.8 106.7 110.2 111.5 110.5 114.4 117.5 Producers' durable equipment........ 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.9 7.9 8.0 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.6 Change in business inventories.......... 30.1 25.9 37.1 66.1 81.1 53.0 27.3 25.0 37.9 63.7 77.6 51.5 Farm.................................. -7.9 2.9 5.8 3.9 6.2 7.8 -9.2 2.6 6.5 5.3 7.5 9.1 Nonfarm............................... 38.1 23.0 31.3 62.2 74.9 45.3 35.7 22.5 31.6 58.3 70.1 42.6 Manufacturing....................... 8.4 10.6 15.3 22.3 30.9 22.0 7.8 9.9 14.3 20.9 29.0 20.7 Durable goods..................... 5.8 10.2 14.4 12.9 19.1 16.9 5.5 9.7 13.8 12.3 18.2 16.2 Nondurable goods.................. 2.6 .4 .9 9.3 11.8 5.1 2.3 .4 .8 8.5 10.8 4.7 Wholesale trade..................... 13.4 3.3 -7.7 24.3 26.0 8.3 12.7 4.0 -5.0 22.9 24.6 7.9 Durable goods..................... 11.7 2.5 4.7 15.4 23.5 -2.8 11.3 2.4 4.5 14.8 22.7 -2.7 Nondurable goods.................. 1.7 .8 -12.4 8.9 2.4 11.1 1.5 1.6 -9.0 8.1 2.3 10.2 Retail trade........................ 9.3 4.1 21.2 .6 8.3 8.3 8.8 4.0 20.0 .6 7.7 7.8 Durable goods..................... 6.9 1.9 14.6 1.4 2.4 8.0 6.3 1.7 13.3 1.2 2.0 7.4 Motor vehicle dealers........... 4.6 -1.6 11.9 -2.9 -4.0 5.7 4.1 -1.4 10.6 -2.5 -3.7 5.2 Other........................... 2.3 3.5 2.7 4.2 6.4 2.3 2.2 3.3 2.5 3.9 5.9 2.2 Nondurable goods.................. 2.4 2.3 6.6 -.8 5.9 .2 2.3 2.3 6.5 -.7 5.8 .3 Other............................... 7.0 5.0 2.5 15.2 9.8 6.7 6.5 4.5 2.3 13.7 8.9 6.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and Disposition of Personal Income--Continued ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Seasonally adjusted at Seasonally adjusted at annual rates annual rates ----------------------------- ----------------------------- 1995 1996 III 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 1995 1996 III 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1992) dollars ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Net exports of goods and services......... -86.0 -94.8 -114.0 -98.8 -88.7 -107.3 -98.8 -114.4 -138.9 -126.3 -136.6 -160.0 Exports................................. 818.4 870.9 863.7 922.2 960.3 968.9 791.2 857.0 851.4 922.7 962.5 975.7 Goods................................. 583.9 617.5 609.7 656.2 690.0 694.6 573.9 628.4 623.0 686.2 725.8 735.7 Agricultural products............... 57.2 61.5 60.4 57.3 56.4 57.6 49.5 48.6 46.8 47.7 47.2 48.9 Nonagricultural products............ 526.6 556.0 549.3 598.9 633.5 637.1 524.6 581.3 578.1 641.6 682.8 690.8 Services.............................. 234.6 253.3 254.0 266.0 270.3 274.3 218.0 229.9 229.4 238.9 240.8 244.1 Imports................................. 904.5 965.7 977.6 1021.0 1049.0 1076.3 890.1 971.5 990.2 1048.9 1099.1 1135.6 Goods................................. 757.5 809.0 820.2 855.8 880.1 905.6 749.2 823.1 841.7 891.3 938.4 972.7 Petroleum and products.............. 56.2 72.7 76.2 76.7 71.0 69.2 59.3 63.8 67.5 62.2 68.1 68.0 Nonpetroleum products............... 701.4 736.3 743.9 779.1 809.1 836.5 688.6 757.8 772.3 829.7 870.3 905.0 Services.............................. 146.9 156.7 157.5 165.2 168.9 170.6 141.2 149.0 149.3 158.4 161.8 164.5 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment......................... 1355.5 1406.7 1413.5 1433.1 1449.0 1457.8 1251.9 1257.9 1261.5 1260.5 1270.1 1273.3 Federal................................. 509.6 520.0 521.6 516.1 526.1 525.3 470.3 464.2 465.7 452.8 460.1 458.8 National defense...................... 