FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EST, APRIL 1, 1999 James E. Rankin: 202 606-5301 (Personal Income) BEA 99-09 Greg Key: 606-5302 (Personal Outlays) Recorded message: 606-5303 PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: FEBRUARY 1999 Personal income increased $39.7 billion, or 0.5 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $32.9 billion, or 0.5 percent, in February, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $44.1 billion, or 0.7 percent. In January, personal income increased $46.6 billion, or 0.6 percent, DPI increased $46.9 billion, or 0.8 percent, and PCE increased $22.0 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates. 1998 1999 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. (Percent change from preceding month) Personal income, current dollars 0.5 0.9 .0 0.6 0.5 Disposable personal income: Current dollars .4 .9 -.1 .8 .5 Chained (1992) dollars .2 .9 -.2 .6 .5 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars .6 .1 .9 .4 .7 Chained (1992) dollars .3 .1 .8 .2 .7 Wages and salaries Private wage and salary disbursements increased $25.6 billion in February, compared with an increase of $22.8 billion in January. Goods-producing industries' payrolls increased $3.5 billion, compared with an increase of $0.7 billion; manufacturing payrolls increased $0.3 billion, compared with an increase of $1.9 billion. Distributive industries' payrolls increased $6.6 billion, compared with an increase of $4.6 billion. Service industries' payrolls increased $15.5 billion, compared with an increase of $17.6 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $2.7 billion, compared with an increase of $8.6 billion. Other personal income Proprietors' income increased $2.8 billion in February, compared with an increase of $3.7 billion in January. Farm proprietors' income decreased $1.3 billion, compared with a decrease of $0.8 billion. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $4.0 billion, compared with an increase of $4.5 billion. Transfer payments increased $2.8 billion in February, compared with an increase of $11.3 billion in January. The January change had been boosted by cost-of-living increases in social security benefits and other transfer payment programs, by changes to the Earned Income Credit Program and by the Child Tax Credit Program. Personal interest income increased $1.7 billion, compared with an increase of $1.0 billion. Personal dividend income increased $1.1 billion, compared with an increase of $1.0 billion. Rental income of persons increased $3.0 billion, compared with an increase of $2.5 billion. Personal contributions for social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income -- increased $1.8 billion in February, compared with an increase of $5.9 billion in January. The January increase reflects the effect of an increase in the social security taxable wage base for employees and the self-employed (from $68,400 to $72,600), as well as the effect of an increase in supplementary medical insurance premiums. Personal taxes and disposable personal income Personal tax and nontax payments increased $6.8 billion in February, in contrast to a decrease of $0.3 billion in January. In January, federal income tax payments were reduced $5.7 billion, reflecting the provisions of the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 and the indexation provisions of current tax law. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal tax and nontax payments -- increased $32.9 billion, or 0.5 percent, in February, compared with an increase of $46.9 billion, or 0.8 percent, in January. Personal outlays and personal saving Personal outlays -- PCE, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net) -- increased $45.0 billion in February, compared with an increase of $22.3 billion in January. PCE increased $44.1 billion, compared with an increase of $22.0 billion. Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was a negative $14.5 billion in February, compared with a negative $2.4 billion in January. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was a negative 0.2 percent in February, compared with zero percent in January. Chained (1992) dollar estimates Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.5 percent in February, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent in January. Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.7 percent in February, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in January. Purchases of durable goods increased 3.2 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 2.5 percent; motor vehicle purchases accounted for most of the February increase and more than accounted for the January decrease. Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.7 percent in February, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in January. Purchases of services increased 0.2 percent, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent. Revisions Estimates have been revised for October through January. Changes in personal income, current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar PCE for December and January -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below. Revisions for October and November were small. Change from preceding month December January Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised (Dollars) (Percent) (Dollars) (Percent) Personal income: Current dollars . . -5.0 -3.0 -0.1 .0 45.2 46.6 0.6 0.6 Disposable personal income: Current dollars . . -9.2 -7.8 -.1 -.1 45.1 46.9 .7 .8 Chained (1992) dollars -13.3 -12.7 -.2 -.2 29.4 32.8 .5 .6 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars . . 42.8 53.9 .7 .9 17.1 22.0 .3 .4 Chained (1992) dollars 32.8 42.0 .6 .8 5.0 11.0 .1 .2 * * * BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available on BEA's web site: http://www.bea.gov STAT-USA maintains an electronic bulletin board (EBB) and an Internet site, which contain BEA estimates, BEA news releases, and the Survey of Current Business. The information available through STAT-USA is often more detailed and more timely than that available from other sources. 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Second class mail: Annual subscription $39.00 domestic, $48.75 foreign; single issue $14.00 domestic, $17.50 foreign. * * * Next release -- Personal Income and Outlays for March will be released on May 3, 1999, at 8:30 A.M. EDT. Table 1. -- Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ----------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1998r Sep. 98 Oct. 98r Nov. 98r Dec. 98r Jan. 99r Feb. 99p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income..................... 6,784.0 7,126.1 7,184.6 7,217.2 7,279.8 7,276.8 7,323.4 7,363.1 Wage and salary disbursements..... 3,889.8 4,149.9 4,194.3 4,220.9 4,243.9 4,263.5 4,295.0 4,323.3 Private industries.............. 3,225.7 3,460.5 3,499.2 3,523.5 3,544.4 3,562.7 3,585.5 3,611.1 Goods-producing industries.... 975.0 1,026.9 1,032.7 1,034.3 1,036.5 1,041.6 1,042.3 1,045.8 Manufacturing............... 719.5 751.5 756.4 754.5 753.5 754.2 756.1 756.4 Distributive industries....... 879.8 939.6 949.6 956.3 961.9 966.2 970.8 977.4 Service industries............ 1,370.8 1,494.0 1,516.9 1,533.0 1,546.1 1,554.8 1,572.4 1,587.9 Government...................... 664.2 689.3 695.1 697.4 699.4 700.9 709.5 712.2 Other labor income................ 392.9 406.9 409.2 410.1 411.0 411.9 413.3 415.3 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj........................... 551.2 577.2 576.4 582.9 614.8 592.9 596.6 599.4 Farm............................ 35.5 28.7 23.5 25.7 53.0 25.4 24.6 23.3 Nonfarm......................... 515.8 548.5 552.9 557.3 561.7 567.5 572.0 576.0 Rental income of persons with CCAdj........................... 158.2 162.6 164.4 164.8 171.6 166.3 168.8 171.8 Personal dividend income.......... 260.3 263.1 263.7 264.7 265.7 266.7 267.7 268.8 Personal interest income.......... 747.3 764.8 770.7 770.5 769.8 769.4 770.4 772.1 Transfer payments to persons...... 1,110.4 1,149.0 1,156.6 1,155.8 1,157.3 1,161.7 1,173.0 1,175.8 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits. 565.9 586.5 590.4 588.8 589.6 593.2 597.0 599.4 Government unemployment insurance benefits............ 19.9 19.5 19.6 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.5 Other........................... 524.6 542.9 546.6 547.6 548.1 548.9 556.5 556.9 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance................ 326.2 347.4 350.8 352.5 354.2 355.6 361.5 363.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2. -- The Disposition of Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1997 1998r Sep. 98 Oct. 98r Nov. 98r Dec. 98r Jan. 99r Feb. 99p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 6,784.0 7,126.1 7,184.6 7,217.2 7,279.8 7,276.8 7,323.4 7,363.1 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments........................... 989.0 1,098.3 1,112.4 1,119.1 1,125.4 1,130.1 1,129.8 1,136.6 Equals: Disposable personal income... 5,795.1 6,027.9 6,072.2 6,098.1 6,154.5 6,146.7 6,193.6 6,226.5 Less: Personal outlays............... 5,674.1 6,000.2 6,073.7 6,109.3 6,117.9 6,173.7 6,196.0 6,241.0 Personal consumption expenditures... 5,493.7 5,807.9 5,879.2 5,912.0 5,919.2 5,973.1 5,995.1 6,039.2 Interest paid by persons............ 161.5 172.4 174.5 176.7 178.1 180.1 180.3 181.3 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 18.9 19.9 20.0 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.6 Equals: Personal saving.............. 121.0 27.7 -1.4 -11.2 36.6 -27.1 -2.4 -14.5 Addenda: Disposable personal income: Chained (1992) dollars 1/........... 5,183.1 5,348.5 5,382.3 5,393.8 5,441.3 5,428.6 5,461.4 5,488.8 Per capita: Current dollars................... 21,633 22,304 22,427 22,504 22,682 22,624 22,783 22,890 Chained (1992) dollars............ 19,349 19,790 19,879 19,905 20,054 19,981 20,090 20,178 Population (thousands).............. 267,880 270,258 270,757 270,973 271,336 271,684 271,848 272,021 Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income ......... 2.1 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.6 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. 1/ Disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars equals the current-dollar figure divided by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 3. -- Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1997 1998r Sep. 98 Oct. 98r Nov. 98r Dec. 98r Jan. 99r Feb. 99p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 358.8 342.1 20.5 32.6 62.6 -3.0 46.6 39.7 Wage and salary disbursements........ 258.7 260.1 10.9 26.6 23.0 19.6 31.5 28.3 Private industries................ 235.5 234.8 8.6 24.3 20.9 18.3 22.8 25.6 Goods-producing industries...... 66.0 51.9 2.1 1.6 2.2 5.1 0.7 3.5 Manufacturing................. 44.9 32.0 4.0 -1.9 -1.0 0.7 1.9 0.3 Distributive industries......... 56.5 59.8 3.3 6.7 5.6 4.3 4.6 6.6 Service industries.............. 