FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EST, THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24, 1998 James E. Rankin: (202)606-5301 (Personal Income BEA 98-39 Greg Key: 606-5302 (Personal Outlays) Recorded message: 606-5303 PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: NOVEMBER 1998 Personal income increased $32.8 billion, or 0.5 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $25.9 billion, or 0.4 percent, in November, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $5.4 billion, or 0.1 percent. In October, personal income increased $32.0 billion, or 0.4 percent, DPI increased $27.7 billion, or 0.5 percent, and PCE increased $39.7 billion, or 0.7 percent, based on revised estimates. 1998 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. (Percent change from preceding month) Personal income, current dollars 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 Disposable personal income: Current dollars .5 .4 .3 .5 .4 Chained (1992) dollars .2 .3 .4 .2 .4 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars .0 .4 .6 .7 .1 Chained (1992) dollars -.2 .4 .7 .5 .0 Wages and salaries Private wage and salary disbursements increased $21.8 billion in November, compared with an increase of $19.5 billion in October. Goods-producing industries' payrolls increased $3.8 billion, compared with an increase of $1.4 billion; manufacturing payrolls was unchanged, in contrast to a decrease of $2.0 billion. Distributive industries' payrolls increased $4.7 billion, compared with an increase of $1.8 billion. Service industries' payrolls increased $13.4 billion, compared with an increase of $16.2 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $1.4 billion, compared with an increase of $2.9 billion. Other personal income Proprietors' income increased $5.5 billion in November, compared with an increase of $9.0 billion in October. Farm proprietors' income increased $2.9 billion, compared with an increase of $3.1 billion. Farm proprietors' income in October and November was boosted by additional subsidy payments made to farmers participating in the Federal farm program. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $2.6 billion, compared with an increase of $5.9 billion. Transfer payments increased $2.6 billion in November, in contrast to a decrease of $1.1 billion in October. Personal interest income decreased $0.2 billion, in contrast to an increase of $0.3 billion. Personal dividend income increased $1.0 billion in November, the same as in October. Rental income of persons increased $1.4 billion in November, the same as in October. Personal taxes and disposable personal income Personal tax and nontax payments increased $6.8 billion in November, compared with an increase of $4.4 billion in October. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal tax and nontax payments -- increased $25.9 billion, or 0.4 percent, in November, compared with an increase of $27.7 billion, or 0.5 percent, in October. Personal outlays and personal saving Personal outlays -- PCE, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net) -- increased $6.5 billion in November, compared with an increase of $41.0 billion in October. PCE increased $5.4 billion, compared with an increase of $39.7 billion. Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $4.6 billion in November, compared with a negative $14.8 billion in October. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 0.1 percent in November, in contrast to a negative 0.2 percent in October. Chained (1992) dollar estimates Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.4 percent in November, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in October. Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased less than 0.1 percent in November, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent in October. Purchases of durable goods decreased 0.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 2.5 percent; motor vehicle purchases more than accounted for the November decrease and accounted for most of the increase in October. Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.4 percent in November, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent in October. Purchases of services were essentially unchanged in each month. Revisions Estimates have been revised for July through October. Changes in personal income, current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar PCE for September and October -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below. Revisions for July and August were small. Change from preceding month September October Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised (Dollars) (Percent) (Dollars) (Percent) Personal income: Current dollars . . 16.7 20.5 0.2 0.3 31.3 32.0 0.4 0.4 Disposable personal income: Current dollars . . 16.3 18.9 .3 .3 28.0 27.7 .5 .5 Chained (1992) dollars 16.4 19.3 .3 .4 13.8 13.0 .3 .2 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars . . 42.0 36.1 .7 .6 29.4 39.7 .5 .7 Chained (1992) dollars 39.1 34.4 .8 .7 15.3 24.0 .3 .5 * * * BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; selected articles from the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available on BEA's web site: http://www.bea.gov STAT-USA maintains an electronic bulletin board (EBB) and an Internet site, which contain BEA estimates, BEA news releases, and the Survey of Current Business. The information available through STAT-USA is often more detailed and more timely than that available from other sources. 