344.6 352.8 354.8 343.3 350.6 351.7 322.6 317.8 319.4 303.9 309.4 310.2 Consumption expenditures............ 298.6 305.7 309.3 306.4 311.3 312.0 280.6 275.5 278.1 270.3 273.9 274.0 Gross investment.................... 46.0 47.0 45.5 37.0 39.3 39.8 42.1 42.3 41.4 33.5 35.4 36.2 Nondefense............................ 165.0 167.3 166.8 172.8 175.5 173.6 147.5 146.1 146.0 148.5 150.2 148.1 Consumption expenditures............ 144.9 145.7 144.6 151.7 152.9 153.1 128.0 125.3 124.6 127.7 128.2 127.8 Gross investment.................... 20.1 21.5 22.1 21.1 22.6 20.5 19.4 21.0 21.6 20.8 22.2 20.3 State and local......................... 846.0 886.7 891.9 917.0 923.0 932.4 781.6 793.7 795.9 807.7 810.1 814.5 Consumption expenditures............ 698.6 730.9 735.9 751.7 757.4 766.4 646.0 653.6 655.7 661.1 664.3 668.5 Gross investment.................... 147.4 155.7 156.0 165.2 165.6 166.1 135.6 140.1 140.1 146.6 145.8 146.1 Residual.................................. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... -13.7 -44.3 -49.9 -62.7 -77.5 -87.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross domestic product.................... 7265.4 7636.0 7676.0 7933.6 8034.3 8131.7 6742.1 6928.4 6943.8 7101.6 7159.6 7221.8 Plus: Receipts of factor income from the rest of the world........................ 222.8 234.3 235.4 248.2 261.6 ..... 207.7 214.2 214.8 224.6 236.3 ..... Less: Payments of factor income to the rest of the world........................ 217.5 232.6 242.3 262.5 282.3 ..... 200.7 210.2 218.1 234.0 250.8 ..... Equals: Gross national product............ 7270.6 7637.7 7669.1 7919.2 8013.6 ..... 6748.7 6932.0 6940.2 7091.8 7144.4 ..... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Disposition of personal income Personal income........................... 6150.8 6495.2 6541.9 6746.2 6829.1 6909.8 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Wage and salary disbursements........... 3429.5 3632.5 3662.8 3791.5 3841.6 3896.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Other labor income...................... 406.8 407.6 408.4 412.3 415.1 418.0 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments............................ 489.0 520.3 523.8 534.6 543.6 547.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Farm.................................. 23.4 37.2 40.1 40.2 43.6 41.2 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Nonfarm............................... 465.5 483.1 483.7 494.4 500.0 506.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment................. 132.8 146.3 148.0 149.0 148.7 147.9 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Personal dividend income................ 251.9 291.2 292.0 312.5 318.3 324.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Personal interest income................ 718.9 735.7 742.7 757.2 766.1 775.6 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Transfer payments to persons............ 1015.0 1068.0 1072.4 1107.2 1117.0 1125.2 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Less: Personal contributions for social insurance.............................. 293.1 306.3 308.2 318.2 321.3 324.8 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Less: Personal tax and nontax payments.... 795.1 886.9 897.3 955.7 979.2 997.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Equals: Disposable personal income........ 5355.7 5608.3 5644.6 5790.5 5849.9 5912.4 4964.2 5076.9 5094.8 5161.1 5200.9 5237.9 Less: Personal outlays.................... 