FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EST, MONDAY, MARCH 1, 1999 James E. Rankin: 202 606-5301 (Personal Outlays) BEA 99-06 Greg Key: 606-5302 (Personal Income) Recorded message: 606-5303 PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: JANUARY 1999 Personal income increased $45.2 billion, or 0.6 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $45.1 billion, or 0.7 percent, in January, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $17.1 billion, or 0.3 percent. In December, personal income decreased $5.0 billion, or 0.1 percent, DPI decreased $9.2 billion, or 0.1 percent, and PCE increased $42.8 billion, or 0.7 percent, based on revised estimates. 1998 1999 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. (Percent change from preceding month) Personal income, current dollars 0.3 0.4 0.9 -0.1 0.6 Disposable personal income: Current dollars .3 .4 .9 -.1 .7 Chained (1992) dollars .4 .2 .9 -.2 .5 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars .6 .4 .2 .7 .3 Chained (1992) dollars .7 .3 .1 .6 .1 The January and December changes in personal income were affected by a number of special factors. The January change was boosted by cost-of-living adjustments to federal transfer payment programs, by changes to the Earned Income Credit Program and by the Child Tax Credit Program, by pay raises for federal civilian and military personnel, and by subsidy payments to farmers. The January change was reduced by program changes affecting personal contributions for social insurance and by lump-sum social security benefit payments that had boosted December personal income. The December decrease was caused by one-time farm subsidy payments that boosted November personal income. Excluding these special factors, personal income increased $35.0 billion, or 0.5 percent, in January, and $19.6 billion, or 0.3 percent in December. Wages and salaries Private wage and salary disbursements increased $21.3 billion in January, compared with an increase of $16.0 billion in December. Goods-producing industries' payrolls increased $1.1 billion, compared with an increase of $4.9 billion; manufacturing payrolls increased $1.7 billion, compared with an increase of $0.7 billion. Distributive industries' payrolls increased $7.2 billion, compared with an increase of $2.7 billion. Service industries' payrolls increased $13.1 billion, compared with an increase of $8.4 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $8.6 billion, compared with an increase of $1.6 billion. Pay raises for federal civilian and military personnel added $6.0 billion to government payrolls in January. Other personal income Farm proprietors' income increased $0.6 billion in January, decreased $28.4 billion in December, and increased $26.7 billion in November. These changes reflect the pattern of subsidy payments made to farmers participating in the federal farm program. Rental income of persons increased $1.9 billion in January, decreased $5.0 billion in December, and increased $7.1 billion in November. These changes reflect the pattern of farm subsidy payments made to owners of leased farm land. Transfer payments increased $10.9 billion in January, compared with an increase of $5.7 billion in December. The January increase was boosted by 1.3-percent cost-of-living adjustments (COLA's) to social security benefits and several other transfer programs, by changes to the Earned Income Credit Program and by the Child Tax Credit Program. The COLA's added $6.3 billion to January transfer payments, and the Earned Income Credit Program and the Child Tax Credit together added $3.4 billion. The January increase in transfer payments was reduced by lump-sum social security benefits payments, which had added $3.7 billion to December transfer payments; these benefit payments resulted from a recalculation of the earnings base underlying the benefits. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $5.4 billion in January, the same increase as in December. Personal interest income decreased $0.2 billion, compared with a decrease of $0.8 billion. Personal dividend income increased $1.0 billion in January, the same increase as in December. Personal contributions for social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income -- increased $5.9 billion in January, compared with an increase of $1.3 billion in December. The January increase reflects the effect of an increase in the social security taxable wage base for employees and the self-employed (from $68,400 to $72,600), as well as the effect of an increase in supplementary medical insurance premiums. Personal taxes and disposable personal income Personal tax and nontax payments increased $0.1 billion in January, compared with an increase of $4.2 billion in December. In January, federal income tax payments were reduced by $5.7 billion, reflecting the provisions of the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 and the indexation provisions of current tax law. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal tax and nontax payments -- increased $45.1 billion, or 0.7 percent, in January, in contrast to a decrease of $9.2 billion, or 0.1 percent, in December. Personal outlays and personal saving Personal outlays -- PCE, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net) -- increased $19.6 billion in January, compared with an increase of $45.2 billion in December. PCE increased $17.1 billion, compared with an increase of $42.8 billion. Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $8.8 billion in January, in contrast to a negative $16.7 billion in December. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 0.1 percent in January, in contrast to a negative 0.3 percent in December. Chained (1992) dollar estimates Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.5 percent in January, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in December. Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.1 percent in January, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent in December. Purchases of durable goods decreased 1.9 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.6 percent; motor vehicle purchases more than accounted for the January decrease and accounted for most of the December increase. Purchases of nondurable goods increased less than 0.1 percent in January, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in December. Purchases of services increased 0.6 percent, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent. Revisions Estimates have been revised for October through December. Changes in personal income, current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar PCE for November and December -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below. The revisions to personal income and to DPI for November and for December primarily reflect more complete information on the size and timing of farm subsidy payments included in farm proprietors' income and in rental income of persons. Revisions for October were small. Change from preceding month November December Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised (Dollars) (Percent) (Dollars) (Percent) Personal income: Current dollars . . 29.9 62.8 0.4 0.9 38.4 -5.0 0.5 -0.1 Disposable personal income: Current dollars . . 22.7 56.5 .4 .9 31.2 -9.2 .5 -.1 Chained (1992) dollars 16.1 46.7 .3 .9 24.1 -13.3 .4 -.2 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars . . 9.0 10.4 .2 .2 45.5 42.8 .8 .7 Chained (1992) dollars 4.1 6.1 .1 .1 36.8 32.8 .7 .6 * * * BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; selected articles from the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available on BEA's web site: http://www.bea.gov STAT-USA maintains an electronic bulletin board (EBB) and an Internet site, which contain BEA estimates, BEA news releases, and the Survey of Current Business. The information available through STAT-USA is often more detailed and more timely than that available from other sources. To subscribe to STAT-USA's World Wide Web system, go to http://www.stat-usa.gov. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT-USA's Internet information are $50.00 for 3 months or $150.00 for 1 year. For further information, call (202) 482-1986. Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers: (202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product 606-5303 Personal income and outlays 606-5362 Summary of international transactions Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The printed Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C. 20402. First class mail: Annual subscription $88.00 domestic. Second class mail: Annual subscription $39.00 domestic, $48.75 foreign; single issue $14.00 domestic, $17.50 foreign. * * * Next release -- Personal Income and Outlays for February will be released on April 1, 1999, at 8:30 A.M. EST. Table 1. -- Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ----------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1998 Aug. 98 Sep. 98 Oct. 98r Nov. 98r Dec. 98r Jan. 99p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income..................... 6,784.0 7,125.1 7,164.1 7,184.6 7,213.8 7,276.6 7,271.6 7,316.8 Wage and salary disbursements..... 3,889.8 4,148.7 4,183.4 4,194.3 4,216.9 4,239.8 4,257.4 4,287.4 Private industries.............. 3,225.7 3,459.4 3,490.6 3,499.2 3,519.5 3,540.4 3,556.4 3,577.7 Goods-producing industries.... 975.0 1,026.9 1,030.6 1,032.7 1,034.3 1,036.4 1,041.3 1,042.4 Manufacturing............... 