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Second class mail: Annual subscription $39.00 domestic, $48.75 foreign; single issue $14.00 domestic, $17.50 foreign. * * * Next release -- Personal Income and Outlays for December will be released on February 1, 1999, at 8:30 A.M. EST. Release dates in 1999 for Personal Income and Outlays Release covering Release date December 1998 February 1 January 1999 March 1 February 1999 April 1 March 1999 May 3 April 1999 May 28 May 1999 June 28 June 1999 July 30 July 1999 August 27 August 1999 October 1 September 1999 November 2 October 1999 November 26 November 1999 December 23 Table 1. -- Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ----------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1997 June 98 July 98r Aug. 98r Sep. 98r Oct. 98r Nov. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income..................... 6,425.2 6,784.0 7,104.4 7,133.7 7,164.1 7,184.6 7,216.6 7,249.4 Wage and salary disbursements..... 3,631.1 3,889.8 4,131.0 4,153.6 4,183.4 4,194.3 4,216.7 4,239.9 Private industries.............. 2,990.2 3,225.7 3,442.8 3,463.4 3,490.6 3,499.2 3,518.7 3,540.5 Goods-producing industries.... 909.0 975.0 1,021.3 1,020.9 1,030.6 1,032.7 1,034.1 1,037.9 Manufacturing............... 674.6 719.5 748.3 743.8 752.4 756.4 754.4 754.4 Distributive industries....... 823.3 879.8 934.4 941.5 946.3 949.6 951.4 956.1 Service industries............ 1,257.9 1,370.8 1,487.1 1,501.0 1,513.8 1,516.9 1,533.1 1,546.5 Government...................... 640.9 664.2 688.1 690.2 692.8 695.1 698.0 699.4 Other labor income................ 387.0 392.9 406.6 407.5 408.3 409.2 410.1 411.0 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj........................... 527.7 551.2 574.8 577.2 574.7 576.4 585.4 590.9 Farm............................ 38.9 35.5 28.2 26.8 25.2 23.5 26.6 29.5 Nonfarm......................... 488.8 515.8 546.6 550.5 549.5 552.9 558.8 561.4 Rental income of persons with CCAdj........................... 150.2 158.2 162.6 163.0 163.5 164.4 165.8 167.2 Personal dividend income.......... 248.2 260.3 262.3 262.4 262.8 263.7 264.7 265.7 Personal interest income.......... 719.4 747.3 765.0 767.3 769.4 770.7 771.0 770.8 Transfer payments to persons...... 1,068.0 1,110.4 1,148.3 1,150.4 1,151.8 1,156.6 1,155.5 1,158.1 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits. 538.0 565.9 586.2 588.0 588.5 590.4 588.7 590.9 Government unemployment insurance benefits............ 21.9 19.9 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.6 19.4 19.4 Other........................... 508.0 524.6 542.5 542.9 544.0 546.6 547.4 547.8 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance................ 306.3 326.2 346.2 347.7 349.9 350.8 352.5 354.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2. -- The Disposition of Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1996 1997 June 98 July 98r Aug. 98r Sep. 98r Oct. 98r Nov. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 6,425.2 6,784.0 7,104.4 7,133.7 7,164.1 7,184.6 7,216.6 7,249.4 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments........................... 890.5 989.0 1,100.5 1,102.0 1,110.8 1,112.4 1,116.8 1,123.6 Equals: Disposable personal income... 5,534.7 5,795.1 6,004.0 6,031.7 6,053.3 6,072.2 6,099.9 6,125.8 Less: Personal outlays............... 5,376.2 5,674.1 6,005.2 6,009.5 6,036.4 6,073.7 6,114.7 6,121.2 Personal consumption expenditures... 5,215.7 5,493.7 5,815.0 5,817.7 5,843.1 5,879.2 5,918.9 5,924.3 Interest paid by persons............ 143.6 161.5 170.4 171.9 173.3 174.5 175.8 176.9 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 16.9 18.9 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 Equals: Personal saving.............. 158.5 121.0 -1.2 22.2 16.9 -1.4 -14.8 4.6 Addenda: Disposable personal income: Chained (1992) dollars 1/........... 5,043.0 5,183.1 5,334.0 5,347.1 5,363.0 5,382.3 5,395.3 5,414.3 Per capita: Current dollars................... 20,840 21,633 22,231 22,316 22,376 22,427 22,511 22,592 Chained (1992) dollars............ 18,989 19,349 19,751 19,783 19,825 19,879 19,911 19,968 Population (thousands).............. 265,579 267,880 270,069 270,289 270,522 270,757 270,973 271,153 Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income ......... 2.9 2.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. 1/ Disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars equals the current-dollar figure divided by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 3. -- Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1996 1997 June 98 July 98r Aug. 98r Sep. 98r Oct. 98r Nov. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 353.1 358.8 18.5 29.3 30.4 20.5 32.0 32.8 Wage and salary disbursements........ 202.6 258.7 6.7 22.6 29.8 10.9 22.4 23.2 Private industries................ 184.4 235.5 4.2 20.6 27.2 8.6 19.5 21.8 Goods-producing industries...... 45.1 66.0 -4.2 -0.4 9.7 2.1 1.4 3.8 Manufacturing................. 26.7 44.9 -4.9 -4.5 8.6 4.0 -2.0 0.0 Distributive industries......... 40.4 56.5 -1.2 7.1 4.8 3.3 1.8 4.7 Service industries.............. 99.0 112.9 9.6 13.9 12.8 3.1 16.2 13.4 Government........................ 18.2 23.3 2.4 2.1 2.6 2.3 2.9 1.4 Other labor income.................. -14.6 5.