5101.1 5368.8 5390.6 5574.6 5602.8 5701.2 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Equals: Personal saving................... 254.6 239.6 254.0 215.9 247.0 211.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income............... 4.8 4.3 4.5 3.7 4.2 3.6 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 4.--Quantity and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product [Index numbers, 1992=100] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product: Chain-type quantity index...... 105.87 107.97 110.95 111.20 112.38 113.73 114.66 115.65 Chain-type price index......... 105.09 107.76 110.22 110.59 111.10 111.78 112.27 112.66 Implicit price deflator........ 105.09 107.76 110.21 110.54 111.05 111.71 112.22 112.60 Personal consumption expenditures: Chain-type quantity index................ 106.31 108.90 111.71 111.81 112.72 114.18 114.45 116.05 Chain-type price index................... 105.15 107.89 110.47 110.80 111.61 112.21 112.49 112.89 Durable goods: Chain-type quantity index.............. 114.87 119.46 125.09 125.25 126.32 130.55 128.75 133.83 Chain-type price index................. 103.27 104.27 103.83 103.72 103.45 103.27 102.50 101.75 Nondurable goods: Chain-type quantity index.............. 105.15 106.86 108.36 108.48 109.03 110.29 109.70 110.97 Chain-type price index................. 102.77 104.48 107.15 107.29 108.26 108.90 108.89 109.24 Services: Chain-type quantity index.............. 105.23 107.89 110.86 110.93 111.99 113.05 114.13 115.29 Chain-type price index................. 106.85 110.53 113.76 114.29 115.26 116.02 116.70 117.39 Gross private domestic fixed investment: Chain-type quantity index................ 116.86 122.81 132.97 135.42 136.41 137.73 141.86 146.62 Chain-type price index................... 103.40 104.78 104.70 104.85 104.75 104.52 104.47 104.55 Nonresidential: Chain-type quantity index.............. 116.22 126.65 138.33 141.48 143.54 145.00 150.03 156.62 Chain-type price index................. 101.89 102.33 101.26 101.21 100.82 100.31 99.93 99.72 Residential: Chain-type quantity index.............. 118.39 113.94 120.64 121.51 120.18 121.17 123.36 124.21 Chain-type price index................. 107.11 110.93 113.64 114.37 115.10 115.68 116.65 117.62 Exports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index................ 111.41 123.74 134.03 133.15 140.92 144.30 150.53 152.59 Chain-type price index................... 101.24 103.44 101.61 101.47 100.35 99.90 99.72 99.27 Imports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index................ 122.13 133.05 145.22 148.03 150.48 156.80 164.30 169.76 Chain-type price index................... 99.39 101.62 99.41 98.76 98.75 97.42 95.52 94.86 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Chain-type quantity index................ 99.09 99.06 99.54 99.83 99.85 99.74 100.50 100.75 Chain-type price index................... 104.85 108.28 111.83 112.07 112.76 113.74 114.14 114.54 Federal: Chain-type quantity index.............. 92.17 89.08 87.92 88.21 87.04 85.76 87.14 86.89 Chain-type price index................. 104.84 108.34 112.03 112.05 112.74 114.10 114.46 114.63 State and local: Chain-type quantity index.............. 104.06 106.23 107.88 108.17 109.04 109.78 110.10 110.70 Chain-type price index................. 104.85 108.24 111.71 112.07 112.77 113.54 113.95 114.49 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product: Chain-type quantity index.............. 