FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EST, MONDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 1999 James E. Rankin: (202) 606-5301 (Personal Income) BEA 99-03 Greg Key:606-5302 (Personal Outlays) Recorded message: 606-5303 PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: DECEMBER 1998 Personal income increased $38.4 billion, or 0.5 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $31.2 billion, or 0.5 percent, in December, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $45.5 billion, or 0.8 percent. In November, personal income increased $29.9 billion, or 0.4 percent, DPI increased $22.7 billion, or 0.4 percent, and PCE increased $9.0 billion, or 0.2 percent, based on revised estimates. 1998 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. (Percent change from preceding month) Personal income, current dollars 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 Disposable personal income: Current dollars .4 .3 .4 .4 .5 Chained (1992) dollars .3 .4 .2 .3 .4 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars .4 .6 .5 .2 .8 Chained (1992) dollars .4 .7 .2 .1 .7 Wages and salaries Private wage and salary disbursements increased $20.3 billion in December, compared with an increase of $20.5 billion in November. Goods-producing industries' payrolls increased $5.8 billion, compared with an increase of $1.7 billion; manufacturing payrolls increased $1.8 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $1.7 billion. Distributive industries' payrolls increased $3.9 billion, compared with an increase of $5.3 billion. Service industries' payrolls increased $10.8 billion, compared with an increase of $13.4 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $1.2 billion, compared with an increase of $2.0 billion. Other personal income Proprietors' income increased $8.0 billion in December, compared with an increase of $5.6 billion in November. Farm proprietors' income increased $3.0 billion, compared with an increase of $1.3 billion. Farm proprietors' income in November and in December was boosted by increases in subsidy payments made to farmers participating in the federal farm program. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $5.0 billion in December, compared with an increase of $4.3 billion in November. Transfer payments increased $8.8 billion in December, compared with an increase of $1.9 billion in November. The December increase in transfer payments reflected retroactive social security benefit payments of $3.7 billion at an annual rate, resulting from a recalculation of the earnings base underlying the benefits for recent retirees. Personal interest income decreased $0.8 billion, compared with a decrease of $0.5 billion. Personal dividend income increased $1.0 billion in December, the same increase as in November. Rental income of persons increased $0.4 billion in December, compared with an increase of $0.2 billion in November. Personal taxes and disposable personal income Personal tax and nontax payments increased $7.2 billion in December, compared with an increase of $7.1 billion in November. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal tax and nontax payments -- increased $31.2 billion, or 0.5 percent, in December, compared with an increase of $22.7 billion, or 0.4 percent, in November. Personal outlays and personal saving Personal outlays -- PCE, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net) -- increased $46.5 billion in December, compared with an increase of $10.6 billion in November. PCE increased $45.5 billion, compared with an increase of $9.0 billion. Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was a negative $8.0 billion in December, compared with $7.4 billion in November. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was a negative 0.1 percent in December, in contrast to a positive 0.1 percent in November. Chained (1992) dollar estimates Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.4 percent in December, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in November. Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.7 percent in December, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in November. Purchases of durable goods increased 4.5 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.5 percent; motor vehicle purchases accounted for most of the December increase and more than accounted for the November decrease. Purchases of nondurable goods decreased 0.1 percent in December, in contrast to an increase of 0.6 percent in November. Purchases of services increased 0.