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj............................. 39.6 23.5 4.6 2.4 -2.5 1.7 9.0 5.5 Farm.............................. 16.5 -3.4 0.5 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 3.1 2.9 Nonfarm........................... 23.2 27.0 4.1 3.9 -1.0 3.4 5.9 2.6 Rental income of persons with CCAdj............................. 16.5 8.0 1.7 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.4 Personal dividend income............ 55.4 12.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 Personal interest income............ 14.5 27.9 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.3 0.3 -0.2 Transfer payments to persons........ 52.1 42.4 3.0 2.1 1.4 4.8 -1.1 2.6 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits... 30.2 27.9 1.1 1.8 0.5 1.9 -1.7 2.2 Government unemployment insurance benefits.............. 0.5 -2.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.0 Other............................. 21.4 16.6 1.7 0.4 1.1 2.6 0.8 0.4 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance.................. 12.7 19.9 0.7 1.5 2.2 0.9 1.7 1.7 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments............................ 95.5 98.5 5.6 1.5 8.8 1.6 4.4 6.8 Equals: Disposable personal income.... 257.6 260.4 13.1 27.7 21.6 18.9 27.7 25.9 Less: Personal outlays................ 279.0 297.9 34.8 4.3 26.9 37.3 41.0 6.5 Personal consumption expenditures... 261.8 278.0 32.9 2.7 25.4 36.1 39.7 5.4 Interest paid by persons............ 16.0 17.9 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.1 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 1.2 2.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Equals: Personal saving............... -21.3 -37.5 -21.7 23.4 -5.3 -18.3 -13.4 19.4 Addendum: Disposable personal income, chained (1992) dollars.......... 136.9 140.1 15.2 13.1 15.9 19.3 13.0 19.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 4. -- Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1997 June 98 July 98r Aug. 98r Sep. 98r Oct. 98r Nov. 98p ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 5,215.7 5,493.7 5,815.0 5,817.7 5,843.1 5,879.2 5,918.9 5,924.3 Durable goods....................... 643.3 673.0 737.3 707.4 715.4 733.8 751.6 745.0 Nondurable goods.................... 1,539.2 1,600.6 1,661.0 1,669.9 1,669.4 1,670.8 1,685.9 1,690.9 Services............................ 3,033.2 3,220.1 3,416.7 3,440.4 3,458.2 3,474.7 3,481.4 3,488.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 4,752.4 4,913.5 5,166.1 5,157.4 5,176.8 5,211.2 5,235.2 5,236.3 Durable goods....................... 626.1 668.6 749.8 719.3 729.8 751.8 770.3 764.5 Nondurable goods.................... 1,450.9 1,486.3 1,545.2 1,551.2 1,546.6 1,549.3 1,558.3 1,564.4 Services............................ 2,676.7 2,761.5 2,880.0 2,891.5 2,905.4 2,917.5 2,916.8 2,917.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Implicit price deflators (Index numbers, 1992 = 100) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 109.75 111.81 112.56 112.80 112.87 112.82 113.06 113.14 Durable goods....................... 102.75 100.66 98.33 98.35 98.03 97.60 97.57 97.44 Nondurable goods.................... 106.08 107.69 107.49 107.65 107.94 107.84 108.18 108.09 Services............................ 113.32 116.61 118.63 118.98 119.03 119.10 119.35 119.58 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change from preceding period ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 261.8 278.0 32.9 2.7 25.4 36.1 39.7 5.4 Durable goods....................... 32.3 29.7 13.0 -29.9 8.0 18.4 17.8 -6.6 Nondurable goods.................... 65.6 61.4 3.1 8.9 -0.5 1.4 15.1 5.0 Services............................ 164.0 186.9 16.8 23.7 17.8 16.5 6.7 7.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 146.8 161.1 32.7 -8.7 19.4 34.4 24.0 1.1 Durable goods....................... 37.0 42.5 15.8 -30.5 10.5 22.0 18.5 -5.8 Nondurable goods.................... 33.3 35.4 4.5 6.0 -4.6 2.7 9.0 6.1 Services............................ 77.1 84.8 13.9 11.5 13.9 12.1 -0.7 0.3 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 5. -- Percent Change From Preceding Period in Selected Series -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1997 June 98 July 98r Aug. 98r Sep. 98r Oct. 98r Nov. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on current dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 5.8 5.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 Disposable personal income............ 4.9 4.7 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 Personal consumption expenditures..... 5.3 5.3 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.1 Durable goods....................... 5.3 4.6 1.8 -4.0 1.1 2.6 2.4 -0.9 Nondurable goods.................... 4.4 4.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.3 Services............................ 5.7 6.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on chained (1992) dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disposable personal income............ 2.8 2.8 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 Personal consumption expenditures..... 3.2 3.4 0.6 -0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.0 Durable goods....................... 6.3 6.8 2.1 -4.1 1.5 3.0 2.5 -0.8 Nondurable goods.................... 2.4 2.4 0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 Services............................ 3.0 3.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.