105.03 107.62 110.64 110.70 111.93 112.77 113.47 114.86 Chain-type price index................. 105.11 107.79 110.28 110.65 111.17 111.85 112.37 112.77 Implicit price deflator................ 105.11 107.79 110.28 110.63 111.16 111.85 112.37 112.77 Gross domestic purchases: Chain-type quantity index.............. 106.99 108.98 112.17 112.77 113.46 115.09 116.14 117.45 Chain-type price index................. 104.85 107.52 109.86 110.15 110.79 111.32 111.55 111.89 Implicit price deflator................ 104.84 107.52 109.85 110.10 110.72 111.24 111.48 111.81 Gross national product: Chain-type quantity index.............. 105.81 107.88 110.81 110.95 112.27 113.37 114.21 ..... Chain-type price index................. 105.08 107.74 110.19 110.55 111.06 111.73 112.22 ..... Implicit price deflator................ 105.08 107.73 110.18 110.50 111.01 111.67 112.17 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 5a.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IV 93 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from preceding quarter (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Real gross domestic product..... 5.3 3.0 4.7 1.8 3.6 .9 .3 3.0 2.2 1.8 6.0 1.0 4.3 4.9 3.3 3.5 Personal consumption expenditures...... 2.9 3.8 3.0 2.3 3.2 1.5 2.9 2.6 1.8 3.1 3.7 .5 3.3 5.3 .9 5.7 Durable goods........................ 9.6 6.4 3.8 4.3 11.0 -3.0 3.9 9.3 2.0 4.8 9.7 -1.9 3.5 14.1 -5.4 16.7 Nondurable goods..................... 1.5 5.0 2.1 2.2 2.7 1.7 .9 .7 .7 1.7 2.6 .6 2.1 4.7 -2.1 4.7 Services............................. 2.3 2.7 3.3 2.0 1.9 2.4 3.7 2.2 2.3 3.5 3.1 1.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 Gross private domestic fixed investment 18.3 3.2 11.9 4.2 7.0 7.6 -.7 3.5 5.9 10.7 14.4 10.1 3.0 3.9 12.6 14.1 Nonresidential....................... 16.4 .4 9.9 7.7 12.6 14.2 5.7 1.6 4.9 11.7 13.0 16.5 5.9 4.1 14.6 18.7 Structures......................... 3.3 -14.8 21.1 -1.1 2.3 9.5 4.3 .7 -5.8 8.2 7.9 10.0 15.3 -2.1 -4.7 10.1 Producers' durable equipment....... 22.3 7.0 5.9 11.4 16.9 16.1 6.2 2.0 9.4 13.1 14.9 19.1 2.6 6.7 23.0 22.1 Residential.......................... 23.1 10.0 16.6 -3.1 -5.0 -7.0 -15.5 8.4 8.5 8.3 17.9 -4.5 -4.3 3.3 7.4 2.8 Change in business inventories......... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Exports of goods and services.......... 21.9 -1.8 17.7 10.6 14.7 7.2 9.3 13.5 11.5 1.7 9.6 1.9 25.5 9.9 18.4 5.6 Imports of goods and services.......... 17.7 7.6 19.0 13.1 9.9 10.0 7.7 2.3 2.4 13.1 14.1 13.2 6.8 17.9 20.5 14.0 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. 1.3 -4.0 .4 8.2 -3.8 .6 -.1 -.7 -5.4 1.8 7.2 -1.1 .1 -.4 3.1 1.0 Federal.............................. -.1 -10.7 -4.9 13.3 -11.3 -1.1 -4.5 -1.3 -16.4 7.5 8.8 -4.2 -5.2 -5.8 6.6 -1.2 National defense................... -.3 -16.7 1.0 13.8 -18.6 -1.1 -1.6 -4.0 -15.9 6.1 11.0 -4.6 -7.1 -11.8 7.5 1.1 Nondefense......................... .2 3.9 -16.6 12.2 6.5 -.9 -10.3 4.8 -17.5 10.5 4.3 -3.2 -1.0 8.0 4.9 -5.5 State and local...................... 2.3 .7 4.0 5.1 1.2 1.7 2.6 -.4 1.9 -1.4 6.3 .7 3.3 2.7 1.2 2.2 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 4.8 1.2 3.4 3.3 2.7 1.8 1.9 3.3 2.0 2.6 5.2 .2 4.5 3.0 2.5 5.0 Gross domestic purchases price index. 2.5 2.0 2.6 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.5 1.7 1.9 2.7 1.8 2.4 2.4 1.9 .8 1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contribution to change in GDP (percentage points at annual rates) Real gross domestic product..... 