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of less than 0.1 percent. Revisions Estimates have been revised for October and November. Changes in personal income, current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar PCE for October and November -- revised and as published in the previous release -- are shown below. Change from preceding month October November Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised (Dollars) (Percent) (Dollars) (Percent) Personal income: Current dollars . . 32.0 30.6 0.4 0.4 32.8 29.9 0.5 0.4 Disposable personal income: Current dollars . . 27.7 25.9 .5 .4 25.9 22.7 .4 .4 Chained (1992) dollars 13.0 10.4 .2 .2 19.0 16.1 .4 .3 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars . . 39.7 26.7 .7 .5 5.4 9.0 .1 .2 Chained (1992) dollars 24.0 11.6 .5 .2 1.1 4.1 .0 .1 Personal income and outlays in 1998 Personal income increased 5.0 percent, or $339.6 billion, in 1998 (that is, from the 1997 annual level to the 1998 annual level), compared with an increase of 5.6 percent, or $358.8 billion in 1997 (see the table below and table 3). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased 4.0 percent, compared with an increase of 4.7 percent. Personal outlays increased 5.7 percent, compared with an increase of 5.5 percent. Real DPI increased 3.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 0.5 percent during 1998, compared with 2.1 percent during 1997. 1996 1997 1998 (Percent change from preceding year) Current dollars Personal income 5.8 5.6 5.0 Wage and salary disbursements 5.9 7.1 6.7 Other labor income -3.7 1.5 3.6 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustment 8.1 4.5 4.4 Farm 73.5 -8.8 -23.6 Nonfarm 5.0 5.5 6.3 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 12.3 5.3 2.4 Personal dividend income 28.7 4.9 1.1 Personal interest income 2.1 3.9 2.3 Transfer payments to persons 5.1 4.0 3.5 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits 5.9 5.2 3.7 Government unemployment insurance benefits 2.5 -9.2 -2.1 Other 4.4 3.3 3.6 Personal contributions for social insurance 4.3 6.5 6.5 Personal tax and nontax payments 12.0 11.1 11.0 Disposable personal income 4.9 4.7 4.0 Personal outlays 5.5 5.5 5.7 Addenda: Disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars 2.8 2.8 3.1 Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income 2.9 2.1 0.5 BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; selected articles from the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available on BEA's web site: http://www.bea.gov STAT-USA maintains an electronic bulletin board (EBB) and an Internet site, which contain BEA estimates, BEA news releases, and the Survey of Current Business. The information available through STAT-USA is often more detailed and more timely than that available from other sources. To subscribe to STAT-USA's World Wide Web system, go to http://www.stat-usa.gov. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT-USA's Internet information are $50.00 for 3 months or $150.00 for 1 year. For further information, call (202) 482-1986. Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers: (202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product 606-5303 Personal income and outlays 606-5362 Summary of international transactions Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The printed Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C. 20402. First class mail: Annual subscription $88.00 domestic. Second class mail: Annual subscription $39.00 domestic, $48.75 foreign; single issue $14.00 domestic, $17.50 foreign. *     *     * Next release -- Personal Income and Outlays for January will be released on March 1, 1999, at 8:30 A.M. EST. Table 1. -- Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ----------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1998 July 98 Aug. 98 Sep. 98 Oct. 98r Nov. 98r Dec. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income..................... 6,784.0 7,123.6 7,133.7 7,164.1 7,184.6 7,215.2 7,245.1 7,283.5 Wage and salary disbursements..... 3,889.8 4,149.2 4,153.6 4,183.4 4,194.3 4,217.9 4,240.3 4,261.9 Private industries.............. 3,225.7 3,459.6 3,463.4 3,490.6 3,499.2 3,519.5 3,540.0 3,560.3 Goods-producing industries.... 975.0 1,026.9 1,020.9 1,030.6 1,032.7 1,034.2 1,035.9 1,041.7 Manufacturing............... 719.5 751.5 743.8 752.4 756.4 754.4 752.7 754.5 Distributive industries....... 879.8 938.5 941.5 946.3 949.6 952.3 957.6 961.5 Service industries............ 1,370.8 1,494.3 1,501.0 1,513.8 1,516.9 1,533.0 1,546.4 1,557.2 Government...................... 