719.5 751.5 752.4 756.4 754.5 753.4 754.1 755.8 Distributive industries....... 879.8 938.4 946.3 949.6 952.3 957.9 960.6 967.8 Service industries............ 1,370.8 1,494.0 1,513.8 1,516.9 1,533.0 1,546.1 1,554.5 1,567.6 Government...................... 664.2 689.3 692.8 695.1 697.4 699.4 701.0 709.6 Other labor income................ 392.9 406.9 408.3 409.2 410.1 411.0 411.9 413.3 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj........................... 551.2 576.9 574.7 576.4 582.5 613.9 590.9 596.9 Farm............................ 35.5 28.5 25.2 23.5 25.3 52.0 23.6 24.2 Nonfarm......................... 515.8 548.5 549.5 552.9 557.2 561.9 567.3 572.7 Rental income of persons with CCAdj........................... 158.2 162.8 163.5 164.4 165.2 172.3 167.3 169.2 Personal dividend income.......... 260.3 263.1 262.8 263.7 264.7 265.7 266.7 267.7 Personal interest income.......... 747.3 764.8 769.4 770.7 770.7 770.2 769.4 769.2 Transfer payments to persons...... 1,110.4 1,149.2 1,151.8 1,156.6 1,156.2 1,157.8 1,163.5 1,174.4 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits. 565.9 586.5 588.5 590.4 588.8 589.6 593.2 597.0 Government unemployment insurance benefits............ 19.9 19.5 19.4 19.6 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.6 Other........................... 524.6 543.2 544.0 546.6 548.1 548.7 550.7 557.8 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance................ 326.2 347.4 349.9 350.8 352.5 354.2 355.5 361.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2. -- The Disposition of Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1997 1998 Aug. 98 Sep. 98 Oct. 98r Nov. 98r Dec. 98r Jan. 99p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 6,784.0 7,125.1 7,164.1 7,184.6 7,213.8 7,276.6 7,271.6 7,316.8 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments........................... 989.0 1,098.1 1,110.8 1,112.4 1,118.8 1,125.1 1,129.3 1,129.4 Equals: Disposable personal income... 5,795.1 6,027.0 6,053.3 6,072.2 6,095.0 6,151.5 6,142.3 6,187.4 Less: Personal outlays............... 5,674.1 5,998.0 6,036.4 6,073.7 6,101.6 6,113.8 6,159.0 6,178.6 Personal consumption expenditures... 5,493.7 5,805.6 5,843.1 5,879.2 5,904.5 5,914.9 5,957.7 5,974.8 Interest paid by persons............ 161.5 172.5 173.3 174.5 176.8 178.5 181.0 183.4 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 18.9 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4 Equals: Personal saving.............. 121.0 29.0 16.9 -1.4 -6.7 37.7 -16.7 8.8 Addenda: Disposable personal income: Chained (1992) dollars 1/........... 5,183.1 5,348.1 5,363.0 5,382.3 5,393.1 5,439.8 5,426.5 5,455.9 Per capita: Current dollars................... 21,633 22,301 22,376 22,427 22,493 22,671 22,609 22,761 Chained (1992) dollars............ 19,349 19,789 19,825 19,879 19,903 20,048 19,974 20,070 Population (thousands).............. 267,880 270,257 270,522 270,757 270,973 271,336 271,681 271,841 Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income ......... 2.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.6 -0.3 0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. 1/ Disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars equals the current-dollar figure divided by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 3. -- Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1997 1998 Aug. 98 Sep. 98 Oct. 98r Nov. 98r Dec. 98r Jan. 99p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 358.8 341.1 30.4 20.5 29.2 62.8 -5.0 45.2 Wage and salary disbursements........ 258.7 258.9 29.8 10.9 22.6 22.9 17.6 30.0 Private industries................ 235.5 233.7 27.2 8.6 20.3 20.9 16.0 21.3 Goods-producing industries...... 66.0 51.9 9.7 2.1 1.6 2.1 4.9 1.1 Manufacturing................. 44.9 32.0 8.6 4.0 -1.9 -1.1 0.7 1.7 Distributive industries......... 56.5 58.6 4.8 3.3 2.7 5.6 2.7 7.2 Service industries.............. 112.9 123.2 12.8 3.1 16.1 13.1 8.4 13.1 Government........................ 23.3 25.1 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.6 8.6 Other labor income.................. 5.9 14.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj............................. 23.5 25.7 -2.5 1.7 6.1 31.4 -23.0 6.0 Farm.............................. -3.4 -7.0 -1.6 -1.7 1.8 26.7 -28.4 0.6 Nonfarm........................... 27.0 32.7 -1.0 3.4 4.3 4.7 5.4 5.4 Rental income of persons with CCAdj............................. 8.0 4.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 7.1 -5.0 1.9 Personal dividend income............ 12.1 2.8 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Personal interest income............ 27.9 17.5 2.1 1.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 -0.2 Transfer payments to persons........ 