5.3 3.0 4.7 1.8 3.6 .9 .3 3.0 2.2 1.8 6.0 1.0 4.3 4.9 3.3 3.5 Personal consumption expenditures...... 2.0 2.6 2.0 1.6 2.2 1.0 1.9 1.8 1.2 2.1 2.5 .4 2.2 3.6 .6 3.8 Durable goods........................ .8 .5 .3 .3 .9 -.3 .3 .7 .2 .4 .8 -.2 .3 1.1 -.5 1.3 Nondurable goods..................... .3 1.0 .4 .5 .5 .3 .2 .1 .1 .4 .5 .1 .4 .9 -.4 .9 Services............................. .9 1.0 1.3 .8 .7 .9 1.4 .9 .9 1.4 1.2 .4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 Gross private domestic fixed investment 2.3 .4 1.5 .6 .9 1.0 -.1 .5 .8 1.4 1.9 1.4 .4 .6 1.7 1.9 Nonresidential....................... 1.4 .0 .9 .7 1.1 1.3 .6 .2 .5 1.1 1.3 1.6 .6 .4 1.4 1.8 Structures......................... .1 -.4 .5 .0 .1 .2 .1 .0 -.2 .2 .2 .3 .4 -.1 -.1 .3 Producers' durable equipment....... 1.3 .5 .4 .7 1.1 1.0 .4 .1 .6 .9 1.0 1.3 .2 .5 1.6 1.6 Residential.......................... .8 .4 .6 -.1 -.2 -.3 -.7 .3 .3 .3 .7 -.2 -.2 .1 .3 .1 Change in business inventories......... .6 1.8 1.4 -1.5 .9 -.8 -1.6 -.2 .3 -.8 .7 .8 -.2 1.8 .8 -1.3 Exports of goods and services.......... 2.0 -.2 1.7 1.0 1.4 .7 1.0 1.4 1.2 .2 1.1 .2 2.7 1.1 2.0 .7 Imports of goods and services.......... -1.8 -.8 -2.0 -1.4 -1.1 -1.1 -.9 -.2 -.3 -1.5 -1.7 -1.6 -.8 -2.1 -2.5 -1.7 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. .3 -.8 .1 1.5 -.7 .1 .0 -.1 -1.0 .3 1.3 -.2 .0 -.1 .6 .2 Federal.............................. .0 -.9 -.4 .9 -.9 -.1 -.3 -.1 -1.2 .5 .6 -.3 -.4 -.4 .4 -.1 National defense................... .0 -1.0 .0 .7 -1.0 -.1 -.1 -.2 -.8 .3 .5 -.2 -.3 -.6 .3 .0 Nondefense......................... .0 .1 -.4 .3 .1 .0 -.3 .1 -.4 .2 .1 -.1 .0 .2 .1 -.1 State and local...................... .3 .1 .5 .6 .1 .2 .3 .0 .2 -.2 .7 .1 .4 .3 .1 .3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 5b.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IV 93 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from quarter one year ago Real gross domestic product..... 2.4 3.1 3.8 3.7 3.3 2.7 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.8 3.2 2.7 3.2 4.0 3.4 4.0 Personal consumption expenditures...... 2.7 3.6 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.7 3.2 2.5 3.8 Durable goods........................ 7.4 9.2 7.0 6.0 6.3 3.9 3.9 5.2 3.0 5.0 6.4 3.6 3.9 6.2 2.3 6.9 Nondurable goods..................... 1.6 3.1 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.5 1.3 2.3 Services............................. 2.3 2.7 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.9 Gross private domestic fixed investment 9.3 9.0 9.9 9.3 6.6 7.7 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.8 8.6 10.2 9.5 7.7 7.3 8.3 Nonresidential....................... 9.9 8.4 7.8 8.5 7.6 11.1 10.0 8.4 6.5 5.9 7.7 11.4 11.7 9.8 10.2 10.7 Structures......................... 4.5 -1.0 2.4 1.3 1.1 7.6 3.7 4.1 2.0 1.7 2.6 4.9 10.3 7.6 4.3 4.3 Producers' durable equipment....... 12.2 12.4 10.0 11.5 10.2 12.5 12.6 10.1 8.3 7.6 9.7 14.1 12.2 10.6 12.5 13.2 Residential.......................... 7.8 10.2 15.0 11.2 4.2 .0 -7.8 -5.1 -1.9 1.9 10.7 7.3 3.9 2.7 .4 2.2 Exports of goods and services.......... 4.6 4.4 6.7 11.7 10.0 12.5 10.4 11.1 10.3 8.9 9.0 6.1 9.3 11.4 13.6 14.6 Imports of goods and services.......... 