112.9 123.2 3.1 16.1 13.1 8.7 17.6 15.5 Government........................ 23.3 25.1 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.5 8.6 2.7 Other labor income.................. 5.9 14.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 2.0 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj............................. 23.5 26.0 1.7 6.5 31.9 -21.9 3.7 2.8 Farm.............................. -3.4 -6.8 -1.7 2.2 27.3 -27.6 -0.8 -1.3 Nonfarm........................... 27.0 32.7 3.4 4.4 4.4 5.8 4.5 4.0 Rental income of persons with CCAdj............................. 8.0 4.4 0.9 0.4 6.8 -5.3 2.5 3.0 Personal dividend income............ 12.1 2.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 Personal interest income............ 27.9 17.5 1.3 -0.2 -0.7 -0.4 1.0 1.7 Transfer payments to persons........ 42.4 38.6 4.8 -0.8 1.5 4.4 11.3 2.8 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits... 27.9 20.6 1.9 -1.6 0.8 3.6 3.8 2.4 Government unemployment insurance benefits.............. -2.0 -0.4 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 Other............................. 16.6 18.3 2.6 1.0 0.5 0.8 7.6 0.4 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance.................. 19.9 21.2 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 5.9 1.8 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments............................ 98.5 109.3 1.6 6.7 6.3 4.7 -0.3 6.8 Equals: Disposable personal income.... 260.4 232.8 18.9 25.9 56.4 -7.8 46.9 32.9 Less: Personal outlays................ 297.9 326.1 37.3 35.6 8.6 55.8 22.3 45.0 Personal consumption expenditures... 278.0 314.2 36.1 32.8 7.2 53.9 22.0 44.1 Interest paid by persons............ 17.9 10.9 1.2 2.2 1.4 2.0 0.2 1.0 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Equals: Personal saving............... -37.5 -93.3 -18.3 -9.8 47.8 -63.7 24.7 -12.1 Addendum: Disposable personal income, chained (1992) dollars.......... 140.1 165.4 19.3 11.5 47.5 -12.7 32.8 27.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 4. -- Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1998r Sep. 98 Oct. 98r Nov. 98r Dec. 98r Jan. 99r Feb. 99p ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 5,493.7 5,807.9 5,879.2 5,912.0 5,919.2 5,973.1 5,995.1 6,039.2 Durable goods....................... 673.0 724.7 733.8 748.5 742.0 773.2 752.7 774.4 Nondurable goods.................... 1,600.6 1,662.4 1,670.8 1,683.2 1,691.2 1,699.6 1,717.7 1,728.1 Services............................ 3,220.1 3,420.8 3,474.7 3,480.4 3,486.0 3,500.3 3,524.7 3,536.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 4,913.5 5,153.3 5,211.2 5,229.3 5,233.3 5,275.3 5,286.3 5,323.6 Durable goods....................... 668.6 737.1 751.8 767.1 761.8 796.1 776.4 801.5 Nondurable goods.................... 1,486.3 1,544.1 1,549.3 1,557.9 1,567.0 1,570.4 1,583.0 1,594.5 Services............................ 2,761.5 2,879.5 2,917.5 2,914.3 2,914.2 2,923.0 2,938.0 2,942.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Implicit price deflators (Index numbers, 1992 = 100) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 111.81 112.70 112.82 113.06 113.11 113.23 113.41 113.44 Durable goods....................... 100.66 98.32 97.60 97.58 97.40 97.12 96.95 96.62 Nondurable goods.................... 107.69 107.66 107.84 108.04 107.93 108.23 108.51 108.38 Services............................ 116.61 118.80 119.10 119.42 119.62 119.75 119.97 120.19 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change From Preceding Period ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 278.0 314.2 36.1 32.8 7.2 53.9 22.0 44.1 Durable goods....................... 29.7 51.7 18.4 14.7 -6.5 31.2 -20.5 21.7 Nondurable goods.................... 61.4 61.8 1.4 12.4 8.0 8.4 18.1 10.4 Services............................ 186.9 200.7 16.5 5.7 5.6 14.3 24.4 11.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 161.1 239.8 34.4 18.1 4.0 42.0 11.0 37.3 Durable goods....................... 42.5 68.5 22.0 15.3 -5.3 34.3 -19.7 25.1 Nondurable goods.................... 35.4 57.8 2.7 8.6 9.1 3.4 12.6 11.5 Services............................ 84.8 118.0 12.1 -3.2 -0.1 8.8 15.0 4.5 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 5. -- Percent Change From Preceding Period in Selected Series -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1998r Sep. 98 Oct. 98r Nov. 98r Dec. 98r Jan. 99r Feb. 99p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on current dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 5.6 5.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.6 0.5 Disposable personal income............ 4.7 4.0 0.3 0.4 0.9 -0.1 0.8 0.5 Personal consumption expenditures..... 5.3 5.7 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.7 Durable goods....................... 4.6 7.7 2.6 2.0 -0.9 4.2 -2.6 2.9 Nondurable goods.................... 4.0 3.9 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.6 Services............................ 6.2 6.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on chained (1992) dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disposable personal income............ 2.8 3.2 0.4 0.2 0.9 -0.2 0.6 0.5 Personal consumption expenditures..... 3.4 4.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.7 Durable goods....................... 6.8 10.2 3.0 2.0 -0.7 4.5 -2.5 3.2 Nondurable goods.................... 2.4 3.9 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.7 Services............................ 3.2 4.3 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.