42.4 38.8 1.4 4.8 -0.4 1.6 5.7 10.9 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits... 27.9 20.6 0.5 1.9 -1.6 0.8 3.6 3.8 Government unemployment insurance benefits.............. -2.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Other............................. 16.6 18.6 1.1 2.6 1.5 0.6 2.0 7.1 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance.................. 19.9 21.2 2.2 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.3 5.9 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments............................ 98.5 109.1 8.8 1.6 6.4 6.3 4.2 0.1 Equals: Disposable personal income.... 260.4 231.9 21.6 18.9 22.8 56.5 -9.2 45.1 Less: Personal outlays................ 297.9 323.9 26.9 37.3 27.9 12.2 45.2 19.6 Personal consumption expenditures... 278.0 311.9 25.4 36.1 25.3 10.4 42.8 17.1 Interest paid by persons............ 17.9 11.0 1.4 1.2 2.3 1.7 2.5 2.4 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Equals: Personal saving............... -37.5 -92.0 -5.3 -18.3 -5.3 44.4 -54.4 25.5 Addendum: Disposable personal income, chained (1992) dollars.......... 140.1 165.0 15.9 19.3 10.8 46.7 -13.3 29.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 4. -- Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1998 Aug. 98 Sep. 98 Oct. 98r Nov. 98r Dec. 98r Jan. 99p ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 5,493.7 5,805.6 5,843.1 5,879.2 5,904.5 5,914.9 5,957.7 5,974.8 Durable goods....................... 673.0 722.9 715.4 733.8 743.3 737.8 761.9 746.2 Nondurable goods.................... 1,600.6 1,662.3 1,669.4 1,670.8 1,683.2 1,691.3 1,697.6 1,702.5 Services............................ 3,220.1 3,420.4 3,458.2 3,474.7 3,478.0 3,485.8 3,498.2 3,526.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 4,913.5 5,151.6 5,176.8 5,211.2 5,224.5 5,230.6 5,263.4 5,268.4 Durable goods....................... 668.6 735.3 729.8 751.8 761.8 757.6 784.6 769.7 Nondurable goods.................... 1,486.3 1,543.9 1,546.6 1,549.3 1,558.0 1,567.1 1,568.5 1,568.8 Services............................ 2,761.5 2,879.5 2,905.4 2,917.5 2,914.1 2,915.0 2,922.8 2,939.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Implicit price deflators (Index numbers, 1992 = 100) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 111.81 112.69 112.87 112.82 113.01 113.08 113.19 113.41 Durable goods....................... 100.66 98.32 98.03 97.60 97.57 97.39 97.11 96.95 Nondurable goods.................... 107.69 107.67 107.94 107.84 108.04 107.93 108.23 108.52 Services............................ 116.61 118.78 119.03 119.10 119.35 119.58 119.69 119.96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change from preceding period ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 278.0 311.9 25.4 36.1 25.3 10.4 42.8 17.1 Durable goods....................... 29.7 49.9 8.0 18.4 9.5 -5.5 24.1 -15.7 Nondurable goods.................... 61.4 61.7 -0.5 1.4 12.4 8.1 6.3 4.9 Services............................ 186.9 200.3 17.8 16.5 3.3 7.8 12.4 27.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 161.1 238.1 19.4 34.4 13.3 6.1 32.8 5.0 Durable goods....................... 42.5 66.7 10.5 22.0 10.0 -4.2 27.0 -14.9 Nondurable goods.................... 35.4 57.6 -4.6 2.7 8.7 9.1 1.4 0.3 Services............................ 84.8 118.0 13.9 12.1 -3.4 0.9 7.8 16.6 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 5. -- Percent Change From Preceding Period in Selected Series -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1997 1998 Aug. 98 Sep. 98 Oct. 98r Nov. 98r Dec. 98r Jan. 99p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on current dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 5.6 5.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9 -0.1 0.6 Disposable personal income............ 4.7 4.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9 -0.1 0.7 Personal consumption expenditures..... 5.3 5.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.3 Durable goods....................... 4.6 7.4 1.1 2.6 1.3 -0.7 3.3 -2.1 Nondurable goods.................... 4.0 3.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 Services............................ 6.2 6.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on chained (1992) dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disposable personal income............ 2.8 3.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.9 -0.2 0.5 Personal consumption expenditures..... 3.4 4.8 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.1 Durable goods....................... 6.8 10.0 1.5 3.0 1.3 -0.5 3.6 -1.9 Nondurable goods.................... 2.4 3.9 -0.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 Services............................ 3.2 4.3 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.