10.2 10.2 11.8 14.2 12.3 13.0 10.2 7.5 5.6 6.3 7.8 10.6 11.8 12.9 14.5 14.7 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. -1.4 -.7 -.8 1.4 .1 1.3 1.1 -1.0 -1.4 -1.2 .6 .5 2.0 1.4 .4 .9 Federal.............................. -6.1 -4.9 -5.3 -1.0 -3.9 -1.4 -1.3 -4.6 -6.0 -4.1 -.9 -1.6 1.5 -1.7 -2.3 -1.5 National defense................... -6.9 -6.7 -5.8 -1.2 -6.0 -1.9 -2.6 -6.6 -5.9 -4.2 -1.3 -1.4 1.1 -3.5 -4.3 -2.9 Nondefense......................... -4.3 -.7 -4.0 -.6 .9 -.3 1.5 -.2 -6.4 -3.8 -.1 -2.1 2.5 1.9 2.1 1.5 State and local...................... 2.0 2.3 2.3 3.0 2.7 3.0 2.6 1.3 1.4 .7 1.5 1.8 2.2 3.2 2.0 2.3 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.4 3.2 2.5 3.1 3.2 2.5 3.8 Gross domestic purchases price index. 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from preceding year Real gross domestic product..... 2.3 -2.1 4.0 7.0 3.6 3.1 2.9 3.8 3.4 1.2 -.9 2.7 2.3 3.5 2.0 2.8 Personal consumption expenditures...... 1.2 1.2 5.2 5.2 4.7 4.0 3.1 3.9 2.3 1.7 -.6 2.8 2.9 3.3 2.4 2.6 Durable goods........................ 1.2 -.1 14.7 14.5 9.7 9.0 1.5 6.3 2.6 -.6 -6.4 5.8 7.2 7.1 4.0 4.7 Nondurable goods..................... .9 .6 2.9 3.5 2.3 3.2 1.9 2.8 2.3 1.0 -1.0 1.5 2.2 2.9 1.6 1.4 Services............................. 1.5 1.9 4.7 4.1 5.0 3.2 4.2 4.0 2.3 2.6 .8 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.7 Gross private domestic fixed investment 1.9 -7.6 7.2 16.5 4.8 .7 -.7 2.4 1.7 -3.1 -8.0 5.7 7.6 8.6 5.1 8.3 Nonresidential....................... 5.3 -4.4 -1.7 17.3 6.2 -3.5 -1.1 4.4 4.0 -.6 -6.4 1.9 7.6 8.0 9.0 9.2 Structures......................... 7.9 -1.5 -10.4 14.3 7.3 -10.8 -3.6 .5 2.2 1.1 -10.7 -6.8 1.0 1.0 4.3 4.8 Producers' durable equipment....... 3.7 -6.4 4.6 19.2 5.5 1.0 .3 6.4 5.0 -1.5 -4.1 6.2 10.5 11.0 10.8 10.9 Residential.......................... -8.0 -18.2 41.1 14.6 1.4 12.0 .2 -2.0 -3.7 -9.3 -12.3 16.6 7.6 10.1 -3.8 5.9 Exports of goods and services.......... 1.2 -7.1 -2.6 8.3 2.7 7.4 11.0 15.9 11.7 8.5 6.3 6.6 2.9 8.2 11.1 8.3 Imports of goods and services.......... 2.6 -1.3 12.6 24.3 6.5 8.4 6.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 -.7 7.5 8.9 12.2 8.9 9.1 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. .7 1.3 2.8 3.1 6.1 5.1 2.7 1.3 2.8 3.0 .6 .5 -.9 .0 .0 .5 Federal.............................. 4.2 3.2 5.4 2.4 6.9 4.6 3.1 -1.8 1.3 2.0 -.5 -2.1 -4.2 -3.8 -3.3 -1.3 National defense................... 5.4 6.9 5.7 4.0 7.5 5.2 4.0 -.9 -1.0 .0 -1.0 -5.5 -5.7 -4.9 -4.3 -1.5 Nondefense......................... 1.1 -5.9 4.6 -2.2 5.1 2.8 .1 -4.9 9.2 8.0 1.1 7.2 -.7 -1.1 -1.4 -.9 State and local...................... -2.0 -.3 .7 3.8 5.3 5.5 2.4 3.9 4.0 3.8 1.4 2.4 1.5 2.6 2.1 1.6 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 1.1 -.9 3.7 5.0 4.6 3.5 2.6 4.1 3.0 1.6 -.7 2.5 2.1 2.9 2.5 2.8 Gross domestic purchases price index. 9.2 5.9 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.6 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.5 3.7 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Explanatory Note: Measures of Output and Prices Changes in current-dollar GDP measure changes in the market value of goods and services produced in the economy in a particular period. For many purposes, it is necessary to decompose these changes into quantity and price components. This note describes the indexes used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to estimate the quantity and price changes presented in this release and in the related tables that appear in the Survey of Current Business. To compute the quantity indexes, the quantities of individual goods and services are weighted by their prices. (Quantity changes for GDP are often referred to as changes in "real GDP.") For the price indexes, the