664.2 689.5 690.2 692.8 695.1 698.4 700.4 701.6 Other labor income................ 392.9 406.9 407.5 408.3 409.2 410.1 411.0 411.9 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj........................... 551.2 575.5 577.2 574.7 576.4 583.6 589.2 597.2 Farm............................ 35.5 27.1 26.8 25.2 23.5 26.4 27.7 30.7 Nonfarm......................... 515.8 548.4 550.5 549.5 552.9 557.2 561.5 566.5 Rental income of persons with CCAdj........................... 158.2 162.0 163.0 163.5 164.4 164.7 164.9 165.3 Personal dividend income.......... 260.3 263.1 262.4 262.8 263.7 264.7 265.7 266.7 Personal interest income.......... 747.3 764.9 767.3 769.4 770.7 770.8 770.3 769.5 Transfer payments to persons...... 1,110.4 1,149.5 1,150.4 1,151.8 1,156.6 1,156.0 1,157.9 1,166.7 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits. 565.9 586.7 588.0 588.5 590.4 588.7 589.6 595.6 Government unemployment insurance benefits............ 19.9 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.6 19.4 19.4 19.3 Other........................... 524.6 543.3 542.9 544.0 546.6 548.0 548.8 551.8 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance................ 326.2 347.4 347.7 349.9 350.8 352.6 354.2 355.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2. -- The Disposition of Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1997 1998 July 98 Aug. 98 Sep. 98 Oct. 98r Nov. 98r Dec. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 6,784.0 7,123.6 7,133.7 7,164.1 7,184.6 7,215.2 7,245.1 7,283.5 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments........................... 989.0 1,098.1 1,102.0 1,110.8 1,112.4 1,117.2 1,124.3 1,131.5 Equals: Disposable personal income... 5,795.1 6,025.5 6,031.7 6,053.3 6,072.2 6,098.1 6,120.8 6,152.0 Less: Personal outlays............... 5,674.1 5,998.1 6,009.5 6,036.4 6,073.7 6,102.8 6,113.4 6,159.9 Personal consumption expenditures... 5,493.7 5,806.0 5,817.7 5,843.1 5,879.2 5,905.9 5,914.9 5,960.4 Interest paid by persons............ 161.5 172.3 171.9 173.3 174.5 176.6 178.1 179.1 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 18.9 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.4 20.4 20.4 Equals: Personal saving.............. 121.0 27.4 22.2 16.9 -1.4 -4.8 7.4 -8.0 Addenda: Disposable personal income: Chained (1992) dollars 1/........... 5,183.1 5,346.1 5,347.1 5,363.0 5,382.3 5,392.7 5,408.8 5,432.9 Per capita: Current dollars................... 21,633 22,299 22,316 22,376 22,427 22,504 22,573 22,675 Chained (1992) dollars............ 19,349 19,785 19,783 19,825 19,879 19,901 19,948 20,025 Population (thousands).............. 267,880 270,211 270,289 270,522 270,757 270,973 271,153 271,307 Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income ......... 2.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. 1/ Disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars equals the current-dollar figure divided by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 3. -- Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1997 1998 July 98 Aug. 98 Sep. 98 Oct. 98r Nov. 98r Dec. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 358.8 339.6 29.3 30.4 20.5 30.6 29.9 38.4 Wage and salary disbursements........ 258.7 259.4 22.6 29.8 10.9 23.6 22.4 21.6 Private industries................ 235.5 233.9 20.6 27.2 8.6 20.3 20.5 20.3 Goods-producing industries...... 66.0 51.9 -0.4 9.7 2.1 1.5 1.7 5.8 Manufacturing................. 44.9 32.0 -4.5 8.6 4.0 -2.0 -1.7 1.8 Distributive industries......... 56.5 58.7 7.1 4.8 3.3 2.7 5.3 3.9 Service industries.............. 112.9 123.5 13.9 12.8 3.1 16.1 13.4 10.8 Government........................ 23.3 25.3 2.1 2.6 2.3 3.3 2.0 1.2 Other labor income.................. 5.9 14.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj............................. 23.5 24.3 2.4 -2.5 1.7 7.2 5.6 8.0 Farm.............................. -3.4 -8.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 2.9 1.3 3.0 Nonfarm........................... 27.0 32.6 3.9 -1.0 3.4 4.3 4.3 5.0 Rental income of persons with CCAdj............................. 8.0 3.8 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.4 Personal dividend income............ 12.1 2.8 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 Personal interest income............ 27.9 17.6 2.3 2.1 1.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.8 Transfer payments to persons........ 42.4 39.1 2.1 1.4 4.8 -0.6 1.9 8.8 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits... 27.9 20.8 1.8 0.5 1.9 -1.7 0.9 6.0 Government unemployment insurance benefits.............. -2.