prices for individual goods and services are weighted by quantities produced. (In practice, the current-dollar value and price indexes for most GDP components are determined largely using data from federal government surveys. The real values of these components are calculated by deflation at the most detailed level for which all the required data are available.) Except for the most recent period, the annual and quarterly changes in real GDP and prices are "chain-type" measures based on a "Fisher Ideal" formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent years. For example, the 1992-93 percent change in real GDP uses prices for 1992 and 1993 as weights, and the 1992-93 percent change in price uses quantities for 1992 and 1993 as weights. Because the quantity and price index numbers calculated in this way are symmetric, the product of the annual change in real GDP and the annual change in prices equals the annual change in current-dollar GDP. In the most recent period (currently, for quarters beginning with the third quarter of 1996), a variant of the standard quarterly formula is used because only one year's information is available for computing the index number weights. For this period, BEA uses weights from two adjacent quarters to calculate the change from the preceding quarter. BEA also publishes a second measure of the price level, known as the "implicit price deflator." The implicit price deflator is calculated as the ratio of current-dollar value to the corresponding chained-dollar value multiplied by 100. Its values are very similar to those of the "chain-type" price index. The quantity and price indexes and implicit price deflators for GDP and its major components are presented in this release as index numbers in table 4 and in the form of percentage changes from the preceding period in tables 1, 2, 5A and 5B. Table 5A also presents the contributions of the major components to the change in real GDP. In addition, BEA prepares measures of real GDP and its components in a dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (1992) dollar estimates." These estimates, which are presented in tables 2 and 3 of this release, are computed by multiplying the 1992 current-dollar value of GDP, or of a GDP component, by the corresponding quantity index number. For example, if a current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 1992 and if real output for this component increased by 10 percent in 1993, then the "chained (1992) dollar" value of this component in 1993 would be $110 ($100 x 1.10). Note that percentage changes in the chained (1992) dollar estimates and the percentage changes calculated from the quantity indexes are identical, except for small differences due to rounding. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed GDP components shown in tables 1 and 3 do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. The "residual" line shown in these tables is the difference between GDP and the sum of the most detailed components shown in each table. For current periods, the residual is small. However, the residual tends to become larger as one moves further from the base period. In such cases, the table of contributions of the major components to the change in real GDP provides a better basis for determining the composition of GDP growth than the chained-dollar estimates. Reference: "BEA's Chain Indexes, Time Series, and Measures of Long-Term Economic Growth," May 1997 Survey of Current Business.