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 Other............................. 16.6 18.7 0.4 1.1 2.6 1.4 0.8 3.0 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance.................. 19.9 21.2 1.5 2.2 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments............................ 98.5 109.1 1.5 8.8 1.6 4.8 7.1 7.2 Equals: Disposable personal income.... 260.4 230.4 27.7 21.6 18.9 25.9 22.7 31.2 Less: Personal outlays................ 297.9 324.0 4.3 26.9 37.3 29.1 10.6 46.5 Personal consumption expenditures... 278.0 312.3 2.7 25.4 36.1 26.7 9.0 45.5 Interest paid by persons............ 17.9 10.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 2.1 1.5 1.0 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 Equals: Personal saving............... -37.5 -93.6 23.4 -5.3 -18.3 -3.4 12.2 -15.4 Addendum: Disposable personal income, chained (1992) dollars.......... 140.1 163.0 13.1 15.9 19.3 10.4 16.1 24.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 4. -- Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1998 July 98 Aug. 98 Sep. 98 Oct. 98r Nov. 98r Dec. 98p ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 5,493.7 5,806.0 5,817.7 5,843.1 5,879.2 5,905.9 5,914.9 5,960.4 Durable goods....................... 673.0 723.5 707.4 715.4 733.8 742.9 737.6 768.9 Nondurable goods.................... 1,600.6 1,662.0 1,669.9 1,669.4 1,670.8 1,683.2 1,691.5 1,693.6 Services............................ 3,220.1 3,420.5 3,440.4 3,458.2 3,474.7 3,479.7 3,485.7 3,497.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 4,913.5 5,151.2 5,157.4 5,176.8 5,211.2 5,222.8 5,226.9 5,263.7 Durable goods....................... 668.6 735.8 719.3 729.8 751.8 761.2 757.4 791.8 Nondurable goods.................... 1,486.3 1,543.1 1,551.2 1,546.6 1,549.3 1,555.8 1,564.6 1,563.7 Services............................ 2,761.5 2,879.4 2,891.5 2,905.4 2,917.5 2,914.8 2,913.9 2,921.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Implicit price deflators (Index numbers, 1992 = 100) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 111.81 112.71 112.80 112.87 112.82 113.08 113.16 113.24 Durable goods....................... 100.66 98.32 98.35 98.03 97.60 97.59 97.39 97.11 Nondurable goods.................... 107.69 107.70 107.65 107.94 107.84 108.19 108.11 108.31 Services............................ 116.61 118.79 118.98 119.03 119.10 119.38 119.62 119.72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change from preceding period ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 278.0 312.3 2.7 25.4 36.1 26.7 9.0 45.5 Durable goods....................... 29.7 50.5 -29.9 8.0 18.4 9.1 -5.3 31.3 Nondurable goods.................... 61.4 61.4 8.9 -0.5 1.4 12.4 8.3 2.1 Services............................ 186.9 200.4 23.7 17.8 16.5 5.0 6.0 12.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 161.1 237.7 -8.7 19.4 34.4 11.6 4.1 36.8 Durable goods....................... 42.5 67.2 -30.5 10.5 22.0 9.4 -3.8 34.4 Nondurable goods.................... 35.4 56.8 6.0 -4.6 2.7 6.5 8.8 -0.9 Services............................ 84.8 117.9 11.5 13.9 12.1 -2.7 -0.9 7.8 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 5. -- Percent Change From Preceding Period in Selected Series -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1998 July 98 Aug. 98 Sep. 98 Oct. 98r Nov. 98r Dec. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on current dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 5.6 5.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 Disposable personal income............ 4.7 4.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 Personal consumption expenditures..... 5.3 5.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.8 Durable goods....................... 4.6 7.5 -4.0 1.1 2.6 1.2 -0.7 4.2 Nondurable goods.................... 4.0 3.8 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 Services............................ 6.2 6.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on chained (1992) dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disposable personal income............ 2.8 3.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 Personal consumption expenditures..... 3.4 4.8 -0.2 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.7 Durable goods....................... 6.8 10.1 -4.1 1.5 3.0 1.3 -0.5 4.5 Nondurable goods.................... 2.4 3.8 0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 -0.1 Services............................ 3.2 4.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.